How the Twins and Blue Jays Can Match Up on a Big Trade Again

[Ted Schwerzler]

The expectation this offseason has been that the Twins will be active on the trade market. Their needs are relatively few, and they have more than a few major-league assets to move. Calling up the Toronto Blue Jays worked before, and the teams' interests align again.

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

In July 2021, Derek Falvey contacted the Toronto Blue Jays to send Jose Berrios north. Talk of contract extensions for Berrios and Byron Buxton had run rampant, but Minnesota’s front office decided to cash in their starter instead. With not only Austin Martin, but also Simeon Woods Richardson, the return was substantial.

Heading into 2024, the Blue Jays need a corner outfielder and a third baseman. Daulton Varsho is moving to center field, leaving George Springer in one of the corners. Max Kepler could play the opposite corner, and his defensive abilities would give them an excellent group on the grass (er, turf).

Although Jorge Polanco hasn’t played much at third base, he did see innings there for Minnesota last season, and his ability to contribute as the designated hitter helps, too. Second base isn’t a huge need for the Blue Jays, with Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal rostered, but neither possesses the same offensive prowess that the Twins infielder brings.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Blue Jays would be interested in compromising their major-league roster's competitive outlook in the short term. Bo Bichette is a superstar, Kevin Gausman was a Cy Young finalist, and the team took a massive, ultimately doomed swing to add Shohei Ohtani. Still, some pieces could be had, and Minnesota finding something usable for one or both of their veterans seems to add up. Here are a trio of trades that could work.

For Polanco: Twins receive Alek Manoah and Connor Cooke
In 2024, Polanco will play his age-30 season. He is under contract for $10.5 million and carries a $12-million team option in 2025. He has played shortstop (poorly) and second base (well) during his career, but transitioning to the hot corner with some runway to get reps wouldn’t be unrealistic. Polanco’s reactions and instincts may work well alongside Bichette, and the Blue Jays may find themselves putting together a solid offensive infield.

In return, the Twins could take a major gamble. Manoah is a former All-Star, and finished third in the Cy Young voting two years ago. He hit rock bottom in a very public way last season, though, and Toronto sent him down to the Florida Complex League for a massive reset. A change of scenery and tweaks of pitching philosophy may help to resurrect his career. If things don’t change quickly, though, there is a chance Manoah never rebounds.

Throwing in Cooke gives the Twins something of a safety net. He’s a former 10th-round pick who finds himself at the bottom of the Blue Jays top 30 prospects', according to MLB.com. Cooke has yet to throw 60 innings during a season of pro ball, and he’s transitioned to relief work. Toronto did push Cooke to Triple-A Buffalo last year, so he’s technically knocking on the door, but he owned just a 4.38 ERA at Double A and was giving up 1.1 HR/9. The strikeout numbers are the draw here, and he has done a relatively good job at limiting walks. There’s a chance Cooke works himself into a Griffin Jax-type role with added velocity, or he could be a quality middle reliever if the jump doesn’t happen.

For Kepler: Twins receive Erik Swanson
Kepler has been available, in varying degrees, for three years. The Twins shouldn’t be looking to ship him out for nothing, though, and at $10 million, he need not sustain all the success he found in the second half of 2023 to be a worthwhile bargain. A good defender with a 121 OPS+ last year, Kepler would provide John Schneider with a loaded outfield. Even if he doesn’t replicate the offensive output, his defense should be worth exploring the move for Toronto.

As mentioned, it seems unlikely the Blue Jays want to cannibalize their big-league roster while looking to compete. Swanson is a player who should be available, though. The 30-year-old reliever is under team control for two more seasons, and has established himself as a legitimate medium- to high-leverage arm. Since his 2021 stint with the Seattle Mariners, Swanson owns a 2.60 ERA and 3.04 FIP. He puts up big strikeout numbers and controls the basepaths. Minnesota doesn’t need a closer or even a setup man, but something like this lengthens the bullpen, and that could be huge.

The Twins front office hasn’t ever really paid for bullpen help outside of Addison Reed, and it seems unlikely that that pattern will break in a year where payroll is on their minds. Shedding Kepler’s dollars while getting a good bullpen arm makes a lot of sense.

For Both Polanco and Kepler: Twins receive Addison Barger and Yosver Zulueta
I would put very little chance on Polanco and Kepler going in the same package, but the Blue Jays may be inclined to add both. I considered adding Christian Vazquez to this scenario and having the return focus around Danny Jansen. Still, Minnesota could also use the prospects as part of a follow-up deal.

