Is Byron Buxton Turning into Giancarlo Stanton?

So at his salary he "has to play" (which makes no sense to me if he cant perform) but does he have to hit in the 3 or 4 hole? That makes less sense to me.

If Buxton doesn’t find his way back to the outfield, he might be a worse player than Stanton right now (and Buxton is 4 years younger).

Stanton has 100 fewer ABs this year and only 2 fewer HRs.  Stanton is driving in about .18 runs per AB, Buxton about .14.  Though, the slash lines are nearly identical.  They are both hitting primarily in the 3-4 hole and Stanton hasn’t really had better players in front of him.  Judge has been hurt, it’s been a lot of Gleybar Torres (who is no better than Julien), Volpe (who’s been no better than Correa), LeMahieu (who’s been awful), Rizzo (who’s been bad).  Some things called Bauer and Peraza.

This year, Stanton has a higher ISO (.245 to .230), a higher HR rate (6.4 to 4.9), a much lower K rate (24% to 31%), a higher hard hit rate (50.3% to 45.7%), he hits the ball to all fields better (25.5% pull rate to 39.7%).  Factoring those numbers, and the fact that Stanton has nearly equal production in fewer PAs, and some hard luck (BABIP of .197 vs. Buxton’s .253), and it looks like Stanton is the better hitter right now…..and it’s not really close.

Stanton has played 307 games since 2021, Buxton 238.  That’s resulted in 140 more total bases.  He’s walked 51 more times than Buxton over that stretch.  Driven in 90 more runs.  He’s struck out at a lower rate than Buxton over that time (28% to Buxton’s 30%).

Buxton’s only real saving grace in that comparison is his phenomenal 2021 season where he had an OPS+ of 171….but he only played in 101 of the teams games that year.  That was his age 27 season.  Stanton’s age 27 season was a 169 OPS+…..BUT….a .281/.376/.631 slash with 59 HRs, 123 Rs, 132 RBI and he played 159 games.  Oh, and he was the fricken MVP.  That’s over 50% of the home runs Buxton has hit in his entire career.

Finally, Stanton has played 100+ games in 10 of his 14 seasons.  Buxton 1 of 9.  

You’re comparing Buxton to Stanton as if it’s a bad thing.  We can only dream of Buxton being Stanton.  The Yankees may want to be mildly worried that Stanton might eventually age down into the prime version of Buxton.

I suspect this is who Buxton is going to be the rest of his career.  He's not going to get magically healthier as he ages.  My belief is the Twins made the calculated decision that playing the field will further shorten his career, and he's done playing the field (as a Twin, at least).

What I don't understand - and this isn't just a Buxton thing - is whether he has been instructed by the organization to abandon his "hit" tool in favor of swinging out of his shoes every single time.  If so, yet another indictment of the FO's faulty offensive philosophy.  If not...is anyone in the organization telling him it aint working?  What adjustments are being made in his approach?  This is where I think Rocco's hands-off, "let players do whatever they feel is best" attitude really shows its flaws.  Sometimes players need to be instructed - "managed", if you will - especially if a player is actively hurting the team with his chosen approach. 

Hopefully it will change in the future, and I am rooting for him... BUT....

Buck is a zero-tool player right now if we are being honest with ourselves. 

Buxton was 2 for 8 on the 30th and 1st games batting in the 3 or 4 hole.  Other games late joy were in the 6 hole.  There is mental pressure applied of being in the 3 hole or cleanup as you are the man type of mentality pressure.  DH is hard enough as it is by not being fully engaged in all facets of the game.  30 minute stretches between each bat takes a special hitter, Buxton while doing his best isn't quite there.

People talk about wear and tear on knees playing in the field with sudden start / stops.  Why aren't we talking about knees when he is twisting and turning trying to hit a baseball and then 1st jab step out of the box to run if he has to run on potential base hits.  If his knees are bad, they are bad regardless of what he is or isn't doing.  

All-Star break, paternity leave, etc. was a great time to sit him down for 10-15 days to rest and recoup.  Now out with a hammy again.  Is his body because of other ailments creating other ailments by over compensating? Could be.  

He is limping to the season finish line at the moment and potentially for the rest of his career.

Had Molitor continued to manage the Twins Buxton could have ended up having a Kirby Puckett type influence on the team. Hitting to all fields, bunting, spectacular defense, and smart baseball. Instead, he's what he is and will be considered a top 3 "what could have been" in all of MN sports history.

