Is Willi Castro a Better Defensive Option at Third Base Than Kyle Farmer?

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Minnesota Twins' immediate response to Royce Lewis's Opening Day injury was to move Kyle Farmer to third base. Although that was the right decision at the moment, the team might have a better defensive option on the 26-man roster.

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

When starting third baseman Royce Lewis injured his right quadriceps aggressively rounding second base (with hopes to score) on a double down the left-field line by star shortstop Carlos Correa, manager Rocco Baldelli's immediate response was to shift second baseman Kyle Farmer to third and insert left-handed hitter Edouard Julien into the game at second. Turning to Julien was antithetical to the platoon-happy lineup the Twins deployed against rising star left-handed starting pitcher Cole Ragans. That said, they had no other choice.

After Julien replaced Lewis in the third inning, the team's bench consisted of left-handed outfielder Matt Wallner, left-handed first baseman/designated hitter Alex Kirilloff, and right-handed backup catcher Christian Vázquez. Wallner, Kirilloff, and Vázquez all are basically unable to play third base, and the only other player on the field who could (Willi Castro) was stuck in left field with right-handed platoon mate Manuel Margot assigned to designated hitter duties. The Twins reacted to Lewis's injury as best they could, and although it ruined their initial plans for Ragans to face a near-exclusively right-handed lineup, their adjustments paid off, and the team concluded Opening Day with a 4-1 victory over Kansas City. 

Although the Twins handled Lewis's unexpected injury well at the moment, their course of action during his longish expected absence should deviate from what is currently perceived to be the plan. The Twins could hand Farmer the everyday job at third base until Lewis returns, and few would bat an eye. The former Cincinnati Reds starting shortstop is a steady veteran who can provide a meaningful sense of low-floor consistency (offensively and defensively) at the hot corner. This type of player possesses a lot of value, specifically this early in the season, but what if how Farmer is perceived doesn't match reality?

As noted earlier, Castro was relegated to left field on Opening Day, with Margot restricted to designated hitter and Wallner providing less value against left-handed pitchers. Leaving Castro in left field was the right decision, given the way the Twins lineup was constructed and the specific bench restrictions in place. Farmer deserves to receive some playing time at third base during Lewis's absence. However, Castro is the better option, and the Twins should hand him the bulk of the newfound opportunities. 

Last season, Castro played 219 innings at third base. During his time at the hot corner, the 26-year-old utility player had 52 attempts straight up, 14 toward the shortstop/third base hole, and 12 close to the line. Here is Castro's success rate compared to his estimated success rate in his attempts:

• Straight up: 81% success rate; 74% estimated success rate
• Toward the SS/3B hole: 64% success rate; 70% estimated success rate
• Close to the line: 67% success rate; 68% estimated success rate

Castro outperformed his estimated success rate straight up, performed below his estimated success rate toward the SS/3B hole, and nearly matched his estimated success rate close to the line. Showing exceptional range, Castro generated 3 Outs Above Average (OAA) at Baseball Savant, where 0 OAA is average. 

In 2023, Farmer played 276 1/3 innings at the hot corner, accounting for 57 2/3 more than Castro. The 33-year-old infielder had 33 attempts straight up, 30 close to the line, and 15 toward the shortstop/third base hole. So, despite playing nearly six-and-a-half more games at the position, Farmer received the same number of attempts at third base as Castro, with 78. Here is Farmer's success rate compared to his estimated success rate in his attempts:

• Straight up: 76% success rate; 74% estimated success rate
• Close to the line: 73% success rate; 74% estimated success rate
• Toward the SS/3B hole: 53% success rate; 66% estimated success rate

Farmer outperformed his expected success rate straight up, nearly matched his estimated success rate close to the line, and significantly underperformed his estimated success rate toward the shortstop/third base hole. Showing slightly below-average range, Farmer generated -2 OAA at Baseball Savant. Farmer performed well on balls hit to him and down the line, but struggled mightily on balls hit toward the 5.5 hole, performing 13 percentage points worse than expected. 

