Which Twins are Untouchable?

[Cody Pirkl]

With the Winter Meetings underway, the Twins are focused on the trade market. That means several players at all levels of the system are at risk of being dealt. Should any of them be considered “untouchable”?

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Generally, only a few players in a given MLB organization can be considered entirely off the table. The concept of an “untouchable” player may differ from person to person, and from circumstance to circumstance. Still, it’s essential to consider how the Twins may consider this definition and who fits it within the organization.

Untouchable status deals with factors from both the trading and receiving team. What does this player mean to the Twins and how they plan to operate going forward? How much risk does the player carry for the acquiring team, and how much does that weigh into how much they're willing to pay? In some situations, questions such as these just won't line up to create a realistic deal that each team is willing to agree to. Not every GM is Jerry Dipoto willing to take on considerable risk.

Regarding an MLB-ready player, being considered untouchable often has more to do with what they could bring back in a realistic trade and whether it would outweigh the value the player is already providing to the team. Julio Rodriguez is likely an untouchable asset for the Seattle Mariners as a young, perennial MVP candidate center fielder. They could surely get a haul if they made him available in trade. Still, his value as an already-established MLB player will likely outweigh the value of just about any realistic combination of prospects who have yet to prove it in The Show. He’s also become the face of the franchise and a fan favorite, so it’s almost impossible to imagine him on the move anytime soon.

It should be even more challenging to consider prospects untouchable. This classification would be based entirely on how much value a team thinks they could have in the future. It’s a complex determination, given how often even top prospects flame out due to either performance or injury. So, which Twins are most likely to be considered untouchable?

*Note: Players with no-trade clauses, such as Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, are not considered*

Pablo Lopez
The Twins had been searching for a front-line starter for years, and they found it when they acquired López. Still just 29 years old, the team's ace is under team control at a below-market rate for four more years. The only way the Twins would even consider moving López in a competitive window would be for another impact starting pitcher, plus some significant sweeteners. It’s probably not a realistic package a team would offer.

Royce Lewis
Lewis has a lot going for him on and off the field. He’s tied to this front office as the first draft pick they made--No. 1 overall in 2017. His path to the majors has been winding, but he played a significant role in ending the dreaded postseason losing streak with his two homers against Toronto in Game 1. He appears to be the kind of player around whom you can build a championship team, and the Twins are likely to do just that. It may not be long until an extension is in place. Royce is sticking around.

Walker Jenkins
As the team’s top prospect, Jenkins was considered a candidate for the first overall selection if drafted in a different year. After utterly dominating the minors with a near-1.000 OPS across three levels in 2023, Jenkins has the upside of a legitimate superstar. At only 18 years of age, he carries plenty of risk. Still, it’s hard to imagine the type of return it would take for the Twins to ship him out without seeing more of what he can do in the minor leagues.

Brooks Lee
The Twins' top prospect before Jenkins was picked, Lee is thought of highly in the organization and within the fan base. As he nears the MLB level, he doesn’t currently have a place to play, with second and third base covered several times over. The Twins would love to see how his career plays out in Minnesota. Still, it’s fair to wonder whether his lack of an immediate position and less dominant 2023 season makes him a candidate to be included in a trade for an impact acquisition.

Edouard Julien
The Twins will undoubtedly receive calls on Julien this winter as they try to deal with their infield log jam. He’s shown an elite eye at the plate, and can hit for power out of the leadoff spot. His defense is a work in progress, but he improved down the stretch in 2023. Julien should be another core piece across the diamond from Lewis in the future, but the organization’s history of dealing elite hitters with defensive concerns is worth considering (See Luis Arraez).

Joe Ryan
Ryan would be firmly in the untouchable category if he had finished 2023 anywhere near the way he started it. He was a legitimate front-end starter with team control through 2027 before his second half went completely off the rails following injury. Still, the whole body of work was solid, and it’s hard to envision the Twins parting ways with a controllable starting pitcher who has sometimes flashed elite skills when they already need a Sonny Gray replacement.

Jhoan Duran
It takes a lot for a reliever to be considered untouchable, and Durán could be one of the few in the game in that conversation. The Twins bullpen would drop from (arguably) an above-average unit to firmly below-average without the fireballer. That being said, as important as Duran is to the team, it's hard to imagine this regime in particular holding him out of trade talks if a reliever-desperate team was dangling a starting pitcher. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez
The ceiling remains sky-high for E-Rod, with an OPS over .850 in High-A in 2023, and he’ll likely start 2024 in Wichita. Strikeouts remain a huge concern, and the bust potential attached to that weakness makes it worth wondering whether the Twins would dangle him in a deal with a team that thinks highly of him. If they think he can stick in center field and iron out the strikeouts, they may have him off the table in trade talks.

