Players the Twins Should Sell High On

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Introduction

Last offseason, the Twins traded Luis Arraez, coming off of a batting title, for a controllable starting pitcher and two prospects who are now ranked #22 and #26 in the Twins' farm by MLB.com (Mercedes is ranked 14th in the TD rankings, for what it's worth). By trading a player at the peak of his value with three years of control left, they were able to secure a true ace in Pablo Lopez. While the Twins don't have an expendable piece as good as Arraez this offseason, they should be in the market for another controllable starter. Let's identify a couple of major-league pieces that the Twins could/should move if they plan to acquire another controllable arm.

Method

Let's establish some ground rules for players that qualify. Firstly, they need to be in pre-arb/arbitration years of their contract. Nobody is going to trade young pitching for a year of 31-year-old Max Kepler. Secondly, their most recent season has to have signs of regression, or there are serious concerns about that player's long-term future of the franchise. Julien had a great 2023; his defense is improving, and his peripherals back up his production- it makes no sense to trade him. Lastly, their perceived value has to be substantially higher than their actual value. I am using BTV (baseball trade values) to gather perceived values, as their model accepts over 94% of all MLB trades and would likely be higher if the Oakland Athletics did not have the budget of a rural school district. Alex Kirilloff had a good 2023 with serious concerns about his health. However, he's only valued at $2.7M, so I don't think it's worth it to cash him in for a 50-grade prospect.

Players To Sell:

Willi Castro ($15.9M)

The front office bringing in Castro before the start of the year was extremely shrewd and proved to be one of the more important depth signings the Twins made last offseason. He was one of the big benefactors of the new rules impacting the running game, as he went from nine steals in '21 and '22 to a whopping 33 steals this past season. He registered a 106 OPS+ and a 109 wRC+, which combined with his above average defense (everywhere but CF) to make him one of the league's best utilitymen. 

Castro's career-saving season has obviously increased his value, but is the league's perception of Castro inflated? He only has two more years of team control and peripherals show that some of his stats are inflated. Castro is a better hitter than he was in Detroit- he walks more, hits the ball in the air more, and hits the ball harder. However, this version of Willi Castro is still a below-average hitter, as his xwOBA of .306 is substantially lower than his .327 wOBA and not very good. 

Replacements: Some fans may be reluctant to part ways with Castro, since he is the only healthy returning CF for 2024. Nick Gordon seems like a good candidate to fill Castro's role, and MAT should not be very expensive (one or two years of $5-8M AAV) to bring back. It's unlikely, but if the Twins make a big ticket signing/trade for a bat, they're likely going to target a CF, as they have long-term players occupying most other spots.

Teams Interested: Pretty much anyone could use Castro. It's hard to find a team that has LF/RF/3B/2B all occupied and a decent utility man. The teams with the most interest would probably be the Angels, Rockies, Mariners, and Dodgers- teams with big outfields and question marks in LF/2B.

Trevor Larnach ($7.8M)

He's not a prototypical "sell high" guy, but he does fit the established criteria, and his value is likely at its peak. Larnach's BTV value is higher than Raya, Varland, Martin, SWR, Schobel, and many other players in the Twins system who figure to have better futures than Larnach. This is also probably the last offseason that he's tradeable, as he'll turn 27 in February and only has one option left. He's incredibly slow, slower than 36-year-old David Peralta, and his long-term future is likely at 1B, a position where a) his bat will be average, at best, and b) the Twins have Julien/Kirilloff, who figure to play there for the next half-decade.

His batting peripherals look pretty good, but nothing off the charts that would compel the Twins to keep him around. His draft pedigree probably inflates his value, meaning the Twins should ship him before he's out of options and labeled a "bust."

Replacements: Larnach was not on the Twins' roster for most of the second half, and it's clear that the FO prefers Wallner and even Stevenson over him. Larnach provided close-to-average (96 wRC+) offensive play, but finding corner outfielders who can provide this kind of production is not that hard. 

Teams Interested: Plenty of teams have a history of acquiring/developing powerful corner outfielders. The Phillies, Red Sox, and Yankees all have short corner outfields and are lefty-friendly; I think these teams are most likely to make a move.

Ryan Jeffers ($32.7M)

Ryan Jeffers is one of my favorite Twins for many reasons, he had a fantastic 2023 campaign and hit two of the most important regular season HRs this year. On the surface, he seems like the kind of guy you'd keep around for a long time, but given the way that Rocco and the Twins have used catchers and given the fact that Jeffers is unlikely to repeat this level of production, Jeffers seems like a perfect candidate to be dangled as trade bait this offseason.

Jeffers' BTV value is considerably higher than Duran, Ober, and E-Rod, and he is within spitting distance of Julien (34.5M). If the Twins (rightly) aren't going to play a catcher more than 90 games in a year, I fail to see why Jeffers is more valuable than a #3 starter with four years of team control. His .369 wOBA is much higher than his .334 xwOBA; we can expect to see regression from an elite 138 wRC+ to maybe the 110-125 range. Additionally, Jeffers is an atrocious fielder, statcast gave him a -8 fielding run value (7th percentile), and his framing was significantly worse in '23 than years prior, and I don't want to think about his blocking or his ability to throw out runners. If the Twins are committed to analytics, they should be able to see the disparity between his perceived value and his actual value.

Replacements: Austin Hedges is the best defensive catcher in baseball, and he should be fairly cheap (1yr/3-4M) as a free agent. Old friend Mitch Garver is on the market if they desire a 1 for 1 replacement (Garver's peripherals were fantastic in '23); otherwise, Tom Murphy is another available bat-first catcher. Victor Caratini, Luke Maile, and Curt Casali round out the catching free-agent market.

