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After a spring training in which we got to see a healthy Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis, one-third of that trio was taken away less than three full innings into the season. Lewis started the year off on a high note, with a home run against the Kansas City Royals, but one at-bat later, he was hobbling off the field. Likely out for months rather than weeks, his presence in the lineup won’t be the one to right the ship this time around.
Rocco Baldelli watched his veteran-laden group rack up a ridiculous 0-for-24 with runners in scoring position in games against the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers. A depleted bullpen has held serve, despite being without key members such as Jhoan Durán and Caleb Thielbar. Still, the team hasn't hit their stride over the first seven games.
The Guardians have lost ace Shane Bieber for the season, but they're off to a strong start in the standings. The Royals think they’re good, and have started above .500. The Tigers might actually be good, and have rushed out to a 6-3 start. Burying themselves early isn’t the way Minnesota wants to go about this. The division isn't waiting around for them to get in gear.
Here are the three most problematic developments from the first handful of Twins tilts this season.
Max Kepler
If this seems like it is getting old, it’s because it is. Kepler started last season 2-for-22, and he owned an untenable .623 OPS 39 games into the season. The tear he went on the rest of the way might have made you think he finally abandoned a previous, broken process, but it is once again rearing its head.
When Kepler is playing poorly, it’s because he doesn’t consistently get lift on the baseball and rolls pitches over with weak contact. Putting the ball on the ground is a natural result of how his swing works, but it’s not a successful way to live at the major league level.
Yes, it’s 20 at-bats this time around, but he has one hit and a 6/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Nothing about the approach has carried over what changed last year, and there are all sorts of problems with his exit velocities and barrel rates once again.
Failed Trajectories
Minnesota isn’t a team solely built around power. That's a misnomer that still stems from the 2019 Bomba Squad. Yes, they were a solid hitting home run team in 2023, and they struck out way too much, but it isn’t a true all-or-nothing approach.
The team does, however, focus on lifting the ball to the pull field whenever the opportunity arises. There aren’t hits on ground balls in the major leagues, just like popping the ball up is never going to create anything but outs. However, the Twins are failing in that endeavor early, as they're among the bottom four teams in average launch angle across the league. Regardless of their exit velocities, the path in which they impact the baseball leaves almost no room for success.
Without getting into specific analytics for either launch angle or exit velocities, it boils down to decisions that produce outcomes destined to fail. Whether relying on advance scouting or seeking individual pitches within an at-bat, hitters aren’t making nearly enough hard contact, and when they are, the ball isn't getting enough air under it.
Death by Papercuts (Utility Overload)
No one was expecting Willi Castro to start every day, and Kyle Farmer rotating in was supposed to be less frequent and less necessary than this. Then, Lewis got injured, and everything went out the window. Rather than calling up José Miranda to play third base, the Twins turned to Austin Martin for his debut. Baldelli has a bench full of guys who are only realistically expected to perform in the most ideal conditions.
Of the bunch, Castro is the one who could have some real upside as a regular, given his performance in 2023 and the outlier situation that brought him to Minnesota following a release from Detroit. Still, though, rolling out Castro, Farmer, or Martin in constant platoon situations doesn’t integrate any of them into the lineup consistently, and they are all stretched as regulars.
Without credible options at a handful of roster spots, the front office and coaching staff are largely reduced to hoping the rolled dice land in their favor.
Threading the needle like the Twins are attempting to do this season is a difficult ask. It’s something that additional resources committed to the roster may have avoided. It’s also something that could break back their way as the season finds its rhythm, but for now, there's real risk afoot.
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- glunn, nclahammer, saviking and 1 other
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