Three’s Company: 3 Rookies Who Can Join Minnesota’s Young Core in 2024

[Cody Christie]

The Twins saw a trio of rookies emerge as critical cogs in a line-up that struggled in the season’s first half. Here are three rookies who can join the Twins next season and have a similar impact.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

 

It’s hard to imagine how the Twins’ season would have played out without the team’s trio of rookie players. Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner immediately impacted the roster and helped the club win its third division title in the last five seasons. This trio of rookies all had an OPS+ of 130 or higher while establishing themselves at baseball’s highest level. 

There have been few times in baseball history where a rookie trio has compiled better totals than Minnesota’s rookies last season. From a team construction standpoint, it would be in the team’s best interest if their prospect pipeline could continue to produce big-league talent, but that can’t always be the case. There are signs of other prospects joining the Twins next season and producing at a high level. Here’s a look at three players who could be Minnesota’s next great rookie trio. 

Brooks Lee, SS/3B
TD Top Prospect Ranking: 2
The Twins have been aggressive with Lee since taking him with the 8th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. In his professional debut, he played at three levels and finished the season at Double-A, where the Wind Surge were on the way to the Texas League Championship Series. In 2023, Lee started the year at Double-A, hitting .292/.365/.476 (.841) with 31 doubles and 11 home runs in 87 games. He was promoted to Triple-A for the stretch run and posted a .731 OPS at a level where he was nearly 4.5 years younger than the average age of the competition. 

His bat has been his best tool since the Twins drafted him, but there are long-term questions about where he fits on the defensive spectrum. He’s played primarily shortstop in his pro career, but many evaluators feel he will shift to third base as he continues to add muscle to his frame. For the long term, the Twins could employ an infield with Lee at third and shift Lewis over to second base. 

2024 Outlook: Lee will start next season in St. Paul, but he projects to make his big-league debut at some point next season. He’s one of the most advanced hitters to come through the Twins’ system in quite some time, and many national outlets will rank him highly on their top-100 lists this winter. 

Austin Martin, UTL
TD Top Prospect Ranking: 7
Martin’s time in the Twins organization has been a bit of a roller coaster ride. Minnesota added Martin as one of the key prospects in the Jose Berrios trade with Toronto. At the time of the trade, he was considered one of baseball’s top 25 prospects. In 2022, he struggled with a .683 OPS at Double-A while dealing with some injuries. The Twins sent him to the Arizona Fall League following the season, and he destroyed the baseball by hitting .374/.454/.482 (.936) with seven extra-base hits in 21 games. Based on this performance, there were high hopes for him entering the 2023 season. 

Martin suffered a sprained ligament in his right elbow during spring training, and there was a chance he’d need to undergo Tommy John surgery. Instead, he rehabbed the injury and returned to the field in July. In 59 games, he hit .263/.387/.405 (.791) with 11 doubles and six home runs. His days at shortstop are likely behind him, but his athleticism allows him to play center field and second base regularly. 

2024 Outlook: The Twins must continue to get Martin back on track so he can make a meaningful impact at the big-league level. Byron Buxton’s future in center field seems like a long shot, so Martin might be able to play a role at an essential up-the-middle defensive position.  

Yunior Severino, 2B/3B
TD Top Prospect Ranking: 12
Severino had a tremendous season on his way to being named the TD Minor League Hitter of the Year. In 120 games, he hit .272/.352/.546 (.898) with 17 doubles and 35 home runs between Double- and Triple-A. The Twins player development team has worked hard with Severino to make more consistent contact, and he seemed to put it all together at the organization’s two highest minor league levels. Next year, he will be 24 and still young to be playing at Triple-A, so there is hope for him to make continued improvements in the years ahead. 

The Twins will need to add him to the 40-man roster this winter to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, which seems straightforward. Severino has continued to add to his defensive flexibility by playing 125 innings or more at three different infield positions (1B, 2B, 3B). This defensive versatility should help to make him an option when an injury impacts the team’s roster next season. 

2024 Outlook: Other prospects will rate higher than Severino on national prospect lists, but he still has an opportunity to be an above-average player at the big-league level. There are other prospects ahead of him on the team’s depth chart, but look for him to debut in the second half of 2024. 

