Matt Canterino: Bullpen Force?

I expect there isn't any question on his role for '24.  There is no way he is going to pitch over 100 innings, if that many. 

Likely he will be stretched out a bit in spring training, then begin at either AA or AAA pitching 3-4 innings every 5th day to get some innings behind him.  After shaking off the rust, expect a move to the bullpen with him joining the Twins around late May or early June.  Could be the final piece to a tremendous Twins bullpen. 

I would not be surprised if they move him to pen.  As a pro he only threw 37 innings any given season, but his 3 years in college he threw over 90 each season and another 24 in a summer league.  That may have been why he has been injured so much as a pro.  If we are concerned of too many innings moving to pen only makes sense.  A lot of starters have done that, The Twins are not alone in this.  John Smoltz was known for being starter and damn good one for 12 years, then got injured, pitched out of pen for 4 years getting 154 saves over that time, then went back to starter for 5 years, but really just 3 good ones.  

They could do pen for next year at MLB level while trying to build him up innings to get back to starter after.  We moved Varland to pen, but they said he will have chance to start again, he just gave us best chance to win as a pen guy at end of year. 

I wish him nothing but the best. His role is irrelevant right now as he has two big hurdles to get over. First stay healthy. Second show that he can get AAA hitters out. Until then no point worrying about it and the Twins should not be planning on him for anything. 

1 hour ago, roger said:

Likely he will be stretched out a bit in spring training, then begin at either AA or AAA pitching 3-4 innings every 5th day to get some innings behind him.  After shaking off the rust, expect a move to the bullpen with him joining the Twins around late May or early June.  Could be the final piece to a tremendous Twins bullpen. 

I actually hope he's in the bullpen as soon as possible. At age 26 there's no reason to spend any more time on development or worrying about service time. If he's healthy let him pitch in the big leagues.

I'd have agree with everyone's posted assessments  , relief  bullpen arm , long relief  is also a good possibility   ... 

For someone  that hasn't pitched alot and for them to say he's got filthy stuff says alot for him  , I like to see it for myself   ...

Yes bullpen seems likely and makes the most sense for this year because of his history  of injuries  ...

Ober to had injury concerns throughout the minors and in mlb but he managed to stay healthy this past season ...

The Twins are pretty good at converting starters to relievers. I'd like to see them try that more often with free agents who have done poorly in the rotation but might have something to unlock in the bullpen. The Orioles were successful doing that with Jorge Lopez and then they dealt him to the Twins for a pretty nice prospect haul. Grab a few guys who are free agent starters with an ERA around 5 and move them to the bullpen in AAA. If you can make 1 Brock Stewart every year it will more than pay for itself.

Example names: Chris Flexen, Jose Urena, Luke Weaver, Justin Dunn, Austin Voth, Julio Teheran, Zach Davies

If I was Canterino I’d support a bullpen role if that was the fastest way to the major leagues. He can always transition to starter again as he works innings and gets more experience. 

17 games 90+ innings, 17 week season. Math would not say Canterino was overworked in college 

Canterino to the pen?  Well somebody has to replace Pagan.  Canterino would help keep costs down in a year when the Twins need to cut corners to make up for lost TV revenue.  

Steve Lein pretty much laid this out.  One (1) outing of 5 innings or longer in the minors doesn't make him a SP.  That ship has sailed.  The point now is this:  The guy has crazy good stuff and what I've heard has better command than Duran.  Stop wasting any time on minor league innings and get what you can out of him at the major league level.

With his innings limit in 2024 he's NOT going to be a multi inning RP.  He's a one inning guy who has the chance to be a DOMINANT one inning guy.  Honestly, he doesn't need to prove it to me that he can get AAA hitters out.  His stuff will play at ANY level.  What he has to prove to me is that he can pitch 50-60 innings in a season and stay healthy.  Pagan threw 69 innings last year.  Jax threw 65.  

