Matt Canterino: Bullpen Force?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins have a history of turning former starters into top-tier relievers. Matt Canterino will be back from Tommy John surgery in 2024. Could the Twins make this transition once again?

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

Matt Canterino’s nasty stuff has been advertised to fans since he was drafted in the second round in 2019. The former Rice pitcher threw many collegiate innings, and it’s possible this finally caught up to him in 2022. Could Canterino transition to a bullpen role and impact the 2024 Twins?

The concept of taking Canterino out of a starting role is difficult to imagine, given his repertoire and the success it’s brought him in the minor leagues. With a mid-90s fastball and formidable slider and changeup, he has everything he needs to carve through opposing lineups. He’s struck out well over one-third of the hitters he’s faced in the minor leagues and made it as far as Double-A. What sense does it make then to move Canterino out of a starting job?

The concern at this point has to be creating an innings floor for Canterino. His career high in innings for a given year was the 37 he threw in 2022 before requiring elbow surgery. While the hope is that this has finally fixed the problems that have kept him off the field, his workload must be managed carefully. It’s hard to say where his innings limit will be, but it’s possibly well under 100 to ensure he’s healthy moving forward.

The problem here is that even if the Twins' eyes are on a 2025 debut for Canterino in the rotation, his inning cap – even if all goes well – is likely only over 100 innings. No matter how effective he is, he wouldn’t be available for the entire season. That’s also assuming he stays healthy for an entire season for the first time in his professional career.

The Twins could look to play the long game in pursuit of the top-tier starting pitcher Canterino could become, but the issue is that he’ll already be 26 years old in 2024. Next year will mark five years since Canterino was drafted, and it may be time for the Twins to rush him to the majors to help the big league club. 

We saw this play out most recently with Jhoan Duran. The Twins saw his numbers and raw stuff and determined they were better off letting him impact the MLB club rather than continuing to gamble on everything breaking the right way in the minor leagues. While Canterino doesn’t throw 104 with a 98 mph splitter, he could have a significant impact in a bullpen role. 

For how dominant he was in the minor leagues as a starting pitcher, it’s easy to see Canterino taking a bullpen role and running with it. More velocity on the fastball and being able to focus on the best possible pitch for each hitter rather than trying to mix things up for another trip through the lineup could make him another bullpen monster.

It’s also a role that some scouts thought he would eventually settle into when drafted. Aside from his raw stuff, the funky delivery adds another element that would undoubtedly play up in short stints.

It’s unclear what the Twins have in mind with Matt Canterino headed into 2024, but they may have seen enough talent from him that they’re confident he can get MLB hitters out once he shakes off some rust next season. The quickest way for him to be a contributor would be a shift to the bullpen, where the Twins rarely invest in the trade and free-agent market. Could Matt Canterino make the bullpen transition in 2024? 

 

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[Karbo]

Another pitcher from Rice with arm trouble. Sure seems like a common issue with Rice. Obviously, coming off surgery will mean a pretty tight innings limit for him. This may be a season to put him in a relief role, at least for a trial run. Maybe next season try to stretch him out more if they have a need in the rotation. If they decide to leave him in the pen he probably could slot in as a pretty good set-up guy.

[roger]

I expect there isn't any question on his role for '24.  There is no way he is going to pitch over 100 innings, if that many. 

Likely he will be stretched out a bit in spring training, then begin at either AA or AAA pitching 3-4 innings every 5th day to get some innings behind him.  After shaking off the rust, expect a move to the bullpen with him joining the Twins around late May or early June.  Could be the final piece to a tremendous Twins bullpen. 

[Trov]

I would not be surprised if they move him to pen.  As a pro he only threw 37 innings any given season, but his 3 years in college he threw over 90 each season and another 24 in a summer league.  That may have been why he has been injured so much as a pro.  If we are concerned of too many innings moving to pen only makes sense.  A lot of starters have done that, The Twins are not alone in this.  John Smoltz was known for being starter and damn good one for 12 years, then got injured, pitched out of pen for 4 years getting 154 saves over that time, then went back to starter for 5 years, but really just 3 good ones.  

