4 Options for the Twins at First Base if Alex Kirilloff Can't Go

[arby58]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

For all the interest in playing Brooks Lee out of position, Yunior Severino deserves more discussion. 

I forgot to mention that Severino's first at bat at St. Paul was impressive - it landed 467 feet from home plate.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, pierre75275 said:

I think Julien is the way to go. Let him face lefties also, maybe pinch hit for him late in the game.

Miranda or Severino can be the short side platoon.

Then go out and sign one of Hader or Snell and Montas on a pillow contract

Severino is a switch hitter - and his OPS numbers from both sides of the plate in 2023 were remarkably similar: .901 batting left, .889 batting right. If he is the real deal, no reason to platoon him.

[Murph101]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

For all the interest in playing Brooks Lee out of position, Yunior Severino deserves more discussion. While he has primarily been a second or third baseman, he did play `first base in 15 games for St. Paul. While they are different types of hitters, they put up similarly good numbers with both spending about the same amount of time last year between AA and AAA. Lee had 39 more plate appearances, but they scored a similar number of runs (83 for Lee, 80 for Severino), and both had 84 RBIs. Lee hits far more doubles (39 versus 17) and Severino far more home runs (35 versus 16). They draw a similar number of walks (56 for Lee, 51 for Severino). Severino strikes out a lot more (173 versus 91), but his OPS is also significantly higher. I suppose a cynic would say that Severino's strike out rate makes him a natural for the Twins, but if he can replicate those power numbers . . . He's also just 23 years old (Lee is 22), so both should have promising futures for the Twins or elsewhere.

I would give Severino every opportunity. 

[nicksaviking]

Julian seems like the best internal option.

If the rest of the league overlooks Rhys Hoskins like this board is, I'd scoop him up though.

Though he looks like a typical slugger, he only has a career 24% K rate. What would be appealing to the Twins, is he's also good at getting on base due to taking some elite at bats. For his career, he sees 4.41 pitches per plate appearance. For comparison, Ryan McMahon led the league this year at 4.38. With the Twins seemingly dead-set on taking as many pitches as possible, it seems like Hoskins is exactly what they are trying to do.

[KBJ1]

We haven't had a high average power hitting 1B since Morneau.

I was really hoping Kiriloff would be that 2nd coming. That said, he just can't stay healthy (what else is new with this team) and his future is in doubt.

As much as we would love to fantasize over Alonso or Goldschmidt they are too expensive and too old and expensive. 

Julien or Lee at 1B? No & no.

Lanarch or maybe Severino would be the only internal options to fit the position and neither would have the upside of Kiriloff. 

What we need more is a RH 5 tool left fielder. Acuna, Soto, Judge - you get the picture. We have a bunch of granted above average fielding outfielders, but they all hit 220 with 20 hr, a few SB and a ton of strikeouts. That just doesn't cut it.

Then we need to re-sign or replace Gray with similar.

Sign Solano or Carmago, hope Kiriloff recovers and has a career year and bring up Martin to play CF. We need hitters, not 220 average stop-gaps in the outfield.

Sign Castro, he is an MVP utility player & has surpassed Gordon. Sorry Nick, but trade him. Farmer needs to be insurance for SS & 3B. Keep Kepler & Polanco for now with the caveat that they can and would be traded during the season depending on the teams performance and the readiness of young guys coming up. If we trade for above mentioned stud OF, then Walner or Kepler are gone. 

Buxton is likely done, but if on the small chance he comes back and can play, then Martin is the backup and also takes Famers backup spot with Castro or Miranda waiting to be backing 3B.

[D.C Twins]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Sliding Lee all the way down the defensive spectrum doesn't feel like the right move. Of course he could always move back up the spectrum, but, generally speaking, you want to keep your big time prospect playing as high up on the spectrum as you can. I think it'd be far more likely they move Julien to 1B and give Lee 2B before they'd do it the other way around.

My plan would be to explore the trade options for an elite bat that I could plug into the 3/4 hole and never have to think about them. I expect that to be a combination of too expensive and there not to be options with multiple years of control available so the cost isn't worth it (Alonso is going to get paid after next year and I doubt the Twins are the ones who want to pay him). Since I don't see a long-term answer, and don't believe the Twins have quality depth to be making trades for 1 year guys, I don't expect a trade.

Because of that I'd go with a Solano type signing (cheap veteran who can be replaced if they don't perform or a young guy beats them out), and giving Miranda (I still think he's an MLBer, but was never going to be a star), Severino, Julien, Lee, Martin, and Kirilloff's shoulder the chance to battle it out for the spots on the right side of the infield.

This.... this..... aaaaaaand... THIS!

Do not mess with Lee at 1B... waaaay too valuable somewhere else in the infield. 

