Twins 3, Reds 7: Ryan Struggles, Correa Exits Early as Steer, Reds Top Twins

[Nate Palmer]

Twins pitching couldn't lock down a dangerous Reds lineup. Adding to the pain, Correa leaves game early as the Twins lose the series opener in Cincinnati. 

Image courtesy of Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Box Score
SP: Joe Ryan: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K (84 pitches, 54 strikes (64.3%)
Home Runs: Royce Lewis (15), Alex Kirilloff (9)
Bottom 3 WPA: Joe Ryan (-0.178), Matt Wallner (-0.096), Dallas Keuchel (-0.077)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

With the Guardians losing to the Royals earlier in the day, the Twins magic number hit five. The Twins hoped to lower that number even further as they prepared to take on the Reds, with Joe Ryan leading the way from the mound. 

Correa Exits in the Second
The Twins had an early blow dealt to them as Carlos Correa was pinch-hit for in the second inning. Correa exited due to a flare-up of his ongoing struggles with Plantar Fasciitis. Kyle Farmer replaced Correa in the lineup and at shortstop in the field. Royce Lewis remained at third base to continue his development there. 

Top of Two Bad, Bottom of Two Worse
While the Twins saw their shortstop leave in the top half of the inning, the Reds put runs on the board in the bottom half. Noelvi Marte put the first run on the board with a single to center field. As Michael A. Taylor fielded the ball, Joey Votto challenged him by going first to third on the single. A move that also allowed Marte to reach second and place two runners in scoring position. 

Will Benson tried to make it not matter where Votto or Marte stood on the base paths, but Taylor was involved again. Benson drilled what looked like a three-run home run. Instead, Taylor jumped and reached over the wall to turn a home run into a sac-fly, putting the Reds up 2-0. 

Lewis: Same Song, Different Verse
While Connor Phillips hadn’t allowed any hits into the fourth inning, that was all about to change as Lewis stepped into the batter’s box. As Lewis had made a habit of doing when the Twins needed a big hit, he came through with one. He hit his 15th home run of the season to cut the Reds lead in half, making it 2-1. 

The "Great American Bandbox"
A game in Cincinnati would only be complete with some more home runs. Benson got his revenge on Ryan and Taylor in the 4th inning. This time, he hit a two-run home run and placed it where Taylor could not bring it back in. 

Alex Kirilloff didn't want to be left out of the party and hit his own solo shot in the seventh inning. The home run was Kirilloff's ninth of the season and was his only hit of the game as he went 1 for 3. 

Keuchel Used Out of the Bullpen
As the Twins shuffle their pitchers in an attempt to figure out roles for the playoffs, Dallas Keuchel had an opportunity to work out of the bullpen. His first inning went smoothly, only issuing a walk. His second inning turned ugly as he gave up three runs, and the Twins went down 7-2. 

Gray, Farmer Return to Cincy
Over the past season, the Twins and Reds have lined up on several trades. Sonny Gray and Farmer were both part of those trades and fully enjoyed returning to the place where they once played. As mentioned on both television and radio, Farmer is very grateful for the Reds and their willingness to allow him to play shortstop. 

Gray used his familiarity to give an assist to his bullpen mates. He hooked them up with a great reservation and picked up the tab as well! On the Reds side, Spencer Steer wanted to show off his development has continued and went 3-for-4. Those three hits included a well hit double that bounced off the outfield wall. 

What’s Next?
The Twins will look to even the series on Tuesday as they send Kenta Maeda to the mound. After a seven-inning outing last time out, Maeda will look for another strong appearance tomorrow. 

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Keuchel	0	0	0	0	58	58
Winder	14	0	25	0	0	39
Jax	0	16	0	13	0	29
Varland	0	29	0	0	0	29
Pagán	0	0	0	22	0	22
Funderburk	0	16	0	0	0	16
Durán	0	0	9	0	0	9
Thielbar	0	0	0	0	0	0
Floro	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[Nashvilletwin]

I’m wondering if a RH batter hitting .270 with 22 dingers, 82 RBIs and an OPs of .815 in over 540 ABs playing in 147 games would be considered our best hitter, if not team MVP?

