Charlee Soto Looking to Break the Twins’ Trend with High School Pitchers

[Cody Christie]

Charlee Soto has turned heads this spring with his combination of stuff and presence on the mound. Can he break the Twins’ trend of poor-performing high school pitching prospects?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Drafting a teenage pitching prospect comes with plenty of pitfalls because of the development required to move from the low minors to the big leagues. Some pitchers drafted out of high school can go on to have extraordinary careers, while others will suffer injuries or poor performance before reaching the high minors. There is a particular wild card element with high school pitchers, and some organizations do a better job of getting value from these players, who are viewed as lottery tickets. 

The Twins selected Charlee Soto with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of high school in Florida. After signing with Minnesota for $2.48 million, the club decided not to have him make his professional debut as he worked at the team’s facilities in Fort Myers. In high school, he was a shortstop until the summer leading into his senior season, so evaluators believe he can repeat his delivery because of his infield throwing experience. His fastball has good movement and regularly hits in the upper 90s. He combines a powerful sinker, a hard slider, and a split-change to complete his pitch mix. His lack of experience as a full-time pitcher likely means the Twins will be patient with him so he can continue to refine his craft. 

So, how have the Twins done drafting and developing other high school arms?

2021 Draft: Chase Petty (26th overall)
Minnesota used their first-round pick in 2021 to draft Petty out of high school in New Jersey. He signed for $2.5 million and made two appearances with the FCL Twins during his professional debut. Leading into the 2022 season, the Twins traded him to the Reds for Sonny Gray, which worked out for both teams. Petty reached Double-A last season and posted a 1.72 ERA with a 1.15 WHP and 8.7 K/9. He is a borderline top-100 prospect who should move up national rankings with another solid season in the upper minors. Minnesota got two All-Star caliber seasons from Gray, and now they get the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft as compensation for his leaving. Perhaps the team will take another high school arm.

2013 Draft: Kohl Stewart (5th overall)
Stewart was an intriguing prospect when the Twins selected him as one of the top five picks. He had Division 1 scholarship offers to play football, but the Twins signed him for over $4.5 million to coax him away from that commitment. All three national rankings had him in their top 55 prospects entering the 2014 season, and he peaked as the 28th-ranked prospect by Baseball Prospectus entering the 2015 campaign. Stewart slowly worked through the Twins system but failed to miss enough bats to be truly effective, with a 6.7 K/9 in over 680 minor league innings. He pitched 62 innings with the Twins while combining for a 4.79 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He’s bounced around to multiple organizations in recent years but hasn’t pitched a professional inning since 2021 while dealing with injuries. 

2012 Draft: José Berríos (32nd overall)
Berríos is one of the team’s bright spots when drafting and developing a high school pitcher. Like Soto, the Twins used a supplemental first-round pick to draft Berríos. He signed for $1.55 million and quickly became one of baseball’s best pitching prospects. Entering the 2016 season, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus had him ranked as a top-20 prospect. During his Twins tenure, he was a two-time All-Star, posting a 4.08 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 1.23 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. At the 2021 trade deadline, the Twins traded Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays for a package that included Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. Both players finished last season at Triple-A and should debut in 2024. 

It will be multiple years before the Twins know if Soto is following in the footsteps of Berríos or going down the same path as Stewart. The current front office regime prefers to draft college arms, so Soto will be an interesting case study in the coming years. He has all the potential in the world, but a lot can go wrong between now and when he first steps on the mound at Target Field. 

What are your expectations for Soto in 2024? How aggressive will the Twins be with him this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Doctor Gast]

I expect good things from Soto. Since his arm is still developing I expect the Twins will take him slow, like they have with Raja.  I trust the Twins pitching development & the extra patience will pay dividends.

[Karbo]

I didn't think the Twins drafted Berrios. I thought he was a rule 5 or something like that.

[Karbo]

1 minute ago, Karbo said:

I didn't think the Twins drafted Berrios. I thought he was a rule 5 or something like that.

I had him confused with Santana. My bad.

[mikelink45]

Good essay, but I lack the scouting and predictive powers needed to answer your question.  I am wait and see.  For me he is over rated until I see a season in true competition.

[AlwaysinModeration]

67% hit rate is pretty good

[awmonahan]

I can't speak to Soto. I've only read reports and seen a handful of clips. He sounds like an exciting prospect, though. What interests me is that the FO has adapted its approach and taken both Petty and Soto within two years of each other, after previously and loudly prioritizing college arms. That's valuable draft capital. So something changed, to my mind. I'm curious to see how they do in developing them and if it becomes more apparent that it's based on market efficiencies, the coaching staff's ability, or a bit of both. 

[nicksaviking]

21 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

67% hit rate is pretty good

Yeah, I think Meatloaf made a song about these pitchers. Not sure we want to break the trend.

