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Posted

With the Guardians losing ace Shane Bieber and trading Josh Bell/Aaron Civale, they seem out of contention. Not to mention that their schedule looks pretty difficult (@HOU/vsCWS/vsTOR/@TB/@CIN/vsDET/vsLAD/@TOR/@MIN/vsTB/vsMIN/@LAA/@SF/vsTEX/@KC/vsBAL/vsCIN/@DET) (13 series against contenders) and they generally have not played great baseball this year. The White Sox, Tigers, and Royals all sold and were not ever going to threaten the Twins.

Why Selling Didn't Make Sense

While it's hard to imagine where the Twins would be without Jhoan Duran and Joe Ryan, the Twins did not have an Eduardo Escobar or Nelson Cruz to trade this offseason. Per BTV, the values of Gallo (-0.7M), Gray (6.2M), Kepler (-0.4M), Maeda (4.1M), Pagan (-0.4M), Solano (0.8M), and Taylor (1.1M) don't give the Twins an opportunity to reap a big reward. For reference, Jose Salas of .181/.268/.265 (yes, his OBP is better than his slugging percentage) has a median value of 7.7M, and Aaron Sabato, a career .210 hitter in the minors, has a value of 1.5M. Selling Maeda, Gray, Taylor, and Kepler would not have improved the Twins' future outlook in any meaningful way, while drastically hampering the present.

Why Buying Didn't Make Sense

The Twins are not going to get anything done offensively unless Correa, Buxton, and Polanco step up. All three have had issues this year, and it is hard to imagine the team doing anything in September/October without at least two of those three returning to the all-star caliber players we know they are. As such, adding a bat like Dylan Carlson (who puts up league-average numbers) was not going to put the team over the top. The marginal difference between Max Kepler and Dylan Carlson was not worth the E-Rod+a top 30 prospect that it would have required.

Adding a bullpen arm or two did make a lot of sense, especially since Stewart is probably done for the year. I am not going to sit here and defend the FO on this, but adding a mid-leverage rental arm with a 4.00 ERA doesn't add a ton of value. In the next couple of weeks, Thielbar will come back (thus pushing Moran into the low-leverage role he deserves), and he'll form a good leverage corps with Duran and Jax. Floro/Balazovic/Pagan can pitch mid-leverage, and Moran/Ortega/AAA guy can get spoon-fed low-leverage. Certainly not optimal, but this is the best 'pen the Twins have had in my lifetime outside of maybe 2020.

What Next?

I wrote a topic a couple of weeks ago about how the Twins should consider 2024 when making their moves, since they lose a large number of veterans. After this year, the Twins' payroll drops more than $60M, and they need to figure out a few key spots. They'll need to add a reliable starter (unless you think Paddack and Varland can step into the opening-day roster), a leverage arm (unless you want to hitch your wagon to Stewart/Moran/Alcala), and an outfielder or two (unless you feel great about Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, and Nick Gordon with half a leg). This is more than accomplishable with $60M. However, they may still make some trades if they can't sign any of the top guys.

The Twins made their splashes in the winter and last summer. They have a lot of depth but not enough depth where they can get anything meaningful in a trade. Next year, they are set up nicely with a ton of unused budget and a relatively few holes to fill in reference to the amount of cash they have. The '23 Twins will likely make the postseason, and it's paramount that guys like Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Julien, Lewis, Duran, and Kirilloff get some experience. It's disappointing they didn't add anyone except Dylan Floro, but any middling move we, as fans, wanted would have drained more of the farm system and not seriously increased our chances. Selling would have netted next to nothing and hurt the development of our young players.

Posted

I think that was a well thought out piece.  Just not enough value in any of the right places to get anything done.  This team has a ton of talent but I have never seen the Twins so snake bit when either the offense is poor, The starters blow up or the pen blows the game.  It is uncanny how they have given away games because one area can't get the job done.  Still this is the team they believed in going into the season and this team will have to perform to get them out of this mess.  Not sure if they can or not but I sure am hoping they find a little magic down the stretch and give us hope for this year and next year.