What kind of impact can these players have on the 2024 roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[rv78]

Trade Polanco for pitching. Insert Lee. Delegate Buxton to the bench, he's only a part-time player anyway. Insert Martin. Say goodbye to Solano. Insert Severino. A 3 way win, win, win. The youth movement continues and the team gets better.

[Karbo]

Depending on what happens with FA signings and trades, it might be time to call on Martin to be the main CF replacement for Buxton. 

[Guest]

Lee has a very efficient stroke; hands stay tight, back and still until he unloads, quick bat, head stays still and not a lot of leg/hip movement until he unloads, very projectible.  But why would Lee play 3B and Lewis 2B?  I would think it the other way round.

Martin seems straight out of a Torey Lovullo wet dream.  Good plate discipline, makes contact, enough speed to turn walks into doubles and can plug into a number of positions.  I'd give 50-50 Martin is in the bigs by June if not out of spring training.  He does everything Castro and Gordon do (except power tool) with better plate discipline.

Yunior is a very, very interesting cat.  It would be nice if he adjusts his plate discipline as well as Wallner did.  He'll start '24 at St. Paul and we'll see....

[Jkeady12]

Any thoughts on Michael Helman? He looks good when he is healthy. 

[saviking]

I'm contemplating this statement

Byron Buxton’s future in center field seems like a long shot, so Martin might be able to play a role at an essential up-the-middle defensive position.

And it begs the question, if not center field, where? 

I have brought up splitting between first base when facing left handed pitching and DH but have been knocked for the first base idea. I guess they could try a corner outfield position hoping it's less strain on his knee. 

What about knee replacement sugary  :) 

[specialiststeve]

Really believe that buying out Polanco and Max is a likely scenario given it would save about 18 million and we could use that money to work on one more starter and given we have ready-made replacements that are comparable other than experience. 

That given the case...

Do believe that Royce is WAY better suited to 3rd than Lee given his body makeup. I Think that Lee would be an all star at 2nd and fits perfectly there. 

Martin is a bit tougher. His inconsistent plate performance lends me to think he will start in AAA and come up as a utility guy. 

Severino needs to work on his SO's.. way too high but his production is very good. Would believe they would protect him on the 40 man... nice insurance for a DH type guy. 

All in all .. think we will see Lee starting at 2B early next year.. 

 

[jmlease1]

All three of these players could be factors for the Twins next season. I'd add a 4th: Jair Camargo, in part because the bat has really developed and in part because it just seems unlikely the Twins will beat the odds and only use 2 catchers next season.

I'm a huge Brooks Lee fan, but I'm not interested in dumping Polanco to hand Lee a position. He played well last season, but his bat didn't exactly dominate last year, especially in AAA, certainly not enough to hand him a starting job in MLB from Day One. No scholarships; if he's good enough to win the job, go out and win the job by looking great in spring training, destroying AAA, and forcing his way onto the roster.

Martin is a player I find very interesting. He gets on base, he's a quality baserunner who will get steals, he's got good contact skills, and he can play all 3 OF positions and 2B. The RH bat makes him a nice fit as a 4th OF, but it would be a real risk to make him the backup CF out the gate. We don't know how well he's going to hit in MLB.

Severino is a player whose development makes me feel comfortable about not needing to get 1B depth behind Kirilloff, if he's slow to recover from surgery in the offseason. He's going to K way more than some will find acceptable, but the ball explodes off his bat and he's got the hit tool to be successful. I haven't liked his D at 3B, and I think 1B is where his future is, but that's ok. His switch-hitting makes him a little more interesting and could increase his value.

Depth was hugely important for the Twins in 2023; players like this make me hopeful it will be a strength again.

[Otaknam]

38 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Trade Polanco for pitching. Insert Lee. Delegate Buxton to the bench, he's only a part-time player anyway. Insert Martin. Say goodbye to Solano. Insert Severino. A 3 way win, win, win. The youth movement continues and the team gets better.

 

 I’m as frustrated as you are with Buxton’s injury history, but benching him makes no sense! If he can get healthy he’s a dynamic talent. Hopefully he can play 125 games in 2024 and play outfield. 2024 seems like a make or break year to see if he is a full time player or not. Then reassess.

