I am fine being told I am an idiot but is Kenta Maeda worthy of a QO?

[Dman]

Looking at his body of work it doesn't feel like Maeada is worth 21M per year but as I snooped around looking at last years numbers for pitchers it looked like several pitchers with his numbers are worth at least 15M per year. In 2021 Zach Grienke got 13M per year in his age 39 season and the washed up Hill managed 8M last year.  Even a bounce back look at Thor cost 13M last year.  

While Kenta's overall numbers weren't ace level last year the Athletic noted that his ERA from June till the end of the year was 3.36.  He struggled early with his arm and velocity but once it all came back in June he looked like a top of the rotation arm.  The K rate was solid. He gave up some just over the fence HR's or his ERA might have been even better.

It is hard to crack the 20M barrier but it seems like a team desperate for pitching could go 2 years 32M to 37M with a buy out on the end offering a third year.  It seems close enough to QO money to offer it IMO. If he takes it then the Twins get a really good arm (slightly overpriced) for one more year to add depth and if someone still offers him a multi-year deal and he takes it then at least the Twins get comped with a 2nd or 1st round pick depending on the money involved.

I just can't see him getting anything less than 15M per year even at his age even with the question marks about his arm staying strong throughout a full season.  Am I way off base here?  Let me know your thoughts.

[chpettit19]

I'd be super surprised if they put a QO on Maeda. I don't think they'd be comfortable paying 20+ mil for him, and I think he'd accept it immediately. Other teams having to give up a draft pick would drive his price down if they put a QO on him, and I just don't see how he'd take the risk and reject the offer. I think they offer him a deal, but don't think there's much of a chance of him getting the QO.

[CRF]

I agree with you. Complete stiffs are going to get 10-15 Mil. Maeda is much better than that, and he still has gas left in the tank. I'd at least do a QO and see what happens. 

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd be super surprised if they put a QO on Maeda. I don't think they'd be comfortable paying 20+ mil for him, and I think he'd accept it immediately. Other teams having to give up a draft pick would drive his price down if they put a QO on him, and I just don't see how he'd take the risk and reject the offer. I think they offer him a deal, but don't think there's much of a chance of him getting the QO.

Yeah I here ya.  Eovaldi got 2\34 last year and his ERA has looked better than Maeda's going into his contract year.  Still I think Maeda could get a similar deal.  21 is only 4M more than 17 and then the Twins don't have to bring him back when the money crunch hits in 2025.  They paid Gray 12.5M last year plus Maeda's old Salary and the difference isn't that large.

Still I think you are right.  With the TV deal unsettled they probably don't want to take on 21M even if he did accept it, but good luck finding anyone close to Maeda for under 15M per year on the FA market.  I guess I was just surprised that I could talk myself into it making sense.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I here ya.  Eovaldi got 2\34 last year and his ERA has looked better than Maeda's going into his contract year.  Still I think Maeda could get a similar deal.  21 is only 4M more than 17 and then the Twins don't have to bring him back when the money crunch hits in 2025.  They paid Gray 12.5M last year plus Maeda's old Salary and the difference isn't that large.

Still I think you are right.  With the TV deal unsettled they probably don't want to take on 21M even if he did accept it, but good luck finding anyone close to Maeda for under 15M per year on the FA market.  I guess I was just surprised that I could talk myself into it making sense.

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised with Maeda getting something in the 2/30-35 range without a pick attached to him, but I don't think he'd take the risk coming off an injury shortened season where he got moved to the pen and barely used in the playoffs. He's also a different style pitcher than Eovaldi, and with his low velo his margin for error is much smaller so I think he'll have a harder time finding multiple years. I think he'd jump at the QO, and I don't think the Twins want to pay him that much for 1 year. 

I think Eovaldi is seen as a legit option to start playoff games while I don't think Maeda is. I think that's what would change the markets.

[Riverbrian]

Dman

You are not an idiot for the suggestion.