Farmer showed more of the same tendencies against the Royals on Thursday. After replacing Lewis at third base in the bottom of the third inning, Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino chopped a weak two-out dribbler against starting pitcher Pablo López, toward Farmer at third. Farmer fielded the chopper and tossed it over to first baseman Carlos Santana to end the inning. Easy enough. Two innings later, Kansas City second baseman Adam Frazier chopped a similar ground ball toward Farmer, yet the result was less favorable for the utility infielder. Farmer bobbled the ball in his glove, allowing Frazier (who had a 31st-percentile sprint speed in 2023) to reach base safely on an infield single. 

Although Frazier's hit was inconsequential, these are the types of plays more skilled and agile third basemen with stronger arms (like Lewis and Castro) are more prone to making. Farmer immediately redeemed himself, fielding an almost two-hop groundball straight up from Royals designated hitter Nelson Velázquez and executing a flawless double play with second baseman Julien. Farmer isn't a bad defender, but his limited range and weaker arm make the non-routine plays at the hot corner more of a struggle. Castro would provide more defensive value at the position, having a stronger arm and more range. 

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Do you agree that Willi Castro should be the primary third baseman in Lewis's absence? Join the discussion with a comment below.

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[Karbo]

I agree. Castro should get the bulk of time at 3rd, unless they call up someone like Martin to take a look at.

[Dman]

They will both get their chances at third.  I think it will depend on who fits best in the lineup more than anything else.  It would also depend on where they feel they need Castro the most.

Defensively I do like Castro better at third, but Farmer was kept on to be a lefty killer and fill in for injuries so he will be out there as he is good enough defensively to be trusted in all the infield spots.  We'll see how they mix and match going forward.

[TopGunn#22]

Well, I agree Castro would be my choice at 3B because he's a more dangerous offensive player than Farmer and is a good fit hitting out of the #9 hole.  I wouldn't say he was "relegated" to LF.  Castro is probably the best LF on the Twins roster.  The fact that he's probably better at 3B than Farmer also speaks highly of his solid glove and versatility.  

If I was calling the shots for the Twins, my next move would be to promote Austin Martin after Lewis is placed on the I.L.  Martin can be the RH platoon with Wallner in LF and still provide depth at 2B.  It's time to get Martin up to the major league club anyway.  How about a couple of classic piranhas hitting 8th and 9th in the lineup in Castro and Martin.  

The obvious callup would have been Brooks Lee but with the back issues let's give Martin a chance.  Miranda isn't really a logical callup with Santana and Kirilloff.  One or BOTH of them would have to be injured to see Miranda get the call.  

On another note:  Wasn't it nice to see Julien come off the bench, step in against a tough lefty like Ragans, and proceed to line a shot up the middle for a base hit?  Looks like the hard work the kid put in during the off season paid off.  

[High heat]

Farmer and Castro will likely spit time at 3B.  Farmer will still get time at 2B and Castro will still get time in LF.

Julian will likely get more time in the lineup against lefty’s. 

[stringer bell]

I like Castro better at third. Over and above the numbers here, Castro had zero errors as a third baseman last year, principally because he has the arm to get an out even with a bobble. 

[USAFChief]

If the Twins end up platooning Castro and Farmer at 3rd, Castro will get the bulk of the playing time. But it'll be because he can bat left handed, not because of defense.

BTW, he's not a better defender than Farmer.

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Well, I agree Castro would be my choice at 3B because he's a more dangerous offensive player than Farmer and is a good fit hitting out of the #9 hole.  I wouldn't say he was "relegated" to LF.  Castro is probably the best LF on the Twins roster.  The fact that he's probably better at 3B than Farmer also speaks highly of his solid glove and versatility.  