Teams Interested: Contenders who need a catcher. The Reds, Yankees, Cubs, and Marlins could use an upgrade, and all of them have had good success with bat-first catchers.

Who Should Be Targetted?

The Angels, Rockies, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Reds, Cubs, and Marlins could be in the market for one of these guys. Here are reasonably priced, controllable starters on each of those teams:

Griffin Canning ($20.8M) and Patrick Sandoval ($33.8M)

Ryan Feltner ($12.5M) and German Marquez ($4.5M)

Bryce Miller ($26.7M) and Bryan Woo ($25.1M)

Dustin May ($14.4M), Ryan Pepiot ($10.5M), and Emmet Sheehan ($20.8M)

Ranger Suarez ($30.1M)

Kutter Crawford ($29M) and Tanner Houck ($21.9M)

Nestor Cortes ($10.2M) Clarke Schmidt ($18.4M)

Graham Ashcraft ($29.5M) and Nick Lodolo ($16.5M) 

Javier Assad ($7M)

Edward Cabrera ($9.6) and Trevor Rodgers ($19.9) 

 

Here are a couple of ideas that I like:

Willi Castro + Twins' Top 15-5 prospect for Bryan Woo

Trevor Larnach + Twins' Top 25-15 prospect for Nestor Cortes

Ryan Jeffers for Graham Ashcraft + Reds' Top 20-10 prospect

 

Conclusion

Parting ways with any of these guys is going to hurt. However, for a small-market team like the Twins, it is very hard to compete with teams paying the luxury tax without making some risky trades. The 2015 Royals, the last small market team to win a WS championship, likely would not have done so without making risky trades for Johnny Cueto, Wade Davis, and Ben Zobrist. They acquired their star player, Lorenzo Cain, by trading away future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke. Giving up Sean Manaea, Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Brandon Finnegan hurt, but it gave them the pitching and offensive firepower to win a championship. The Twins need to fill a spot in the rotation, and they should strongly consider selling high on a couple of their major leaguers to acquire a #2 or #3 starter with control. 

[tony&rodney]

Like the idea of getting a good starting pitcher via trade. You also make a fair argument about selling high. Others have already mentioned looking to trade guys like Wallner or Julien because they believe their value is too high right now. Not me. There is going to be disagreements (naturally) with the players you featured, which is a good part of any discussion. There will also be some contention with a couple of other things. The post is a great thought though and may spur some thoughts.

First, I get that BTV is fun in a way. I have looked at it too. We went over a number of examples last year where it was shown how preposterous some trades can be using the values set by that site. So I will continue to look at BTV once in a while for fun but I'm not taking much value from it. 

Secondly, it is important to attempt to understand more or less what another team wants in players that would improve their team. This is complicated to an extent. Miami wants a catcher and may part with a pretty good package for Jeffers. Do the Twins do that? Cincinnati needs pitching and maybe an outfielder, so they are unlikely to trade a pitcher. Seattle is a real potential trade partner for the Twins but they want a starting player with years of control. I'm not sure Castro (a utility player) works for them. Larnach may be a player that fits as the extra guy in a trade but maybe there is a team who values Trevor. 

I love the process proposed in the post and feel that there will be plenty of options for difficult decisions in the offseason. Sometimes trades work beautifully, where both teams get what they want and make the playoffs as a result. Other times a player gets sent away in a move to strengthen the pitching staff where injuries occur and the player who was buried on the Twins winds up with more than 60 extra base hits on his new team. I am still in favor of pursuing Edward Cabrera and/or Max Meyer from Miami. Good post, I hope the Twins find a good trade again. 

[FlyingFinn]

The Twins have depth in their organization at 2B/SS/3B and not catcher. Therefore, I'm not trading Jeffers.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Like the idea of getting a good starting pitcher via trade. You also make a fair argument about selling high. Others have already mentioned looking to trade guys like Wallner or Julien because they believe their value is too high right now. Not me. There is going to be disagreements (naturally) with the players you featured, which is a good part of any discussion. There will also be some contention with a couple of other things. The post is a great thought though and may spur some thoughts.

First, I get that BTV is fun in a way. I have looked at it too. We went over a number of examples last year where it was shown how preposterous some trades can be using the values set by that site. So I will continue to look at BTV once in a while for fun but I'm not taking much value from it. 

Secondly, it is important to attempt to understand more or less what another team wants in players that would improve their team. This is complicated to an extent. Miami wants a catcher and may part with a pretty good package for Jeffers. Do the Twins do that? Cincinnati needs pitching and maybe an outfielder, so they are unlikely to trade a pitcher. Seattle is a real potential trade partner for the Twins but they want a starting player with years of control. I'm not sure Castro (a utility player) works for them. Larnach may be a player that fits as the extra guy in a trade but maybe there is a team who values Trevor. 

I love the process proposed in the post and feel that there will be plenty of options for difficult decisions in the offseason. Sometimes trades work beautifully, where both teams get what they want and make the playoffs as a result. Other times a player gets sent away in a move to strengthen the pitching staff where injuries occur and the player who was buried on the Twins winds up with more than 60 extra base hits on his new team. I am still in favor of pursuing Edward Cabrera and/or Max Meyer from Miami. Good post, I hope the Twins find a good trade again. 

The only real issue that I see with BTV is there is no value adjustment for the side receiving more players. For example, a trade of six players worth a total of $30M should not be able to acquire a single $30M player, because those are six roster spots taken up, and I'd much rather have an Eddy Julien than six versions of Matt Canterino. I think it is a great tool to compare player vs player, and the model is ideal for doing 1 for 1 or 2 for 1 trades.

 

I think Castro makes a ton of sense for the Mariners, because 2B was a huge issue for them. Even if he regresses to the mean, his bat still plays well at 2B, and he'll be one of the best defenders at that spot; I think the Mariners could be very interested in what he brings to their defense/lineup.