They could do pen for next year at MLB level while trying to build him up innings to get back to starter after.  We moved Varland to pen, but they said he will have chance to start again, he just gave us best chance to win as a pen guy at end of year. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

By the time he finishes coming off of surgery, the resulting therapy, builds his arm strength up, works out two months at Driveline pitching academy, pitches his tight innings limits and trial runs, gets stretched out without any innings limits, gets all the rust shaken off, gets sent up and down a half dozen times to and from AAA to the big leagues, and then adds a sweeper to his repertoire, he will be 34 years old and ready for a one year trial contract with performance incentives as a big league journeyman reliever with the Las Vegas Padres.

[Linus]

I wish him nothing but the best. His role is irrelevant right now as he has two big hurdles to get over. First stay healthy. Second show that he can get AAA hitters out. Until then no point worrying about it and the Twins should not be planning on him for anything. 

[nicksaviking]

Keeping guys like this in the rotation is always tempting, but I'd say rip the band aid off now and let him adjust to the pen.

Hoping for the the best in the rotation seems to work out so infrequently for these hard throwing guys with injury history, so don't waste the options and service time. That's how you end up losing guys before trying them out as a reliever for a full season, which is what I think you need to do. Some guys click right away, like Duran or Taylor Rogers, but most guys need a full year to transition before they become a bullpen asset.

[gman]

It would make sense for him to pitch in relief to begin this year in the minors, maybe at Ft Myers until the weather warms up a bit. I could see him working up to 3 or 4 innings a game and possibly go to the Twins after mid season, But he has been out for most of his time since drafted as mentioned, so getting his control as well as arm strength back will take a while. Any mention anywhere of his off season program?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Likely he will be stretched out a bit in spring training, then begin at either AA or AAA pitching 3-4 innings every 5th day to get some innings behind him.  After shaking off the rust, expect a move to the bullpen with him joining the Twins around late May or early June.  Could be the final piece to a tremendous Twins bullpen. 

I actually hope he's in the bullpen as soon as possible. At age 26 there's no reason to spend any more time on development or worrying about service time. If he's healthy let him pitch in the big leagues.

[Blyleven2011]

I'd have agree with everyone's posted assessments  , relief  bullpen arm , long relief  is also a good possibility   ... 

For someone  that hasn't pitched alot and for them to say he's got filthy stuff says alot for him  , I like to see it for myself   ...

Yes bullpen seems likely and makes the most sense for this year because of his history  of injuries  ...

Ober to had injury concerns throughout the minors and in mlb but he managed to stay healthy this past season ...

[DJL44]

The Twins are pretty good at converting starters to relievers. I'd like to see them try that more often with free agents who have done poorly in the rotation but might have something to unlock in the bullpen. The Orioles were successful doing that with Jorge Lopez and then they dealt him to the Twins for a pretty nice prospect haul. Grab a few guys who are free agent starters with an ERA around 5 and move them to the bullpen in AAA. If you can make 1 Brock Stewart every year it will more than pay for itself.

Example names: Chris Flexen, Jose Urena, Luke Weaver, Justin Dunn, Austin Voth, Julio Teheran, Zach Davies

[Otaknam]

If I was Canterino I’d support a bullpen role if that was the fastest way to the major leagues. He can always transition to starter again as he works innings and gets more experience. 

[saviking]

I think it depends on whether the Twins want him to stay in the minors this year building up his arm strength. Even if they do he will. E on a pitch count. Maybe let him start and then when he's closing in on his max pitch count let him finish up in the pen. 

As much h as I really want to see him in the majors I can wait another year of development as he really  hasn't had much development to date due to injuries.. 

 

[old nurse]

17 games 90+ innings, 17 week season. Math would not say Canterino was overworked in college 

[Steve Lein]

Said this in another thread, but just give up on starting pitching for him already. Let him loose in the bullpen and see if you can get anything out of him.

