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Posted
  1. Brooks Lee
  2. Walter Jenkins
  3. Emmanuel Rodriguez
  4. Matt Wallner
  5. Marco Raya
  6. David Festa
  7. Austin Martin
  8. Yasser Mercedes
  9. Tanner Schobel
  10. Connor Prielipp
  11. Charlee Soto
  12. Noah Miller
  13. Kala'i Rosario
  14. Jose Salas
  15. Jordan Balazovic
  16. Brent Headrick
  17. Matt Canterino
  18. Blayne Enlow
  19. Luke Keaschall
  20. Jose Rodriguez

Too bad Helman couldn't stay healthy. He was really making progress and he's the type of player the Twins need to add to their roster - speed, good glove and tough at bats. He's not listed but I'd have him at 19th.

I really like what I've seen from Schobel, especially his swing. Quick twitch with the potential for a little more power. I hope he can move up soon and play some SS at AA. 

I've seen SWR live a few times and I'm not optimistic. He looks stiffer every time I see him pitch. He's still young, so I hope he proves me wrong.

Maybe I'm too optimistic about Rosario. He's improved both his K% and BB% while maintaining his power. He's slowed down in July, so I'm interested to see how quickly he adjusts. 

Keirsey has proven he can handle AA. I'd like to see him at AAA soon. He's proven he can play CF and he's been on fire at the plate for the past two months. At 26 years old, it's time to find out if he has an MLB future. I'd have him at 20th if he was listed.

 

Posted
  1. Walter Jenkins
    Jenkins has louder tools than Lee. More power, better speed and I hope just as good a hit tool at least it is rated to turn out that way. If the speed holds he has true 5 tool potential.
  2. Brooks Lee
    Lee Is a rock solid player but needs more power or better batting average to be a difference maker IMO.
  3. Charlee Soto
    Already throws hard and has ace upside. Most exciting pitcher in the system if you ask me.
  4. Emmanuel Rodriguez
    He has been very Jekyll and Hyde this year and I have lost some faith but he is still young and the upside so high I am giving him the 4 spot.
  5. Marco Raya
    Going with Raya here but have to say I am getting worried about reliever risk. Still he bends pitches like Berrios so deserves a high spot.
  6. Matt Wallner
    There are a lot of underlying warts to his hitting profile, but he just keeps putting up good numbers. He is ready for his shot, and we'll find out if his weaknesses are too much to overcome at the MLB level or not.
  7. Tanner Schobel
    Schobel gets no love but he is outperforming Lee granted at a lower level. This high a ranking might be premature but no other player has dominated his level so thoroughly this year. He is leading his league in HR's and 2nd or third in OPS. He is performing better than a lot first round picks taken in his draft year. I thought about putting him as high as number 4 but the sample size is just too small.
  8. David Festa
    AA has been a challenge but he still gets the K's and the FIP and xFIP look solid. Feels like he is going to need another something to make it though.
  9. Brent Headrick
    You can easily argue I have him too high here. He has average stuff but finds a way to get guys out. I might too big a believer but this is my list so have him at 9
  10. Matt Canterino
    This also might be high for an elite pen arm but has the pitches and the velocity so I think he could be special out of the pen.
  11. Connor Prielipp
    Dropping Connor mainly because back to back TJ makes me wonder if his arm will ever hold up and I certainly no longer see him as a starter. He still has elite movement and could be a shut down pen arm so he slides to 11 for me.
  12. Noah Miller
    I love watching Miller play defense. Picks the ball, makes the throws, gets in good position he feels elite defensively to me. Even though he can control the strike zone and take walks the contact he makes is weak. I was going to drop him lower but he is having a hot July with a 1.000 OPS. Hitting homers and doubles so if the bat does come around he will be top 5 for me. If he continues to struggle at the plate I see him continuing to move down as he isn't getting any younger.
  13. Luke Keaschall
    Don't know much about him yet but he runs well and looks like he will have power and have a strong hit tool. Sounds like he might need to work on his defense but 13 feels like a good place to start for a guy with above average offensive tools.
  14. Yasser Mercedes
    Off to a poor start in the FCL but not surprising as most first year DSL players struggle that first year. Still has a ton of tools, but want to make sure that hit tool is for real before moving him higher up the list.
  15. Kala'i Rosario
    He probably should be higher on this list as he has been the most consistent player from the start of the season. Like Schobel he is top three for OPS in his league and just a homer or two behind Schobel and he is younger than Schobel. His defense has been a little rocky so I put him a little lower and he has been slumping some as the season wears on. He could and maybe should be top 10 but gonna wait and see.
  16. Jordan Balazovic
    He is still striking guys out at a good clip but the ERA and FIP are not great and it is hard to see him as an "elite" type arm. Maybe 5th starter? Maybe bullpen arm? The shine is off for me but the K rate lands him here for me.
  17. Andrew Cossetti
    Probably too high for Cossetti but I just like the guy and he dominated A ball. He is stocky with a good catchers build. Actually Camargo should be right there with him but I don't see him on the list. I will let them share this spot as I like both but Cossetti has well rounded peripheral numbers that make me think he could be a truly well rounded catcher. Taking a chance putting him this high but I like his numbers so far.
  18. Junior Severino
    He likes to hang around the .900 OPS mark. Hits the ball hard and likes to hit HR's but his BABIP and K rate worry me. Still he is a power bat with a decent average. I think he belongs here.
  19. Austin Martin
    Still has the skills just waiting for him to put it together. He has been a mess. I need to see more before I put him higher and he isn't really all that young anymore either.
  20. Jose Rodriguez
    Only big DSL player from last year holding his own in the FCL. The power is not there this year but at least he is hitting the ball. I still think he could be a special bat but will have to wait and see.