Petty hasn’t made it yet but even one win, one loss and one TBD is pretty good outcome.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

High school pitchers (or international signings of that age) are terribly difficult to wait for — especially for fans.  I remember waiting and waiting for Berrios, as he was the “next big thing” seemingly forever!.  Even if they are really good pitchers, it takes years for them to even hit AA, let alone the majors — and that assumes that they don’t get injured along the way.  Between building up innings and developing pitches, there are so many pitfalls to avoid and overcome.  All of that said, college pitchers are also far from a sure thing because they may or may not be developed well or properly.  I think that taking a few of each is a reasonable play as a draft strategy.  I certainly don’t have the statistics to back this up, but pitching seems to be much more difficult to draft than position players, but I don’t really see any way around the problem. 

[HerbieFan]

I coached HS baseball.  How on EARTH do you have a kid who can throw mid-90s and NOT have him pitching?! :)

[nova_twins]

The Twins haven't drafted many high school pitchers, so I'm not sure it's accurate to say they have a problem developing them. 

[Brandon]

Nit picking but Simeon Woods-Richardson has already debuted.  So he won’t be making his debut this season for the first time.

Also this is a good article.  The Twins don’t draft many high School pitchers for good reason.  A college pitcher is closer to the majors and more developed making them less costly with more success to develop.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, awmonahan said:

I can't speak to Soto. I've only read reports and seen a handful of clips. He sounds like an exciting prospect, though. What interests me is that the FO has adapted its approach and taken both Petty and Soto within two years of each other, after previously and loudly prioritizing college arms. That's valuable draft capital. So something changed, to my mind. I'm curious to see how they do in developing them and if it becomes more apparent that it's based on market efficiencies, the coaching staff's ability, or a bit of both. 

By results so far what they have drafted for college arms in the high rounds would indicate they have to try something different. 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, awmonahan said:

I can't speak to Soto. I've only read reports and seen a handful of clips. He sounds like an exciting prospect, though. What interests me is that the FO has adapted its approach and taken both Petty and Soto within two years of each other, after previously and loudly prioritizing college arms. That's valuable draft capital.

Don't forget Dylan Questad whom they took in the 5th round after snagging Soto; they had to overspend a little to sign him, so I guess they really wanted him.  Like Soto, he hasn't pitched yet; they clearly have a process in place for the young'uns.

Marco Raya from the very short 2020 draft is also a high school draftee who is very well regarding around these parts.  / edit - I see he was mentioned above, with a minor misspelling that caused me to not notice earlier.

[jorgenswest]

Seems like they have done pretty well. Kohl Stewart didn’t make it but Berrios has been an all star. Petty is on track to be a major leaguer. It seems like an irresponsible headline focused on the Twins. Is it honestly a Twins trend or failing?

Compare Berrios to other guys drafted 32. Are there any high school pitchers drafted in that slot that will have better careers? Compare him to his draft class. There are several that didn’t make it drafted before him. Anyone recall Ty Hensley, Lucas Sims or Nick Travieso?

Wouldn’t it be better to focus the title on just Soto or the challenge of going from high school to successful major leaguer?

 

[SaberNerd]

The current FO hasn't drafted many HS pitchers.  For the first 2 days, here is the list excluding last year.

Landon Leach, 2017 2nd

Blayne Enlow, 2017 3rd (way overslot, 1st round money)

Regi Grace, 2018 10th

Marco Raya, 2020 4th

Chase Petty, 2021 1st (traded for Gray before 1st full season)

 

Leach/Enlow were busts.  Raya looks really good.  Grace has been mediocre for a 10th rounder.  Not sure there are any insights to take from a sample size of 4 players in 6 years.  I'm also not sure how much Stewart/Berrios are applicable given that our organizational approach to pitching is completely different now.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

High school pitchers (or international signings of that age) are terribly difficult to wait for — especially for fans.  I remember waiting and waiting for Berrios, as he was the “next big thing” seemingly forever!.  Even if they are really good pitchers, it takes years for them to even hit AA, let alone the majors — and that assumes that they don’t get injured along the way.  Between building up innings and developing pitches, there are so many pitfalls to avoid and overcome.  All of that said, college pitchers are also far from a sure thing because they may or may not be developed well or properly.  I think that taking a few of each is a reasonable play as a draft strategy.  I certainly don’t have the statistics to back this up, but pitching seems to be much more difficult to draft than position players, but I don’t really see any way around the problem. 

Sure seems like HS draft pitchers blow a UCL out like clockwork within a year or two of the draft. Probably contributes to the feeling of wait. If a HS pitcher is going to be good, they generally move fast. Petty will probably stop in for a cup of coffee with the Reds this year if he pitches like he has been.

Avg. high school players 4-5 years
Avg. college players 3-4 years
Fast high school players 2-3 years
Fast college players 1-2 years
S-Rank HS = Pitcher Brandon Finnegan (93 days)
S-Rank College = 1B Nolan Schanuel (40 days), Pitcher Chris Sale (60 days)
 

[Mike Sixel]

HS pitchers rarely work for any team, this isn't a Twins issue at all. 

[Trov]

Chase petty may have put up decent numbers, but he pitched in 18 games and only 68 innings for average of 3.7 innings per start. In 2021 he actually pitched more innings per start as he came out of pen 5 times and averaged 3.9 innings per outing. 