Fleeced.

BTW, that’s also how you develop a young player with just 28 career major league games prior to this season. You let the player play to see what you have. The Reds did and now look what they have.

[thelanges5]

Was really hoping Joe would cement himself as the number 3 starter. Probably 2 starts left before the post season. 

[darwin22]

Best thing about today was seeing CLE gag away a 2-run lead in the 8th inning to lose to KC.

Ryan's inconsistencies are making him a very risky option IF the Twins season continues into October.

Flush this game and wake the bats up tomorrow night.

[Nashvilletwin]

13 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Was really hoping Joe would cement himself as the number 3 starter. Probably 2 starts left before the post season. 

Yeah, a Maeda/Ober combo as the #3 might be an alternative.  Still time to make that decision. 

[wabene]

53 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’m wondering if a RH batter hitting .270 with 22 dingers, 82 RBIs and an OPs of .815 in over 540 ABs playing in 147 games would be considered our best hitter, if not team MVP?

Fleeced.

BTW, that’s also how you develop a young player with just 28 career major league games prior to this season. You let the player play to see what you have. The Reds did and now look what they have.

It probably came down to Steer or Julien. Julien does have better numbers. Would you prefer no moves are made? If you are aggressive, you do stand the chance of crapping out. 

[Blyleven2011]

Batters cold , 5 hits and 1 walk or this pitcher Phillips someday will be a Cy young recipient ( era coming in was over 8 runs per 9 )  ...

Ryan wasn't sharp and couldn't locate his pitches , not a good recipe for a win ...

Lewis again hits a homerun and just might make 20 and another rbi , still possible for him to have the most rbis and on the team ,  in  just 65 games played  ...

Kiriloff keeps hitting homers to the opposite field  ...

 

[SwainZag]

Good game to miss.  One hell of a catch by MAT though!

[TWTwinsFan]

Joe and Bailey throws 90mph fastball is a concern, maybe their season is done.

[mikelink45]

Not sure that this game proved anything except Lewis is proving to be even more than we had hoped for.  Potential superstar status ahead if this keeps up.  Kiriloff getting hot would really push us forward in the playoffs.  Correa's injury is a real and painful injury and this is a bad time for it to flare up.  Finally Kuechel is not our BP solution.  Nor is he really ready for a rotation place in the playoffs.  He can get away with his mix on occasion, but it is not something we can count on. 

[LewFordLives]

At this point there's really no reason to play Correa these last two weeks. Let him sit and hope his foot improves at least somewhat by October.

[CRF]

We just have a strong tendency to come up empty against these rookie/marginal pitchers. Real flat. Ryan was very shaky and looks kind of lost out there at times. I think he hit the wall for this season. I don't know if I'd trust him going forward in the playoffs. Keuchel is pitching his way off the post season roster, and I'm ok with that. Might as well sit CC the rest of the way and hope his foot improves. It's REALLY nice to have MAT back. Awesome catch last night! Lewis makes this team go, but he can't do it all by himself...other guys have to step up. 

[Patzky]

9 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Was really hoping Joe would cement himself as the number 3 starter. Probably 2 starts left before the post season. 

Again we have depth over top shelf pour. Obviously Sonny and Pablo 1-2 probably in that order (and hope Sonny doesn't have that one inning to taint the whole series) 3 could be Kenta, or Ryan.. maybe a stretch to Paddack or Varland.. even a further stretch to Bailey Ober or Keuchel. Let's how we don't have to stretch that far. Seven startees and two stars.

[Patzky]

9 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Best thing about today was seeing CLE gag away a 2-run lead in the 8th inning to lose to KC.

Ryan's inconsistencies are making him a very risky option IF the Twins season continues into October.

Flush this game and wake the bats up tomorrow night.