SWR doesn't make my list as I don't see elite arm and the fastball doesn't look good.

 

Enlow hasn't shown me quite enough to trust him yet at least in the top 20.

 

Salas has the worst OPS in the Midwest league there is no one lower. He can't be top 20 with a bat that bad.

 

I wanted to put Ross in but needed to see better plate discipline and higher batting average.

Posted
  1. Walker Jenkins
    Tier 1
  2. Brooks Lee
    Tier 1
  3. Emmanuel Rodriguez
    Tier 2- a little different from other tier 2 guys in that he's a higher variance kid, but I think the contact skills hold him back from ever reaching his ceiling.
  4. Marco Raya
    Tier 2
  5. Matt Canterino
    Tier 2- think he's a lights out reliever next year
  6. Connor Prielipp
    Tier 2- with an injury caveat
  7. Austin Martin
    Tier 2.5- still believe in the bat to ball skills
  8. Matt Wallner
    Tier 3
  9. Tanner Schobel
    Tier 3
  10. Luke Keaschall
    Tier 3
  11. Simeon Woods Richardson
    Tier 3
  12. David Festa
    Tier 3
  13. Yasser Mercedes
    Tier 3
  14. Jordan Balazovic
    Tier 3
  15. Brent Headrick
    Tier 3
  16. Yunior Severino
    Tier 3
  17. Noah Miller
    Tier 3
  18. Blayne Enlow
    Tier 3
  19. Charlee Soto
    Tier 3- tough to really rank as a HS arm with super high ceiling, super low floor so took the easy way out and put him in tier 3
  20. Brandon Winokur
    Tier 3- tough to really rank as he's super high ceiling, super low floor so took the easy way out and put him in tier 3

I'm a "tiers" guy. I put Jenkins first because I think he has more upside than Lee, but I wouldn't put up any sort of real fight if you put Lee first. But I think they're in the same tier while the rest of the guys are at least a full step below them. So I didn't put a whole lot of effort into the exact order within the tiers, but care more about the level of prospect I think they all are.

