Justin Turner Could Be the Next Boomstick For the Twins

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins made a modest investment in Nelson Cruz when they signed the then-38-year-old before the 2019 season, and were repaid exponentially with more than two years of offensive firepower. Can Justin Turner fill a similar role for the club this time around? 

Image courtesy of Brian Fluharty, Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

As the Twins jump head-first into the offseason, their needs are pretty straightforward. They have to figure out how to replicate Sonny Gray’s production atop the starting rotation, they need to find a centerfielder to replace Michael A. Taylor, and they should look to fortify their relief corps. Along with that trio of items on their checklist, the club will be on the lookout for a middle-of-the-lineup bat that can mash left-handed pitching. 

Could Justin Turner fit that bill? 

Sure, there are plenty of reasons to be hesitant about bringing in a veteran of 15 years at this stage of his career. Turner is entering his age-39 season, is becoming increasingly limited defensively, and will almost certainly command a two-year deal on the open market. 

But those same factors were true for Nelson Cruz heading into 2019, and he is bound to go down as one of the best free agent signings in team history. 

So would Turner be a good fit for a similar role with the Twins in 2024?

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The Need

The Twins were delighted to get as much value as they did out of veteran Donovan Solano this season, especially considering his affordable $2 million price tag. He hit .282/.369/.391 (116 wRC+) while playing in 134 games, mostly seeing time as the right-handed side of a platoon at first base. 

Now that he’s a free agent, the Twins will surely want to fill his hole on the roster with more offensive ceiling, but without giving up much on the defensive side of the coin. They need someone who can provide a major boost against left-handed pitching, but can also hold their own if given at-bats against righties. And with the departure of a handful of respected players leaving the clubhouse for free agency, the Twins may want another respected veteran to come in and help establish a winning culture in the dugout. If possible, someone with a plethora of experience having success in the postseason would be icing on the cake. 

While the Twins’ financial capacity is still being determined as they wait for a new TV deal, the assumption is that they will have the ability to take on at least one or two mid-level salaries as they try to fortify the roster. But with so many young sluggers emerging as options for the big league club, with even more shining in the minor leagues, the Twins will want the flexibility of a short-term deal if they are to cast their line into the free agency pond. 

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The Fit

That’s where Turner fits in rather seamlessly. He’s coming off of yet another stellar campaign with the Boston Red Sox where he hit .276/.345/.455 (114 wRC+), belting 23 home runs and driving in 96 runs in 146 games played. While that type of production is a slight step down from his heyday with the Los Angeles Dodgers, it shows that he still possesses a game-changing bat even in his late-thirties. He is still highly potent against southpaws, where he hit .285/.372/.528 (142 wRC+), and he held his own against righties, hitting .273/.335/.430 (105 wRC+). Simply put, Turner’s bat is his calling card, and he’s shown that there is still plenty left in the tank from an offensive standpoint. 

 

While most of his time was spent in the designated hitter role in 2023, he did play 41 games at first base, and 17 games between second and third base. He looked stretched at the hot corner, and just passable at second, but Turner looked rock-solid as a first-baseman when the Sox needed him. His play was worth three Defensive Runs Saved in that limited time, which would be a massive improvement over what the Twins got from Solano (-3 DRS) and Alex Kirilloff (-8 DRS) in 2023. With Solano entering free agency, and Kirilloff’s health remaining a question mark, Turner could be an excellent platoon bat that remains valuable as an everyday player if needed. 

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The Contract

Turner became a free agent last week by opting out of the second year of his deal with Boston, instead choosing a buyout worth roughly $6.7 million. Had he decided to remain a Red Sox, he would’ve secured a $13.4 million paycheck. But opting out gives him the opportunity to seek another multi-year commitment that he can add to his buyout bonus. Given the fact that he will be entering his age-39 season, a two-year pact seems like the sweet spot for what he should be seeking.

