Is Byron Buxton Turning into Giancarlo Stanton?

[Hans Birkeland]

Byron Buxton is selling out for power, has trouble staying on the field, frequently looks lost at the plate, and his DH-only status is gumming up the rest of the roster. He also signed a big contract that means he has to play. Where have we seen that before?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Byron Buxton has had a couple of nice games lately, staying on pitches a little better and hitting some balls hard since he returned from the paternity list. He also had a two-homer game against Lance Lynn last week. Is he back?

That's a tricky question to answer because not only do we not know his physical status given all his injuries, but we also don't know if his injuries have piled up to the point that his being "back" isn't nearly the same as it once was. Even when he's been amid several hot stretches this year, the results have not been as astounding and dynamic as his 2020-2022 seasons when he was healthy. He still swings and misses too much, isn't barrelling the ball as often as he used to, and can't touch lefties, and this is all without any wear and tear related to playing the outfield.

What used to be a five-tool player has suddenly become one-tool (maybe two if his knees feel good enough to steal a base). He still has power, but his hit tool is gone, maybe forever, and his fielding and arm strength are moot points.

Although his contract isn't debilitating, especially given the escalators that could inflate its value, it does mean the team has to figure out ways for Buxton to help the team, even in his diminished state. A corollary, unfortunately, can be found in the Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton.

Stanton arrived as a much-hyped power prospect and had big seasons for Miami from 2010-2017. He could play a decent right field with a cannon arm and had a 70th percentile sprint speed as recently as 2017, his last in Miami. That year he also challenged the MLB home run record, finishing with 59 bombs. He even had a few years where he hit between .270 and .290.

New York did well in terms of the prospects they gave up to acquire Stanton. They gave up Starlin Castro, by then on the downside of his career, and two prospects who appeared in the majors in 2021 but have washed out since. However, New York did take on Stanton's contract, a 13-year, $325M whopper signed in 2015.

After hitting for a combined 142 OPS+ with Miami, Stanton has hit a 125 OPS+ in New York. That seems okay, but he has averaged 83 games per season due to injury, and his performance is trending down, not up. He has a 93 OPS+ this year while playing in about half of his team's games.

Leg injuries are the prime culprit for Stanton, as he has missed time with a strained posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee (2019), a strained left hamstring (2020), a strained left quadriceps (2021) right ankle inflammation, and left Achilles tendinitis (2022) and another strained left hamstring this year. His stance has gotten increasingly awkward at the plate, as he utilizes an overly closed stance to try and drive pitches out over the plate, leaving him flailing at anything thrown inside.

He still hits home runs; he has fourteen this year and hit 31 last year (with a Buxtonish .211/.297/.462 slash line). His speed is gone, down to the fifth percentile, and it's best not to look whenever he gets an opportunity in the outfield.

Regardless of his declining performance, the Yankees continue to play Stanton. The rest of the lineup isn't hitting, so it's not like they have better options. He is mainly playing DH, which has limited the lineup flexibility of the Yankees, and possibly cost them injuries to their other players who could rest at DH once in a while. The slumping DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo are older players forced to play the field daily so Stanton can hit choppers to the left side and lightly jog to first. They also have $118M owed to him over the next four years, so even if they wanted to cut bait, it just isn't feasible. Stanton is a hard worker doing his best to contribute, but the optics aren't good for an underperforming team.

What does this mean for Buxton? A couple of things. 

For one, he needs to hope Stanton isn't his future; a shell of a former great trying to drown out the boos while his body continually fails him.

Two, he also needs to find out if an operation can fix his ailing knees and hips. Magglio Ordonez fixed his knees with shock-wave therapy and played five more effective years; on the other side, Jose Valentin got a ligament transplant from a cadaver but couldn't get back to playing shape (he was 38 then). Those were radical Hail Marys, but rest, rehab, and clean-up procedures haven't done the trick for Buxton.

Third, the team needs to determine if it can rely on Buxton to be a superstar anchor in its lineup, whether he plays the field or not. One of the Yankees' errors is depending on Stanton to carry their offense along with Aaron Judge. They have made massive investments in their pitching, but supplementing Judge and Stanton hasn't been a priority. Not surprisingly, the Yankees' offense has stalled for long stretches over the past few years, lacking a multi-dimensional offensive threat to give Judge a break. Meanwhile, they continue to write the likes of Franchy Cordero, Jake Bauers, Oswaldo Cabrera, Greg Allen, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa into their lineup.