If I was calling the shots for the Twins, my next move would be to promote Austin Martin after Lewis is placed on the I.L.  Martin can be the RH platoon with Wallner in LF and still provide depth at 2B.  It's time to get Martin up to the major league club anyway.  How about a couple of classic piranhas hitting 8th and 9th in the lineup in Castro and Martin.  

The obvious callup would have been Brooks Lee but with the back issues let's give Martin a chance.  Miranda isn't really a logical callup with Santana and Kirilloff.  One or BOTH of them would have to be injured to see Miranda get the call.  

On another note:  Wasn't it nice to see Julien come off the bench, step in against a tough lefty like Ragans, and proceed to line a shot up the middle for a base hit?  Looks like the hard work the kid put in during the off season paid off.  

I meant relegated in the sense that 3B is a more demanding position than LF on the defensive spectrum. But yes, I suppose "assigned" or "glued" could have been a better way to say that lol. Also, I agree with your Martin point. He would be a fun insertion to the lineup. 

[Mydaughterhastwins]

The analytical stuff makes me a little nuts cause I'm old, but I realize a story has to be written and I mostly agree with the solutions.  That being said, my real issue is, why is there always an off day on the second day of the season!!  Why God Why?

[Doctor Gast]

IMO it's close, IMO Farmer can handle the smokers better yet Castro has more range. If Farmer is primary 3Bman then Martin is brought up. Martin would do a great job at 2B & hitting lead-off against LHPs but in the long haul Martin is more needed in the OF, the Twins have failed to give him the needed experience out there. I was torn between bringing Martin or not as writing this post I decided because Margot has blocked Martin, Martin can take a break and play some 2B.

Therefore I'd stick with Farmer as primary 3Bman & have Castro fill in.

[Cody Schoenmann]

11 minutes ago, Mydaughterhastwins said:

The analytical stuff makes me a little nuts cause I'm old, but I realize a story has to be written and I mostly agree with the solutions.  That being said, my real issue is, why is there always an off day on the second day of the season!!  Why God Why?

To boil it down, Outs Above Average (OAA) judges an infielder's ability based on how far they need to travel to reach the ball ("the intercept point") and how much time they take to get there. Essentially, OAA measures a fielder's range. Other metrics are used to determine arm strength, ability to field, etc.

You can find more info at MLB.com's glossary.

Edited March 29, 2024 by Cody Schoenmann

[nicksaviking]

I'm not sure about defensively, but Farmer is gone after this year for sure and Castro showed promise offensively, particularly with his increased ability to draw walks. If I had to give one of them more at bats, I'd give them to Castro on the off chance he can pivot into another Eduardo Escobar.

[Road trip]

 

37 minutes ago, Mydaughterhastwins said:

The analytical stuff makes me a little nuts cause I'm old, but I realize a story has to be written and I mostly agree with the solutions.  That being said, my real issue is, why is there always an off day on the second day of the season!!  Why God Why?

I think it is because bad weather for opening day is very common, especially in northern climates.  This gives MLB the ability to have a backup "opening day" for all the fans that bought tickets for the opener (often a sellout, always a big crowd) instead of making the scheduled game 2 the accidental default opener (rarely even close to a sellout except in baseball-crazy fan bases).

You'll notice that Philly and the Mets delayed their home opener yesterday due to weather, and are playing it today.  Meanwhile, the warm weather/domed stadiums were safely scheduled for game 2 of the season today, as game 1 was pretty much guaranteed to happen on schedule (Tampa, Houston, Seattle, etc).

[Mike Sixel]

58 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not sure about defensively, but Farmer is gone after this year for sure and Castro showed promise offensively, particularly with his increased ability to draw walks. If I had to give one of them more at bats, I'd give them to Castro on the off chance he can pivot into another Eduardo Escobar.

This. All day this. Put martin in left. 

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, High heat said:

Farmer and Castro will likely spit time at 3B.  Farmer will still get time at 2B and Castro will still get time in LF.

Julian will likely get more time in the lineup against lefty’s. 

I like Julien getting more opportunity to see LHP.