Posted

The more I think about it, the more sense it makes.  I would add to your bullpen plan throwing a starter or two in the mix.  I’m very intrigued by letting Varland cut it loose in short stints and Maeda although I’d rather let him continue to start. Meada may bring the QO back into play but he will probably have to start the rest of the way and stay hot. 

Posted

No trade was going to make this team better but trading Gray could have helped for the future and moving Kepler would have freed up space for the guys that need to play. Instead, we're playing a bunch of guys who aren't worth all that much. 11 players on the Twins have had 200+ PA this year, five of them are over 30 and none of them are Larnich or Wallner. Somehow we've managed to have a old, underachieving lineup while not letting two former top picks get enough at-bats.

Again, I agree with the premise that the Twins will win the central but, man, what a crappy product.

Posted

I honestly think the bullpen will be pretty strong the remainder of the year.   Thielbar, Jax and Duran can do the majority of the workload,  Pagan and Floro can do your medium to low leverage.  Add in I do think we will be adding Keuchel.  Whether Keuchel is a bullpen arm,  gives days rest off for starting pitchers or allows Maeda to come to the pen,  it adds another arm to the pitching staff.   

Some stated we should have traded Maeda and or Gray, and I even brought this up as well.  However with the possibility on both (much higher on Gray)  the Twins can offer qualifying offers that get a 1st or 2nd round draft pick back if they reject the offer.   I think both will sign elsewhere and we will get a end of 1st for Sonny and a 2nd round draft pick for Maeda.  You have to consider that value vs anything you would have received plus knowing they can be major cogs to a potential run.  

The theme on this board is this is a flawed team.   I disagree,  I think this is the best constructed overall team in over a decade that is a tad light on right handed batting but not bad.  If Polanco, Correa,  and Buxton turn it on,  that fixes a lot of our right handed woes.  We just need the bats to wake up.   Correa has slowly been improving and Buxton looks like may be turning a corner.  I think as a team and the bats specifically we have significantly underperformed so far this season but we have the bats to compete.  This is by far the strongest starting pitching staff we have had,  and with Jax and Duran (even going through a bit of yips)  you still have a strong end of the bullpen.  That is a team if it comes together can win the WS but we do need the bats to improve.  

This is something I have also said for a while but I will continue to say.  The Pablo Lopez for Arraez deal is going to be very good for the Twins.  I suspect by the end of the year on a WAR basis Lopez will be within 1 point for this year.  Also add in the fact with the extension which it didn't sound like Arraez wanted to do you now get 2 extra years of Lopez because he was willing to sign a team friendly extension.   Losing Arraez hurts, but for the Twins not irreplaceable,  in actuality Julien is a very similar type of player (gets there with more walks than hits) but more power.    Infield bats we have a plethora of and we can continue to fill in any holes that pop up on the infield from internal candidates for the foreseeable future.  

I am fine with standing pat, would have been fine if we added a bullpen arm at the deadline or even had traded a starting pitcher and flipped some prospects for a bat,  however,  this is still a team that has a chance.  How high, maybe 2-4%,  but it is a chance that things can click.  Ultimately you need the starting pitching and this is the first year we can all say we have enough quality starting pitching going into any playoff series.  

Posted

Regarding trades made or not made, it's really the same old story: if a trade makes the team better you do it, and if it doesn't you don't. Sellers at the deadline will not accept anything that's not an overpayment and I expect that's what the FO encountered during the last week. This team doesn't justify overpaying in a trade so, unsatisfying though it may be, standing pat is the best outcome.

Posted
10 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

No trade was going to make this team better but trading Gray could have helped for the future and moving Kepler would have freed up space for the guys that need to play. Instead, we're playing a bunch of guys who aren't worth all that much. 11 players on the Twins have had 200+ PA this year, five of them are over 30 and none of them are Larnich or Wallner. Somehow we've managed to have a old, underachieving lineup while not letting two former top picks get enough at-bats.

Again, I agree with the premise that the Twins will win the central but, man, what a crappy product.

I agree with what you wrote - with just a couple caveats...