Tier 1- Multi-time All Star upside with strong enough chance of getting there that they'd be untouchable for me in trade.
Tier 2- MLB regular for a long time with maybe an All Star game or 2 mixed in on career years.
Tier 2.5- Martin stands alone in a weird category for me so he gets his own tier.
Tier 3- Guys I feel will make the majors and likely have a couple nice seasons, but aren't really core regulars on playoff teams. Middle reliever types. Utility guy types. Left handed masher with negative defensive value (that's Wallner in case you didn't know) types. Back end of rotation types. Or the 2 HS kids they just took early who just have such huge variance, and aren't on the Jenkins type level, so I copped out and threw them at the bottom.

Every prospect's floor is technically "never makes the majors." And they all have all star upsides if they hit their 100th percentile outcome. My ratings of them are based on their 50-75th percentile outcomes.

Example: ERod could become the best of them all if he figures out his K problem and hits his 100th percentile while the rest only reach their 75th percentile. Or he couldn't make it beyond AA if he only reaches his 25th percentile. I think his most likely outcome (50th percentile) is he makes the majors and has some really impressive hot streaks, but most likely is too streaky to really be a stud. I'm an optimist so I like to also take into account their most likely positive outcomes (up to the 75th percentile) as well so ERod gets tier 2 because he's got enough thump in that bat, and athleticism, that he could find his way into an All Star game or 2 if he sustains a hot streak long enough in the first half of a season. But I expect his valleys to be low enough, even at his 75th percentile, to truly keep him from that tier 1 star level.

Posted
  1. Walker Jenkins
    Walker Jenkins
  2. Brooks Lee
    Has lived up to every expectation except power production early on. I suspect the lack of impact is also behind his somewhat low BABIP. Still some All-star potential, but very high floor. Looks good on defense though range might be limited.
  3. Emmanuel Rodriguez
  4. Matt Wallner
    Has done a decent job of keeping Ks in check. Still a bit of a risky profile, but no indications that he can't hold his own in the majors.
  5. Marco Raya
    Still a relief risk given nagging injuries and limited workload.
  6. David Festa
    ERA looks much worse than peripherals. Still needs to fill out.
  7. Charlee Soto
    Physically reminds me of Jhoan Duran. Super high ceiling as a starter.
  8. Austin Martin
  9. Connor Prielipp
  10. Kala'i Rosario
    Great EVs in A-ball last year (90th percentile: 106.5 mph). Tapping into the power with solid improvements on plate discipline numbers this year. Not going to provide a ton of defensive value but still one of my favorite bats.
  11. Yasser Mercedes
  12. Yunior Severino
    I'm a sucker for a switch hitter with power from both sides. Doesn't really look great on defense so he probably ends up at 1B rather quickly.
  13. Luke Keaschall
    Somewhat similar to Schobel pick last year. Seems to have a bit better feel for contact and a bit better speed, which could give him value as an outfielder. Despite lack of raw power, has shown a very strong ability to get to power in games. Will have to see how that translates into professional ball, but seems like more than the sum of his parts.
  14. Brent Headrick
    Low 90s fastball, touching 95/96 (pretty solid velo from the left side). Mostly uses fastball/slider for outs, and relief might be most likely long-term role.
  15. Jordan Balazovic
    Making a bit of a comeback this year. Still sits mid 90s hitting 97. FB, slider/curve should work as a reliever, but changeup still looked very usable in AAA.
  16. Tanner Schobel
    Smallish guy who didn't hit the ball very hard in A-ball last year. Has had a power surge this year, a little reminiscent of Spencer Steer two years ago. Still profiles best as a utility player.
  17. Simeon Woods Richardson
    Still 22, I think he puts things together at some point. Somewhat unique, over-the-top delivery with decent extension, but the low 90s FB doesn't leave much room for error and probably doesn't help the secondaries play up.
  18. Cory Lewis
    Has featured knuckleball as a secondary to great results. Fastball only 89-92 range, but seems to have good enough secondary characteristics to still be quite effective. Slider has been an effective secondary for him as well, with changeup probably the 4th pitch right now. Knuckleball might give him an additional weapon against lefties, putting less pressure on the changeup.
  19. Brandon Winokur
    Will have to watch out for contact issues in pro-ball. Plenty of potential if they can keep his swing in check .
  20. Jose Rodriguez
    Still very young, but may not have much physical projection left. Holding his own in the FCL with enough contact but less power than he showed in the DSL.