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In all reality, there are likely somewhere between one and three names on this list who are genuinely untouchable in the Twins' eyes. Serious teams don’t take more players than that off the table in trade talks. There are likely some shocking moves on the way, as we’ve seen from the last few offseasons under this regime, and we should expect to see a couple of beloved players sent packing. Which players in the organization are genuinely untouchable? Are there any?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Lopez is 27, he will turn 28 in March. I think generally they won’t trade major league pitching or Walker Jenkins or (most likely) Royce. Otherwise I wouldn’t be shocked at just about anything

[Fatbat]

Its is certainly possible that the Twins with 3 top 50 prospects and an actual core of YOUNG MLB talent will be an insanely good team if its kept together. Without considering injuries, we could build a dynasty for the next decade. I know there are plenty of jaded commentators on this site that nit pick every little flaw players have but the fact remains that the Twins have some absolute studs and not just 1 or 3. The FO knows it, thats what they do. Its their job to assemble talent and win championships. At some point they will trade for positions of need (SP for ‘24). At least we can now trade stud for stud instead of being a bottom feeder team.  Who is untouchable? Whoever is still here because no other team gave up the correct amount of talent to get them from us. 

[strumdatjag]

Because if the many options at 2B and 3B , you can delete Julien and even Lee from this list.    One or the other can be trade chip if the price is right.  Otherwise, I agree with all of the others and would probably be less equivocal on Joe Ryan (Young starting pitching, even when a bit shaky, is a premium need).  

[Trov]

I never say a player is "untouchable" because it is relative to what the return is.  Generally, when we say "untouchable" we mean the likely return is not expected to be equal.  I think anyone would trade any of the players on this list straight up for Ronald Acuna Jr. I know I sure would. However, it is unlikely that deal would happen.  

Prospects are even less in the untouchable world.  No matter how highly touted the prospect is, they are still just lottery tickets.  Many would have said Sano was "untouchable" when he was a prospect but now if we could have traded him for something of value we would have.  

That being said, I would agree that the return for any of the players mentioned would have to be a very good return and not just a bench player, back of rotation guy, or pen guy. We would need to be true impact player returns. 

[JD-TWINS]

To me, since prospects carry a “perceived value forward”, a guy like Rodriguez is very intriguing to other clubs. I think, with Lee coming in ‘24 & possibly displacing Lewis into an OF option along with Martin as specifically a CF option at some point in ‘24 …….Rodriguez spends the year in St. Paul.

Jenkins is almost a certainty in ‘26 at some point in CF - right?

With Martin/Castro/Buxton, even Gordon in ‘24…….through ‘25, were good in CF. Rodriguez is available with a whole bunch of upside for the acquiring team…….that’s needed to get a return the Twins want!

Julien’s limited defense & principally, the DH logjam caused by Buxton, makes him top end #2 candidate to potentially get moved.

Don't like sending offensive talent out of the organization but after seeing the results from the Arraez trade I have to defer to the FO for good judgement.

[arby58]

My 'untouchable' list, even before seeing the article, was Lopez, Lewis, and Jenkins - with Duran (who closes?) and Jeffers  (who catches?) and maybe Rodriguez close behind (i.e., offer would have to blow you away). I sort of 'get' the point about Ryan - he's likely to be a solid #3 starter for a long time, and I'm not sure you'd get anything more than that back in a trade. Other than that, keeping in mind obvious points (don't trade both Lee and Julien, for example), I'd say the rest is negotiable.

[old nurse]

No player is untouchable when the deal is heavily in the Twins favor. The possibility of it happening is also fairly small

[chpettit19]

I'd say Lewis, Jenkins, and Lopez are the 3 that are really even close to untouchable. I'd trade Ryan in a heartbeat for a #1 pitcher with less control than him if somebody like Milwaukee is interested in getting more control even if it's for a lesser arm. I'd much prefer to lock Duran up long-term, but if someone's willing to give up a top-end starter for a top end reliever I'd do that without thinking twice. I don't think Lee is a star so if he can bring young, controllable pitching I'd move him. Julien improved defensively, but still wasn't even average, and he's never hit lefties which isn't something I love for someone in the top 4 or 5 in my order so he'd be tradeable for me. I don't think ERod has any shot at hitting his ceiling if he can't reduce his K's significantly, and that's way easier said than done. So if somebody wants to give up young, controllable pitching for him I'd do that without thinking twice. Now none of those trades would be to just give these guys away, but in the right deal I wouldn't hesitate to move any of them.