[Fatbat]

Jeffers is undervalued. No way he gets traded. 

[Nine of twelve]

I think this thread belongs in the Transactions Rumors and Proposals forum. I know it will take some time for folks to get used to it, but I was hoping that discussions like this would be kept out of this forum.

[Trov]

I am always for trading guys at peak value.  I see Jeffers staying, unless they are blown away by a deal. I would not shop him, but I would not ignore phone calls.  In terms of Larnach or Castro, I do not see either being that high in value.  Yes, Castro coming off great season overall, but not that he is so valuable a team will overpay for him.  I mean any team could have had him last year and passed.  If he repeats next season then I think he value skyrockets. Larnach may be at his peak, but that is still low.  He is bat first corner OF guy that has shown little ability to hit offspeed or against lefties.  He is a platoon guy that is streaky at best.  Not many teams will be looking for someone like him. 

[mnfireman]

Jeffers cannot be traded before a suitable replacement is in place, I don't want Vazquez behind the plate for 125+ games if 2023 is his norm.

While Castro might fetch a better return, I would be more open to trading Gordon, Larnach & Miranda. 1 guy plays all positions covered by these 3 (except 1B) and 2 of them could be highly sought after by the right team(s).

Free Trevor Larnach. He deserves a chance, but this FO does not seem willing to give it to him. Package him with Miranda and try to fill some needs.

[JD-TWINS]

I’d like to see Miranda gone but his value is at an all time low after ‘23. He has potential but playing hurt really messed up his numbers and perception. We’re good at 3B & if Kirilloff is healthy, we’re good at 1B. IMO, Miranda doesn’t fit.

Larnach should get another look in Spring Training but he’ll be challenged to make Big Club. Trading him with a cluster of other guys should be on the table.

I live in Cincinnati & understand the allure of the two young pitching prospects they have - the issue is the Twins can’t trade Jeffers w/o somebody coming up & ready from the organization. The other issue is the Reds carried 3 catchers this year and one was nearly rookie of the year 3 seasons ago - he’s DH often on off days…….Stephenson is solid and a core piece of this Reds Club.

The ultimate “trade high” guy (with risk!) would be Eddie Julien. Hitter - high OBP - with Pop. The bad news is we have a #1 pick coming sometime next year to play his position - Brooks Lee. In the meantime (if he were to be traded) our options are Farmer - Polanco - Castro - Gordon. I don’t know you could get proper value back for Julien - don’t like trading good offense - too hard to hit a baseball.

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The ultimate “trade high” guy (with risk!) would be Eddie Julien. Hitter - high OBP - with Pop. The bad news is we have a #1 pick coming sometime next year to play his position - Brooks Lee. In the meantime (if he were to be traded) our options are Farmer - Polanco - Castro - Gordon. I don’t know you could get proper value back for Julien - don’t like trading good offense - too hard to hit a baseball.

These are difficult decisions. Who knew that Spencer Steer would turn out to be so tough at the plate? He would have been the Twins MVP and ROY. I never thought trading Steer was a bad idea because of the many players who looked like they would be better than him at the MLB level. I'm always curious to know how other teams value the Twins players. Julien might be someone who begins to hit .280-.300 with 60 XBH and 100 BB each year. A question for me is how to evaluate Brooks Lee as compared to Royce Lewis or Ed. Julien. Is Lee someone that draws interest more than Julien? We know how hard it is to find really good hitters but it is almost always the case that pitching is what drives wins. So difficult calls need to be made in transactions. My belief is that a productive Logan Gilbert or George Kirby or Bryce Miller are needed more than one of the solid young Twin bats. Then again, perhaps it is time to trust that Louie Varland is ready for a full season in the starting rotation. I guess that Lewis and Jenkins should be put aside in conversations but all others should be on the table. The goal is always the same - improve the roster. Sorry for rambling.

[Riverbrian]

This was a well researched post.

Anybody on the team is tradable. The Twins have a lot of possibilities in the trade market.

However... in the context of sell high. 

The first guy on my list would be Jeffers. Not that I don't want him on the Twins... I think he was fantastic for us last year and I think he will be fantastic next year. However, in the context of sell high. Catchers are always an over pay and catchers require rest so they play less. 

For example... According to baseballtradevalues. 

Ryan Jeffers to the Marlins could bring back a couple of Minnesota Born players in Max Meyer and AJ Puk. Not sure that the Marlins would do that but the trade would be fair value. I'd make that deal on the Twins behalf. 

Jeffers to the Rays could bring back Siri and Springs? Fair value according to BTV. Springs is coming off TJ but is suppose to be back mid 2024. He was a fantastic SP prior to the injury. Siri a great defensive CF with power and speed. I don't make this trade because Siri strikes out way too much making him the wrong type of player for us to target but he does check the defense, power and speed boxes.   

You could trade Jeffers straight up to the Red Sox for Jarren Duran according to BTV. Duran can play CF with tons of speed and 15 home run potential that could increase to 20 plus. I'd make this trade.  

Yes I know... We would need a catcher to replace Jeffers and that hole left behind is a consideration but what you get back in return would make the overall team better. 

With all that said. I will be more than happy to see Jeffers wearing #27 for my ball club next year.

Just saying... if you did. Jeffers could be justified under the sell high consideration. 

 

 

[Squirrel]

3 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I would be more open to trading Gordon, Larnach & Miranda.

In a thread about trading high, these three would not be in that category

[Dman]

I guess I am not convinced the Twins will come up with another Pablo Lopez type deal this offseason.  With Paddocks return and if they can resign Maeda I think the Rotation moves are likely smaller this year.  I don't know if the TV contract stuff is going to resolve itself or not yet but with that uncertainty I have to believe they look long and hard at Trading Polanco and possibly even Kepler if the returns are half way decent.  I would look to build a deal around one of them for pitching if possible.