At least the pitching and hitting stunk simultaneously. Maybe this shows how you need sparkplugs like Solano and Castro in the lineup to get the big bat engine greased. Correa needs to sit at least until they get home. (But hope not much past that.) 

[Patzky]

58 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Not sure that this game proved anything except Lewis is proving to be even more than we had hoped for.  Potential superstar status ahead if this keeps up.  Kiriloff getting hot would really push us forward in the playoffs.  Correa's injury is a real and painful injury and this is a bad time for it to flare up.  Finally Kuechel is not our BP solution.  Nor is he really ready for a rotation place in the playoffs.  He can get away with his mix on occasion, but it is not something we can count on. 

Iwl was "Keuchel is not our BP solution" and I thought "batting practice solution"!

[umterp23]

Vazquez $10MM a year guarantees he gets starts every other day.  Can't figure the FO out on this one.  Yes, has a pedigree of championships, but was he the absolute difference maker on those teams?  Hard to say yes to that.  The thing that bugs me about Vazquez acquisition is guaranteed money for a guy who is now 33 years old.  Two years ago, FO said no thanks to Garver as a catcher in his early 30's for I believe less money per year than Vazquez.  

Jeffers unproven going into this year, but he has sure turned the corner for the good.  For our bingo card fans:

.272 AVG - .369 OBP - .455 SLG - .824 OPS    vs.     

.213 AVG - .270 OBP - .309 SLG - .579 OPS

Pretty sure the bottom line we would have assumed that was going to be Jeffers.  

Before we clinch, Jeffers has earned at least the right to catch back to back days prior to Playoffs as he should be the game one starter catching Lopez and then catching Gray.  Let's get to playoffs 1st though.  Spot is waiting at the table and we are slowly trying to secure.

 

[KBJ1]

Bring up Paddock & Stewart. Lose Kuechel & Winder. Ryan to the pen.

Do not want to see Headrick, Sands or anyone else of there ilk on the roster.

[Nashvilletwin]

11 hours ago, wabene said:

It probably came down to Steer or Julien. Julien does have better numbers. Would you prefer no moves are made? If you are aggressive, you do stand the chance of crapping out. 

You don’t know that. What about Miranda, Larnach, Kiriloff, Wallner, etc. - all or most of whom were higher ranked? Who knows what we offered and what they wanted.  Besides, that only assumes you make the trade in the first place.  There is a difference between being “aggressive” and making ill-conceived, risky moves. Yes, you need to make moves - I agree 100%. But the Mahle trade was a reach from the start. And because the trade was such a disaster, we ended up getting Lopez for Luis, CES and Steer - that’s three ultra bonafide players and existing or potential all-stars (and spare us the Salas upside), Sometimes it’s ok to stand pat (like at this year’s deadline) and sometimes it makes sense to roll the dice (Lopez-Arraez for example when SP help was truly needed when it was apparent Mahle wasn’t going to work). 

BTW, are you sure you like Julien more? Steer plays an extremely competent 1B, 2B, 3B and LF. He hits against both lefties and righties - unlike (Rocco’s use of) Julien.  He’d be leading the Twins in hits, runs, extra base hits, HRs, RBIs, ABs and Games Played, How about Kiriloff? Steer or Kiriloff? Don’t get me wrong, I love both Julien and Kiriloff. But Steer is a legit MLBer, and given his use by his manager on a playoff calibre team, mind you,  has outproduced both of them (and every other Twin for that matter) this season.  CES isn’t far behind.

[Mortimerkenny21]

They walked 5 Reds in total, I think 3 or maybe even 4 of those went for runs. That's a game killer, plus our bats were cold. Let's take one back tonight.

[wavedog]

Anytime we face a young rookie starter with a high era you pretty much know we will have difficulty scoring runs.  Don't know if that is true or not but at least it seems to happen frequently to us.   Also seems like #9 batters in the order have success against us as well.   Maybe I just need to lower my expectations.   That was a great catch by Taylor.   Hope a couple of days of rest will be all Correa needs.  We don't need players going down now.      