I'm also a bit confused at the idea of him even being able to be a starter. He's had one outing over 5 innings in his professional career. He's thrown over 70 pitches just 3 times. I think this ship has sailed.

His stuff is absolutely nasty and if you need to manage innings, and I think you obviously need to, the bullpen is the way.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Moo, moo, moove him to the bullpen.

[chpettit19]

As much as I don't like having guys with #1 starter upside moved to the pen, it feels like that's what the call should be for Canterino. Duran had the same conundrum, and people still talk about wanting to put him back in the rotation, but those shutdown bullpen arms are also vital. If Canterino can join Duran and Jax at the back of the pen and form a shutdown trio for the next 4 years that'd be a huge box checked off on the to do list. Maybe Varland ends up there as well at some point over the next year or 2. If you can turn every playoff game into a 6 inning game for the opponent's offense you're in good shape. If Canterino can be that type of reliever that's the move I'd make. Him building up to a true starter's workload (even in this age of reduced starter innings) likely takes too long. If he can be a pen force starting in 2024 that's what I'd do.

[mikelink45]

I don't have an opinion.  I need to see what he has when he returns.  We read reviews about Winder and Balazovic in the past and they still look lost in the BP and the majors.  I love the idea of building a starter, but is he going to be a health risk going forward?  

I never mind seeing a starter (Santana) start in the BP, but I do not like to see them stuck there. 

[Brandon]

Canterino to the pen?  Well somebody has to replace Pagan.  Canterino would help keep costs down in a year when the Twins need to cut corners to make up for lost TV revenue.  

[TopGunn#22]

Steve Lein pretty much laid this out.  One (1) outing of 5 innings or longer in the minors doesn't make him a SP.  That ship has sailed.  The point now is this:  The guy has crazy good stuff and what I've heard has better command than Duran.  Stop wasting any time on minor league innings and get what you can out of him at the major league level.

With his innings limit in 2024 he's NOT going to be a multi inning RP.  He's a one inning guy who has the chance to be a DOMINANT one inning guy.  Honestly, he doesn't need to prove it to me that he can get AAA hitters out.  His stuff will play at ANY level.  What he has to prove to me is that he can pitch 50-60 innings in a season and stay healthy.  Pagan threw 69 innings last year.  Jax threw 65.  

We drafted him in 2019.  Next season will be 2024.  Get him to spring training and let him showcase what he can do.  If he's blowing guys away why waste time throwing pitches in St. Paul?  Get what you can out of him at the major league level.  The Twins have been drooling over Canterino since they drafted him.  I think once he's up, only durability will hold him back (as it has throughout his minor league career).  But I see him sticking on the big league roster.  His stuff is simply THAT good.  

[High heat]

I think they start the season building him up as a starter, if he is still going 2 3 and 4 inning starts by mid may he will go to the bullpen.

 

At 26 he doesn't have much time to build up to starting.  If he is healthy He can be a productive bullpen arm right away.  You can treat him like you did Varland in 23.  But once you move him to the bullpen he is likely stuck there

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

We drafted him in 2019.  Next season will be 2024.  Get him to spring training and let him showcase what he can do.  If he's blowing guys away why waste time throwing pitches in St. Paul?  

Especially when the alternative is more Cole Sands innings in the big leagues. If you're going to use a cheap guy in low leverage relief use the highest upside guy you have.

[2wins87]

Seems like Canterino could be a candidate to be a sort of bulk and medium to high leverage reliver. 

The Rays have had lots of guys in that role recently, and I've sort of expected the Twins to have similar roles, particularly considering Rocco came from that org.  It seems that once a reliever has had success they are quickly transitioned into a one inning role though.

I don't know if that is mainly Rocco or others in the org.  It may have health/durability benefits, but whatever the reason, there seems to be a philosophy that once a reliver has thrown in the game and then sat down they typically don't throw again in the next inning.

I still think a high-ish leverage bulk role could be the most valuable role for some guys, like Varland maybe and possibly Canterino later on in 2024.