Ricky Tiedemann is sure to be off the table. Orelvis Martinez isn’t an ideal fit and has a very high acquisition cost. Arjun Nimmala is too far away to help Minnesota now, and so is Brandon Barriera. Barger was a sixth-round pick in 2018 and played 2023 at Triple A. He posted just a .756 OPS, but is a season removed from a .933 OPS and 26 homers. Barger can play every infield position, but has spent most of his time on the left side.

Pairing Barger’s ceiling with another near-ready prospect could lessen the blow of losing two players from the active roster. Zulueta was signed out of Cuba and features an upper-90s fastball. He will be 26 in 2024, but he threw 64 innings at Triple A last year. He doesn’t give up any homers, but walks too many batters. There are some Yennier Cano comparisons to be made here, but Minnesota would have a chance to mold him into a reliever with a myriad of possible outcomes.

If Falvey pulls the trigger on moving an established player like Polanco or Kepler, he will want to find a way to replace their production almost immediately. Trading with a team focused on winning doesn’t always present that opportunity, but these three options seem to provide an avenue for something to work.

Are any of these trades enough for the Blue Jays to act? Which of them would you be most excited about?

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[chpettit19]

If the Twins scouts and development folks (Maki) think they know what's up with Manoah and can get him back on track they should do that first trade in a heartbeat. He has 4 more years of control left, and he could be the best pitcher on the staff if they get him back to what he was in 2022. A risk no doubt, but I'd much prefer that than trading Polanco for prospects.

[Parfigliano]

Polanco for Manoah and Cooke.  Pitching pitching pitching you can never have enough.

[Nashvilletwin]

How about Polanco and Vasquez for Swanson and Manoah?  Essentially, that’s a Polanco for Swanson swap and a Vasquez (and his full salary relief) for Manoah (a flyer starter).  We take the $20MM in savings and get the best FA starter we can afford.

In this scenario we solve our two biggest needs (a quality SP plus solid proven big league bullpen depth/length) while losing a somewhat redundant infielder and a poor value/dollar backup catcher (albeit, both Polanco and Vasquez are really, really good baseball players).  We also get a Twins staple starting pitcher home improvement project in Manoah.  And we keep our best prospects and Kepler and Farmer until the all-star break.

[MGX]

I like option #1 & taking chance on Manoah. Swanson is a good RP, but we can find FA's to help the bullpen & keep Max in RF.

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins can't get one of the Mariner or Marlins pitchers I like, I guess I'd take the gamble with the first two trades. But that's assuming the Twins at least know what's going on with Manoah's shoulder. If it's at all a concern, I probably don't have interest in him; chronic shoulder injuries are worse than elbow injuries for pitchers.

I don't like the prospect trade, how often does a guy reach AAA with a minor league career 5.8 BB/9 and actually succeed at the big league level? Once in a thousand?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

If the Jays will part with Manoah and Cooke for Polanco, that's a no brainer.  Manoah is a big enough talent to be worth a substantial risk.  I can't really imagine that an offer like that gets it done, but maybe with a sweetener on our side like Winder/Gordon/etc.  I'm in. 

[chinmusic]

Manoah went from an elite talent to an absolute trainwreck , literally from opening day in 2023.

I wouldn't give up much for him, and frankly, I wouldn't even want him on the Twins.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

The research I did on Manoah his poor performance was injury related.  He had an injection in September to his shoulder.  He was shutdown afterwards for the season.  He also was disgruntled they send him to the minors twice because of poor performance.  Which would be understandable if he was really injured.  He should have gone on injury reserve instead.  Any trade would require him to pass medical examination by Twins staff.   If he passes the Twins medical examination, I will definitely trade Polanco for him.  Too much upside to pass on.  He was a damn good pitcher in 2021 & 2022.  Plus, he isn't eligible for free agency until 2028.  Only caution he is a big guy.  I would want my scouts to access whether conditioning play a role in his injury.  If so, what do they believe his work effort will be to address it.

[Major League Ready]

This is really interesting.  My hesitation would be that the Jays don't do this deal unless they think Manoah is unlikely to rebound.  Do our guys know better than their guys?  They are much closer to the situation.  The optimist in me loves the idea / upside of this proposed trade.  The realist says this probably does not end well.  I guess my inclination is the same as Nicks in that a deal with Seattle or Miami is preferable.

[Riverbrian]

Of all people... It's Morosi reporting that the Twins and Blue Jays are potential trade partners. 

Apparently, Max Kepler is on a plane bound for Toronto and George Springer has made a reservation for 40 people at a popular German restaurant downtown.  

[gil4]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Of all people... It's Morosi reporting that the Twins and Blue Jays are potential trade partners. 

Apparently, Max Kepler is on a plane bound for Toronto and George Springer has made a reservation for 40 people at a popular German restaurant downtown.  