I wouldn't offer him a QO but he is a good pitcher with value and I will not call you an idiot for the thought. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I may be wrong, but I think for the Twins to get a draft pick he would need to sign a contract for 50M or more. I doubt he gets that so I'd have to say no. Offer him 12-15M and see what he says.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I may be wrong, but I think for the Twins to get a draft pick he would need to sign a contract for 50M or more. I doubt he gets that so I'd have to say no. Offer him 12-15M and see what he says.

FYI they'd get a pick if he signed with anyone else at any number, but to get a pick after the first round he needs to sign for 50M or more. If he doesn't get that they get a pick after comp round b (so after the 2nd round).

[DJL44]

If they want him back in next season's rotation (see Martin Perez) he's probably worth a QO. I think Paddack took Maeda's spot and they're going to want someone as good as Gray to replace Gray.

[ashbury]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI they'd get a pick if he signed with anyone else at any number, but to get a pick after the first round he needs to sign for 50M or more. If he doesn't get that they get a pick after comp round b (so after the 2nd round).

And IMO that lower draft pick changes the risk/reward ratio.  You're gambling the same $20+M on a pitcher, and the reward if he turns down the QO is lower, and he's probably a lesser pitcher than most who get the QO.  It's an easy decision when you want the player to accept your QO; it's a lot harder when you're hoping he turns it down and you get something of whatever value for free, but he might accept.  Overpay Maeda by several million, or get somewhere around the 100th draft pick? Unsure.  If you actually want him, offer him a little less and see what he says.  But all in all, a QO is at least in the realm of possibility.

By the way, to the OP of this thread: Your a idot.  There, I've been wanting to use that gem I found on Facebook for a long time now. 

[jmlease1]

It feels like an overpay, and it almost certainly is...but it wouldn't be catastrophic just because it's a 1-year deal, you know?

I don't think I'd go there, in part because I have no idea how well Maeda can hold up through a full season any longer and whether or not he'd actually be a superior performer to Louie Varland...but it's not crazy, exactly. I'd rather try and bring him back on a smaller deal than overpay him by $6-8M, because he feels like a guy who is going to get a 1 year $15M deal or like 2/$24 with year 2 being some kind of mutual option based on appearances or something...

[mnfireman]

A QO is an overpay, especially for a pitcher who will be 36 shortly after opening day next season. That being said, according to FanGraphs, he has been worth $12+ MM every season of his career, so maybe 2 yrs $25 MM?

[DocBauer]

Nope, you're not an idiot at all.

I have him high on my list for replacing Gray if A} Gray doesn't come back, B} They can't pull off another Gray/Lopez deal, or C} Can't pull off something like a 3yr $60M-ish + FA deal for someone like Eduardo Rodriguez. 

Honestly, I think he'd be more durable in 2024 than 2023 simply because the recovery is over, he's at full strength, and I think he's got at least one more good season left in him. He's not about velocity. He just needs enough of it to make everything else work, and it did once he came back from his IL stint.

But I don't think he's worth $20M. I do think he's worth around $15 or so a year, whether it be 1yr or a 2yr deal. 

And if you offer him the QO, I'd bet he jumps at it. I think that would pretty much preclude the Twins from any sort of Gray reunion, or a quality FA, and might cut off any trade options that could potentially bring in a younger, even better option.

Keep in contact. Let him know you are interested. But I don't see the QO making sense.

[Linus]

I get your point. Maeda pitched very well at times which was good considering coming off TJ. I also think he will age better than most because he doesn’t rely on velocity. That said 36 year olds coming off TJ are going to be looked at carefully.  I bet he gets 2 for $25 mil. 

[darin617]

3 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I may be wrong, but I think for the Twins to get a draft pick he would need to sign a contract for 50M or more. I doubt he gets that so I'd have to say no. Offer him 12-15M and see what he says.

