Twins Video
In some ways, the 2023 Minnesota Twins were among the most polarizing Twins squads in recent memory. On one hand, the team led the American League in home runs, but on the other, they struck out 1,654 times, more than any other team in major-league history. They embodied the “all-or-nothing” approach, and it paid off, as the team began to heat up late in the summer and into the fall. Although we’re only a handful of games into the season, do the 2024 batted-ball numbers infer a potential shift in team approach, or has the offense just been bad?
The “launch angle revolution” is a recent trend that suggests hitting the ball with an optimal launch angle between 15 and 35 degrees results in more home runs. Since this discovery, teams and players have been adjusting and tweaking swings to produce more long balls. The 2023 Twins ranked fourth in MLB in average launch angle, at 14 degrees. This directly correlates with the team’s success in hitting home runs, and helps explain why the 2024 Twins have sputtered in the category thus far.
Currently, the Twins rank second-to-last in MLB in average launch angle, at just 8.6 degrees. They're dead last with two homers, failing to hit one for more than four full games' worth of time between Royce Lewis's first-inning dinger on Opening Day and Ryan Jeffers's telling blow late in Wednesday's tilt in Milwaukee. No other team has fewer than four home runs on the young season. Five clubs are already in double digits.
The interesting thing about these numbers is that the Twins, so far, haven’t shown any positive tradeoff to the low launch angle. While they rank sixth-lowest in the league in total strikeouts, they rank second-to-last in plate appearances, meaning they have had fewer opportunities to strike out. On a rate basis, they fall in the middle of the pack, even with contact-happy Manuel Margot added to the mix and guys like Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo gone. I'm not sold that this is a matter of intentional trading of lift for contact.
Ryan Jeffers and Willi Castro are the most noticeable players contributing to the team's drop in launch angle. Throughout his relatively young MLB career, Jeffers has hovered right in the sweet spot between 15 and 20 degrees, which has led to his success at the plate. That's changed dramatically this year, though obviously, he finally got the bottom half of a ball on Wednesday. Before that swing, Jeffers had put all of his batted balls on the ground for the season.
Castro had a career year in 2023, which solidified his role with the team for 2024. He’s had a rough go at the plate to begin the season, though, with a .425 OPS through his first 20 plate appearances. Like Jeffers, Castro has also shown a dramatic drop in launch angle this year, which currently sits at -14 degrees, down from 15.1 degrees in 2023. Unlike Jeffers, Castro does run well, so this could indicate a “stay on top of the ball” approach that he is still adjusting to early in the year.
It's too early to make any bold assumptions about a complete overhaul in the Twins’ approach at the plate, but when a team goes from near the top of the league in launch angle to the very bottom, it’s worth noting. The 2023 Twins struggled to produce much of anything offensively early in the year as well, so while it’s far too early to press the panic button on the 2024 offense, it is something to keep an eye on. The Twins have enough power in their lineup to contribute the early struggles to another slow start, but if the trend continues over the opening month, it could indicate a shift in approach at the plate.
Slow start, or early signs of a new approach implementation? What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!







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