I'm not familiar with him, so I'm not sure how to take your comment.  Is he prone to wild trade claims that never happen and your second sentence is sarcasm, or is he a solid source and you are saying it's a real possibility?  

[roger]

Don’t like any of these trades.  It makes sense that Polo heads the group leaving.  But the guy coming should be a young guy with a year or part of a year experience as a starting pitcher.  Something similar to Lopez, maybe a bit less upside.

[PatPfund]

I'm sorry, but why on earth would the Jays want Polanco? He was absolutely dreadful at 3B last year, the Jays certainly saw the same things I saw, because a couple of his worst plays happened against them in Game 1 of the playoffs (Polanco fields easy grounder, double clutches, then almost gets Kirilloff killed with an awful throw; later Polanco has a slow bouncer, runs right past it, and leaves it to Correa to come halfway across the infield to bail him out with the fantastic throw to get Bichette).

Polanco needs to go to a team that needs a 2B or maybe wants to convert him to 1B. And that team is NOT the Jays.

And if all you can get for Max is some crummy relievers, then keep him. (IF he isn't part of a package that brings back a good SP, keep him.) The Twins don't need crummy RPs and they DO need corner OFs unless you feel excited by handing Gordon and/or Larnach starting jobs. (I don't.)

[Riverbrian]

42 minutes ago, gil4 said:

I'm not familiar with him, so I'm not sure how to take your comment.  Is he prone to wild trade claims that never happen and your second sentence is sarcasm, or is he a solid source and you are saying it's a real possibility?  

Morosi was the guy who reported and apologized later for letting the world know that Shohei Ohtani was signing with Toronto and on a plane heading for Canada which had everyone tracking the plane. When it landed Robert Herjavec the Shark Tank guy got out of the plane and was surprised by his welcoming party. 

[harmony55]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

I'm sorry, but why on earth would the Jays want Polanco? He was absolutely dreadful at 3B last year, the Jays certainly saw the same things I saw, because a couple of his worst plays happened against them in Game 1 of the playoffs (Polanco fields easy grounder, double clutches, then almost gets Kirilloff killed with an awful throw; later Polanco has a slow bouncer, runs right past it, and leaves it to Correa to come halfway across the infield to bail him out with the fantastic throw to get Bichette).

Polanco needs to go to a team that needs a 2B or maybe wants to convert him to 1B. And that team is NOT the Jays.

And if all you can get for Max is some crummy relievers, then keep him. (IF he isn't part of a package that brings back a good SP, keep him.) The Twins don't need crummy RPs and they DO need corner OFs unless you feel excited by handing Gordon and/or Larnach starting jobs. (I don't.)

FWIW over the past two seasons Erik Swanson ranked 20th among all qualified relievers with 2.6 fWAR. As a point of reference Jhoan Duran ranked 23rd with 2.5 fWAR over that period (although fWAR is an imprecise measure for relievers).

In a trade last offseason, three years of Erik Swanson (and a minor league pitcher) landed one year of outfielder Teoscar Hernandez coming off three seasons of a combined 133 OPS+ with 73 home runs. One year of Max Kepler might not be enough to land two seasons of Swanson.

[SteveLV]

I like Toronto as a match up as a Twins trade partner, but I HATE these actual trades.

My goodness, Monoah received the Miguel Sano treatment last year, all the way down to the developmental league in Florida. Plus their 30th ranked prospect?  Seriously, for a 3 times All Star on a very reasonable contract?

Then, Kepler, who was the 3rd best hitter in baseball after the ASB last year for a 30 year old ok reliever?  Big pass on this, too. I would rather keep Kepler than 3 Swanson's.

The Blue Jays have 5 really nice Lefties in their minors (Tiedemann, Barriera, Rojas, Macko and Fluharty), how about some of that?  If we are trading established MLB players on reasonable contracts, the Twins should be receiving some legitimate prospects in return, not mediocrity.

[Fatbat]

If Manoah’s shoulder is shredded and his career is likely over, he isn’t even tradable and Toronto’s med staff would have to disclose what they know and all the imaging they have taken of it.  My assumption is that he is fixable and if thats the case, trading 2 yrs of polo for 3-5 years of Manoah is a no brainer.  Just do it and fix the him. 

[sun]

The only trade I'd be interested in is for Jose Berrios. 

[Otaknam]

Taking a swing for Manoah by trading Polanco is intriguing. It would free up Polanco’s $10 million and create an opening in the infield. Manoah is a large man with some upside, and he is still several years away from free agency. A change of scenery and different coaching might help. Worst case scenario is they dump the salary while losing Polanco’s solid production IF HE STAYS HEALTHY. But that production can potentially be offset by younger players getting at bats. I don’t like the Kepler for a middle reliever like Swanson, even with some minor leaguers added. Right now the team doesn’t have a proven defensive replacement for Kepler, so that is an issue. And middle relievers can be found in free agency. 