 

[mikelink45]

I have less faith in Martin than the article or the commentators express.  I still prefer to have Taylor out there.  

We are accumulating so much infield talent that we have to figure out trades to clear the path.  Just think what we would have if Steer and Encarnion-Strand were still with us.  Of course that also brings up the thought that we need to be careful about who we expend prospect talent on. 

I think that there are a few more players that could be added to this list.  I do hope we have a pitcher or two that can be better than the Headrick/Winder/Sands trio. 

[Riverbrian]

I get the desire to rush Brooks Lee. I'm excited about his future with us as well. 

However, rushing him to the big leagues when he isn't rule 5 eligible until 2025 is incredibly careless at worst... risky at best. 

There is no reason to place him on the 40 man roster unless he is going on the 26 man roster. You have to be 1,000 percent positive that he is going to be a very productive out of the gate on that 26 man roster... not just average production because average production isn't a short term gain that will justify the longer term loss of his service time. You would have to dynamite a hole in the 26 man roster by shedding a capable player in order to place him on the 26 man. 

Don't rush him... let him continue to progress into the player we want him to be. If he does... an injury will create the opportunity for him.  

 

 

[Otaknam]

The Twins have a good problem: how to make room for so many infielders. Correa is a fixture at short and Lewis likely at third for now. That leaves Julien, a now proven major league hitter, Brooks Lee as a call up soon, and Junior Severino later. It wouldn’t surprise me if Polanco and Kepler are gone, either by trade or not picking up their option, continuing the youth movement. That would free up around $18 million to add starting pitching, maybe even keeping Gray on a two year contract. But Gray might want to leave and play for a manager who trusts him to pitch six inning or more, unlike Baldelli. I like the trajectory of the team for next year.

[DJL44]

I'm hopeful that Matt Canterino is a rookie who will improve the roster in 2024.

[TopGunn#22]

The youth movement needs to continue.  I agree with not rushing Brooks Lee and not necessarily adding him to the 40 man when he isn't close to Rule 5 eligible.  However, if Lee shines in spring training, and he very well could, he will give the Twins good reason to add him to the 40 man and play him consistently. 

If I was the Twins GM I'd pick up the options on both Kepler and Polanco but I would certainly consider trading one or both (for me, more likely Polanco) to add pitching.  Trading them moves their salary to other teams, and you don't just let them walk for minimal compensation.  Julien won't embarrass himself or the Twins if he logs some innings at 2B.  He's not a stellar defender, but he's not nearly as inadequate as some seem to think.  And he could still improve.  Guys like Gaetti and Koskie weren't good right away either.

Martin, in my opinion is ready.  He's a 4th OF who we will need to count on as a semi-regular CF if Buxton can't play the field.  Taylor isn't ever going to come close to his numbers this year for the rest of his career.  Take the win of 2022 and move on with Castro and Martin splitting time in CF.  (unless a trade is made for a more permanent solution). 

Severino is a really intriguing prospect.  I also see him as a 1B but in a pinch he may be able to give you some innings at 3B/2B.  He will most likely start in St. Paul but I'd rather have him than Solano on the roster.  At 37 years old, Solano isn't going to duplicate his 2023. He's going to regress.  Once again, move the youth up.  They're ready, or at least REALLY CLOSE to being ready.  I'd like to see how Canterino, Festa and Raya look in spring training.  I'm not sure sure how many innings Canterino has in his arm, but with his stuff and command, I'd like to see it at the major league level ASAP rather than in the minor leagues.  A 2-month stint at St. Paul and if he's dominating, get him up and into our bullpen.

[terrydactyls]

I don't want to get into a lengthy debate over which player (Lee or Lewis) is better at which position (2B or 3B).  It doesn't really matter.  I'll let the Twins' decide that.  But if the premise of one of them being the 2024 2B, I think it's time to trade Polanco.  Martin, Julien, and Severino all can provide backup to whomever is the starter and Polanco (along with someone in the 2B pipeline) could become trade assets for either a starting pitcher or a solid, RH corner outfielder.  Either Martin or Lewis could backup Buxton (or be the regular CF).  Below is a 25-man roster for 2024 that I would like to see.  It is NOT an A) "unquestionably best" lineup, or B) an "I'll give up on Twins if they don't do this" lineup, or C) or any other commonly used declarative sentence attempting to transform an opinion into a fact.  It's just me daydreaming.