[bean5302]

From an athleticism standpoint, Castro will be superior to Farmer at any position other than catcher. 
Castro arm 88.8mph, sprint 28.6 ft/sec, range OAA +2, career 3B UZR above average
Farmer arm 80.1mph, sprint 26.5 ft/sec, range OAA +2, career 3B UZR neutral, but he's lost a ton of speed.

Neither Castro, nor Farmer have a lot of experience playing 3B, and neither one of them have been great at it. With repetition comes familiarity. Repetition breeds instinctive play where the player really doesn't even have to think about it. They know the order of operations. Where to stand after catching/throwing the ball. Which plays they can make, which plays they can't, etc. Digging through the history, Farmer's probably a tick better at reaction time and positioning.

Plusses and minuses to each playing the position. Which player getting daily reps helps the Twins the most? Castro's also an outfielder and they benched Wallner for Castro yesterday, opting to put the poor hitting Margot at DH.

I'd prefer to see Castro in an every day role to get a better feel for his bat. Was last year an aberration at the plate or is it a trend he can sustain? I think everybody knows what to expect of Farmer.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Mydaughterhastwins said:

The analytical stuff makes me a little nuts cause I'm old, but I realize a story has to be written and I mostly agree with the solutions.  That being said, my real issue is, why is there always an off day on the second day of the season!!  Why God Why?

Because of attendance.. the long history of baseball has shown if opening day is moved back one day to weather the crowd will come. If it is just made up as another day and the second game of the season is opening day the crowds are not as large 

[bean5302]

 

17 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I like Julien getting more opportunity to see LHP.

Julien was totally inept vs. left handed pitching last year and his splits in the minors were pretty awful, too. At the plate vs. lefties last year, Julien's walk rate dropped from against RHP 17.2% to 4.2% against LHP. He also had an 80% ground ball rate vs. LHP last year. Now, we're only talking about 1/2 the sample size needed to start really stabilizing, but Julien was totally and completely overwhelmed against lefties.

[IndianaTwin]

Bringing in Julien and shifting Farmer to third wasn’t the only choice. They could have put Wallner in left and moved Castro to third. 

(Not arguing for or against either choice, just saying that what they did wasn’t the only viable option.)

[Parfigliano]

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

Julien was totally inept vs. left handed pitching last year and his splits in the minors were pretty awful, too. At the plate vs. lefties last year, Julien's walk rate dropped from against RHP 17.2% to 4.2% against LHP. He also had an 80% ground ball rate vs. LHP last year. Now, we're only talking about 1/2 the sample size needed to start really stabilizing, but Julien was totally and completely overwhelmed against lefties.

You said it small sample.  Give him a chance.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Farmer is probably a better 3B, but he will start vs LHP and Willi will start against RHP. I'd rather bat Julien all the time than Farmer. 

Seems pretty simple to me. 

[PatPfund]

The OP is a solid argument for seeing Castro more at 3B, though I expect there will be a fair amount of Farmer there as well. I'd also call up Martin first. It is time, and (especially if Kepler is dinged up) the Twins need OF help more than infield help.

I strongly suspect Julien is also going to force more playing time very soon. He is a good athlete with the drive to improve his game where it is weakest; he's already shown it on the defensive side, and he put a focus on hitting lefties in the offseason. Last season's batting-against-LH-stats may soon be as useless as last season's first half defensive stats became to judging Julien's current defensive ability. But if not, Martin plays a decent 2B. (But I could also live with a Martin in LF, Byron in CF, Wallner in RF outfield in the short run with Castro playing more infield.)

[Major League Ready]

Defensive is pretty darn close between Farmer and Castro.  However, Castro was far better against RHP last year and Farmer was much better against LHP.  I suspect their playing time will be decided accordingly.  This also probably influences who they call up.  Martin makes sense because he can be the 4/5th OFer and platoon with Julien at 2B.

[bean5302]

54 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

You said it small sample.  Give him a chance.