I can't see them trading Jeffers for pitching at this time.  Catcher is such an important position and getting offense from that position such a bonus to the lineup it would take a big deal to get that done IMO.  An all around skilled catcher is as rare as a high end pitcher.  I would stick with Jeffers for now.

I don't see Castro being enough to be the main piece in a deal.  It would be rare for a utility player to fetch much on the market.  I guess Zobrist was a player able to bring back good returns but I don't think Castro is at that level just yet.  If a team was willing to overpay for Willie I would take that deal in a heartbeat, but I don't see it happening.  I think he has more value to the Twins than anything he could bring back in a trade.

Larnach is a wild card for me.  I think he is better than the numbers indicate right now.  I think he is a solid defender in left and that his power will play eventually.  I wouldn't sell low on Larnach but again if a team came with a solid offer for what I think he could\should be then I would take it.  He isn't a great fit for the current roster and if he brought back more pitching that would be helpful.

Hard to day what will develop on the trade market but I have to believe the Twins will make some trades this offseason and hopefully they can land another good arm or two in those deals.

[MTV]

Willi Castro is a valuable utility man, even if his offense doesn’t shine next year he’s a perfect Segway to Austin Martin and his ability to play quality defense at several positions and be a pinch runner are worth  whatever the Twins decide to pay him next year. Nick Gordon has a little more offensive upside, but his defense is not good and he’s fairly limited to 2B/LF/CF while being an almost strictly righty platoon hitter, something this lineup has enough of.
 

I see the FO trading Larnach, it seems like a good time to move on from both sides.

 

there’s a world where the team trades Jeffers, but I don’t see it happening. He’s a good platoon/offensive option over Vázquez and his production is going to be hard to replace with a different bat for a pitching piece in return.

[clone52]

16 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Introduction

Last offseason, the Twins traded Luis Arraez, coming off of a batting title, for a controllable starting pitcher and two prospects who are now ranked #22 and #26 in the Twins' farm by MLB.com (Mercedes is ranked 14th in the TD rankings, for what it's worth). By trading a player at the peak of his value with three years of control left, they were able to secure a true ace in Pablo Lopez. While the Twins don't have an expendable piece as good as Arraez this offseason, they should be in the market for another controllable starter. Let's identify a couple of major-league pieces that the Twins could/should move if they plan to acquire another controllable arm.

Method

Let's establish some ground rules for players that qualify. Firstly, they need to be in pre-arb/arbitration years of their contract. Nobody is going to trade young pitching for a year of 31-year-old Max Kepler. Secondly, their most recent season has to have signs of regression, or there are serious concerns about that player's long-term future of the franchise. Julien had a great 2023; his defense is improving, and his peripherals back up his production- it makes no sense to trade him. Lastly, their perceived value has to be substantially higher than their actual value. I am using BTV (baseball trade values) to gather perceived values, as their model accepts over 94% of all MLB trades and would likely be higher if the Oakland Athletics did not have the budget of a rural school district. Alex Kirilloff had a good 2023 with serious concerns about his health. However, he's only valued at $2.7M, so I don't think it's worth it to cash him in for a 50-grade prospect.

Players To Sell:

Willi Castro ($15.9M)

The front office bringing in Castro before the start of the year was extremely shrewd and proved to be one of the more important depth signings the Twins made last offseason. He was one of the big benefactors of the new rules impacting the running game, as he went from nine steals in '21 and '22 to a whopping 33 steals this past season. He registered a 106 OPS+ and a 109 wRC+, which combined with his above average defense (everywhere but CF) to make him one of the league's best utilitymen. 

Castro's career-saving season has obviously increased his value, but is the league's perception of Castro inflated? He only has two more years of team control and peripherals show that some of his stats are inflated. Castro is a better hitter than he was in Detroit- he walks more, hits the ball in the air more, and hits the ball harder. However, this version of Willi Castro is still a below-average hitter, as his xwOBA of .306 is substantially lower than his .327 wOBA and not very good. 

Replacements: Some fans may be reluctant to part ways with Castro, since he is the only healthy returning CF for 2024. Nick Gordon seems like a good candidate to fill Castro's role, and MAT should not be very expensive (one or two years of $5-8M AAV) to bring back. It's unlikely, but if the Twins make a big ticket signing/trade for a bat, they're likely going to target a CF, as they have long-term players occupying most other spots.

Teams Interested: Pretty much anyone could use Castro. It's hard to find a team that has LF/RF/3B/2B all occupied and a decent utility man. The teams with the most interest would probably be the Angels, Rockies, Mariners, and Dodgers- teams with big outfields and question marks in LF/2B.

Trevor Larnach ($7.8M)

He's not a prototypical "sell high" guy, but he does fit the established criteria, and his value is likely at its peak. Larnach's BTV value is higher than Raya, Varland, Martin, SWR, Schobel, and many other players in the Twins system who figure to have better futures than Larnach. This is also probably the last offseason that he's tradeable, as he'll turn 27 in February and only has one option left. He's incredibly slow, slower than 36-year-old David Peralta, and his long-term future is likely at 1B, a position where a) his bat will be average, at best, and b) the Twins have Julien/Kirilloff, who figure to play there for the next half-decade.

His batting peripherals look pretty good, but nothing off the charts that would compel the Twins to keep him around. His draft pedigree probably inflates his value, meaning the Twins should ship him before he's out of options and labeled a "bust."