For what it’s worth, the Red Sox could still try to bring him back. He made it clear that he enjoyed his time in Boston, and they recognize the strong season he just completed. However, they find themselves saddled with the burden of a few other pricey contracts for players that are likely past their prime. Chris Sale, Trevor Story and Kenley Jansen are owed a combined $89.3 million over the next two years, with another $46.6 million on the hook if Story declines to opt out of his contract after 2025. 

The Twins are familiar with the type of deal that will likely be required to nab Turner. They signed Cruz to a one-year, $14 million contract for 2019, with a $12 million club option for the following season. It was a no-brainer for them to pick up that 2020 option, and they then inked him for $13 million in 2021. If they do bring Turner in on a short-term deal and things go south for the club, they could even ship him off at the trade deadline as they did with Cruz in 2021. But regardless, Turner shouldn’t command a lengthy deal that hampers the club’s future, and he has the ceiling to be a true difference-maker in the lineup.  

 

What do you think? Would Justin Turner be a good fit for the Twins if he were to command a similar deal to Cruz prior to 2019? Who else would you rather see the Twins bring in as an affordable, middle-of-the-order bat? Let us know your thoughts in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet.  

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[Blyleven2011]

Won't happen but could have been a nice fit for a short term deal  , see payroll ....

Good player but as mentioned his defensive liabilities are diminishing  ...

We have a DH already ...

[CRF]

A few years ago, I would've liked to have seen this happen. Not now. I'd pass on Turner. 

[nicksaviking]

They do need a big bat for the middle of the lineup. The Nelson Cruz and Jim Thome route has worked in the past. Turner isn't exactly the slugger those two were but he's still a good hitter. J.D. Martinez would probably fit that mold better, but he won't work since the team won't know about Buxton's health yet; DH likely needs to be reserved for now.

[Old Crow]

No,  too many other higher priority needs.

[Swing Batter-Batter]

Did you not see the interview with Falvey? 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I think the Twins have too many other 2024 options at 1B and DH. There are unanswered questions about Kirilloff and Buck's  health and about Miranda's mysterious (probably shoulder related) reduction in hitting ability and Brooks Lee and Polo and Julien (one of whom might need to DH and/or play 1B) for the Twins to sign an expensive 39 year old player for 1B and DH. Your fine article pointed out the possible advantages of signing Turner. However, I believe I would pass on signing Turner. The Twins were projected by Fangraphs just this week of having the 6th best offense in the majors in 2024, even considering that none of the free agents will return (Solano, Gallo, Taylor, and whoever else). 

[Karbo]

With the TV deal still unknown, and the Twins cutting payroll, IMO they need to put the money into a mid level starter and at least 1 or 2 set up type relievers. If its still looking like Buck is a no go in the field, they also need a glove 1st type CF. Although IMO they should give Martin a chance in CF, nobody can say if he will cut it out there. Beside that, Martin doesn't really fit the mold of the FO wanting more power. I personally think a high on base guy with speed would really compliment the lineup, but we've seen over the past few years that's not the way this FO thinks.

[JD-TWINS]

Don’t understand the logic behind signing a guy with diminishing defensive skills & him being inserted at DH when we have a guy under contract with the same issues & the need for him to DH. If healed by April - Buxton can’t play CF at more than a 40% rate……DH another 35-40%. IF HE DOESN’T heal he’s a DH 70% of the time.

I believe the Twins should commit to Kirilloff being their 1B answer. I get his health may be in question but I don’t think it’s worth signing Justin Turner for 2 years as a back-up plan.

Turner at DH is great if Buxton is “healthy” & playing OF.

What happens when Lee is ready mid-summer and Julien is ready to DH v. every RH pitcher we see?

Let’s let our youth come forward mid-season and until then we can utilize what’s under contract. Why not sign Donnie B for $4M to fill same roll as last year? His BA is solid …..his D at 1B is OK. He’s clutch & affordable. Turner brings more Pop, yes - we already lead the league in HR.

