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As the Twins jump head-first into the offseason, their needs are pretty straightforward. They have to figure out how to replicate Sonny Gray’s production atop the starting rotation, they need to find a centerfielder to replace Michael A. Taylor, and they should look to fortify their relief corps. Along with that trio of items on their checklist, the club will be on the lookout for a middle-of-the-lineup bat that can mash left-handed pitching.
Could Justin Turner fit that bill?
Sure, there are plenty of reasons to be hesitant about bringing in a veteran of 15 years at this stage of his career. Turner is entering his age-39 season, is becoming increasingly limited defensively, and will almost certainly command a two-year deal on the open market.
But those same factors were true for Nelson Cruz heading into 2019, and he is bound to go down as one of the best free agent signings in team history.
So would Turner be a good fit for a similar role with the Twins in 2024?
The Need
The Twins were delighted to get as much value as they did out of veteran Donovan Solano this season, especially considering his affordable $2 million price tag. He hit .282/.369/.391 (116 wRC+) while playing in 134 games, mostly seeing time as the right-handed side of a platoon at first base.
Now that he’s a free agent, the Twins will surely want to fill his hole on the roster with more offensive ceiling, but without giving up much on the defensive side of the coin. They need someone who can provide a major boost against left-handed pitching, but can also hold their own if given at-bats against righties. And with the departure of a handful of respected players leaving the clubhouse for free agency, the Twins may want another respected veteran to come in and help establish a winning culture in the dugout. If possible, someone with a plethora of experience having success in the postseason would be icing on the cake.
While the Twins’ financial capacity is still being determined as they wait for a new TV deal, the assumption is that they will have the ability to take on at least one or two mid-level salaries as they try to fortify the roster. But with so many young sluggers emerging as options for the big league club, with even more shining in the minor leagues, the Twins will want the flexibility of a short-term deal if they are to cast their line into the free agency pond.
The Fit
That’s where Turner fits in rather seamlessly. He’s coming off of yet another stellar campaign with the Boston Red Sox where he hit .276/.345/.455 (114 wRC+), belting 23 home runs and driving in 96 runs in 146 games played. While that type of production is a slight step down from his heyday with the Los Angeles Dodgers, it shows that he still possesses a game-changing bat even in his late-thirties. He is still highly potent against southpaws, where he hit .285/.372/.528 (142 wRC+), and he held his own against righties, hitting .273/.335/.430 (105 wRC+). Simply put, Turner’s bat is his calling card, and he’s shown that there is still plenty left in the tank from an offensive standpoint.
While most of his time was spent in the designated hitter role in 2023, he did play 41 games at first base, and 17 games between second and third base. He looked stretched at the hot corner, and just passable at second, but Turner looked rock-solid as a first-baseman when the Sox needed him. His play was worth three Defensive Runs Saved in that limited time, which would be a massive improvement over what the Twins got from Solano (-3 DRS) and Alex Kirilloff (-8 DRS) in 2023. With Solano entering free agency, and Kirilloff’s health remaining a question mark, Turner could be an excellent platoon bat that remains valuable as an everyday player if needed.
The Contract
Turner became a free agent last week by opting out of the second year of his deal with Boston, instead choosing a buyout worth roughly $6.7 million. Had he decided to remain a Red Sox, he would’ve secured a $13.4 million paycheck. But opting out gives him the opportunity to seek another multi-year commitment that he can add to his buyout bonus. Given the fact that he will be entering his age-39 season, a two-year pact seems like the sweet spot for what he should be seeking.
For what it’s worth, the Red Sox could still try to bring him back. He made it clear that he enjoyed his time in Boston, and they recognize the strong season he just completed. However, they find themselves saddled with the burden of a few other pricey contracts for players that are likely past their prime. Chris Sale, Trevor Story and Kenley Jansen are owed a combined $89.3 million over the next two years, with another $46.6 million on the hook if Story declines to opt out of his contract after 2025.
The Twins are familiar with the type of deal that will likely be required to nab Turner. They signed Cruz to a one-year, $14 million contract for 2019, with a $12 million club option for the following season. It was a no-brainer for them to pick up that 2020 option, and they then inked him for $13 million in 2021. If they do bring Turner in on a short-term deal and things go south for the club, they could even ship him off at the trade deadline as they did with Cruz in 2021. But regardless, Turner shouldn’t command a lengthy deal that hampers the club’s future, and he has the ceiling to be a true difference-maker in the lineup.
What do you think? Would Justin Turner be a good fit for the Twins if he were to command a similar deal to Cruz prior to 2019? Who else would you rather see the Twins bring in as an affordable, middle-of-the-order bat? Let us know your thoughts in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet.
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