Replacements: Larnach was not on the Twins' roster for most of the second half, and it's clear that the FO prefers Wallner and even Stevenson over him. Larnach provided close-to-average (96 wRC+) offensive play, but finding corner outfielders who can provide this kind of production is not that hard. 

Teams Interested: Plenty of teams have a history of acquiring/developing powerful corner outfielders. The Phillies, Red Sox, and Yankees all have short corner outfields and are lefty-friendly; I think these teams are most likely to make a move.

Ryan Jeffers ($32.7M)

Ryan Jeffers is one of my favorite Twins for many reasons, he had a fantastic 2023 campaign and hit two of the most important regular season HRs this year. On the surface, he seems like the kind of guy you'd keep around for a long time, but given the way that Rocco and the Twins have used catchers and given the fact that Jeffers is unlikely to repeat this level of production, Jeffers seems like a perfect candidate to be dangled as trade bait this offseason.

Jeffers' BTV value is considerably higher than Duran, Ober, and E-Rod, and he is within spitting distance of Julien (34.5M). If the Twins (rightly) aren't going to play a catcher more than 90 games in a year, I fail to see why Jeffers is more valuable than a #3 starter with four years of team control. His .369 wOBA is much higher than his .334 xwOBA; we can expect to see regression from an elite 138 wRC+ to maybe the 110-125 range. Additionally, Jeffers is an atrocious fielder, statcast gave him a -8 fielding run value (7th percentile), and his framing was significantly worse in '23 than years prior, and I don't want to think about his blocking or his ability to throw out runners. If the Twins are committed to analytics, they should be able to see the disparity between his perceived value and his actual value.

Replacements: Austin Hedges is the best defensive catcher in baseball, and he should be fairly cheap (1yr/3-4M) as a free agent. Old friend Mitch Garver is on the market if they desire a 1 for 1 replacement (Garver's peripherals were fantastic in '23); otherwise, Tom Murphy is another available bat-first catcher. Victor Caratini, Luke Maile, and Curt Casali round out the catching free-agent market.

Teams Interested: Contenders who need a catcher. The Reds, Yankees, Cubs, and Marlins could use an upgrade, and all of them have had good success with bat-first catchers.

Who Should Be Targetted?

The Angels, Rockies, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Reds, Cubs, and Marlins could be in the market for one of these guys. Here are reasonably priced, controllable starters on each of those teams:

Griffin Canning ($20.8M) and Patrick Sandoval ($33.8M)

Ryan Feltner ($12.5M) and German Marquez ($4.5M)

Bryce Miller ($26.7M) and Bryan Woo ($25.1M)

Dustin May ($14.4M), Ryan Pepiot ($10.5M), and Emmet Sheehan ($20.8M)

Ranger Suarez ($30.1M)

Kutter Crawford ($29M) and Tanner Houck ($21.9M)

Nestor Cortes ($10.2M) Clarke Schmidt ($18.4M)

Graham Ashcraft ($29.5M) and Nick Lodolo ($16.5M) 

Javier Assad ($7M)

Edward Cabrera ($9.6) and Trevor Rodgers ($19.9) 

 

Here are a couple of ideas that I like:

Willi Castro + Twins' Top 15-5 prospect for Bryan Woo

Trevor Larnach + Twins' Top 25-15 prospect for Nestor Cortes

Ryan Jeffers for Graham Ashcraft + Reds' Top 20-10 prospect

 

Conclusion

Parting ways with any of these guys is going to hurt. However, for a small-market team like the Twins, it is very hard to compete with teams paying the luxury tax without making some risky trades. The 2015 Royals, the last small market team to win a WS championship, likely would not have done so without making risky trades for Johnny Cueto, Wade Davis, and Ben Zobrist. They acquired their star player, Lorenzo Cain, by trading away future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke. Giving up Sean Manaea, Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Brandon Finnegan hurt, but it gave them the pitching and offensive firepower to win a championship. The Twins need to fill a spot in the rotation, and they should strongly consider selling high on a couple of their major leaguers to acquire a #2 or #3 starter with control. 

Love your research, this is fun.

I'd definitely trade Larnach.

I'd listen to offers on Jeffers, but would only trade him for someone like Pablo Lopez.  Someone you are certain would become a #1 type pitcher.  I'd maybe trade him for a Top 50 type pitching talent.

Castro doesn't have the value that you got from the website, I don't think.  He's not going be a centerpiece in bringing in good talent now.  He's also not going bring in a sure thing prospect talent haul either. Eduardo Escobar had a higher track record of production that Castro and he didn't bring in any sure fire prospects.  Duran worked out well, be he was no sure thing.  I don't think Castro brings in as much as Escobar, so I think Castro has more value to the team (defense, speed, flexibility, cost) than he would in a trade.

However, if the front office things Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and maybe even Yunior Severino are all ready to contribute at the major league level, maybe there is not room for Castro.  Thats a pretty big if right now.  If any of those guys get playing time early and prove it, then maybe Castro is a mid-season trade.

[clone52]

22 minutes ago, MTV said:

Willi Castro is a valuable utility man, even if his offense doesn’t shine next year he’s a perfect Segway to Austin Martin and his ability to play quality defense at several positions and be a pinch runner are worth  whatever the Twins decide to pay him next year. Nick Gordon has a little more offensive upside, but his defense is not good and he’s fairly limited to 2B/LF/CF while being an almost strictly righty platoon hitter, something this lineup has enough of.
 

I see the FO trading Larnach, it seems like a good time to move on from both sides.

 

there’s a world where the team trades Jeffers, but I don’t see it happening. He’s a good platoon/offensive option over Vázquez and his production is going to be hard to replace with a different bat for a pitching piece in return.

Twins had some C's in AAA and AA have really nice offensive years and I'm guessing at least 2 of them are on the 40 man roster.