Regarding Gray...I would rather keep him than trade him away at any perceived discount.  Imagine the uproar if we made such a trade.  I'm not saying you were suggesting that - I'm just saying maybe that's what they were finding for trade offers.  And maybe not trading him gives us an increased chance of re-signing him?  IDK.

Regarding the older, under performing roster - I'm totally with you.  Hope is never a good strategy and it seems they just keep hoping those older guys will come around.  Maybe they will.  But maybe they won't.  In the meantime, to tag on to your thought process of opening things up for the younger bats, I see there are five guys with an .800 OPS or better.  All five of those players are our next wave of young guys:  Wallner, Julien, Jeffers, Lewis, Kirilloff.  The good news is that (when healthy), these guys seems to be making their way into the line up.  If these young guys can stay healthy, I'm confident they will push some of those older guys off the roster.

*  Disclaimer.  I count Kirilloff's OPS as .800 but it's actually .799.  Still - those are our top 5 OPS guys by a long shot.  

 

Posted

I can accept standing pat...to some degree.  Cleveland is all but conceding us the division.  We still have waaay too many LH OF bats.  SOMEBODY should have been moved.  Larnach to the Padres would have made sense with their dearth of LH bats.  I think last night everybody saw where Joey Gallo stands in the Twins plans.  Jeffers strikes out, leaving runners at 2B & 3B with just one out.  Cards have a RH reliever on the mound.  Rocco can't risk the inevitable Gallo strikeout, so he sends Solano up to PH and "Donny Barrels" comes thru with the game winning, 2-run single.  If you're Gallo on the bench, you lnow you've reached rock bottom.  He should just be DFA'd at this point.  Now I'm hearing Brock Stewart may be done for the season.  If so, there goes another effective arm from a BP that is running on fumes (not to mention the starting staff as well).  Maybe they could have made some minor moves around the edges.  But it's clear the FO just wasn't comfortable with the cost of whatever they were looking at (Lane Thomas??).  With the inevitable departures this offseason, and $60 million to work with, maybe the Twins will sign Blake Snell and finally have a LH in their starting rotation.  Maybe a RH OF bat will be available thru FA or a trade?  We still need to finish this season, qualify for the post season, and hopefully win at least one game (and maybe a series???).  There's plenty of time to discuss off season maneuvering during the cold, cold winter.  

Posted

Love the headline....I was at the last game the Twins won...... Joe May pitched I believe. All downhill since....Just checked.....Twins won a game in 2003 vs NYY....this was the last win at home....so Twins are 1-22 in last 23 playoff games.

 

 

 

image.png.955267f84d5264ecc18bd93cbc8d73a2.png

Posted

I don't think standing pat was prudent. The bullpen has had a lot of recent use. Even with getting Caleb Thielbar back the Twins bullpen seems short a reliable left handed arm. Moran has some decent stuff but his use has exposed weaknesses that teams seem to pick up on his pitching pattern due to relative lack of experience. The one area I was really hopeful for was an additional lefthander like the lefthander the Brewers received from the Diamondbacks. My two cents. 

Posted

Personally....I believe the Twins owners took Falvey's and Levin's phones and locked them up in a safe until the deadline was over......They've done enough damage the last few years to keep the Twins submerged in mediocrity for years. 500 is a good year. Get use to it.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

No, standing pat did not make sense. I didn't expect or even want huge additions but a capable RH bat and a capable RH reliever were eminently gettable. The front office didn't clear that relatively low bar.

On merely the idea they didn't add some one - kind of makes sense.  However we don't know who they were targeting, if they were a significant upgrade over what we have and what was the cost.  It appears for many players the cost was a fairly high bar.   In retrospect the Twins would have been better off making no moves last year.   As to RH bat,  if Correa, Buxton and Polanco perform, doesn't that negate some need for a right handed bat.  As to relievers,  Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagan, Floro seems like an above average bullpen.  You also have the possibility of moving Maeda to the pen. You have a few more arms that give decent innings.  Other than a top reliever who would have been very expensive I didn't see any major needle movers that will change whether this team can do well in the play offs or not.  This team has the players they just need to perform better than they have.   

Posted

Here's what didn't make sense. 