The Twins traded away Luis Arraez partially on the assumption that Buxton and Correa could anchor the lineup. But that just hasn't happened. The team goes when rookie Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff go, and now Kirilloff has hit the IL with a shoulder injury he could not play through. Like the Yankees, the Twins have struggled to score (the past few weeks notwithstanding) and have relied heavily on the home run ball when they do.

If Buxton is just Stanton, a one-dimensional slugger with a sub .300 OBP who looks hopeless in the box half the time, then this lineup has a problem. Relying on rookies and Max Kepler to put up runs against high-level pitching is too much to ask. Not being able to cycle guys through the DH slot so Buxton can strike out four times a game isn't a winning strategy, either. If he isn't going to hit, those at-bats need to go to Matt Wallner, Kirilloff, Julien, Royce Lewis, and possibly a right-handed deadline acquisition. Maybe pinch-hitting is his role for this year. He may need a lengthy IL stint.

The calculus changes if Buxton can use his legs again in the batter's box and starts hitting lefties. The team would still be a right-handed bat short, but having a true thumper in the middle of the lineup would drastically alter how opposing pitchers navigate it. As currently constructed, any Ryan Yarbrough-type can thoroughly dominate the Twins' offensive attack, knowing they don't have to worry as much about the Juliens and Kirilloffs of the world and can focus on coming up with a plan to set down Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer.

The Twins are in a tough spot. They built this team around Buxton to a large extent. If he's good, they're good - that's been true for nearly a decade. Maybe he needs to close his stance a little.

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[Karbo]

To me it looks like not playing in the field has messed with his head. IMO the guy gets hurt at DH, might as well either put him on IL or put him in the field. From all reports Lewis will be back soon, and the DH spot will be needed for players that can hit. I have no idea what is ailing with his knees, hips or basically lower body, but its on him and the team to figure out a reasonable solution. Maybe he can't be the gold glove centerfielder he was, but he can play an adequate OF that's where he needs to be.

[Vanimal46]

It’s just sad talking about Buxton like this so soon. I’m sure we all figured it would end like this with Buxton’s body betraying him. The hope was it would be delayed until his age 34 or 35 season. Not when he’s 29. 

[Florida Flash]

So at his salary he "has to play" (which makes no sense to me if he cant perform) but does he have to hit in the 3 or 4 hole? That makes less sense to me.

[LastOnePicked]

Good article, but a perpetually sad topic. So much of this team's performance and spirit has been placed on Buxton's shoulders, and his body just can't hold it. I do give the FO some credit for trying to relieve some of that pressure with the signings of Correa, but Correa clearly has his own nagging performance issues, and perhaps Houston's lineup and system made him seem more of an elite superstar than he really is.

It's just one of those things, I guess. Buxton was an exciting prospect and showed flashes of greatness. If we're all lucky, maybe Buxton has one great Gibson-esque postseason moment in him. But it better come soon, because I don't forsee him finishing this contract.

[Beast]

If Buxton doesn’t find his way back to the outfield, he might be a worse player than Stanton right now (and Buxton is 4 years younger).

Stanton has 100 fewer ABs this year and only 2 fewer HRs.  Stanton is driving in about .18 runs per AB, Buxton about .14.  Though, the slash lines are nearly identical.  They are both hitting primarily in the 3-4 hole and Stanton hasn’t really had better players in front of him.  Judge has been hurt, it’s been a lot of Gleybar Torres (who is no better than Julien), Volpe (who’s been no better than Correa), LeMahieu (who’s been awful), Rizzo (who’s been bad).  Some things called Bauer and Peraza.

This year, Stanton has a higher ISO (.245 to .230), a higher HR rate (6.4 to 4.9), a much lower K rate (24% to 31%), a higher hard hit rate (50.3% to 45.7%), he hits the ball to all fields better (25.5% pull rate to 39.7%).  Factoring those numbers, and the fact that Stanton has nearly equal production in fewer PAs, and some hard luck (BABIP of .197 vs. Buxton’s .253), and it looks like Stanton is the better hitter right now…..and it’s not really close.