It was amazing that the Twins only used 2 catchers all season.  That likely doesn't happen next year (one or the other will likely get dinged up), so that'll be the chance to see those younger guys get a shot.  If they pan out, then maybe Jeffers is a useful trade chip.  But right now, I'd have to be blown away for a Jeffers trade offer.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

32 minutes ago, Dman said:

I guess I am not convinced the Twins will come up with another Pablo Lopez type deal this offseason.  With Paddocks return and if they can resign Maeda I think the Rotation moves are likely smaller this year.  I don't know if the TV contract stuff is going to resolve itself or not yet but with that uncertainty I have to believe they look long and hard at Trading Polanco and possibly even Kepler if the returns are half way decent.  I would look to build a deal around one of them for pitching if possible.

I can't see them trading Jeffers for pitching at this time.  Catcher is such an important position and getting offense from that position such a bonus to the lineup it would take a big deal to get that done IMO.  An all around skilled catcher is as rare as a high end pitcher.  I would stick with Jeffers for now.

I don't see Castro being enough to be the main piece in a deal.  It would be rare for a utility player to fetch much on the market.  I guess Zobrist was a player able to bring back good returns but I don't think Castro is at that level just yet.  If a team was willing to overpay for Willie I would take that deal in a heartbeat, but I don't see it happening.  I think he has more value to the Twins than anything he could bring back in a trade.

Larnach is a wild card for me.  I think he is better than the numbers indicate right now.  I think he is a solid defender in left and that his power will play eventually.  I wouldn't sell low on Larnach but again if a team came with a solid offer for what I think he could\should be then I would take it.  He isn't a great fit for the current roster and if he brought back more pitching that would be helpful.

Hard to day what will develop on the trade market but I have to believe the Twins will make some trades this offseason and hopefully they can land another good arm or two in those deals.

I think the uncertainty of the TV deal would be a reason why the FO makes a sell high trade. the contract negotiations could drag out to very close to opening day to see who blinks, maybe even a 1 or 2 year deal as a stopgap.

If the FO can bring back the right pieces, they could field a competitive team and reduce payroll.

I hate to trade away Jeffers or Castro, they filled important roles for the ‘23 team, but you gotta give value to get value, and payroll might be crunched in ‘24.

[nicksaviking]

Nice work on this. Obviously trades for our own young players will always be controversial.

I'm with others, I'd trade Jeffers, but they better already have Garver or another offensively competent option ready to go. I don't want to promise an offensive black hole when the catcher is up all season.

I'd move Castro as well, but not if it means bringing Michael Taylor back. His strikeouts were an underrated problem this year; can't bring him back if Buxton, Julien and Wallner are also starting. But I agree, Castro is likely to regress, if a utility player is at peak value, move him.

I'd be happy to go back to the Reds, but I don't like Ashcroft and I'd bet the front office wouldn't either. This rotation is now, unbelievably, made up of strikeout artists. I think getting a pitch-to-contact groundball arm would be a poor fit at this time.

As for Larnach, it's not like I've given up on him, but there are a half dozen young players I'd now rather see. Completely agree with moving him in a package deal.

[Mike Sixel]

Zero chance I trade Jeffers. If he catches 100 games he's a top 5 catcher in MLB last year. Zero chance you get back a player that is that much better than who he'd replace (like, who are you getting back that is 2-4 wins better than who he replaces, and why is that team trading that star?)?

Zero. Nada. Nil. No chance I deal Jeffers. 

You're literally giving up 2-4 wins with any of those replacements you mention, how is the team better by getting below replacement level at catcher? 

Castro? I'm not sure you get much value back for a utility guy. I'm not dealing him for a random RP, for example. 

[DJL44]

If I look at the Twins roster for players who are likely at peak value right now here's my list:

Edouard Julien

Matt Wallner

Royce Lewis

Joe Ryan

Bailey Ober

Jhoan Duran

Brock Stewart

Griffin Jax

I don't want to trade any of those players. If someone wants to offer too much for Brock Stewart or Griffin Jax I'd listen.

[MMMordabito]

As much as I like Willi Castro, I can understand the sell high take.  He really does give a manager some in-game flexibility, so that value will be tough to replace.  I guess Nick Gordon could be the poor man's Castro, but he plays every position worse than Castro, IMO.

Just no on Jeffers.  Catching can be even harder to come by than pitching at times.  The Twins have a good one and should keep him as long as they can.  Jeffers is one that I would actually extend.  I guess there could be an offer that couldn't be refused out there.

Larnach doesn't seem like a sell high candidate, but a trade that helps both sides and gives a couple players some new scenery would be fine.

Good topic.

[TopGunn#22]

Great Topic !!  Selling High is always a risky proposition but should never be discarded out of hand.  Buying Low is also risky but the same applies.  I have no problem using BBTV's as a baseline because by and large it's a pretty good site.  It has it's flaws but you've got to use SOMETHING as a baseline and I haven't found anything better.  While I have to agree that trading Jeffers would be unlikely, the trade proposed by Riverbrian of Jeffers for Jarren Duran is interesting.  Duran broke out this year and would solve the Twins CF problem for a LONG time.  IF...IF... Buxton was ever able to return to form and play CF like he used to, you could slide Duran to LF and have 2 guys that would cover so much ground you could play a refrigerator in RF.  In this trade scenario the Twins keep Vasquez and promote Camargo.

Trade #1:  The top rated "sell high" guy on the Twins would be Joe Ryan.  He tantalizes, but frustrates as well.  I sell high and deal him to the Brewers for an outstanding package.

Brewers get:  Joe Ryan 27 year old SP  44.8 value. 

Twins get:  Corbin Burnes 28 year old former CY Young winner 30.5   Garrett Mitchell OF 7.4 and Peguero 5.8 RP. 