Falvey mentioned loving their 40 man roster and finding it tough to move on from them. Gallo, Ortega and Sands have no value and would not be taking 40 man spots on most other teams. 

Brock Stewart having a setback and not adding to the bullpen. If Stewart was about to come back maybe it makes some sense, but Thielbar is turning 37 soon and has had injury troubles lately as well. If both of them cannot make a solid comeback the bullpen is done. How can they sit back and rely on that? Winder and Henriquez have been awful this year and they don't seem to have any interest in promoting Funderburk.

Not finding some sort of upgrade to the right handed hitting options. Unless Anthony Prato is coming up soon and they have full faith in his abilities to hit lefties then they will continue to be the worst team against LHH. They're throwing out lineups with Solano at 3, Farmer at cleanup, Castro at 5 and Vazquez at 7. What do they expect to happen?

And finally, letting Keuchel leave even though he was way better than anyone could have hoped. The INTL league is tough on pitchers. The league OPS is over .800 and Keuchel generated whiffs and weak contact. The Twins have 5 viable starting pitcher options with Keuchel gone. Ryan is struggling mightily, Ober is hitting his inning high soon, Maeda just came back from TJ and Gray hasn't passed 130 innings in 4-5 years. Varland wasn't good and no one wants to see Dobnak ever again. Winder and Sands have sat on their butts in the bullpen all year raking in cash while only being let in for blowouts. A 6 man rotation was worth a try. I hope Keuchel immediately succeeds somewhere so we can add his name to the list of Twins on other teams that immediately succeeded after leaving.

Posted

I generally agree with the post except that it's missing one possibility - trading Larnach or Wallner for a good reliever with at least 1.5 years of control left. Was that possible? I don't know. I would have considered that kind of deal with Larnach, not sure on Wallner. I'm thinking , something like Larnach and a prospect like Severino or Urbina for Kyle Finnegan or maybe Wallner for Finnegan plus a Severino type propect from Washington. I'd be very curious to what as to whether that kind of a deal was out there.

Otherwise, I just don't think there are any trades that make sense to be had. The value of the first round draft choice we get if Gray rejects a qualifying offer is probably more than we could get for Gray as a two month rental. Maeda has some value, but it's probably a mid-level to lower-level prospect at best. Certainly not a quality reliever or right-handed hitter unless we want to trade rental for rental and then Maeda as a starting pitcher is the one with the most value. Gallo, Kepler, Farmer, Solano, Pagan simply have no value other than low level prospects if that. Trading Polanco or Maranda now is selling low. Bottom line, other than Larnach or Wallner, there just isn't anyone out there that we could trade that would have much value to anyone other than our more highly rated prospects and those are exactly the kind of people you don't trade for a team unlikely to have World Series aspirations.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

Here's what didn't make sense. 

Falvey mentioned loving their 40 man roster and finding it tough to move on from them. Gallo, Ortega and Sands have no value and would not be taking 40 man spots on most other teams. 

Brock Stewart having a setback and not adding to the bullpen. If Stewart was about to come back maybe it makes some sense, but Thielbar is turning 37 soon and has had injury troubles lately as well. If both of them cannot make a solid comeback the bullpen is done. How can they sit back and rely on that? Winder and Henriquez have been awful this year and they don't seem to have any interest in promoting Funderburk.

Not finding some sort of upgrade to the right handed hitting options. Unless Anthony Prato is coming up soon and they have full faith in his abilities to hit lefties then they will continue to be the worst team against LHH. They're throwing out lineups with Solano at 3, Farmer at cleanup, Castro at 5 and Vazquez at 7. What do they expect to happen?

And finally, letting Keuchel leave even though he was way better than anyone could have hoped. The INTL league is tough on pitchers. The league OPS is over .800 and Keuchel generated whiffs and weak contact. The Twins have 5 viable starting pitcher options with Keuchel gone. Ryan is struggling mightily, Ober is hitting his inning high soon, Maeda just came back from TJ and Gray hasn't passed 130 innings in 4-5 years. Varland wasn't good and no one wants to see Dobnak ever again. Winder and Sands have sat on their butts in the bullpen all year raking in cash while only being let in for blowouts. A 6 man rotation was worth a try. I hope Keuchel immediately succeeds somewhere so we can add his name to the list of Twins on other teams that immediately succeeded after leaving.