Sadly Buxton probably won't turn out what we hoped for.  So looking at the rest of the year and next.  Who are the power hitters that would serve the team well as a DH?

His slide seemed to follow Correa calling him the best player in the world last May or so. He was hotter than heck for a few weeks and then he's the best player in the world and swinging for the fences. I also wonder what effect losing James Rowson as batting coach has had on his mental and mechanical approach.

7 hours ago, Fezig said:

Had Molitor continued to manage the Twins Buxton could have ended up having a Kirby Puckett type influence on the team. Hitting to all fields, bunting, spectacular defense, and smart baseball. Instead, he's what he is and will be considered a top 3 "what could have been" in all of MN sports history.

Inconceivable!

In Rocco's Thursday pregame radio interview, he confirmed the present issue is Buxton's knees (plural) and he was not a candidate to even pinch hit for either Wednesday or Thursday games.  Aside from the fact that no dramatic need for a pinch hitter actually presented itself in either game, it is writing-on-the-wall time when a statement like that is asserted with such total confidence.  Whatever the training staff is doing to "restore" him enough to struggle through multi-strikeout games with the rare two homer burst of hope is very likely not in his best interest physically.  

It is true that medical technology is far more advanced than in, say, Tony Oliva's end of career knee situation.  

But for the sake of his now newly expanded family as well as himself in my opinion the time has come to explore those medical options as best he can and consider the possibility of concluding his playing career.

Of course this is easy for me to say since I am not the one that would be walking away from a large multi-million dollar committment by the Twins.  And, most likely his agent would advise to the contrary.

But on the other hand, at least he may still be able to walk. 

Period.

This article is another example of Buxton being unbelievably overrated.  Stanton has had a far more accomplished career than Buxton.  If Buxton turned into Stanton, he’d have to be Babe Ruth the next 5 years.   He’d have to hit 278 HR, drive in 713 runs.  Stanton is 33, Buxton is 29.  Buxton at 29 is Stanton at 33.

Let’s talk Stanton.  His lifetime OPS is .884, He’s got almost 400 homers (393), and he has over 1,000 RBI.  Buxton has never scored 70 runs in a season and Stanton had done it five times by the time he was 29.  Buxton has never come close to producing like Stanton did.  Maybe what you mean to say is Buxton at 29 is like a broken down Stanton at 33.  That would actually be closer to reality.

19 hours ago, Fezig said:

Had Molitor continued to manage the Twins Buxton could have ended up having a Kirby Puckett type influence on the team. Hitting to all fields, bunting, spectacular defense, and smart baseball. Instead, he's what he is and will be considered a top 3 "what could have been" in all of MN sports history.

Coaching messed him up?  No.

He has proven to be pretty hard to coach and the Twins brass seem to think that he doesn't even need to be coached.  He doesn't make adjustments and isn't one who loves the offensive part of the game. The guy admits to his coaches and the press that he hates batting practice.

I think the real problem no one wants to talk about is that he isn't working hard enough at his craft and that he lacks the focus and desire to get through the rigors of daily life in major league baseball.

Long term, there seems little doubt that Byron will need at least one knee arthroplasty.

Short term, it truly does handcuff the team to have a part time player who only DH's.  I am not sure we are at this point yet, but eventually Bryon may need to sit down and decide if he is capable of continuing to play this game he clearly loves.

I am hopeful the Twins have insurance on his deal so they will not have to write off the entire guaranteed salary and curtail their options for salaries if he does need/decide to pull the plug.

Very sad situation.

19 hours ago, RJA said:

Buxton and Correa both look like injuries and age have have caught up with them.  Having 50 million a year tied up in them is going to a big problem if they don’t rebound. 

Injuries and age of caught up with them? That may very well be true but bear in mind Byron Buxton is not even turn 30 yet. It’s kind a hard to say that a 29 year old player is being waylaid by the ravages of time.  If that’s what we’re going to go with then all praise of him should end today

I agree that this situation seems bad, but perhaps there could be a silver lining if he can get back into the outfield. We need right-handed corner bats and perhaps Buxton is a fit there even with his reduced abilities? With the hope that playing in the field again helps his hitting.

Buxton holds the Twins career IL record with 13 visits by his 9th year, before the age 30. The record surpassed was 10 IL visits during the 15 year career of the much maligned Joe Mauer.

Buck has also emassed 1 career playoff hit.