Total 43.70.

Brewers do it for purely payroll reasons.  Woodruff is out for 2024.  They probably feel they can't afford Burnes.  Teams will come knocking for Burnes, the Dodgers, Cardinals, Reds.  Twins outbid everyone with Ryan, but they get a far superior pitcher than Ryan will ever be and he's just ONE YEAR OLDER than Ryan.  In addition, the Twins add a good bullpen arm and get a really solid OF prospect in Mitchell who got hurt and missed most of 2023.  His value is down but to get Ryan, the Brewers have to give him up.  This will cost the Twins BIG BUCKS.  But as young as the Twins are and with more youth soon to ascend to the major league club they would sign Burnes to a rich extension and build their rotation around Burnes and Pablo Lopez.  How would you like to roll into the playoffs with those two at the top.  Who needs Sonny Gray with Corbin Burnes in the fold??

The above deal is made with no consideration as to what the payroll will be with the ongoing Balley Sports situation.  The next deal is made with the same disdain of what our payroll could or should be.

Twins trade Mike Wallner 25 year old OF 22.9 value and Josh Winder 26 year old SP 6.0 value to Padres (28.90 total value).

Twins get:  Juan Soto 24 year old OF 22.9 value.  If the payroll wasn't already over budget, this deal puts the Twins well over the threshold but it's worth it to add a bat the caliber of Soto to hit #3 or #4.  And he's one year YOUNGER than Wallner!!  I hate giving up Wallner but getting Soto instead is a no-brainer.  All it costs you is money Pohlad family!!  

The Reds need a catcher but the departure of Joey Votto leaves them with no negative value contracts to move.  I'd sell Vasquez to them for a bag of baseballs and promote Camargo.  Or, I offer him to Miami and I pick up a chunk of his salary for Sixto Sanchez (the Marlins version of Matt Canterino).  Sanchez is 26 years old and because he can't stay healthy has a net zero value.  He's a gamble with a high ceiling but like Canterino can't stay healthy.  I'd take the risk to shed the payroll.  Imagine if Canterino and Sanchez were healthy for 2024??  

I've got to think a little about what kind of deal I could make for Larnach 7.8 and Miranda 5.4 (total 13.2).

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

I think that in any trade scenario, replacement needs to be considered. The dearth of MLB-ready catching really rules out moving Jeffers IMHO. Another consideration would be if there is more room to reach the player's ceiling. Perhaps a player like Castro has reached that ceiling, perhaps not. I think that Jeffers is a ways from his ceiling, although he had some pretty good batted ball luck this year. 

[DJL44]

The other reason not to trade away a good catcher is you can leverage that position in the playoffs. I'm convinced one reason the Phillies perform better in the playoffs than in the regular season is the ability to play Realmuto every day.

[tony&rodney]

an important consideration in any trade is whether BOTH sides see value in the transaction. When one thinks of a specific player exchange, ask yourself whether this is what the other team wants. 

A couple os teams have already indicated what they see as needs. Miami is looking for a catcher and a shortstop.  Cincinnati has position players galore but is looking for pitching. Seattle wants someone who hits at 2B, 1B,  and in the outfield.  So, some teams can be possibilities for Falvey while others are unlikely. 

The issues with BTV are pretty deep and you can see yourself some of the suggestions (Twins get Max Muncy & James Outman and send Pablo Lopez to the Dodgers). The idea of Juan Soto in any lineup is favorable. If you are a Padre fan how do you feel about a trade where Griffin Jax and Trevor Larnach head to San Diego and Soto goes to the Twins? This is an overpay by the Twins. I just don't see it. Conversely, Seattle has some pitchers and BTV has them valued very highly. Yet Seattle will listen if an offer fills their needs just as Miami was willing to add two players along with Lopez to acquire Arraez when the values by BTV favored Lopez by a significant margin.

I do not know what conversations are in process or are going to occur, but the Twins have some young players to offer if they find a guy to fill their wishes without destroying their own roster. Selling high sounds great but I'm not convinced that players like Castro, Jeffers, Wallner, Julien, and Lewis have peaked. They are just beginning to learn the game and have much more to add to what they showed this past season. Most importantly, the budget may be real important this offseason because players like Burnes ($16+M) and Soto ($33M) are not outlandish if the Twins player payroll remains around $155 million.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Great Topic !!  Selling High is always a risky proposition but should never be discarded out of hand.  Buying Low is also risky but the same applies.  I have no problem using BBTV's as a baseline because by and large it's a pretty good site.  It has it's flaws but you've got to use SOMETHING as a baseline and I haven't found anything better.  While I have to agree that trading Jeffers would be unlikely, the trade proposed by Riverbrian of Jeffers for Jarren Duran is interesting.  Duran broke out this year and would solve the Twins CF problem for a LONG time.  IF...IF... Buxton was ever able to return to form and play CF like he used to, you could slide Duran to LF and have 2 guys that would cover so much ground you could play a refrigerator in RF.  In this trade scenario the Twins keep Vasquez and promote Camargo.

Trade #1:  The top rated "sell high" guy on the Twins would be Joe Ryan.  He tantalizes, but frustrates as well.  I sell high and deal him to the Brewers for an outstanding package.

Brewers get:  Joe Ryan 27 year old SP  44.8 value. 

Twins get:  Corbin Burnes 28 year old former CY Young winner 30.5   Garrett Mitchell OF 7.4 and Peguero 5.8 RP. 

Total 43.70.