No team would sign him to a deal over 50M even if he didn't get a QO. He is a very smart veteran to have on a staff but I can't see any team giving him more than 2 years if gets that.

[sun]

I think it's a brilliant idea for several reasons.  1. All Maeda ever wanted when he came to the Twins was his big payday. And he proved himself by having a great season before his surgery.  2. I watched him deliver 105 pitches in a game at the end of the season & he made it through his last inning. He's willing to pitch his arm off for the Twins & for his reputation..  3.  If he accepts a QO, then the Twins can offer him a 2nd year at a discount that will average out if he accepts. I tend to think that he'll be negotiable & that it would work out whether he accepts the 2nd year or not. The Twins FO knows how to get it done. The QO is only the vehicle that the Twins need to use to get it done without as much risk of him bolting to another team. The QO can only be used once on a player & I think that Maeda can win a lot of regular season games if he's getting veterans pay. 4. The fans love Maeda & I hope that the Twins FO will have enough courage to make the QO.  I don't want all of the drama of the Correa signing again because without a QO the Twins can get outbid. The important thing is to repeat winning the Central Division. The Twins can save money elsewhere if they really need to. Just pay the man.

[jorgenswest]

Maeda is probably valued at 14-15 million.

They could go try to sign a pitcher to 15 million like Lorenzan, Morton or Perez. That presents two challenges. One challenge is that they aren’t the only team looking at these pitchers. The other challenge is to get them to agree to one year for these older pitchers.

They could trade for someone projected similarly like Kikuchi. He has one year left in his contract. There would be a prospect or player cost that has some value. There is no certainty a trade partner can be found.

The benefit of overpaying by making a qualifying offer is the certainty of the signing that you can’t get in free agency and the retention of prospects. Even if Maeda chooses not to accept they get that certainty before heading into free agency. The downside is the extra burden on the budget.

I would let him go but I get the benefits of making the qualifying offer.

[Jocko87]

It’s not the worst idea.  The most important part is that they have the player and have certainly been having these conversations already.  They will have a pretty good idea what he will do before they do it.  

Considering his contract history he might be as ready as Gray to test free agency. He’s got some salary to make up and one chance to do it.  The Twins can still sign him after he rejects anyway. He’ll also have an idea of what the Twins would be willing to do for two years etc.  Maybe some sort of performance option on top of 2/25?

If he’s healthy he profiles like someone who would age well, it’s not like he can lose much velo anyway.  Even if he doesn’t get a postseason start he can competently chew a ton of regular season innings and that has value.  

[sun]

There's a public relations angle to insuring that Maeda stays in Minny & that's his loyal following in Japan. Not only does he sell Twins merchandise in Japan, but he's promoting the Twins in a country that exports ball players. It helps to send a good signal to other Japanese players that theTwins reward its Japanese players. To be honorable is important to them & Maeda did have a great year in the past.

I remember when Nishioka played for the Twins & after he broke his leg the Twins let him rot in AAA. He ended up terminating his own contract a year early even though the Twins still owed him a lot of money on it. He didn't want to stay where he wasn't appreciated. In Maeda's case, I would like to see the reverse happen & the Twins make an extra effort to keep Maeda. I know it's only Karma but still these things tend to equalize themselves out.

[Major League Ready]

The problem with this is paying Maeda $20M negates the chance they get anyone better because they are not spending $45M+ on two free agent SPs.  The target should be someone better than Maeda.

[sun]

45 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The problem with this is paying Maeda $20M negates the chance they get anyone better because they are not spending $45M+ on two free agent SPs.  The target should be someone better than Maeda.

The Twins have Paddack They need to keep (& QO) Maeda in case Gray doesn't return. Maeda could be what's needed to win the AL Central again.  It's better to have one in the hand than 2 in the bush. Signing someone better could be a pipe dream. The Twins will also have other cheaper options & the bottom line wil always be an obstacle to the Twins signing big contracts. And the Twins have also had such bad luck with new pitchers with the most recent being Mahle. The Twins will be okay if Buxton & Correa can start being hitters again. The Twins need more than pitching.