[mickster]

13 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’m wondering if a RH batter hitting .270 with 22 dingers, 82 RBIs and an OPs of .815 in over 540 ABs playing in 147 games would be considered our best hitter, if not team MVP?

Fleeced.

BTW, that’s also how you develop a young player with just 28 career major league games prior to this season. You let the player play to see what you have. The Reds did and now look what they have.

Hindsight on this trade makes it look like a bad one for the Twins.   At the time - it was the right move.     Lopez for Arreaz looked bad early in the season as well; however a good one at the time and still viewed that way.   One that was a WIN/WIn for both teams.

[Nashvilletwin]

50 minutes ago, mickster said:

Hindsight on this trade makes it look like a bad one for the Twins.   At the time - it was the right move.     Lopez for Arreaz looked bad early in the season as well; however a good one at the time and still viewed that way.   One that was a WIN/WIn for both teams.

I agree with you that the Lopez - Arraez trade was a necessary move and a good deal for both clubs.  But let’s not forget that it was precipitated by the failure of the Mahle trade. Mahle was supposed to be Lopez - but when it became obvious that Mahle would not fill that role, an aggressive move had to be made.

The Mahle trade was never the right move for three reasons. First, Mahle was never really consistently very good (he was just ok) and had recent injury issues/concerns. Second, the Twins probably didn’t quite know how good a ballplayer they had in Steer; clearly he was behind several current players/prospects in the pecking order to whom Steer is now clearly superior.  Third, that particular trade (Mahle for Steer and CES - who may turn out to be the even bigger gem) was too risky given the fundamental flaws of last season’s club. Yes, hindsight is 20/20, but breakdowns in player evaluations and an overestimation of the teams capabilities made that trade tough for us from the get go. This is possibly why the FO, wisely IMHO, pretty much stood pat this season.

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I agree with you that the Lopez - Arraez trade was a necessary move and a good deal for both clubs.  But let’s not forget that it was precipitated by the failure of the Mahle trade. Mahle was supposed to be Lopez - but when it became obvious that Mahle would not fill that role, an aggressive move had to be made.

The Mahle trade was never the right move for three reasons. First, Mahle was never really consistently very good (he was just ok) and had recent injury issues/concerns. Second, the Twins probably didn’t quite know how good a ballplayer they had in Steer; clearly he was behind several current players/prospects in the pecking order to whom Steer is now clearly superior.  Third, that particular trade (Mahle for Steer and CES - who may turn out to be the even bigger gem) was too risky given the fundamental flaws of last season’s club. Yes, hindsight is 20/20, but breakdowns in player evaluations and an overestimation of the teams capabilities made that trade tough for us from the get go. This is possibly why the FO, wisely IMHO, pretty much stood pat this season.

 

I have no inside information but I'm not so sure about "Lopez being precipitated by the failure of the Mahle trade". 

Mahle started the season in the rotation. The club gave up a lot for him so I have no reason to believe that Mahle wasn't a big part of the 2023 plan going forward. Lopez was an addition to and in the process they put together a pretty nice rotation with decent depth to it.  

The Mahle trade officially became a failure when Tyler suffered the elbow injury requiring Tommy John surgery... which was a different injury than what he suffered in 2022 and it occurred after Lopez was acquired.   

Starting pitching is expensive. If you want to sign a talented free agent arm... they cost big money to sign. If you want to trade for a talented arm... they cost big prospects to acquire. I think it's really that simple. They liked Mahle and I'm sure other teams liked Mahle so they paid the price for him and that price was Steer and E-Strand. 

When I look at Steer and E-Strand in a Reds uniform... I don't see a blown deal. That happens. All I see is the extremely important need to develop pitching internally so you don't have to pay that kind of cost to bring it in. That's what I see. The need to do it.  