1.  Keuchel hasn't left yet.   

2. Who was available that they should have overpaid on and with what prospect?  Does any of those moves significantly move the needle?  

Posted

I don’t get it.

If you believe the club has a shot in the postseason, you try to put a thumb or two in a couple of leaking dikes.

If you don’t, you sell…at least some.

Doing absolutely nothing, is just conceding to the status quo.

For the record, I think they win the division with anything other than a big sell off. So, IMO, there was an opportunity to get a win/win with some selling.

Posted
12 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

1.  Keuchel hasn't left yet.   

2. Who was available that they should have overpaid on and with what prospect?  Does any of those moves significantly move the needle?  

By definition he hasn't but the Twins have basically made it clear he's not a fit somehow.

Most of the solid relief options that are impending free agents were given up for near nothing when it comes to prospects. A prospect in the 15-20 range or a couple beyond that easily could have gotten them Chapman, Brent Suter or Raley. 

The Twins pen is teetering on the edge of destruction. One significant injury and it's over for them. Is that not worth a prospect most of us have never heard of? Or a few million dollars at the start of the year, but I digress.

Posted

Wouldn't it make more sense to DFA Sands and keep Kuechel add him to 40 man for this season and ads him to bullpen or 6 man rotation or as opener? 

Posted
12 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

By definition he hasn't but the Twins have basically made it clear he's not a fit somehow.

Most of the solid relief options that are impending free agents were given up for near nothing when it comes to prospects. A prospect in the 15-20 range or a couple beyond that easily could have gotten them Chapman, Brent Suter or Raley. 

The Twins pen is teetering on the edge of destruction. One significant injury and it's over for them. Is that not worth a prospect most of us have never heard of? Or a few million dollars at the start of the year, but I digress.

Chapman, Suter or Rayley do not make this a WS competing team on their own.  A significant injury to Jax or Duran would hurt any chances.  Not sure where you are going with this.  We are actually getting an additional arm with Thielbar and may be able to eat up additional innings through starting or relief if we add Keuchel which I believe they will.   Chapman was basically traded for a higher velocity Varland prospect and someone like a Jose Rodriguez.  Suter was for someone like Floro with more years of control and then you have Raley who the Rays almost win any trade they do.   The best value would have been Suter and he would have moved the needle the least.  Chapman,  I don't know,  maybe decent but I still see varland as a back of the rotation starter.   

Posted

I know that I have read on this very TD board that people don't want the Twins to make a trade for the sake of making a trade, in fact, it was a fear voiced pretty loudly.  Now we have hand-wringing that the Twins didn't make enough moves (they made one - Lopez for Floro).  Sounds like we are definitely living up to being a typical online forum.

I would also have liked a trade for another bullpen arm and/or a RH bat, but sometimes things just don't line up, plus after giving up a lot last deadline, they were probably a little cautious about doing that a second time.  I am guessing that their were some attempts to make a trade but that ultimately the price to be paid was too high. . . like Larnach + for a mid-level reliever.  That seems too high for me.  They also probably (foolishly) are hoping that Kepler keeps hitting like he has for the last month (which has been very good).  It's certainly possible, but seems a little unlikely.  Correa/Buxton et al from the right side re-discovering how to hit would indeed take care of the offensive situation and despite what some think, their bullpen is a long ways from bad.  I know it is hard to trust the Twins' brain trust, but they do have a great deal more information than we do. 

I am hoping that they can find a way to give Keuchel a shot at the MLB team.  Sending someone down (or to the IL) and letting him get a few innings in the bullpen or with a spot start could be very enlightening (or disheartening) as to his potential moving forward.  Keuchel definitely knew how to pitch at a high MLB level at one point, which is probably more than a lot of the other potential bullpen arms, so he seems to be worth a shot.   

Now, let's go Twins!  There are ballgames to win!

Posted

This team is pretty much in No Man's Land, so not doing anything does make some sense.  Do you buy or sell?  Again, No Man's Land.