[JD-TWINS]

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

With the TV deal still unknown, and the Twins cutting payroll, IMO they need to put the money into a mid level starter and at least 1 or 2 set up type relievers. If its still looking like Buck is a no go in the field, they also need a glove 1st type CF. Although IMO they should give Martin a chance in CF, nobody can say if he will cut it out there. Beside that, Martin doesn't really fit the mold of the FO wanting more power. I personally think a high on base guy with speed would really compliment the lineup, but we've seen over the past few years that's not the way this FO thinks.

Since Martin is a question mark - Buxton is a question mark - why wouldn’t we sign Taylor? Great defense, not just OK, & he hit 21 HR…….maybe $6M/yr?

[HrbieFan]

8 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I think the Twins have too many other 2024 options at 1B and DH. There are unanswered questions about Kirilloff and Buck's  health and about Miranda's mysterious (probably shoulder related) reduction in hitting ability and Brooks Lee and Polo and Julien (one of whom might need to DH and/or play 1B) for the Twins to sign an expensive 39 year old player for 1B and DH. Your fine article pointed out the possible advantages of signing Turner. However, I believe I would pass on signing Turner. The Twins were projected by Fangraphs just this week of having the 6th best offense in the majors in 2024, even considering that none of the free agents will return (Solano, Gallo, Taylor, and whoever else). 

100% agree with this take! We have in house options until Kirilloff comes back.  I'd also expect us to bring in a guy or 2 in February that hasn't gotten a MLB offer. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I actually really like this idea. I hadn't thought of it, but they should have the payroll room. And they could certainly use some stability both at 1B (occasionally) and in the middle of the lineup. He doesn't strike out, he takes good at bats, and has a little pop.

If you look at him as a souped up version of what Solano provided last year, it makes all the sense in the world.

Plus I'd IMAGINE they bring in a starter via trade (so his salary for 2024 will be lower) and I would also guess at least one of Polanco/Farmer/Kepler (if not all 3) are traded. They will have ample room for a move like this, a good reliever, and probably more.

I'm not going to worry and say the sky is falling for payroll purposes. I'll choose to wait until the end of spring training to complain or not about what the salary will be for 2024.

 

[jmlease1]

23 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I think the Twins have too many other 2024 options at 1B and DH. There are unanswered questions about Kirilloff and Buck's  health and about Miranda's mysterious (probably shoulder related) reduction in hitting ability and Brooks Lee and Polo and Julien (one of whom might need to DH and/or play 1B) for the Twins to sign an expensive 39 year old player for 1B and DH. Your fine article pointed out the possible advantages of signing Turner. However, I believe I would pass on signing Turner. The Twins were projected by Fangraphs just this week of having the 6th best offense in the majors in 2024, even considering that none of the free agents will return (Solano, Gallo, Taylor, and whoever else). 

I think this is right. I think the Twins internal options at 1B are pretty solid (Kirilloff's surgery was relatively minor, Miranda's RH bat would be a good fit to take the Solano role if he comes back healthy, and the Twins just added Severino (a switch-hitter) to the 40-man) and unless the Twins deal Polanco or Farmer, there's not a lot of space on the 26-man roster. Julien is also capable of playing 1B if Polanco isn't moved and I'm not sure we'd be doing all that much to improve the lineup by swapping Polanco's bat for Turner's and paying more.

It's important to realize that Turner's splits historically have been pretty neutral; last season's destruction of LHP is the aberration not the rule. Maybe he's going to trend that way as he winds down his career...or maybe it was a blip from a relatively small sample size. Now, he's a very good hitter, period, even at this age so he's certainly a reasonable fit. (interesting how he's been so much better in his 30's than his 20's!)

I think I would still rather keep Polanco than try and grab Turner (It's hard to see it being possible to have both, both from a roster space and a payroll standpoint).

[mnfireman]

If Turner plays CF sign him, if not let somebody else...

[farmerguychris]

Is he offering to work for free?  If not - I don't expect him to be here.