[Minny505]

Even if Kirilloff is out for all of 2024, I would stick with internal options:

• Polanco
• Julien
• Miranda
• Farmer
• Larnach
• Severino
• Lee

Another 2mil contract for Barrels isn't a terrible idea, but not necessary. He could probably be re-signed in February again after the rest of the roster has shaken out.

[Markdumont25]

I'd hard pass on the big name external veterans. Although we don't have any clear cut 1B, it's dizzying the amount of young, cheap internal infield talent we have that are either already MLB ready or right on the cusp. For a team that will always have payroll limitations I think that money is much better spent elsewhere, preferably continuing to stack the rotation and bullpen.

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

No one's going to move a Gold Glove CF to 1B just in the name of health. 

2017 was a long time ago. 2024 Byron Buxton can barely run.

[TwinsAce]

I was trying to sift through the potential trade options at 1B and came up with Brandon Drury.  Since it is the Angels, I figure anything is possible, but I doubt he would be traded.  (Drury grew up an Angels fan.)

Seems like Drury would be similar to Solano in some ways except with a lot more power, better defense, better speed, and similar flexibility.  Downside is more chase/whiff/k% and less OBA since Drury doesn't walk.  He also has spent most of his time at 2B, so in some ways, he would be similar to our current 2B logjam.

With that in mind, I anticipate the current roster providing most of the 1B ABs next year unless they are concerned about AK.
 

[Mike Sixel]

Solana is a backup. He should not be plan A. I'm not interested in trading for one year of Alonso. I am interested in taking a chance on upside.....

Miranda

Severino

Julien

Polanco

Buxton

Larnach 

[mikelink45]

Save trade capitol and money with internal options and use our assets for pitching. 

[jmlease1]

43 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

 

What we need more is a RH 5 tool left fielder. Acuna, Soto, Judge - you get the picture. We have a bunch of granted above average fielding outfielders, but they all hit 220 with 20 hr, a few SB and a ton of strikeouts. That just doesn't cut it.

 

yes, but every team "needs" an MVP-caliber LF. I mean, what are we talking about here? the choice can't be between what we currently have and getting an MVP candidate. No front office can realistically produce that.

[mickster]

3 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Alonso certainly fits what the FO covets. I was surprised at how little baseball trade values puts on his trade value. Goldschmit as well. I'd be thrilled with either. That being said, there are too many young players looking for a place to play in the field. I'd put a trade as a luxury item rather than a needed addition.

Hoskins and Bellinger will likely get QO and be very expensive. Candelario would an interesting addition. 

Alonso scares me a bit as reminds me a bit of Donaldson in persona and may not fit the clubhouse.......Candelario would be solid and cheaper optionn

[LA Vikes Fan]

Unless Hoskins us available relatively cheap (unlikely) I would stay with in house options. and I think we have a few. Start the season with a decision of whether Julien is your long term 2B or whether you want that position available for Lee in 2024 or 2025. I think Julien is the 2B for the next 5 years so I put him at 2B, and give Polanco a 1B glove to learn the position as part of being a super utility guy.  I also don't understand the doom and gloom on Miranda. He was hurt last year and it showed when he tried to play. IF he is healthy, he and Polanco share 1B while Polanco and Julien share 2B. Great platoon since you have a RH hitter, LH hitter and switch hitter.  Miranda hit in AA, he hit in AAA, and hit in 2022 at the MLB level. If he isn't healthy, then Polanco is the primary 1B and you have a spot open for Larnach, Severino, or Lee (with Julien moving to 1B), whichever one looks the best in ST. Bring in a guy on the way up from the system, not some older mediocre vet (unless you can get Hoskins since he's better than mediocre). 

In either event, Solano is gone and Farmer stays. Donnie barrels was a nice regular season guy last year, but he didn't hit in the playoffs, has no power to speak of, is a below average fielder, and is 36 so he isn't likely to get better, he's likely to get worse. I know that sounds very cold but that's what we need to be in the off season.  The IF group is then Lewis, Correa, Julien, Polanco, Farmer, and Miranda if he's healthy and swinging well, or Larnach, Severino or Lee if he isn't.  AK can break into that group when he's healthy in place of whoever is hurt or ineffective (and at least one of them will be one or the other).  I think the plan will be Miranda at 1B with Polanco a super utility IF/platoon 1B/insurance for Julien at 2B/DH unless Miranda can't go.  And I think that's the right plan. Save your free agent money for pitching, pitching, and more pitching.  

[RpR]

Goldy or Gallo

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

No one's going to move a Gold Glove CF to 1B just in the name of health. 

They moved him to DH in the name of health 

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

They moved him to DH in the name of health 

Did not work very well either.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

24 minutes ago, RpR said:

Did not work very well either.

Agreed, but “Effectiveness” wasn’t the question, it was if it were possible.