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

The research I did on Manoah his poor performance was injury related.  He had an injection in September to his shoulder.  He was shutdown afterwards for the season.  He also was disgruntled they send him to the minors twice because of poor performance.  Which would be understandable if he was really injured.  He should have gone on injury reserve instead.  Any trade would require him to pass medical examination by Twins staff.   If he passes the Twins medical examination, I will definitely trade Polanco for him.  Too much upside to pass on.  He was a damn good pitcher in 2021 & 2022.  Plus, he isn't eligible for free agency until 2028.  Only caution he is a big guy.  I would want my scouts to access whether conditioning play a role in his injury.  If so, what do they believe his work effort will be to address it.

Seems like an out of shape Michael Pineda……if all that’s wrong with him is bad shoulder, the Jays would have done all they could to get him healthy! Gotta think there’s an attitude issue or a lack of motivation to be in shape…..why else would an organization take a youthful Cy Young candidate and treat him with little respect - has to be a two way street. If he can fit in as a personality, they’re going to give him more opportunities!

[JD-TWINS]

I’m not trading with Guardians - Mariners - Blue Jays any veteran guys with potential upside that could bite us in the rear in the near-term playoffs.

Kepler - Polanco aren’t going to up & coming league rivals if I run the organization. Prospects - OK.

 

[hitterscount]

Manoah was literally the worst SP in baseball last year. I wouldn't trade anyone for him. I don't know how you even begin to repair/tool the issues he was having. Toronto gave him a long leash, and he just kept getting rocked. 

If they are serious about a quality arm my first step would be to see what some of the quality arms want for a 3-4 extension and realize it will cost them some really good prospects and either Kepler or Polanco.  

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This is really interesting.  My hesitation would be that the Jays don't do this deal unless they think Manoah is unlikely to rebound.  Do our guys know better than their guys?  They are much closer to the situation.  The optimist in me loves the idea / upside of this proposed trade.  The realist says this probably does not end well.  I guess my inclination is the same as Nicks in that a deal with Seattle or Miami is preferable.

My comeback is they definitely have need for player like Polanco at 2B.  Who the Twins can afford to trade because of their depth at 2B.  Also, the Blue Jays might recognize that they will have an unhappy player with Manoah.  Due to their handling of his injury situation last year.  I'm still very interested.  Knowing he has to pass the medical exam to approve the trade.

[specialiststeve]

23 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Polanco for Manoah and Cooke.  Pitching pitching pitching you can never have enough.

If they would do that .... get it dones ASAP.. 

Manoah has the upside of a top of the rotation guy if can get him right...

[KirbyDome89]

Such a hard pass on Manoah. Injury concerns aside (and those very much exist) the guy straight up quit on Toronto last year, and by most accounts was an absolute ass about doing some rehab/reset work in the minors. 

[jorgenswest]

Is Manoah a bigger risk than trading for a prospect? I think it matters that he has been successful at the major league level. I think I would bet on the 25 year old who has done it before over the promise of the prospect that probably isn’t much younger.

I do acknowledge that it was reported on October 8 that he  received an injection for his shoulder. It was further reported that his symptoms were not structural. The medicals will be important here.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 12/18/2023 at 4:31 PM, chinmusic said:

Manoah went from an elite talent to an absolute trainwreck , literally from opening day in 2023.

I wouldn't give up much for him, and frankly, I wouldn't even want him on the Twins.

Manoah's issue appear to be mental and his physical status.  If he is taking better care of his body in the offseason,  I think it will give you a big indicator on whether he will be successful this year or not.  The second is how severe is the shoulder injury.  He received an injection for shoulder discomfort this fall.  Seems like a Paddack situation all over.  Still likely worth a flier.  

[SAL]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Such a hard pass on Manoah. Injury concerns aside (and those very much exist) the guy straight up quit on Toronto last year, and by most accounts was an absolute ass about doing some rehab/reset work in the minors. 

Agreed, he also disregarded Blue Jays doctors opinions for his own doctor's. He seems like a total headache. He also seems to have an issue with half the players in the league. He would be bad for clubhouse moral.

[chinmusic]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Manoah's issue appear to be mental and his physical status

Yes, but mental with a large dose of attitudinal. I live in Toronto, so I guess my exposure to Blue Jays talk radio plays a part in my opinion. His rise was really fast; his fall even faster.  I just have the sense that acquiring him would be a mistake.