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I have been saying for a while that I believe signing Justin Turner to a contract should be a top non-pitching priority for the Twins.  Look a the situation:

- Right handed professional hitter
- Plays positions the Twins have depth and question issues (Kiriloff is a complete unknown right now, 3B depth for Lewis).
- Relatively speaking he will not cost much.  1-2 yrs at $10m per could do it.
- There really is nobody in the minors truly pushing at 1B.
- By all accounts he is a leader and a great clubhouse guy.

You would essentially be replacing Gallo and Solano with Turner, both in salary and positional need.  Kiriloff could easily see time in the OF and 1B if he is 100% healthy.  Turner does not need to be a full-time DH.  Figure 80-100 games at 1B, 20 games at 3B, with some DH sprinkled in.

I also don't believe the Twins will be cutting payroll, regardless of the talk and innuendo coming out of the FO.  A television contract will be coming to replace those dollars at some point.  There is no way they will back off of the on-the-field gains they have made over the last few years.  Signing Turner is replacing current salary, not adding.

This needs to happen now.

[Teddy]

1 hour ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

Did you not see the interview with Falvey? 

I agree. I just don't see the funds available for that type of contract. Frankly, I'd rather see what we have in some of the youngsters coming up the in the farm system.

[Mike Sixel]

Pretty big risk signing a DH first guy with Buxton on the roster......Also, you have AK, Miranda, and maybe Julien for first. And Severino. I don't know......I'd rather spend on a CF and SP than a DH/1B at this point. 

[DocBauer]

He's actually a very good fit. He's still an excellent hitter with power. He covers 1B if/when AK is out, or at least platoons there with him. He can also split his time between DH and the occasional 2B/3B game.

And in reality, just like you need more than 5 starters over the course of a season, you certainly play more than 13 position players. So you can make him fit in that way as well. (Buxton alone, unfortunately, will be on the IL 40-60 ganes).

But how do you afford to sign him? If the payroll is $140M-ish, and stands at $117M at the moment, thats about $23M to add to the roster, and you still need to add a rotation arm first and foremost. Even if you trade for one, there is a financial cost involved. Then, you need a reliable alternative for CF, unless you are just going to trust it to Helman, Martin, or Kiersey right off the bat as the #2 guy. 

I suppose Farmer could be gone, and that's another $6M to put in to the pot. But I don't see how there's room to add Turner after you take care of the other 2 priorities. So then what? We remove a good, important bat like Polanco to add another one? I'd call that a wash, not an improvement. 

I like the Turner add a lot. I just don't see a financial fit unless some things break just right.

[Brandon]

I kind of think resigning Solano and his 116 wRC+ for 4 million over Turner and his 114 wRC+ for 2 year 26 million contract will be the priority if the Twins decide to bring in more depth at 1B / 3B  / 2B and DH.  

[Oldgoat_MN]

Read an article with FA salary projections. They were saying Turner would cost about $12M for one year. Same article said Mitch Garver would cost $16M for 2 years.

If you were seriously considering Turner as DH you'd be getting better productivity for less with Garver.

Those folks who write salary projections don't always math well.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Pretty big risk signing a DH first guy with Buxton on the roster......Also, you have AK, Miranda, and maybe Julien for first. And Severino. I don't know......I'd rather spend on a CF and SP than a DH/1B at this point. 

Pretty sure the idea would be to put him at 1B.

I don't see any free agent CFs I want to hand a full-time starting job, and the pitchers who'd be willing to meet this club's demand of a two, maybe three year max deal I almost certainly won't want as Gray's replacement.

So the only spots I'd look to make an impact in free agency, really would be 1B or corner OF. My requirements would be someone who has a track record of consistent above average offense and someone who is not a strikeout liability. Outside of the not-happening Cody Bellinger, Turner and Rhys Hoskins are really the only ones who meet what I want. I could go with Lourdes Gurriel, but I am disappointed in his on base skills. He doesn't strike out a ton and doesn't take a lot of pitches, so I suppose if he gets indoctrinated into the new Twins hitting approach, maybe he'd get on base more and still not have a strikeout issue. I'm going to put a mental pin in that one and think on that more.