Brewers do it for purely payroll reasons.  Woodruff is out for 2024.  They probably feel they can't afford Burnes.  Teams will come knocking for Burnes, the Dodgers, Cardinals, Reds.  Twins outbid everyone with Ryan, but they get a far superior pitcher than Ryan will ever be and he's just ONE YEAR OLDER than Ryan.  In addition, the Twins add a good bullpen arm and get a really solid OF prospect in Mitchell who got hurt and missed most of 2023.  His value is down but to get Ryan, the Brewers have to give him up.  This will cost the Twins BIG BUCKS.  But as young as the Twins are and with more youth soon to ascend to the major league club they would sign Burnes to a rich extension and build their rotation around Burnes and Pablo Lopez.  How would you like to roll into the playoffs with those two at the top.  Who needs Sonny Gray with Corbin Burnes in the fold??

The above deal is made with no consideration as to what the payroll will be with the ongoing Balley Sports situation.  The next deal is made with the same disdain of what our payroll could or should be.

Twins trade Mike Wallner 25 year old OF 22.9 value and Josh Winder 26 year old SP 6.0 value to Padres (28.90 total value).

Twins get:  Juan Soto 24 year old OF 22.9 value.  If the payroll wasn't already over budget, this deal puts the Twins well over the threshold but it's worth it to add a bat the caliber of Soto to hit #3 or #4.  And he's one year YOUNGER than Wallner!!  I hate giving up Wallner but getting Soto instead is a no-brainer.  All it costs you is money Pohlad family!!  

The Reds need a catcher but the departure of Joey Votto leaves them with no negative value contracts to move.  I'd sell Vasquez to them for a bag of baseballs and promote Camargo.  Or, I offer him to Miami and I pick up a chunk of his salary for Sixto Sanchez (the Marlins version of Matt Canterino).  Sanchez is 26 years old and because he can't stay healthy has a net zero value.  He's a gamble with a high ceiling but like Canterino can't stay healthy.  I'd take the risk to shed the payroll.  Imagine if Canterino and Sanchez were healthy for 2024??  

I've got to think a little about what kind of deal I could make for Larnach 7.8 and Miranda 5.4 (total 13.2).

 

 

 

Joe Ryan is very much not a sell-high guy. People forget that his ERA was around 2.80 before his groin injury, and if he had stayed on that pace, he probably would have had a great shot at winning the Cy Young this year. I remember his value being over $100M before his injury and it does not make sense for the Twins to sell low on a controllable starter.

Also, Preller only knows how to buy, and I don't anticipate that he'll let Soto go. I also think that the Brewers are unlikely to trade Burnes with multiple controllable players/prospects. If the Twins have an extension in place for Burnes, that likely ups his value to around $50M or $60M, similar to how the Mariners' trade for Luis Castillo involved them giving up way more than BTV said they should. Seems like a big risk to try and outbid the Dodgers, Mets, Giants, Yankees, etc. for Burnes' services.

[Parfigliano]

On 10/19/2023 at 7:16 AM, mnfireman said:

Jeffers cannot be traded before a suitable replacement is in place, I don't want Vazquez behind the plate for 125+ games if 2023 is his norm.

While Castro might fetch a better return, I would be more open to trading Gordon, Larnach & Miranda. 1 guy plays all positions covered by these 3 (except 1B) and 2 of them could be highly sought after by the right team(s).

Free Trevor Larnach. He deserves a chance, but this FO does not seem willing to give it to him. Package him with Miranda and try to fill some needs.

I can see giving up Larnach but would hold on to Miranda.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree "Never Seen" that at one time Ryan's value was as high as $100 on BTV's.  But Burnes is only ONE year older and currently is, and probably always would be a superior pitcher.  Ryan is an enigma to me.  Lights out one time, giving up 4 HR's in 3 innings another.  If I could spin him to the Brewers and get Burnes as well as those other two players I'd do it in a heartbeat.  I'd consider spending to extend Burnes so that my rotation was fronted by Burnes and Pablo Lopez.  Burnes = much better than Joe Ryan until Ryan figures out how to control a breaking pitch.  

[KirbyDome89]

23 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Zero chance I trade Jeffers. If he catches 100 games he's a top 5 catcher in MLB last year. Zero chance you get back a player that is that much better than who he'd replace (like, who are you getting back that is 2-4 wins better than who he replaces, and why is that team trading that star?)?

Zero. Nada. Nil. No chance I deal Jeffers. 

You're literally giving up 2-4 wins with any of those replacements you mention, how is the team better by getting below replacement level at catcher? 

Castro? I'm not sure you get much value back for a utility guy. I'm not dealing him for a random RP, for example. 

Liked because I also think there's zero chance Jeffers is moved. If MN could fool some team into giving up a solid, starting CF'er I'd consider the swap, but that's not happening so....

Conversely, I'd be shocked if he's a top 5 catcher in baseball next year, even if he's starting a majority of the games behind the plate. I really doubt he's going to OPS in the mid .800s vs RHP moving forward, and he likely isn't going to rock a BAbip pushing .400 on the season, which is fine because he doesn't have to, but this season seems like a pretty far departure from what Jeffers looked like his first 2 full seasons. Maybe he just took a giant step forward, but color me a bit skeptical. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Liked because I also think there's zero chance Jeffers is moved. If MN could fool some team into giving up a solid, starting CF'er I'd consider the swap, but that's not happening so....

Conversely, I'd be shocked if he's a top 5 catcher in baseball next year, even if he's starting a majority of the games behind the plate. I really doubt he's going to OPS in the mid .800s vs RHP moving forward, and he likely isn't going to rock a BAbip pushing .400 on the season, which is fine because he doesn't have to, but this season seems like a pretty far departure from what Jeffers looked like his first 2 full seasons. Maybe he just took a giant step forward, but color me a bit skeptical. 

I agree.... My point is more that people underestimate how nearly impossible it would be to replace his productivity. I have no doubt he's top ten.... That's not a place to decrease talent.