Which Twins are Untouchable?

[mnfireman]

Untouchable seems to be relative to individual TD members feelings about the most recent results of the players being judged. After a horrible 2019 at A+ and AA some on here felt Lewis should be traded, but Kirilloff, Larnach and Balazovic were untouchable. Up until a bump in the road at AAA last season, many on here felt Lee was untouchable, but now think he should be traded. There are more examples including Arraez, Buxton, Sano, Graterol, Duran, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Ryan, Berrios and others that have been on both sides of the untouchable/trade them now discussion. If the right trade offer comes along, the front office takes it, no matter who we think is untouchable.

 

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Untouchable seems to be relative to individual TD members feelings about the most recent results of the players being judged. After a horrible 2019 at A+ and AA some on here felt Lewis should be traded, but Kirilloff, Larnach and Balazovic were untouchable. Up until a bump in the road at AAA last season, many on here felt Lee was untouchable, but now think he should be traded. There are more examples including Arraez, Buxton, Sano, Graterol, Duran, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Ryan, Berrios and others that have been on both sides of the untouchable/trade them now discussion. If the right trade offer comes along, the front office takes it, no matter who we think is untouchable.

 

Entirely agree with this thought.

My only addition is a curiosity of how the Twins and the industry see Walker Jenkins and the other "top five" drafted last summer after their short debuts last summer. Each of these guys were seen as being (identified as) similar to the three guys from 2009-2011: Strasbourg, Harper, and Cole in talent. The "experts" ranked them above all of Correa, Lewis, Rutschman, and Holliday and any other draftees in the last decade, before the draft last summer. Recently, Holliday and Rutschman have proven to be good choices. Does this create a special category for Jenkins and his pals?

In any event, the ballplayers need to make it happen on the field and the front offices are assigned the task of building a team. So it does go back to ..... anyone can be traded.

[Cody Pirkl]

5 hours ago, HoskenPowell said:

Julien is tradable in my eyes......he's not gonna magically become that much better at defense at this age.....if he hasn't showed it by now it ain't there.   Get pitching for him and I'd trade him.

He was doing quite a bit better defensively down the stretch last year at 2B, and his bat plays at 1B/DH as well. I don't think he's untouchable, but his bat may turn out to be elite.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, harmony55 said:

In a discussion about untouchables, it's interesting that many fans want the Twins to pursue Seattle righthander Logan Gilbert, who provides an interesting comp with Minnesota righthander Pablo Lopez.

Over the past two seasons Gilbert and Lopez have each posted 6.1 bWAR in 64 starts, Gilbert in 376.1 innings and Lopez in 374 innings. Lopez held the edge in fWAR, 7.3 to 6.3.

Lopez is guaranteed $73.5 million under the four-year extension signed in April. Gilbert, who is a year younger than Lopez, remains under team control for four arbitration years at a projected cumulative salary of $42.1 million.

Because of the difference in guaranteed and projected salaries, Baseball Trade Values assigns Gilbert a surplus trade value of $65.9 million and Lopez a surplus value of $26.5 million.

Yet many fans view Lopez as untouchable and Gilbert as attainable. Of course each team's surplus and needs would impact those assessments.

Trivia: Pablo Lopez and Logan Gilbert each started their professional careers in the Seattle organization. In July 2017 the Mariners traded Lopez and three other prospects to Miami for reliever David Phelps. Yikes!

In my opinion, the difference between Lopez being untouchable for the Twins and Gilbert being attainable from Seattle is the team context.

If Seattle trades Gilbert, they have George Kirby and Luis Castillo to lead their rotation along with several other high upside young arms with years of team control like Brian Woo and Bryce Miller. They also need offensive help if they want to contend, making their depth at SP an obvious place to deal from.

If the Twins traded Pablo Lopez, there isn't much they could realistically get in return that make the trade worth it. They just lost Sonny Gray, and while guys like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are nice pieces, the rotation is going to wind up in a much worse place. They don't need a monster bat back in a Pablo Lopez trade, and they aren't trading their front line starting pitcher for another front line starting pitcher. He's arguably the most important piece of the pitching staff, whereas Logan Gilbert is just one Seattle's impressive starting pitchers. 