How big of a sample size? His AA splits looked horrible, too, and he was below average against lefties even in the low minors.
2021 = .938 vs .831 (league average in A ball was about .725, A+ was about .740)
2022 = 1.031 vs .649 in 134 plate appearances (league average hitting in AA was about .750)

vs. LHP in 2022 at AA in 134 plate appearances
.210/.373/.276 OPS .649. 20.1% BB, 26.9% K, .066 ISO

vs. LHP in 2023 at AAA in 43 plate appearances
.333/.442/.361 OPS .803, 16.3% BB, 18.6% K, .028 ISO

vs LHP in 2023 at MLB in 48 plate apperances
.196/.229/.217 OPS .447. 4.2% BB, 33.3% K, .022 ISO

That's over 200 plate appearances at AA/AAA/MLB. Julien has utterly no power whatsoever against LHP and MLB pitchers don't miss the strike zone like MiLB pitchers do so Julien's BB rate vanishes. The likelihood Julien isn't going to be a black hole against LHP at the MLB level is very low.

I suspect he'll continue to get sporadic plate appearances against them, but there's not much reason to expect him to transform at the plate.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

If the Twins end up platooning Castro and Farmer at 3rd, Castro will get the bulk of the playing time. But it'll be because he can bat left handed, not because of defense.

BTW, he's not a better defender than Farmer.

So very true!!

Castro can play a decent 3B & he bats LH, so he’ll get a bunch of reps v. RH pitching. Since the game is dominated (as a %) by RH pitching, I think Castro plays quite often at 3B.

Farmer is the best defensive option at any 3 of the fielding positions on the dirt. He’ll play at 3rd a bit so Castro isn’t in line - up 100% of the time.

If Martin is the guy brought up, since he can play some CF as well as LF or even 2B if desired, Castro is principally on the IF for next 6-8 weeks.

[jkcarew]

Would Castro be better than Farmer?

Probably. 
In the same way that nuclear holocaust would probably be better than getting hit by an asteroid the size of Jupiter.

 

OK. That’s an overreaction. Probably.

It’s too soon, I’m in the grieving stage.

[jorgenswest]

The difference defensively between the two is marginal at best and the bat matters more at 3B. Play the better bat every game.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Defensive is pretty darn close between Farmer and Castro.  However, Castro was far better against RHP last year and Farmer was much better against LHP.  I suspect their playing time will be decided accordingly.  This also probably influences who they call up.  Martin makes sense because he can be the 4/5th OFer and platoon with Julien at 2B.

I think what it comes down to it who is getting more playing time due to that person not being flexible.  It probably comes down to Wallner vs Julien against LHP and at this point I'd probably pick Julien.  I believe in Wallner against lefties in the longterm but Julien is showing enough that's worth seeing more. 

Factoring that Castro is the more flexible player, outfield and speed, Farmer makes more sense to spot at third for a longer term.  I don't think the defense at third is that much of a factor as its pretty close. 

[jorgenswest]

12 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I think what it comes down to it who is getting more playing time due to that person not being flexible.  It probably comes down to Wallner vs Julien against LHP and at this point I'd probably pick Julien.  I believe in Wallner against lefties in the longterm but Julien is showing enough that's worth seeing more. 

Factoring that Castro is the more flexible player, outfield and speed, Farmer makes more sense to spot at third for a longer term.  I don't think the defense at third is that much of a factor as its pretty close. 

Farmer’s career OPS against right handed pitching is .658. I wouldn’t start him against right handed pitching. Castro may not be much better but he also adds speed when he is on base.

[Jocko87]

15 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Farmer’s career OPS against right handed pitching is .658. I wouldn’t start him against right handed pitching. Castro may not be much better but he also adds speed when he is on base.

A partial platoon probably does make some sense but I don't know what they value most.  If they want to hold Farmer back to pull Julien late then that's the way they would go.  That's why I say it matters more what other flexibility they lose, to me it's not so much a third base question.