I'm not mad at the deal or the end result of it... If you have to bring in pitching... the cost is the cost. It's like complaining about the fuel prices when you fill up. You need fuel... the price is the price. Steer and E-Strand for Mahle is the cost for filling a need that wasn't addressed internally. It's the tax assessed for needing it... for not creating your own. 

It's the need to pay it that I think about. It's the filling out your rotation with 8.5 million dollars worth of Bundy and Archer types because the pitchers developed by the organization are not fully cooked yet. It's the trading of young prospects to fill in the spaces the developed pitcher should occupy. 

I'm not mad at the trade... I'd be more apt to be mad because they had to. Even though... on that front... I generally give them a break for this because 2020 had to be a development blow. 

Going forward as we get further away from 2020... development is how I will judge this front office.      

[jkcarew]

4 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

…, we ended up getting Lopez for Luis, CES and Steer - that’s three ultra bonafide players and existing or potential all-stars…

Steer plays an extremely competent 1B, 2B, 3B and LF.

Aside from the assumption that the Arraez deal had anything to do with the Mahle deal…Steer has a long way to go to be an all-star. And CES hasn’t even established himself in the league yet.

Meanwhile there is much data that says Steer is the opposite of “extremely competent” defensively. And CES is worse yet…will need to hit at a 1B/DH level to stick in the league, because that’s where he’ll be playing.

Obviously, the trade has been one-sided since the guy we acquired basically hasn’t played. Don’t know if there was a lack of due diligence on the Twins FO part? So, a bad mistake.
 

But, I’ll need to see way more from Steer and/or CES to declare this to be on a franchise-altering scale, which you seem to suggest.

[RpR]

It is all could have, should have, would have but didn't ; the deal was done.

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, umterp23 said:

Vazquez $10MM a year guarantees he gets starts every other day.  Can't figure the FO out on this one.  Yes, has a pedigree of championships, but was he the absolute difference maker on those teams?  Hard to say yes to that.  The thing that bugs me about Vazquez acquisition is guaranteed money for a guy who is now 33 years old.  Two years ago, FO said no thanks to Garver as a catcher in his early 30's for I believe less money per year than Vazquez.  

Jeffers unproven going into this year, but he has sure turned the corner for the good.  For our bingo card fans:

.272 AVG - .369 OBP - .455 SLG - .824 OPS    vs.     

.213 AVG - .270 OBP - .309 SLG - .579 OPS

Pretty sure the bottom line we would have assumed that was going to be Jeffers.  

Before we clinch, Jeffers has earned at least the right to catch back to back days prior to Playoffs as he should be the game one starter catching Lopez and then catching Gray.  Let's get to playoffs 1st though.  Spot is waiting at the table and we are slowly trying to secure.

 

Mitch Garver this year:

3	32	TEX	AL	77	304	262	40	70	11	0	17	45	0	0	39	74	.267	.366	.504	.870	135	132	6	2	0	0	1	D2/H3

[David Maro]

Team will not and can't trust Ryan in October. He seems to be unstable on the mound. Looks like he is aiming his pitches and looking down at the rubber after throwing the pitch. When the score was 2-0 and he walked #8 hitter,needed to be pulled. The #9 hitter was robbed of a homerun earlier by MAT. Second time hit the ball 30 ft. further making it 4-0. He is looking more like Bert,giving up homeruns every outing. This team should be resting players,but no can't because the still haven't won the division.

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I have no inside information but I'm not so sure about "Lopez being precipitated by the failure of the Mahle trade". 

Mahle started the season in the rotation. The club gave up a lot for him so I have no reason to believe that Mahle wasn't a big part of the 2023 plan going forward. Lopez was an addition to and in the process they put together a pretty nice rotation with decent depth to it.  

The Mahle trade officially became a failure when Tyler suffered the elbow injury requiring Tommy John surgery... which was a different injury than what he suffered in 2022 and it occurred after Lopez was acquired.   