Stanton has played 307 games since 2021, Buxton 238.  That’s resulted in 140 more total bases.  He’s walked 51 more times than Buxton over that stretch.  Driven in 90 more runs.  He’s struck out at a lower rate than Buxton over that time (28% to Buxton’s 30%).

Buxton’s only real saving grace in that comparison is his phenomenal 2021 season where he had an OPS+ of 171….but he only played in 101 of the teams games that year.  That was his age 27 season.  Stanton’s age 27 season was a 169 OPS+…..BUT….a .281/.376/.631 slash with 59 HRs, 123 Rs, 132 RBI and he played 159 games.  Oh, and he was the fricken MVP.  That’s over 50% of the home runs Buxton has hit in his entire career.

Finally, Stanton has played 100+ games in 10 of his 14 seasons.  Buxton 1 of 9.  

You’re comparing Buxton to Stanton as if it’s a bad thing.  We can only dream of Buxton being Stanton.  The Yankees may want to be mildly worried that Stanton might eventually age down into the prime version of Buxton.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Florida Flash said:

So at his salary he "has to play" (which makes no sense to me if he cant perform) but does he have to hit in the 3 or 4 hole? That makes less sense to me.

Preach!!!

[Woof Bronzer]

I suspect this is who Buxton is going to be the rest of his career.  He's not going to get magically healthier as he ages.  My belief is the Twins made the calculated decision that playing the field will further shorten his career, and he's done playing the field (as a Twin, at least).

What I don't understand - and this isn't just a Buxton thing - is whether he has been instructed by the organization to abandon his "hit" tool in favor of swinging out of his shoes every single time.  If so, yet another indictment of the FO's faulty offensive philosophy.  If not...is anyone in the organization telling him it aint working?  What adjustments are being made in his approach?  This is where I think Rocco's hands-off, "let players do whatever they feel is best" attitude really shows its flaws.  Sometimes players need to be instructed - "managed", if you will - especially if a player is actively hurting the team with his chosen approach. 

[Hans Birkeland]

25 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Preach!!!

He would look great in the 6 hole to me

[JD-TWINS]

Odd day to draw these comparisons as Buxton has 7 hits over last 4 games with 5 doubles? I do think, unfortunately, that there are scary similarities between Giancarlo & Byron.

Didn't pick up on the reasoning for the Buxton  scratch last night…assume it was some sort of injury related issue. It’s tiresome for sure.

Really can’t see the logic many push to “just put him in the outfield and let him play til he’s unable” ………he’s already hurt. Just because we don’t know all the details of his ailments doesn’t mean they must not exist. He’d play CF if he could. The Twins/Rocco would play him in CF if he could. I was ALL for him going on IL & making room for a healthy player to contribute. After the 7 hits in 4 games (5 doubles) since paternity leave, I was then reluctant to judge. Now what?

Hope he doesn’t become as rigid as Stanton - he’s really tough to watch & really fragile. Somehow, when Buxton plays, he seems to be able to run bases well. If he can’t return soon (in a day or two) I’d put him in IL until just before roster expansion in September.

[chpettit19]

Byron Buxton just makes me sad at this point. As terrible as it is to say, the Twins should probably be hoping he retires before the end of his deal (way before the end of it if his lower half is simply toast). They can't plan for him in any way, shape, or form moving forward. You can't bring in Taylor types, you have to bring in legit starting CFers. You can't block the DH spot with him either. You have to build your team as if he's the 26th man on your roster from here on out. And that's super depressing. So much talent all balled up into a body that just can't do it.

[JD-TWINS]

53 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Good article, but a perpetually sad topic. So much of this team's performance and spirit has been placed on Buxton's shoulders, and his body just can't hold it. I do give the FO some credit for trying to relieve some of that pressure with the signings of Correa, but Correa clearly has his own nagging performance issues, and perhaps Houston's lineup and system made him seem more of an elite superstar than he really is.

It's just one of those things, I guess. Buxton was an exciting prospect and showed flashes of greatness. If we're all lucky, maybe Buxton has one great Gibson-esque postseason moment in him. But it better come soon, because I don't forsee him finishing this contract.

