Charlee Soto Looking to Break the Twins’ Trend with High School Pitchers

I expect good things from Soto. Since his arm is still developing I expect the Twins will take him slow, like they have with Raja.  I trust the Twins pitching development & the extra patience will pay dividends.

67% hit rate is pretty good

I can't speak to Soto. I've only read reports and seen a handful of clips. He sounds like an exciting prospect, though. What interests me is that the FO has adapted its approach and taken both Petty and Soto within two years of each other, after previously and loudly prioritizing college arms. That's valuable draft capital. So something changed, to my mind. I'm curious to see how they do in developing them and if it becomes more apparent that it's based on market efficiencies, the coaching staff's ability, or a bit of both. 

I coached HS baseball.  How on EARTH do you have a kid who can throw mid-90s and NOT have him pitching?! :)

The Twins haven't drafted many high school pitchers, so I'm not sure it's accurate to say they have a problem developing them. 

Nit picking but Simeon Woods-Richardson has already debuted.  So he won’t be making his debut this season for the first time.

Also this is a good article.  The Twins don’t draft many high School pitchers for good reason.  A college pitcher is closer to the majors and more developed making them less costly with more success to develop.

3 hours ago, awmonahan said:

I can't speak to Soto. I've only read reports and seen a handful of clips. He sounds like an exciting prospect, though. What interests me is that the FO has adapted its approach and taken both Petty and Soto within two years of each other, after previously and loudly prioritizing college arms. That's valuable draft capital. So something changed, to my mind. I'm curious to see how they do in developing them and if it becomes more apparent that it's based on market efficiencies, the coaching staff's ability, or a bit of both. 

By results so far what they have drafted for college arms in the high rounds would indicate they have to try something different. 

Seems like they have done pretty well. Kohl Stewart didn’t make it but Berrios has been an all star. Petty is on track to be a major leaguer. It seems like an irresponsible headline focused on the Twins. Is it honestly a Twins trend or failing?

Compare Berrios to other guys drafted 32. Are there any high school pitchers drafted in that slot that will have better careers? Compare him to his draft class. There are several that didn’t make it drafted before him. Anyone recall Ty Hensley, Lucas Sims or Nick Travieso?

Wouldn’t it be better to focus the title on just Soto or the challenge of going from high school to successful major leaguer?

The current FO hasn't drafted many HS pitchers.  For the first 2 days, here is the list excluding last year.

Landon Leach, 2017 2nd

Blayne Enlow, 2017 3rd (way overslot, 1st round money)

Regi Grace, 2018 10th

Marco Raya, 2020 4th

Chase Petty, 2021 1st (traded for Gray before 1st full season)

Leach/Enlow were busts.  Raya looks really good.  Grace has been mediocre for a 10th rounder.  Not sure there are any insights to take from a sample size of 4 players in 6 years.  I'm also not sure how much Stewart/Berrios are applicable given that our organizational approach to pitching is completely different now.

Chase petty may have put up decent numbers, but he pitched in 18 games and only 68 innings for average of 3.7 innings per start. In 2021 he actually pitched more innings per start as he came out of pen 5 times and averaged 3.9 innings per outing. 

He clearly had some injury concerns as he pitched 30 innings less than he did the year prior last year, however, he appears to have made a start each week. He averaged 15 pitches an inning, which is a good number.  I personally wonder why the scale back of innings?  Without following him more I wonder if he has a future of a top pen guy, not that is a bad thing for any pitcher, but when you are hoping for top starter it is a little disappointment.  Unless he builds and pitches more innings this next year I think he will be settling into a pen spot.

As for Soto hopefully he can be one of the few high school pitcher that does have a good MLB career.  Very few high school pitchers make it.  

5 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

I coached HS baseball.  How on EARTH do you have a kid who can throw mid-90s and NOT have him pitching?! :)

He was playing SS and pitching part time. Bz boy. 

Today's higher velocities and increased spin rates equals elevated stress on every pitch. Therefore, fewer pitches per outing is required if the team is interested in mitigating injuries and keeping a player available for use. Gone are the days of long outings for all but a very few select pitchers throughout baseball. High school pitchers are extremely risky draft picks, I think. 

I don’t think it just HS pitchers…but HS players in general.

It’s simply harder to project from the younger age and over a greater number of years. It’s harder to successfully predict the weather 5 days from now vs 2 days from now. More time for things to change and/or deviate from forecasted results.

But when a HS pitcher is drafted in the 1st/2nd rounds, it’s because the upside is SO high, that it warrants the higher fail rate. It seems like Soto fits that definition.

So for now, I’ll dream about him becoming one of the ones that came out ‘ok’ despite the odds being stacked against them: guys like Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Blake Snell, Zach Greinke, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia…

16 hours ago, Trov said:

Chase petty may have put up decent numbers, but he pitched in 18 games and only 68 innings for average of 3.7 innings per start. In 2021 he actually pitched more innings per start as he came out of pen 5 times and averaged 3.9 innings per outing. 

He clearly had some injury concerns as he pitched 30 innings less than he did the year prior last year, however, he appears to have made a start each week. 

As for Soto hopefully he can be one of the few high school pitcher that does have a good MLB career.  Very few high school pitchers make it.  

 Petty was having elbow soreness last year so they took it easy.  He has also dialed back on his fastball and now averaging in the 92-94 range.  He is still a very good pitcher shown by top 100 status,  but the ceiling is coming down a bit.   

As to the Twins philosophies,  I think they like the high upside of high school pitchers generally in the late 1st til about 3rd round - I feel last year was an exaggeration due to how deep the draft was and the fact the Questad was willing to signing for $500k.   You add in the fact we had a relatively empty pipeline when they got here it is not surprising they went more to the college pitching route to try and boost the pipeline more quickly with more developed pitchers.  

Early reports on Soto look good.  I am looking forward to game action from him.   He is fresh ball of clay with an arm that doesn't have a ton of mileage which is good and has some downside in that we don't know how much of a workload it can handle.  With his body type I am not too worried,  he appears to be very well put together.  

The pitching side of the farm is something I am very excited about.  I think there are a lot of quality arms at all levels and the cream will start to rise to the top.   

On 3/10/2024 at 7:05 PM, nova_twins said:

The Twins haven't drafted many high school pitchers, so I'm not sure it's accurate to say they have a problem developing them. It's definitely a mixed bag when it comes to high school pitching prospects, and the Twins seem to have experienced both ends of the spectrum. From Kohl Stewart's struggles to José Berríos's success, it's clear that drafting young arms can be a gamble. As for Charlee Soto, I'm cautiously optimistic. His background as a shortstop might give him a unique edge in terms of mechanics, and his pitch arsenal sounds promising. But as with any prospect, there's a long road ahead before we see him on the big stage. Speaking of which, I recently stumbled upon https://papersowl.com/examples/behavior-modification/ with some interesting essay examples about Behavior Modification. It's fascinating how behavioral psychology plays a role in player development, and perhaps there are insights there that could benefit Soto and other prospects like him.

True, it's not a huge sample size, but the track record with high school arms like Stewart hasn't been stellar. Berríos is the shining example, but he's more the exception than the rule. Hopefully, Soto breaks the mold.