Now, that said, they lead a division.  It may be putrid, but they do actually lead a division.  Does it make sense to go nuts and make all sorts of deals when they've got so many holes?  Not really, but they could have filled a couple of them.  The end result would still be the same, an early playoff exit.  

Lastly, I'm pretty tired of this organization treading water.  They've essentially done that since the end of the Dome era.  They've never really bottomed out, yet not really peaking either.  Total System Failure wasn't a complete tear down, there was a young core coming up.  2019 was as close to a peak as we've seen in that timeframe.  The rest of that time has been largely maintaining the status quo, or treading water.  And nary a playoff game win, let alone a series, to show for it.

So, for this team, not doing anything at the trading deadline makes a lot of sense.  Largely because that's what they do.  Tread water.

Posted

Keuchel was working outside the zone, mostly low, with a 77 MPH change working off a 86 mph fastball/slider. You know what that looks like to MLB hitters and video guys? It looks like walks and opportunities. If you seem unconvinced go look at this work last August where he threw a 2.31 ERA out there in Round Rock before getting incinerated in the bigs to the tune of a 9+ ERA.

Posted
15 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

No trade was going to make this team better but trading Gray could have helped for the future and moving Kepler would have freed up space for the guys that need to play. Instead, we're playing a bunch of guys who aren't worth all that much. 11 players on the Twins have had 200+ PA this year, five of them are over 30 and none of them are Larnich or Wallner. Somehow we've managed to have a old, underachieving lineup while not letting two former top picks get enough at-bats.

Again, I agree with the premise that the Twins will win the central but, man, what a crappy product.

I think you missed the part of the post about Gray and Maeda's lack of value. Jose Salas is not going to be an impact bat anytime soon, and he (according to BTV) has more value than both of those guys. My point is that if we were to sell, we'd most likely be punting on the playoffs in 2023 while very marginally increasing our chances in 2026 or 2027. In 2023 Max Kepler is a much better player than Trevor Larnach, especially in the field. He does not hit for average and he can be prone to some really ugly at-bats, but he is great defensively and brings more than Gallo/MAT/Vazquez/Farmer at the plate. 

Posted

I'm baffled by the idea that you could trade Sonny Gray and simply plug Keuchel in as if there's not going to be a significant difference. Gray was an all-star this year and deserved the nod. Keuchel hasn't been an acceptable MLB pitcher since 2020. yes, he's put up relatively gaudy numbers in AAA, but there's definitely some smoke and mirrors involved there and pitches that can fool AAA kids will get you murdered in MLB.

I would have liked them to get a RHP for the bullpen, but I can't say i loved a lot of the options that were actually out there. A RH bat for the OF would have bene nice, but would have been more impactful month ago. If we'd outbid for Tommy Pham, we're still only talking about another 50-60 ABs against LHP for the rest of the season, right? There wasn't much on the position player market that impressed, at least not to fill what the Twins needed.

Honestly, I think the biggest failure by the Twins FO at the deadline was not admitting that the Gallo experiment has failed and finding a way to move on from him, even if it meant cutting him and not replacing him with a RH bat. Gallo had a great start, but hasn't been good since. he was dreadful in July and looks very much like 2022 Gallo, sadly. It's 3 bad months vs 1 good one. Accept the sunk cost and move on, even if Royce isn't ready to come back yet.

Posted

Standing pat was a mistake.  We did nothing to help our team this year and worse nothing to help our team next year.  We have an overabundance of LH hitters.  One of them being Wallner who needs to see playing time.  Not making room for him is a huge mistake.  Not trading Sonny Gray is also a mistake.  Yes we will probably get a first round comp pick but the Twins' window to compete is the next 4 years so chances are if the player we draft defy the odds and could contribute, our window will be closed or almost closed.  We could have traded Gray for someone to help us next year or the year after. 

 

Posted
6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

No, standing pat did not make sense. I didn't expect or even want huge additions but a capable RH bat and a capable RH reliever were eminently gettable. The front office didn't clear that relatively low bar.

Exactly.  These were easily attainable additions, yet we waited and waited until they were gone.  

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