As others, including the author, have said, "untouchable" really just means there's not a package out there that would realistically be offered for a player that the Twins would be willing to take. I've been driving the "Lewis is a star" bus since well before he debuted, but I have questions about his ability to stay healthy. He may actually be tradeable in the right deal, but, despite there being strong evidence to the contrary, I can't believe the Twins FO is so incredibly bad at PR that they'd trade the new face of the franchise right after winning their first playoff game in 20 years. So he's probably untouchable right now because of that, and if he maintains his health for all of 2024 I'd expect he's untouchable because of production after next season. Jenkins looks like a guy who could debut at the age of 20 to me, and those aren't guys you trade. And the Twins need more frontline pitching, not less, so I don't see how there's any deal that would be worth it to move Lopez (which wasn't something I thought I'd ever say when that trade was made). Beyond them I think there's realistic packages for anyone else in the Twins org.

[HoskenPowell]

Julien is tradable in my eyes......he's not gonna magically become that much better at defense at this age.....if he hasn't showed it by now it ain't there.   Get pitching for him and I'd trade him.

[Riverbrian]

[EGFTShaw]

There is a difference between untouchable and most likely won't be traded.

There is no on the Twins team right now who is the Best at their position.  Duran comes close, but I could never imagine when a RP would ever be untouchable due to their volatile nature.

If the right offer comes along to improve the Twins, then no one is untouchable.

That said, players I wouldn't trade without a lot of consternation:

WalkerJ
RoyceL
PabloL
JRyan
JDuran

Next would be:
BrooksL
EJulien
Wallner
AK-19

And there still are some very good players on the Twins team.

But IMHO, there are no Untouchables.

[Karbo]

I agree with Lewis, Jenkins and Lopez are about as close to untouchable as anyone. But that said, make me an offer and we'll see.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Every one of these guys qualifies as a player who I would rather not trade, but for the right offer, as has been said by many, no one is untouchable. 

I also agree with @chpettit19 that there is always a question as to whether young players and prospects will ever actually develop the way we hope they will.  If you look back and project from when they were minor leaguers, did Eddie Rosario or Miguel Sano?  Byron Buxton's career has been a long ways from poor, but when we compare him to the expectations for him, it looks like a train wreck (comparison intended). Polanco has probably lived up to expectations.  Kepler has lacked consistency but has shown flashes of who we thought he could become.  Every team's past is littered with top talented prospects that didn't completely work out as planned.  I absolutely love the potential upside of Wallner, Julien, Rodriguez, Lee, Jenkins, Lewis, et al., but they aren't there yet.  Will Julien become an acceptable defender (I think so) that can hit lefties (not sure)?  Does Lee just have a really high floor (I think so, gets him here faster) so that he's can't miss but probably not going to be a superstar (could be)?  Will Lewis experience a sophomore slump (he might)?  Right now Jenkins looks like a man among boys, but what happens when/if the boys catch up to him (you never know)?  This is of course to say nothing of injuries.  The next 12 months will tell us a lot about their future.  Somebody is going to get traded and some of us aren't going to like it.  It will all depend on the return.

[saviking]

As of now positions players are in abundance but not pitchers. Salary cap problems should dictate young players with years of options and low salary's should only go if the value is very high. So the MOST touchable to clear cap space should be:

Buxton .. but there is no willing takers

Correa .. No trade clause

Vazquez

Polanco 

Kepler

That's 84 minion in payroll. 

------------------------------------

Not going to happen but could you imagine wheat we could do for the team if we had that kind of money to spend with the young talent we have on the team and in the minor leagues not to along with whatever we could get in return ...

Sorry, I drifted off into fantasy land for a bit. Don't shoot me :)

 

 

[GV14218]

This list makes for good off-season conversations.  Overall I agree with the arguments about who to place on this list, however saying that Walker Jenkins "utterly dominat[ed] the minors" is a real stretch - he has played a grand total of 26 games.  Pump the brakes on that one.  

[UK Twin]

Well, Correa and Buxton are untouchable by default due to their full no trade clauses. I would certainly consider Lewis untouchable right now - there's simply too much upside and too much team control to even consider trading him. Lopez is our ace now Gray has gone - he's on the list too. Jenkins is a must keep. I think that's pretty much it for my untouchable list. 

[Blyleven2011]

Untouchable players ...

You don't trade players that your going to build around  and there really are just two at the major league level  and that's Lewis and Lopez,  maybe 3 with Duran  ...

Correa and buxton don't count because of no trade clause but anyone else  on the major league roster is tradeable  ...