[terrydactyls]

If Gray does leave, I would like to see the Twins offer Maeda a $2/$25 deal and also offer Mahle a deal similar to the Michael Pineda deal (we'll give you a couple million to do rehab in 2024 and then give you $15M in 2025 with a buyout if your recovery is not complete).  The Twins' rotation would include Lopez, Paddock, Ryan, Varland, Maeda, and Ober in 2024.  And Mahle might be available in 2025.

[clone52]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

And IMO that lower draft pick changes the risk/reward ratio.  You're gambling the same $20+M on a pitcher, and the reward if he turns down the QO is lower, and he's probably a lesser pitcher than most who get the QO.  It's an easy decision when you want the player to accept your QO; it's a lot harder when you're hoping he turns it down and you get something of whatever value for free, but he might accept.  Overpay Maeda by several million, or get somewhere around the 100th draft pick? Unsure.  If you actually want him, offer him a little less and see what he says.  But all in all, a QO is at least in the realm of possibility.

By the way, to the OP of this thread: Your a idot.  There, I've been wanting to use that gem I found on Facebook for a long time now. 

I think it depends.  The twins wouldn't really be gambling $21m for a 2nd round pick.  Let's say the offer him a 1 year deal for $15m and he turns it down, a QO is only risking $6M.

[Brandon]

6 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Nope, you're not an idiot at all.

I have him high on my list for replacing Gray if A} Gray doesn't come back, B} They can't pull off another Gray/Lopez deal, or C} Can't pull off something like a 3yr $60M-ish + FA deal for someone like Eduardo Rodriguez. 

Honestly, I think he'd be more durable in 2024 than 2023 simply because the recovery is over, he's at full strength, and I think he's got at least one more good season left in him. He's not about velocity. He just needs enough of it to make everything else work, and it did once he came back from his IL stint.

But I don't think he's worth $20M. I do think he's worth around $15 or so a year, whether it be 1yr or a 2yr deal. 

And if you offer him the QO, I'd bet he jumps at it. I think that would pretty much preclude the Twins from any sort of Gray reunion, or a quality FA, and might cut off any trade options that could potentially bring in a younger, even better option.

Keep in contact. Let him know you are interested. But I don't see the QO making sense.

This!

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The problem with this is paying Maeda $20M negates the chance they get anyone better because they are not spending $45M+ on two free agent SPs.  The target should be someone better than Maeda.

But, from a flexibility perspective, which this FO and I love, the QO would give them a nice buffer time frame with which to sort that out.  If they just sign Kenta, that's money straight out of the free agent budget.  Failing the bigger free agents, hes a good fallback.

This is assuming that they wont offer it without being relatively certain he will reject.  I think he wants to see free agency as bad as Gray.

[Fat Calvin]

6 hours ago, sun said:

There's a public relations angle to insuring that Maeda stays in Minny & that's his loyal following in Japan. Not only does he sell Twins merchandise in Japan, but he's promoting the Twins in a country that exports ball players. It helps to send a good signal to other Japanese players that theTwins reward its Japanese players. To be honorable is important to them & Maeda did have a great year in the past.

I remember when Nishioka played for the Twins & after he broke his leg the Twins let him rot in AAA. He ended up terminating his own contract a year early even though the Twins still owed him a lot of money on it. He didn't want to stay where he wasn't appreciated. In Maeda's case, I would like to see the reverse happen & the Twins make an extra effort to keep Maeda. I know it's only Karma but still these things tend to equalize themselves out.