C  Jeffers

C  Camargo

1B Kirilloff

2B Julien

SS Correa

3B Lee

LF New brought in by trading Polanco

CF Lewis

RF Kepler

DH Buxton

Bench

Wallner

Castro

Severino

Larnach

SP1 Lopez

SP2 Paddock

SP3 Ryan

SP4 Ober

SP5 Gray/Maeda/someone via free agency or trade

RP Duran

RP Jax

RP Stewart

RP Varland

RP Alcala

RP Funderburk

RP Canterino

That's a payroll of about $90M plus whatever is spent for a new LF and SP5.  And it leaves about $60M for the new LF or SP5.  Should be able to buy or trade for decent players and have plenty left over for extensions for young guys.

[Blyleven2011]

No pitching  mentioned in the article  ,  every year it's the abundance of  infield prospects we are talking about   ,( trade this guy , play this prospect ) ...

Of the three players that came up  , Lewis and Julien  have the most upside to be long-term players , Wallner I'm not sold on him yet , He has improved defensively , his lack of contact abilities  lead to many strikeouts,  both swinging and looking , Julien also  gets called out to many times  looking  , I'd rather these players go down swinging  on close pitches ,  than looking ...

 

now the article  mentioning  Lee  , severino and Martin I don't see any of them ready to make the team out of spring training  , to many ifs offensively or defensively  of the three  ...

Keep Polanco  and Taylor  , wallner can plug right field for now with that arm ...

Get some pitching developed  , Raya  , Festa  , Lewis ,  cullpepper  and there is another one i can't remember from the draft of 2022  ...

Trading Spencer Steer  ( we needed pitching but got nothing but an injured arm ) , Steer  would have led the Twins in almost all offensive categories ... 

It hurts but Cincinnati gave him his chance and he  steered Cincinnati almost to a playoff position  ...

[Dave Borton]

Lee? Everyone touts him but a look at defensive stats show .954 at short and .947 at 3rd (3rd is a small set) for his minor league stats to date.

Julien compiled a .981 at AAA and .991 at 2nd with the club. And folks are unsettled with Julien's defense?

Time for a pause.

 

[weitz41]

Martin is the one that I think has a real chance to be the 4th OFer to start 2024. Lee does not need to be rushed and shouldn't be. Severino..man I'd like to have that RH power bat on the team but I'm afraid he'll have Gallo like k rate. If Lee or Severino dominate AAA in 2024 I'd bring them up when injuries allow and go from there. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

But Gray might want to leave and play for a manager who trusts him to pitch six inning or more, unlike Baldelli.

Do we have to listen to this old narrative in every thread?  Rocco gave Sonny more innings per start than any manager since 2017.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Do we have to listen to this old narrative in every thread?  Rocco gave Sonny more innings per start than any manager since 2017.

Once opinions are wedged into something... It takes dynamite to dislodge them. 

[Karbo]

52 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I don't want to get into a lengthy debate over which player (Lee or Lewis) is better at which position (2B or 3B).  It doesn't really matter.  I'll let the Twins' decide that.  But if the premise of one of them being the 2024 2B, I think it's time to trade Polanco.  Martin, Julien, and Severino all can provide backup to whomever is the starter and Polanco (along with someone in the 2B pipeline) could become trade assets for either a starting pitcher or a solid, RH corner outfielder.  Either Martin or Lewis could backup Buxton (or be the regular CF).  Below is a 25-man roster for 2024 that I would like to see.  It is NOT an A) "unquestionably best" lineup, or B) an "I'll give up on Twins if they don't do this" lineup, or C) or any other commonly used declarative sentence attempting to transform an opinion into a fact.  It's just me daydreaming.