[farmerguychris]

I think a 1st base platoon of Miranda and Julien sounds pretty good.  Bonus points as they can both also play at least 1 other infield spot when needed.  This FO likes flexibility, and this would give us a lot more than signing a big name like Goldschmidt who has maybe a year or 2 left and who can only play 1st or DH.

[Shaitan]

CJ Cron is always available and, should Kirilloff recover, he's always seemingly expendable too.

I think it comes down to how much patience the FO has with Kirilloff's injury history at this point -- if they seek a longer term player or a role player.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Sign Solano or Carmago, hope Kiriloff recovers and has a career year and bring up Martin to play CF. We need hitters, not 220 average stop-gaps in the outfield.

Martin still has plenty to prove, in the 'can hit MLB pitching' category. He had a .791 OPS at St. Paul in 2023.

[Chaz1966]

Resign Grey to be the #2 behind Lopez and in front of Ryan, Paddock and Ober to start season. That's a pretty strong rotation, and then use money to shore up the pen. 

Look within to keep 1B warm til Kirillof gets healthy or someone steps up and claims the position. I'd much rather look to find an outfielder who can hit. This team strikes out to much and needs an everyday outfielder who can hit higher then .220. We have some infield talent in minors if needed, so trading a Polanco and or Kepler may bring back a hitter or a more elite bullpen arm.

Leave Lee alone, no 1B for him, he's much more valuable at 2nd or 3rd. Maybe look to move Lewis to outfield if Lee moves up to 3rd.

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, Chaz1966 said:

Resign Grey to be the #2 behind Lopez and in front of Ryan, Paddock and Ober to start season. That's a pretty strong rotation, and then use money to shore up the pen. 

Look within to keep 1B warm til Kirillof gets healthy or someone steps up and claims the position. I'd much rather look to find an outfielder who can hit. This team strikes out to much and needs an everyday outfielder who can hit higher then .220. We have some infield talent in minors if needed, so trading a Polanco and or Kepler may bring back a hitter or a more elite bullpen arm.

Leave Lee alone, no 1B for him, he's much more valuable at 2nd or 3rd. Maybe look to move Lewis to outfield if Lee moves up to 3rd.

Wallner and Kepler aren't going anywhere, where are you finding a really good CF? And are you paying him big money with Buxton around (or trading a lot to get him)? 

I can't believe I have to type this gain, but Wallner played 44 games in left and put up 1.5 fWAR.....or, at that rate, the 2nd best LFer in baseball if they just let him play 140 games out there....

[jishfish]

5 hours ago, TwinsAce said:

I was trying to sift through the potential trade options at 1B and came up with Brandon Drury.  Since it is the Angels, I figure anything is possible, but I doubt he would be traded.  (Drury grew up an Angels fan.)

Seems like Drury would be similar to Solano in some ways except with a lot more power, better defense, better speed, and similar flexibility.  Downside is more chase/whiff/k% and less OBA since Drury doesn't walk.  He also has spent most of his time at 2B, so in some ways, he would be similar to our current 2B logjam.

With that in mind, I anticipate the current roster providing most of the 1B ABs next year unless they are concerned about AK.
 

I went through the same exercise and landed on Connor Joe as a possible interesting/cheap name. He's 31 so doubt the Pirates have him in their long-term plans. 50 games at 1B last year plus 80 in the OF corners, while grading out as at least an average defender at both spots, so could also platoon with Wallner in a COF spot.

He's not a typical power 1B/COF, but he walks at an above-average rate (11%) and only strikes out around 22% of the time. Wouldn't hate it if the price isn't high, even if it isn't a flashy move.

[dcswede]

I hear Miguel Sano is available

[arby58]

8 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

And frankly, I think I'd rather go this way even if Kirilloff's recovery is going to go well into the season. Why? because I do think this FO is a bit prone to the sunk-cost fallacy when it comes to veteran players. (most teams are, so I'm not bagging on them that much for it) Look at how Gallo managed to stick on the roster for the full year. What I don't want to see is them taking a flyer on a vet who turns out to be washed up, but sticks around long past the sell date because there's no need for the roster spot yet, and they keep hoping he'll figure it out, blah blah blah regressioncakes.

Kepler, Pagan, Maeda, and Paddack are non-examples of the sunk cost fallacy.

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Kepler, Pagan, Maeda, and Paddack are non-examples of the sunk cost fallacy.

Paddock is not at all, he was literally signed to an extension that gets them value of he's healthy. Nor is Maeda. Kepler might be, but they were right. 

[Fatbat]

The whole buy a big time 1st basemen isn't going to happen. We even have too many internal options to discuss at this point. Polo and Julien can back up anyone that wins the job in spring training. Likely candidates will be Miranda and Severino. Now go out and get a front line SP. 

[dxpavelka]

Time for my annual reminder that we moved on from Eddie Rosario to make room for Kirilloff & Larnach.  Still waiting on adequate return.