He clearly had some injury concerns as he pitched 30 innings less than he did the year prior last year, however, he appears to have made a start each week. He averaged 15 pitches an inning, which is a good number.  I personally wonder why the scale back of innings?  Without following him more I wonder if he has a future of a top pen guy, not that is a bad thing for any pitcher, but when you are hoping for top starter it is a little disappointment.  Unless he builds and pitches more innings this next year I think he will be settling into a pen spot.

As for Soto hopefully he can be one of the few high school pitcher that does have a good MLB career.  Very few high school pitchers make it.  

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

I coached HS baseball.  How on EARTH do you have a kid who can throw mid-90s and NOT have him pitching?! :)

He was playing SS and pitching part time. Bz boy. 

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

I coached HS baseball.  How on EARTH do you have a kid who can throw mid-90s and NOT have him pitching?! :)

He was obviously pitching - he’s got a 4 pitch mix right?? Not sure if I’m misunderstanding you? He played some SS as well as being a Star Pitcher is my assumption. Hope he stays healthy enough to contribute in 2-3-4 more years…….he sure has a lot to learn about pitching at 18!

[nicksaviking]

7 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

I coached HS baseball.  How on EARTH do you have a kid who can throw mid-90s and NOT have him pitching?! :)

From my perspective, whatever the reason, the less wear and tear is the Twins gain.

[Gamblerssoftball]

Today's higher velocities and increased spin rates equals elevated stress on every pitch. Therefore, fewer pitches per outing is required if the team is interested in mitigating injuries and keeping a player available for use. Gone are the days of long outings for all but a very few select pitchers throughout baseball. High school pitchers are extremely risky draft picks, I think. 

[jkcarew]

I don’t think it just HS pitchers…but HS players in general.

It’s simply harder to project from the younger age and over a greater number of years. It’s harder to successfully predict the weather 5 days from now vs 2 days from now. More time for things to change and/or deviate from forecasted results.

But when a HS pitcher is drafted in the 1st/2nd rounds, it’s because the upside is SO high, that it warrants the higher fail rate. It seems like Soto fits that definition.

So for now, I’ll dream about him becoming one of the ones that came out ‘ok’ despite the odds being stacked against them: guys like Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Blake Snell, Zach Greinke, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia…

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

16 hours ago, Trov said:

Chase petty may have put up decent numbers, but he pitched in 18 games and only 68 innings for average of 3.7 innings per start. In 2021 he actually pitched more innings per start as he came out of pen 5 times and averaged 3.9 innings per outing. 

He clearly had some injury concerns as he pitched 30 innings less than he did the year prior last year, however, he appears to have made a start each week. 

As for Soto hopefully he can be one of the few high school pitcher that does have a good MLB career.  Very few high school pitchers make it.  

 Petty was having elbow soreness last year so they took it easy.  He has also dialed back on his fastball and now averaging in the 92-94 range.  He is still a very good pitcher shown by top 100 status,  but the ceiling is coming down a bit.   

As to the Twins philosophies,  I think they like the high upside of high school pitchers generally in the late 1st til about 3rd round - I feel last year was an exaggeration due to how deep the draft was and the fact the Questad was willing to signing for $500k.   You add in the fact we had a relatively empty pipeline when they got here it is not surprising they went more to the college pitching route to try and boost the pipeline more quickly with more developed pitchers.  

Early reports on Soto look good.  I am looking forward to game action from him.   He is fresh ball of clay with an arm that doesn't have a ton of mileage which is good and has some downside in that we don't know how much of a workload it can handle.  With his body type I am not too worried,  he appears to be very well put together.  

The pitching side of the farm is something I am very excited about.  I think there are a lot of quality arms at all levels and the cream will start to rise to the top.   

[gman]

For 2024 I expect Soto to spend time if not the whole year in the FCL. Maybe sometime at Ft Myers, would be advancement enough. Further than that and I think his prospect status would soar closer to the top of the lists.

[Mottee]

On 3/10/2024 at 7:05 PM, nova_twins said:

The Twins haven't drafted many high school pitchers, so I'm not sure it's accurate to say they have a problem developing them. It's definitely a mixed bag when it comes to high school pitching prospects, and the Twins seem to have experienced both ends of the spectrum. From Kohl Stewart's struggles to José Berríos's success, it's clear that drafting young arms can be a gamble. As for Charlee Soto, I'm cautiously optimistic. His background as a shortstop might give him a unique edge in terms of mechanics, and his pitch arsenal sounds promising. But as with any prospect, there's a long road ahead before we see him on the big stage. Speaking of which, I recently stumbled upon https://papersowl.com/examples/behavior-modification/ with some interesting essay examples about Behavior Modification. It's fascinating how behavioral psychology plays a role in player development, and perhaps there are insights there that could benefit Soto and other prospects like him.

True, it's not a huge sample size, but the track record with high school arms like Stewart hasn't been stellar. Berríos is the shining example, but he's more the exception than the rule. Hopefully, Soto breaks the mold.