I live in Japan, and from what I can tell, Maeda doesn't have much of a following.  It's all about Otani.  He dominates everything in this country.  All other Japanese major leaguers get overshadowed by the great Otani.  And Maeda  doesn't even come up at all in conversation.  And I talk a lot of baseball with a lot of Japanese people.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, sun said:

The Twins have Paddack They need to keep (& QO) Maeda in case Gray doesn't return. Maeda could be what's needed to win the AL Central again.  It's better to have one in the hand than 2 in the bush. Signing someone better could be a pipe dream. The Twins will also have other cheaper options & the bottom line wil always be an obstacle to the Twins signing big contracts. And the Twins have also had such bad luck with new pitchers with the most recent being Mahle. The Twins will be okay if Buxton & Correa can start being hitters again. The Twins need more than pitching.

They have to QO Maeda by 5 days after the World Series. He will absolutely sign that, and so your pitching shopping list is done, 5 days after the WS in a massive over-pay. A massive over-pay to get Maeda on a 1 year isn’t all bad in isolation.

I don’t see Maeda as better than Ryan, Paddack, Ober, so signing him would be only to push Varland to the bullpen/AAA. Here’s the rub, I don’t want a 36 year old on a multi year deal, but they’re also losing out on 5th starter development innings for Varland who’s 25 years old and at a career intersection… unless the FO has already decided that Varland is a reliever and the decision has been made already. If he’s a reliever, then a 3rd to 5th starter makes sense because the next crop isn’t pushing the MLB roster quite yet.

I don’t think the FO has decided Varland is a reliever, so I think they should aim higher or roll with what they got,

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

But, from a flexibility perspective, which this FO and I love, the QO would give them a nice buffer time frame with which to sort that out.  If they just sign Kenta, that's money straight out of the free agent budget.  Failing the bigger free agents, hes a good fallback.

This is assuming that they wont offer it without being relatively certain he will reject.  I think he wants to see free agency as bad as Gray.

The QO, being he’s certain to accept it, has to be tendered by 5 days after the WS, is not a fall back, it’s plan A. Also, 20M might be the total free agent budget this offseason

christmas shopping done by 11/9 and you can only afford one present.

[Trov]

I would not say it is crazy, except for you would be paying him more than Lopez next year, and what you are paying Lopez the remaining 3 years of his deal, and Maeda is no where near worth Lopez.  However, if you want him back the QO should get it done as I would expect he would accept it. If you are concerned he would sign somewhere else and willing a little overpay do it.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

They have to QO Maeda by 5 days after the World Series. He will absolutely sign that, and so your pitching shopping list is done, 5 days after the WS in a massive over-pay. A massive over-pay to get Maeda on a 1 year isn’t all bad in isolation.

I don’t see Maeda as better than Ryan, Paddack, Ober, so signing him would be only to push Varland to the bullpen/AAA. Here’s the rub, I don’t want a 36 year old on a multi year deal, but they’re also losing out on 5th starter development innings for Varland who’s 25 years old and at a career intersection… unless the FO has already decided that Varland is a reliever and the decision has been made already. If he’s a reliever, then a 3rd to 5th starter makes sense because the next crop isn’t pushing the MLB roster quite yet.

I don’t think the FO has decided Varland is a reliever, so I think they should aim higher or roll with what they got,

There is a good chance the FO replaces Maeda internally with Varland or a cheaper possibly bounce back free agent next year instead of investing in Maeda.  The TV contract being up in the air likely leaves my Maeda idea in the dust bin. The only reason I bring up the QO for Maeda is Nick Nelson's article which identifies 2025 as a pinch point in the budget.  While they would have to overpay for Maeda it would only be a one year deal and I only see Maeda accepting a one year deal for extra money as he can certainly get a two year deal and if any kind of bidding war three years on the Free agent market.  The bar based on what similar pitchers got was around 15M per year so unless I am missing something he is going to make good money in his next contract.

The FO might not feel they need Maeda "that" bad I don't know, but given what I laid out above if they wanted to just keep him for one more year the QO could likely accomplish that at a slightly over priced rate.  If he doesn't accept then at least there is an extra pick and more money in the pool for the draft.