CC hit .290 last year on the Minnesota Twins. He wasn’t hidden in the Houston line-up. We then signed him for $200M based on some realistic assumptions from ‘22. Unfortunately, his performance has tanked to career lows.

Buxton had 3 doubles two games ago. 7 hits in past 4 games he played. He can still play when healthy……fairly healthy. He’s not Willie Mays because he’s not durable! We/he’s got to live with his shortcomings relative to durability.

[D.C Twins]

Hopefully it will change in the future, and I am rooting for him... BUT....

Buck is a zero-tool player right now if we are being honest with ourselves. 

[JD-TWINS]

19 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

He would look great in the 6 hole to me

He batted 6th on the 21st, 22nd, 23rd, (off for birth) & the 29th……… 30th - 31st - 1st he batted 3rd or 4th but he also had 6 hits in those 3 games……..pretty confident in these numbers maybe off 1 hit?

Rocco seems fine moving him around now?

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He batted 6th on the 21st, 22nd, 23rd, (off for birth) & the 29th……… 30th - 31st - 1st he batted 3rd or 4th but he also had 6 hits in those 3 games……..pretty confident in these numbers maybe off 1 hit?

Rocco seems fine moving him around now?

He went back up in the order because Kirilloff was no longer in the order.

[umterp23]

Buxton was 2 for 8 on the 30th and 1st games batting in the 3 or 4 hole.  Other games late joy were in the 6 hole.  There is mental pressure applied of being in the 3 hole or cleanup as you are the man type of mentality pressure.  DH is hard enough as it is by not being fully engaged in all facets of the game.  30 minute stretches between each bat takes a special hitter, Buxton while doing his best isn't quite there.

People talk about wear and tear on knees playing in the field with sudden start / stops.  Why aren't we talking about knees when he is twisting and turning trying to hit a baseball and then 1st jab step out of the box to run if he has to run on potential base hits.  If his knees are bad, they are bad regardless of what he is or isn't doing.  

All-Star break, paternity leave, etc. was a great time to sit him down for 10-15 days to rest and recoup.  Now out with a hammy again.  Is his body because of other ailments creating other ailments by over compensating? Could be.  

He is limping to the season finish line at the moment and potentially for the rest of his career.

[Fezig]

Had Molitor continued to manage the Twins Buxton could have ended up having a Kirby Puckett type influence on the team. Hitting to all fields, bunting, spectacular defense, and smart baseball. Instead, he's what he is and will be considered a top 3 "what could have been" in all of MN sports history.

[MABB1959]

Sadly Buxton probably won't turn out what we hoped for.  So looking at the rest of the year and next.  Who are the power hitters that would serve the team well as a DH?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Fezig said:

Had Molitor continued to manage the Twins Buxton could have ended up having a Kirby Puckett type influence on the team. Hitting to all fields, bunting, spectacular defense, and smart baseball. Instead, he's what he is and will be considered a top 3 "what could have been" in all of MN sports history.

Molitor managed Buxton for 4 years. How long was it going to take for him to turn him into Puckett? Buxton was pulling the ball 45% of the time by the time Molitor left. If Molitor didn't have him doing all those things after 4 seasons I'm not sure why we'd think he'd do it over the next 4.

Was Molitor going to go Mr Miyagi on him and magically heal his knees, or stop him from getting hurt in the first place?

[Eephus]

His slide seemed to follow Correa calling him the best player in the world last May or so. He was hotter than heck for a few weeks and then he's the best player in the world and swinging for the fences. I also wonder what effect losing James Rowson as batting coach has had on his mental and mechanical approach.

[RJA]

Buxton and Correa both look like injuries and age have have caught up with them.  Having 50 million a year tied up in them is going to a big problem if they don’t rebound. 

[Teflon]

If modern technology can make a home ear-cleaning tool for the masses with a microscopic ear canal camera, I refuse to believe medical science can't fix Buxton for however many millions the Twins insurance would shell out.. Shut him down now for as long as necessary to surgically repair him and rehab him. I don't want to seem him at all in 2024 if he's going to be the same player he is at present.

They invented a unique surgery for Tommy John back in the day, Somebody needs to pioneer the "Byron Buxton" surgery.