[Fatbat]

For 2024 and his brand new arm, his realistic inning total will be 60-80 most likely inAAA as a starter. If he is dominant, and gets into the 6th or 7th inning in May, he probably will be a call up for some spot starts this season but I would think this spring they will have a pitch limit on him. He is entering his 26yo season so its too early to send him to the bullpen. Stretch him out because his ceiling should still be viewed as a 2-3 SP thru age 33 or so. There are alot of ways his career can go, I’m hoping his new arm will be lights out by 2025. Same with Enlow! Just imagine if Jordan B. hops on that same train. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

17 games 90+ innings, 17 week season. Math would not say Canterino was overworked in college 

It's not about the innings, it's the fact that Rice has a history of letting pitchers throw huge numbers of pitches in those outings. There's a real history at the school of junking players arms by not managing their workloads and letting a guy chuck 100-120 pitches at age 20

I wonder if Canterino might be able to go on the Johan Plan and shift to the bullpen as he works his way back from injury and be a weapon for 2 inning stints in the bullpen for a year or two while they work to build up strength and give him time and game experience and some healthy seasons before shifting him back into the rotation? You would think it would be possible.

He's got the stuff to pitch in the majors to be sure.

[Linus]

I guess I am the curmudgeon (or the voice of reason). Lots of posts here saying he has big league stuff he just has to get there etc. we do realize that he has never got a hitter out above AA right?  No minor league pitcher is guaranteed anything when it comes to being good at the big league level. To assume otherwise is just prospect puppy love. To be clear I want him to be the next great Twins pitcher. Before I assume that he needs to do it. 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are pretty good at converting starters to relievers.

 

Duran, Jax and who?

I am not counting Winder, Varland, Headrick, Balazovic, Sands and Alcala success stories yet.

I think Canterino could be a star relief pitcher and I think the other FA pitchers you listed could be be good as well.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

He is entering his 26yo season so its too early to send him to the bullpen.

This I disagree with. He's 26 and has never had a 6 inning start in his entire career. It's not going to happen. Due to his past injury history his career is more likely to be over at age 30 than it is for him to be a bulk starter. Use him now before his arm falls off completely.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Steve Lein pretty much laid this out.  One (1) outing of 5 innings or longer in the minors doesn't make him a SP.  That ship has sailed.  The point now is this:  The guy has crazy good stuff and what I've heard has better command than Duran.  Stop wasting any time on minor league innings and get what you can out of him at the major league level.

With his innings limit in 2024 he's NOT going to be a multi inning RP.  He's a one inning guy who has the chance to be a DOMINANT one inning guy.  Honestly, he doesn't need to prove it to me that he can get AAA hitters out.  His stuff will play at ANY level.  What he has to prove to me is that he can pitch 50-60 innings in a season and stay healthy.  Pagan threw 69 innings last year.  Jax threw 65.  

We drafted him in 2019.  Next season will be 2024.  Get him to spring training and let him showcase what he can do.  If he's blowing guys away why waste time throwing pitches in St. Paul?  Get what you can out of him at the major league level.  The Twins have been drooling over Canterino since they drafted him.  I think once he's up, only durability will hold him back (as it has throughout his minor league career).  But I see him sticking on the big league roster.  His stuff is simply THAT good.  

This! Additionally, he’s 26 and has only pitched a bit of AA. There’s only so many bullets to be fired and he’s shot a bunch in the minors and college. Don’t let perfection be the enemy of the good.

[nicksaviking]

56 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Duran, Jax and who?

I am not counting Winder, Varland, Headrick, Balazovic, Sands and Alcala success stories yet.

I think Canterino could be a star relief pitcher and I think the other FA pitchers you listed could be be good as well.

Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly, Glen Perkins, Eddie Guardado, LaTroy Hawkins. The Giants did it to Joe Nathan before the Twins got to him. The Twins foolishly DIDN'T do it to Liam Hendricks and the let the Blue Jays use the cheat code on him instead.

Basically any reliever of note the Twins have had this century, except for Jesse Crain, were converted from starters at the MLB level or right before they got called up.