There's just not that much that excites me in free agency this year. 

[MGM4706]

No! Not is the class of Cruz. But lets put Lewis at first and bring up our prospects for 3rd.

And just becuase Taylor is a Free Agent doesn't mean they wont resign him. Great defense and he hit 20+ home runs.

[Jeff K]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Don’t understand the logic behind signing a guy with diminishing defensive skills & him being inserted at DH when we have a guy under contract with the same issues & the need for him to DH. If healed by April - Buxton can’t play CF at more than a 40% rate……DH another 35-40%. IF HE DOESN’T heal he’s a DH 70% of the time.

I believe the Twins should commit to Kirilloff being their 1B answer. I get his health may be in question but I don’t think it’s worth signing Justin Turner for 2 years as a back-up plan.

Turner at DH is great if Buxton is “healthy” & playing OF.

What happens when Lee is ready mid-summer and Julien is ready to DH v. every RH pitcher we see?

Let’s let our youth come forward mid-season and until then we can utilize what’s under contract. Why not sign Donnie B for $4M to fill same roll as last year? His BA is solid …..his D at 1B is OK. He’s clutch & affordable. Turner brings more Pop, yes - we already lead the league in HR.

The only thing I disagree with is with Kirilloff.  I am reasonably bullish on his health (maybe too much so).  With that in mind, Kirilloff could also fit into the corner outfield equation, especially if the Twins move Kepler for payroll reasons.  If that is the case, then there is a reasonable argument for Turner.  I am apparently less bullish on Miranda than most and don't see him on the team.

[jmlease1]

My bigger issue with bringing in someone like Turner is the only way to do it is to trade Farmer or Polanco, because there just isn't a roster spot otherwise, and while moving Farmer opens up some salary and a roster spot, we lose positional flexibility and defense. Moving Polanco will pretty much offset the salary, but it's unclear to me if the move upgrades the offense much (except against LHP) and again, you lose positional flexibility.

Right now, the Twins are going to have 13 position players on the 26-man roster. Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Vazquez, Castro, and Farmer all have jobs. That's 12, and we still need one more OF, preferably one who can play CF (otherwise we're relying on Castro a lot). Turner is not an OF, so signing him while keeping everyone else means that Kirilloff has to play the OF and the only backup CF is Castro.

Maybe trading Polanco for pitching and signing Turner works, but I get nervous about FA moves that rely on a trade as well.

[Guest]

Sure, didn't TD just write that Falvey says the team has plenty of money lying around....

[jjswol]

It would be a bad idea to spend what little money the  Twins will have to spend on Turner. A DH is probably one of he last things the Twins neeed right now.

[KBJ1]

At $15M / yr for a 39 yr old DH. No freaking way. Solano at $3M is a much more reasonable option. We need a slugging LF & a SP and maybe 30M to spend for both. 

[rv78]

To me it is very simple. When the Twins signed Cruz they needed a DH. Now they don't. Unless they move Kirilloff to the OF and sign Turner to play 1B it doesn't happen. Kirilloff doesn't go to the OF unless they trade Kepler or move Kepler to CF. I still think Polanco is the odd man out with the emergence of Julien. Or if Polanco stays, Julien might get traded for starting pitching albeit another "Arraez surprise type of trade" no one sees coming. Afterall, Polanco is still tied to the Twins through 2025 and by then Brooks Lee will be ready to play 2B possibly making Julien expendable to this FO that only wishes for HR and Strikeouts.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

Read an article with FA salary projections. They were saying Turner would cost about $12M for one year. Same article said Mitch Garver would cost $16M for 2 years.

If you were seriously considering Turner as DH you'd be getting better productivity for less with Garver.

Those folks who write salary projections don't always math well.

Garver could be the third string C to give protection in case the guy we just added to roster can't make it as the backup and we trade Vazquez.