We drafted him in 2019.  Next season will be 2024.  Get him to spring training and let him showcase what he can do.  If he's blowing guys away why waste time throwing pitches in St. Paul?  Get what you can out of him at the major league level.  The Twins have been drooling over Canterino since they drafted him.  I think once he's up, only durability will hold him back (as it has throughout his minor league career).  But I see him sticking on the big league roster.  His stuff is simply THAT good.  

I think they start the season building him up as a starter, if he is still going 2 3 and 4 inning starts by mid may he will go to the bullpen.

At 26 he doesn't have much time to build up to starting.  If he is healthy He can be a productive bullpen arm right away.  You can treat him like you did Varland in 23.  But once you move him to the bullpen he is likely stuck there

10 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

We drafted him in 2019.  Next season will be 2024.  Get him to spring training and let him showcase what he can do.  If he's blowing guys away why waste time throwing pitches in St. Paul?  

Especially when the alternative is more Cole Sands innings in the big leagues. If you're going to use a cheap guy in low leverage relief use the highest upside guy you have.

Seems like Canterino could be a candidate to be a sort of bulk and medium to high leverage reliver. 

The Rays have had lots of guys in that role recently, and I've sort of expected the Twins to have similar roles, particularly considering Rocco came from that org.  It seems that once a reliever has had success they are quickly transitioned into a one inning role though.

I don't know if that is mainly Rocco or others in the org.  It may have health/durability benefits, but whatever the reason, there seems to be a philosophy that once a reliver has thrown in the game and then sat down they typically don't throw again in the next inning.

I still think a high-ish leverage bulk role could be the most valuable role for some guys, like Varland maybe and possibly Canterino later on in 2024.

For 2024 and his brand new arm, his realistic inning total will be 60-80 most likely inAAA as a starter. If he is dominant, and gets into the 6th or 7th inning in May, he probably will be a call up for some spot starts this season but I would think this spring they will have a pitch limit on him. He is entering his 26yo season so its too early to send him to the bullpen. Stretch him out because his ceiling should still be viewed as a 2-3 SP thru age 33 or so. There are alot of ways his career can go, I’m hoping his new arm will be lights out by 2025. Same with Enlow! Just imagine if Jordan B. hops on that same train. 

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

17 games 90+ innings, 17 week season. Math would not say Canterino was overworked in college 

It's not about the innings, it's the fact that Rice has a history of letting pitchers throw huge numbers of pitches in those outings. There's a real history at the school of junking players arms by not managing their workloads and letting a guy chuck 100-120 pitches at age 20

I wonder if Canterino might be able to go on the Johan Plan and shift to the bullpen as he works his way back from injury and be a weapon for 2 inning stints in the bullpen for a year or two while they work to build up strength and give him time and game experience and some healthy seasons before shifting him back into the rotation? You would think it would be possible.

He's got the stuff to pitch in the majors to be sure.

I guess I am the curmudgeon (or the voice of reason). Lots of posts here saying he has big league stuff he just has to get there etc. we do realize that he has never got a hitter out above AA right?  No minor league pitcher is guaranteed anything when it comes to being good at the big league level. To assume otherwise is just prospect puppy love. To be clear I want him to be the next great Twins pitcher. Before I assume that he needs to do it. 

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are pretty good at converting starters to relievers.

 

Duran, Jax and who?

I am not counting Winder, Varland, Headrick, Balazovic, Sands and Alcala success stories yet.

I think Canterino could be a star relief pitcher and I think the other FA pitchers you listed could be be good as well.

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

He is entering his 26yo season so its too early to send him to the bullpen.

This I disagree with. He's 26 and has never had a 6 inning start in his entire career. It's not going to happen. Due to his past injury history his career is more likely to be over at age 30 than it is for him to be a bulk starter. Use him now before his arm falls off completely.

Just now, nicksaviking said:

Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly, Glen Perkins, Eddie Guardado, LaTroy Hawkins. The Giants did it to Joe Nathan, not the Twins. The Twins foolishly DIDN'T do it to Liam Hendricks and the let the Blue Jays use the cheat code on him instead.

Basically any reliever of note the Twins have had this century, except for Jesse Crain, were converted from starters at the MLB level or right before they got called up.

Ok, I thought you meant this front office.