C  Jeffers

C  Camargo

1B Kirilloff

2B Julien

SS Correa

3B Lee

LF New brought in by trading Polanco

CF Lewis

RF Kepler

DH Buxton

Bench

Wallner

Castro

Severino

Larnach

SP1 Lopez

SP2 Paddock

SP3 Ryan

SP4 Ober

SP5 Gray/Maeda/someone via free agency or trade

RP Duran

RP Jax

RP Stewart

RP Varland

RP Alcala

RP Funderburk

RP Canterino

That's a payroll of about $90M plus whatever is spent for a new LF and SP5.  And it leaves about $60M for the new LF or SP5.  Should be able to buy or trade for decent players and have plenty left over for extensions for young guys.

I'd keep Lee at AAA another season. Leave Polo at 2nd another year. Martin should move to CF, since Buxton is never healthy. See how Lee fares. Don't burn an extra year of control if they don't need too.

[Schmoeman5]

19 minutes ago, davidborton said:

Lee? Everyone touts him but a look at defensive stats show .954 at short and .947 at 3rd (3rd is a small set) for his minor league stats to day

Julien compiled a .981 at AAA and .991 at 2nd with the club. And folks are unsettled with Julien's defense?

Time for a pause.

 

Julien is atrocious at 2nd. That .991 fielding % is a joke. Very generous official scoring. There was 1 game where he had 3 errors and was not given 1. He's terrible at turning the double play. He has some range but his footwork is not good. Can he get better? I sure hope so. But the old let's look at his stats does not tell the whole story. If the Twins think he's the answer I don't believe he'd be working out at 1st. Where he's not much better. I forget how many games he played there. ( not many ) but it wasn't pretty. 

[ashbury]

Brooks Lee probably has the highest upside of the three, but as already mentioned there are not Rule-5/40-man issues for him so he probably should be considered separately.  If he absolutely kicks the door down, he'll be brought up.  Otherwise let him develop at AAA.

I don't know where Severino plays.  If Royce Lewis is considered good enough to be Plan B for everyday shortstop, were Correa to go down for an extended period, then there's room for Severino, given that Willi Castro has a minor league option remaining.  If not, and if for instance we keep Farmer or intend Castro for that backup SS role, then it becomes a problem to have multiple 2B/3B players because it's harder to think of scenarios where they get enough use.  Maybe Severino becomes a trade chip.  It's nice though that Severino switch hits and doesn't seem to have a lefty-righty split to worry about.  I like Julien and I think his defense has come along, but maybe he's the trade chip - except probably Polanco is the question mark, and I doubt he brings much in trade but might be the right one to move (sad to say).  Complicated!

I have only the tiniest perception of Austin Martin in CF, from watching a grand total of one Arizona Fall League game where he wasn't really put to the test on any fly balls other than a can o' corn or two, nor aggressive baserunners testing his arm there.  I know he is reputed to be fast, but he looked tentative and cautious out there, but like I said it wasn't much of a test, plus it was a long time ago now.  (Better cautious, than a misguided hero mentality like my bias about Jake Cave though.)  I'm anticipating he'd be adequate in CF, which isn't really a knock, but the bar is set high out there and we've been spoiled by Buxton and one year of MAT patrolling that area.  Prepare to be disappointed if he's installed out there, at least until he gains more experience and becomes stellar at tracking the ball.  I also note that they didn't really commit to him in CF at AAA, which maybe says something. If they see him as a 2Bman only, it just adds to the clog at that position, and a trade really needs to happen.

Of course being on the 40-man still allows for 3 years of minor league options.  But taking up one of those spaces implies some degree of commitment by the team that wasn't necessary before, and constitutes a limit on what the team may work with, for the major league roster, in the coming season.

It's a lot easier to plug in prospects with uncertain defensive homes if you are coming off a 90+ loss season, since there'll usually be plenty of job openings for them to try to impress at.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

Really believe that buying out Polanco and Max is a likely scenario given it would save about 18 million and we could use that money to work on one more starter and given we have ready-made replacements that are comparable other than experience. 

I would rate that highly unlikely. They both performed better than their salaries last year. Polanco is under team control at a very reasonable salary for two years, and Kepler also plays good defense. If nothing else, they both should be tradeable for something, rather than just letting them go somewhere else for nothing.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Once opinions are wedged into something... It takes dynamite to dislodge them. 

Right - the Twins starters were near the top of MLB in average innings pitched per start in 2023. It's not that hard to look this stuff up.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Julien is atrocious at 2nd.