Since the chase petty trade who was a 1st round draft choice I have to believe the FO would  trade any prospects for a position of need  ...

Pitcher  please ...

[Nashvilletwin]

1. Walker Jenkins = Roy Hobbs.  No one in their right mind except the evil judge or Max Mercy would trade Roy Hobbs.

2. Royce Lewis = potentially the Twins’ Derek Jeter.  Who would trade Derek Jeter?

3. Brooks Lee - by the end of ‘24 he will be a better hitting and defensive shortstop than our $30MM+/year incumbent at less than 1/30th of the cost. Can you imagine his value then? His value is about to skyrocket. He stays - certainly for now and hopefully for a decade.

4. Pablo Lopez - this FO’s best trade and sign deal ever - no other comes close.  No chance he is traded: the FO needs something to keep reminding us how smart they are,

5. Ryan Jeffers - a solid hitting, improving defensively young catcher at a great cost.  That’s absolute gold.  He is going nowhere.

6, Johan Duran - see Jeffers above except replace catcher with closer.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, HoskenPowell said:

Julien is tradable in my eyes......he's not gonna magically become that much better at defense at this age.....if he hasn't showed it by now it ain't there.   Get pitching for him and I'd trade him.

His defense got better from the start of 23 to the end of 23 so to say he won’t improve anymore isn’t even logical. He is young and is bat first. He can even figure out how to hit better against lefties. Doesn’t mean he will but he definitely has the ability to improve. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

I'm a big believer that untouchability is a market condition, rather than an absolute one. There are guys where you're just not going to get an offer that realistically eclipses their value to the team. For me, right now, those guys are:

Emmanuel Rodríguez
Royce Lewis
Pablo López
Matt Wallner

But of course, OF COURSE, that's fluid. A month or two trades from now, the picture might be different enough that two more guys are on this list, or that one or two come off it.

[Doctor Gast]

There's only 1 true untouchable & that's Royce Lewis. There are too many intangibles that go along with his talent & upside to ever get close to a fair return on him, a likely perennial all-star & future MVP, someone to build a team around.

Then there's the very hard-to-trade & that's #1 Pablo Lopez, an established veteran who has a great attitude, anchors our rotation & still has plenty of upside- all-star & likely CY winner #2 Brook Lee is a great all-around player who can play anywhere on the INF, pure switch hitter that shows some power- likely all-star. #3 Jhoan Duran, hard to find a better high-leverage RP who is undervalued w/o him our BP goes from the top to below average- should be an all-star.

 

Low trade availability- #1 Walter Jenkins, I believe he could be another Aaron Judge, Someone we can dream about but that's all it is right now a dream. He's someone I'd like to hang on to but if a deal to good be true came along I'd jump on it. IMO a Judge type isn't someone who can take us to the WS. As I get to know him more, my opinion might change.

#2 Joe Ryan, a hungry young SP with still a lot of upside fairly durable- potential all-star.  #3? Edouard Julien, is a great hitter that I'd like to keep as a 1B man but would trade very quickly if projected as a 2B man especially if a top-end SP is in the deal.

 

The others I'd be open to trade especially if they top out in trade value & less likely if they are under-valued.

 

 

[KBJ1]

Not that we'd be trading any pitchers:

But Lopez, Ryan, Duran would be foolish to trade.

Lewis, Lee, Jenkins  should be no Brainers, no trade.

I also think Austin Martin is going to be a very valuable Kevin Kiermeier type player: great defense, more speed and likely a better BA. An important piece for years to come.

So who to trade:

First dump Polanco & Kepler for backend starters, bullpen help or OF prospects. Clear that salary and sign Gurriel - a Five Tool player - to fill the RH void in LF.

Then trade Julien & Jeffers.

We are not going to get top flite controllable pitching for anything less. 

Catchers are part time players and a team can live with a veteran like Vazquez guiding someone like Carmago if the position can play defense & hit 200.

What a team can't survive is Joey Gallo in LF as we have proven.

This gets us a top flyte pitcher AND fills our biggest offensive need.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

As of now positions players are in abundance but not pitchers. Salary cap problems should dictate young players with years of options and low salary's should only go if the value is very high. So the MOST touchable to clear cap space should be:

Buxton .. but there is no willing takers

Correa .. No trade clause

Vazquez

Polanco 

Kepler

That's 84 minion in payroll. 

------------------------------------

Not going to happen but could you imagine wheat we could do for the team if we had that kind of money to spend with the young talent we have on the team and in the minor leagues not to along with whatever we could get in return ...