[Dave The Dastardly]

7 hours ago, Fezig said:

Had Molitor continued to manage the Twins Buxton could have ended up having a Kirby Puckett type influence on the team. Hitting to all fields, bunting, spectacular defense, and smart baseball. Instead, he's what he is and will be considered a top 3 "what could have been" in all of MN sports history.

Inconceivable!

[Althebum82]

In Rocco's Thursday pregame radio interview, he confirmed the present issue is Buxton's knees (plural) and he was not a candidate to even pinch hit for either Wednesday or Thursday games.  Aside from the fact that no dramatic need for a pinch hitter actually presented itself in either game, it is writing-on-the-wall time when a statement like that is asserted with such total confidence.  Whatever the training staff is doing to "restore" him enough to struggle through multi-strikeout games with the rare two homer burst of hope is very likely not in his best interest physically.  

It is true that medical technology is far more advanced than in, say, Tony Oliva's end of career knee situation.  

But for the sake of his now newly expanded family as well as himself in my opinion the time has come to explore those medical options as best he can and consider the possibility of concluding his playing career.

Of course this is easy for me to say since I am not the one that would be walking away from a large multi-million dollar committment by the Twins.  And, most likely his agent would advise to the contrary.

But on the other hand, at least he may still be able to walk. 

Period.

 

[ewen21]

This article is another example of Buxton being unbelievably overrated.  Stanton has had a far more accomplished career than Buxton.  If Buxton turned into Stanton, he’d have to be Babe Ruth the next 5 years.   He’d have to hit 278 HR, drive in 713 runs.  Stanton is 33, Buxton is 29.  Buxton at 29 is Stanton at 33.

 

Let’s talk Stanton.  His lifetime OPS is .884, He’s got almost 400 homers (393), and he has over 1,000 RBI.  Buxton has never scored 70 runs in a season and Stanton had done it five times by the time he was 29.  Buxton has never come close to producing like Stanton did.  Maybe what you mean to say is Buxton at 29 is like a broken down Stanton at 33.  That would actually be closer to reality.

[ewen21]

19 hours ago, Fezig said:

Had Molitor continued to manage the Twins Buxton could have ended up having a Kirby Puckett type influence on the team. Hitting to all fields, bunting, spectacular defense, and smart baseball. Instead, he's what he is and will be considered a top 3 "what could have been" in all of MN sports history.

Coaching messed him up?  No.

He has proven to be pretty hard to coach and the Twins brass seem to think that he doesn't even need to be coached.  He doesn't make adjustments and isn't one who loves the offensive part of the game. The guy admits to his coaches and the press that he hates batting practice.

I think the real problem no one wants to talk about is that he isn't working hard enough at his craft and that he lacks the focus and desire to get through the rigors of daily life in major league baseball.

[SteveLV]

Long term, there seems little doubt that Byron will need at least one knee arthroplasty.

Short term, it truly does handcuff the team to have a part time player who only DH's.  I am not sure we are at this point yet, but eventually Bryon may need to sit down and decide if he is capable of continuing to play this game he clearly loves.

I am hopeful the Twins have insurance on his deal so they will not have to write off the entire guaranteed salary and curtail their options for salaries if he does need/decide to pull the plug.

Very sad situation.

[ewen21]

19 hours ago, RJA said:

Buxton and Correa both look like injuries and age have have caught up with them.  Having 50 million a year tied up in them is going to a big problem if they don’t rebound. 

Injuries and age of caught up with them? That may very well be true but bear in mind Byron Buxton is not even turn 30 yet. It’s kind a hard to say that a 29 year old player is being waylaid by the ravages of time.  If that’s what we’re going to go with then all praise of him should end today

[mwmarkland]

I agree that this situation seems bad, but perhaps there could be a silver lining if he can get back into the outfield. We need right-handed corner bats and perhaps Buxton is a fit there even with his reduced abilities? With the hope that playing in the field again helps his hitting.

 

[ferg8791]

Buxton holds the Twins career IL record with 13 visits by his 9th year, before the age 30. The record surpassed was 10 IL visits during the 15 year career of the much maligned Joe Mauer.

Buck has also emassed 1 career playoff hit.