Both players likely have similar value on the trade market, but what they could bring back in return is much more useful to Seattle's roster than Minnesota's.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Untouchable seems to be relative to individual TD members feelings about the most recent results of the players being judged. After a horrible 2019 at A+ and AA some on here felt Lewis should be traded, but Kirilloff, Larnach and Balazovic were untouchable. Up until a bump in the road at AAA last season, many on here felt Lee was untouchable, but now think he should be traded. There are more examples including Arraez, Buxton, Sano, Graterol, Duran, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Ryan, Berrios and others that have been on both sides of the untouchable/trade them now discussion. If the right trade offer comes along, the front office takes it, no matter who we think is untouchable.

 

I think this is more of a testament to the point about minor leaguers being deemed untouchable. As Kirilloff ascended through the system, some people did in fact feel he was untouchable. Now he's made it to the majors and has major injury concerns and has yet to have sustained success, and there's question of whether he could be sold at his peak before it's too established that he's not the caliber of player many people hoped.

Royce on the other hand struggled in the minors in addition to having significant injury issues, but has been a flat out dominant MLB caliber player since his debut.

I think the latter scenario is the more likely scenario where a player would be considered off the table.

Both are former top prospects but now that they're both in the MLB, their minor league production is irrelevant. The one proving they can produce at an elite level in the MLB is the one the team is going to want to build around. 

[tony&rodney]

51 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Royce on the other hand struggled in the minors in addition to having significant injury issues, but has been a flat out dominant MLB caliber player since his debut.

I think the latter scenario is the more likely scenario where a player would be considered off the table.

I like this explanation and I would guess this is why so many people hold Royce Lewis in such high esteem. How does a guy like Julien fit? He just keeps getting better and his adjustments have been impressive. One thing that will be tested next season is how all of the young players respond in their second year of MLB.

[Nine of twelve]

9 hours ago, UK Twin said:

Well, Correa and Buxton are untouchable by default due to their full no trade clauses.

And that is the entire list.

[ashbury]

This thread predictably became a discussion of semantics of a word in the headline rather than baseball.

[saviking]

22 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I imagine a healthy Buxton in CF for 140 games and a healthy C4 at SS for 157 games. Both playing at all star level results. You can't buy that in this offseason for what we are paying them and we might already have it rostered with no trade clauses at under $50M. 

If I can have fantasy's so can you! I actually hope you are right

[Nine of twelve]

13 hours ago, ashbury said:

This thread predictably became a discussion of semantics of a word in the headline rather than baseball.

Is this an indictment of the headline or an indictment of the discussion?

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

Is this an indictment of the headline or an indictment of the discussion?

Either way it hasn't been too useful IMO.

[Squirrel]

15 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

And that is the entire list.

They could waive them ... don't want to imagine the circumstances of that because it wouldn't be good, but, technically, just sayin' ... so the list is zero.

[Squirrel]

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Either way it hasn't been too useful IMO.

A better survey would be, who would you trade for the right offer that is likely never going to happen?

[ashbury]

17 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

A better survey would be, who would you trade for the right offer that is likely never going to happen?

I think of it as the GM's "you're wasting your time and mine" list.  More succinct ways to state that have already been rejected or would violate site standards.

[Cody Pirkl]

20 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I like this explanation and I would guess this is why so many people hold Royce Lewis in such high esteem. How does a guy like Julien fit? He just keeps getting better and his adjustments have been impressive. One thing that will be tested next season is how all of the young players respond in their second year of MLB.

I've got Julien right on the line of untouchable personally but his defensive questions make me wonder if they wouldn't listen if a team really wanted him. I'd love to keep him because to debut as a leadoff caliber hitter with such elite plate discipline has me dreaming of what he could be if he continues to adjust. 

[RpR]

On 12/5/2023 at 9:28 AM, UK Twin said:

Well, Correa and Buxton are untouchable by default due to their full no trade clauses.

And that is the entire list.

Nine of Twelve summed up the answer quickly. 

[Nine of twelve]

6 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Is this an indictment of the headline or an indictment of the discussion?

 

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

Either way it hasn't been too useful IMO.

Exactly why I hardly ever read trade rumor/proposal threads. I didn't really read this one, merely scanned it to see if anyone had already posted what I thought.

[Nine of twelve]

5 hours ago, Squirrel said:

A better survey would be, who would you trade for the right offer that is likely never going to happen?

Or, similarly: who would require the biggest overpayment in order to be traded?

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

 

Exactly why I hardly ever read trade rumor/proposal threads. I didn't really read this one, merely scanned it to see if anyone had already posted what I thought.

.... except when you manage to comment, right? 

Also, I'm pretty sure that individual thoughts are .... singular. 

The Twins most certainly identify players that they will see as "Keepers" to use a word different than untouchable.