Starting pitching is expensive. If you want to sign a talented free agent arm... they cost big money to sign. If you want to trade for a talented arm... they cost big prospects to acquire. I think it's really that simple. They liked Mahle and I'm sure other teams liked Mahle so they paid the price for him and that price was Steer and E-Strand. 

When I look at Steer and E-Strand in a Reds uniform... I don't see a blown deal. That happens. All I see is the extremely important need to develop pitching internally so you don't have to pay that kind of cost to bring it in. That's what I see. The need to do it.  

I'm not mad at the deal or the end result of it... If you have to bring in pitching... the cost is the cost. It's like complaining about the fuel prices when you fill up. You need fuel... the price is the price. Steer and E-Strand for Mahle is the cost for filling a need that wasn't addressed internally. It's the tax assessed for needing it... for not creating your own. 

It's the need to pay it that I think about. It's the filling out your rotation with 8.5 million dollars worth of Bundy and Archer types because the pitchers developed by the organization are not fully cooked yet. It's the trading of young prospects to fill in the spaces the developed pitcher should occupy. 

I'm not mad at the trade... I'd be more apt to be mad because they had to. Even though... on that front... I generally give them a break for this because 2020 had to be a development blow. 

Going forward as we get further away from 2020... development is how I will judge this front office.      

I  agree with much  of your post, particularly your point about accountability for development. However, even though Mahle started the season in the rotation, there was much discussion and speculation about his health throughout the off season.  Many of us, including myself, had the under on Mahle pitching 100 innings well before the season started. With Maeda in the same camp (I was wrong about Maeda - I think I set the over under at 150 innings combined for the two), the FO had to make a move.  If Mahle’s good health had been a certainty, I think it’s possible they would not have done the Lopez-Arraez trade.  If for any reason, that’s not the case, then it still probably speaks to the quality of pitching they expected from Mahle if injury free.

Regardless, we are where we are - which is playoff bound and in a great spot to compete with a bright future ahead. Lopez is a wonderful addition and we all hope he anchors our rotation for several years.

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Aside from the assumption that the Arraez deal had anything to do with the Mahle deal…Steer has a long way to go to be an all-star. And CES hasn’t even established himself in the league yet.

Meanwhile there is much data that says Steer is the opposite of “extremely competent” defensively. And CES is worse yet…will need to hit at a 1B/DH level to stick in the league, because that’s where he’ll be playing.

Obviously, the trade has been one-sided since the guy we acquired basically hasn’t played. Don’t know if there was a lack of due diligence on the Twins FO part? So, a bad mistake.
 

But, I’ll need to see way more from Steer and/or CES to declare this to be on a franchise-altering scale, which you seem to suggest.

Arraez obviously is now basically a perennial all-star who will win another batting title while leading his team to a possible playoff berth.  Steer is probably the second most valuable position player on a Reds team battling for the playoffs and would be leading the Twins in virtually every offensive category (if Rocco ever let him play).  He will likely finish in the top three in NL ROY and is probably closer to being an all star than any other Twins player except Lewis.  CES was probably the headliner for Reds in the deal and is off to a great start. There’s a lot of room between the cup and the lip, but the values of both Steer and CES are significantly higher today than 12 months ago.

You are correct that we will need to see a lot more out of Steer and CES before we can say the trade was a franchise altering screwup by our FO.  But you must admit, there is definitely a non-zero possibility of that and there’s no chance that the opposite could happen.  Both Steer and CES likely currently project as long term, successful major leaguers with some all-star potential for whom our return was less than negligible.  

[Aerodeliria]

20 hours ago, wabene said:

It probably came down to Steer or Julien. Julien does have better numbers. Would you prefer no moves are made? If you are aggressive, you do stand the chance of crapping out. 

Both things can be true. The deal for Mahle appeared to be decent (although some believe Mahle's overall health condition was not well researched: https://www.si.com/fannation/bringmethesports/twins/were-tyler-mahles-shoulder-issues-public-info-before-mn-twins-trade). On the other hand, Steer was consistently overlooked for possible playing time despite being a very consistent hitter in AAA ball.