Sorry, I drifted off into fantasy land for a bit. Don't shoot me :)

 

 

I imagine a healthy Buxton in CF for 140 games and a healthy C4 at SS for 157 games. Both playing at all star level results. You can't buy that in this offseason for what we are paying them and we might already have it rostered with no trade clauses at under $50M. 

[Fatbat]

@KBJ1 Austin Martin may end up better than Kiermaer but certainly hasn’t reach untouchable status yet. I hope he sticks around here but then I didn’t think Arraez would be traded.  I like your list tho and would probably add Jeffers to untouchable this year hoping that he improves on his 23 season. That allows us to trade CV with Carmargo taking over backup in 24/25. 
I wouldn’t give anyone a forever untouchable unless they were a perennial allstar. In that case, just open the wallet and pay them. 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Untouchable players ...

You don't trade players that your going to build around  and there really are just two at the major league level  and that's Lewis and Lopez,  maybe 3 with Duran  ...

Correa and buxton don't count because of no trade clause but anyone else  on the major league roster is tradeable  ...

Since the chase petty trade who was a 1st round draft choice I have to believe the FO would  trade any prospects for a position of need  ...

Pitcher  please ...

Petty was toward the end of the first round and a high school pitcher - I wouldn't project that out to 'would trade any prospects for a position of need.' I 'get' the point of 'what if it were Acuna/Robert/etc.' but we're talking realistic trades here. 

[tony&rodney]

Wow, plenty of positive vibes for Royce Lewis. Good to read/see. I just hope people aren't disappointed if he doesn't win multiple MVP trophies. I like the thought of .300 Ave. and 40 HR from Lewis as someone suggested, but I will be happy if he can avoid injuries and play 150+ games.

I guess I would suggest that only Correa and Buxton are untouchable due to their NT clauses in their contracts. Naturally many others are unlikely to be traded. 

It would be interesting to get some thoughts on the Twins players from scouts, national writers, or some reasonable source.  Hard to know how others see your team's players. I saw a trade on BTV that exchanged Pablo Lopez for Matz and Liberatore from St. Louis. I thought, "Really?" I wouldn't trade Pablo Lopez for Jordan Walker. Not because I have little regard for him, because I have great regard for Walker. The Twins need Lopez as a pitcher more at this time. So I wonder how others see the Twins.

[Finlander]

Given the depth with hitters and the difficulty in getting young, controllable quality pitching, I'd lean more towards Pablo Lopez and maybe Jhoan Duran as off limits. Lopez is what you want to find more of, and Duran is nearly a unicorn. Ryan is borderline untouchable to me. But if trading him brought back E Cabrera and Max Meyer, why not consider. I'm also intrigued enough by Jenkins to want to see more of him, so he's also on the no trade list for now. I think anyone else could be available. It depends on the return. There are contingencies of course. If Lewis is moved, Lee likely has to stay. Even Correa or Buxton could be traded if they waived their NT clause, as has been done in the past by others. Jeffers tempted me only because of the lack of catching depth in the system, and he looks like he could become an impact bat. But if another team wants him badly enough, we have Vasquez and can find a backup. 

[harmony55]

In a discussion about untouchables, it's interesting that many fans want the Twins to pursue Seattle righthander Logan Gilbert, who provides an interesting comp with Minnesota righthander Pablo Lopez.

Over the past two seasons Gilbert and Lopez have each posted 6.1 bWAR in 64 starts, Gilbert in 376.1 innings and Lopez in 374 innings. Lopez held the edge in fWAR, 7.3 to 6.3.

Lopez is guaranteed $73.5 million under the four-year extension signed in April. Gilbert, who is a year younger than Lopez, remains under team control for four arbitration years at a projected cumulative salary of $42.1 million.

Because of the difference in guaranteed and projected salaries, Baseball Trade Values assigns Gilbert a surplus trade value of $65.9 million and Lopez a surplus value of $26.5 million.

Yet many fans view Lopez as untouchable and Gilbert as attainable. Of course each team's surplus and needs would impact those assessments.

Trivia: Pablo Lopez and Logan Gilbert each started their professional careers in the Seattle organization. In July 2017 the Mariners traded Lopez and three other prospects to Miami for reliever David Phelps. Yikes!

[Markdumont25]

Since most seem to more or less agree on the "untouchables" (however you define it), maybe a more interesting question is who is most untouchable. Right now I say Royce. He's got that Puckett energy and has shown the superstar ability to back up the intangibles. Obviously the injuries are the big concern but that would also likely prevent us from getting a "fair" return for his overall skillset. There's also the recent narrative of him being the drought busting hero we've been waiting nearly 20 years for. I know I for one would probably institute a boycott for part (let's face it, I can't keep away for long) of the season if he was shipped off.