He was at the beginning but he did improve as he was up here. Still below average but there are a number of below average 2B in MLB that have a great bat.

[tony&rodney]

The three mentioned all have some helium right now. I agree that Camargo is likely to see MLB time. There is quite a bit of debate on several players, which is good. I imagine that there is also quite a bit of discussion within the Twins organization as well concerning a number of players. There are few items already addressed, even if not certain.

Buxton has a contract and his operation portends enough health that it is possible he returns to CF. He will be on the team, we know that. Right?

Baldelli and Falvey both specifically have noted that Lewis is going to be a third baseman going forward. I will take their word on this. Of course, things can change but I highly doubt it.

Kirilloff's surgery removed a major cause of the pain which restricted his full movements when swinging a bat or diving for ground balls. The procedure was fairly minor in nature and he is expected to begin strengthening and flexibility exercises soon and start Spring Training in full go mode for the first time in six years.

Polanco and Kepler will have their options picked up. Polanco would be far and away the best middle infielder on the market. Kepler would be one of the leading outfielders on the market. Whether or not one or both of them are traded during the offseason, both are bargains.

When is the last time the Twins signed a free agent pitcher to a major contract? I would like that. We should not expect the Twins to go all in for a free agent starting pitcher. Again, I'm all for adding a star starting pitcher from free agency.

Yunior Severino should be added to the 40 person roster and he has a chance to get at bats next season if he continues to produce with his potent swing. He makes for nice PH, reserve infielder, and can play some first base. Severino is one to watch.

Austin Martin seems like he should need to prove himself further at AAA, but he has the skills a team is looking for in a utility player. If Martin has a strong Spring Training I can see him on the 26 person roster breaking into the regular season. Martin can play anywhere adequately, can run, is patient at the plate, and can hit the ball. He may be beginning to reach the promise of his being a #5 draft choice at last.

Finally, Brooks Lee .... Lee projects as a strong regular for a MLB team. He looks decent in the field and has a strong bat. He also may need further work at AAA, but I would not bet against him playing ten years as a starter in the major leagues. It is never a bad thing to have too many good players, but all of Polanco, Julien, and Lee are probably best served with regular at bats. Polanco seems underrated. He is a tough out and despite some injuries could easily play another 3-4 years of high quality baseball. Julien gets torched by some for his fielding. He doesn't always move so fluidly. Nobody can effectively dispute that Julien has improved quite a bit with the glove. Julien was a prime driver of the offense at the top of the order. Perhaps Lee can do all of what Julien brings to the game and more. I wouldn't bet on that because I believe that Lee already has more experience playing baseball and that Julien has more ceiling. Lee has a higher floor. It isn't a good idea to forget Polanco who is clearly better than both Julien or Lee but has been injured and is older. So the Twins have some decisions to make with these three. Which of these three is most valued by another team? Which (possibly with an addition or two) brings back the most in trade? Which player do the Twins value the most? All considerations when forming a roster.

[FlyingFinn]

There is an incentive to "rush" Lee to the Twins (compare the talk about Lee to SWR - Lee is the new guy who needs more time at AAA according to some and SWR is never going to be good because he's been in the minors seemingly forever - they are basically the same age). Win the Rookie of the Year and the team gets an extra #1 pick. Those are gold to teams like the Twins and many others. I can't see the Twins making sure Lee gets less than 130 AB's on the team so he has a great chance at ROY in 2025 (if so, we keep Polanco) as we always have injuries. What is better - one more year of service time (guaranteed) or ROY (not guaranteed). If Polanco is on the team next spring, the Twins plan to have Lee at AAA.

[EGFTShaw]

4 hours ago, Jkeady12 said:

Any thoughts on Michael Helman? He looks good when he is healthy. 

He might slide into the MAT role which may be the 5th OF depending on Buxtons health and AM

[EGFTShaw]

40 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

He was at the beginning but he did improve as he was up here. Still below average but there are a number of below average 2B in MLB that have a great bat.

I see Eduardo being league average defensively and plus offensively. 
 

im not trading Polanco just to trade Polanco. If we let Farmer go Polanco becomes Farmer but with a better bat.