HM (21-30): Enlow, Cossetti, Canterino, Matthews, De Andrade, Miller, Salas, Cardenas, Nowlin, Ortega, Helman

Might be low on Salas and Miller, but both need to prove themselves with some production.  I'd sort of like put Cossetti in the top 20, but given his age I'll hold off unless he starts dominating in A+.  Matthews sits in the mid 90s with his fastball and has excellent control but has gotten roughed up a bit in A+, which makes me wonder a bit on the secondary characteristics of his fastball and the level of his secondaries.  Still think he could go on a run soon.  Cardenas doesn't impact the ball hard, but has solid plate discipline and a good arm.  Nowlin still struggles with command but has 3 good pitches.  Ortega seems to have a pretty good knack for line drive contact and could be a utility type.

Posted
  1. Brooks Lee
  2. Walker Jenkins
  3. Emmanuel Rodriguez
  4. Marco Raya
  5. Tanner Schobel
  6. Matt Wallner
  7. Yasser Mercedes
  8. Brandon Winokur
  9. Charlee Soto
  10. CJ Culpepper
  11. Bryan Acuna
  12. Luke Keaschall
  13. Jose Rodriguez
  14. Cory Lewis
    Improved after moving up to CR.
  15. David Festa
    Numbers dipped in 22 with the move to CR. Dipped more dramatically with the move to Wichita.
  16. Yunior Severino
    Consistently Hits.
  17. Connor Prielipp
    Upside keeps him in top 20
  18. Noah Miller
    Elite defense at short puts less pressure on the bat as compared to Salas and De Andrade.
  19. Jordan Balazovic
  20. Brent Headrick
Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
  1. Brooks Lee
    having a nice showing in AA in first full season. Lots of doubles will turn into lots of HR's.
  2. Walker Jenkins
    Probably number 1 but hasn't played yet so I reserve the top spot till after he gets a chance to show his skills professionally.
  3. Marco Raya
    Pitching really well in High A and made a AA appearance. looks promising. Hopefully he can debut next season.
  4. Charlee Soto
    Exciting to see what he will do. Not sure where to rank him. Here looks good to me.
  5. David Festa
    Has a 5. era but lots of Ks hopefully he keeps improving.
  6. Matt Wallner
    Waiting for opportunity to show he can hit in the show..... again....
  7. Emmanuel Rodriguez
    Needs to show more soon as he is starting to fall down the list.
  8. Jordan Balazovic
    making a nice comeback from the free fall of last season.
  9. Simeon Woods Richardson
    Sliding. I hope he turns it around.
  10. Yasser Mercedes
    I don't know this guy. must be expensive international signing.
  11. Noah Miller
    All Star Defense and no offense. He is made for the current team.
  12. Brent Headrick
    fringe bullpen help but nice depth.
  13. Yunior Severino
    making a nice climb up the ladder. Was a free pickup from Atlanta since they had to let him go back into free agency as a penalty.
  14. Jose Rodriguez
    Still very young and just getting started. Has nice power for his age.
  15. Luke Keaschall
    Should be right there with Severino and Tanner Schobel.
  16. Blayne Enlow
    climbing back up the prospect list though a rough showing in first 3 AAA outings.
  17. Matt Canterino
    Injured and out for the season so in time out at the bottom of the top 20 in wait and see pattern.
  18. Austin Martin
    Coming back from injury so let's wait to see what he does to really evaluate him. He drops for not being around but is still top 20 in wait and see pattern.
  19. Connor Prielipp
    With the impending TJ surgery and the fact, he hasn't pitched much yet I am not sure where to put him. but he is a top prospect he can pitch.
  20. Kala'i Rosario
    This prospect is interchangeable with several others who are having similar seasons. Tanner Schobel, Ben Ross, Chris WIlliams, DaShawn Keirsey.....

There are lots of prospects deserving of top 20 towards the bottom of the list.  There are many injuries to players who are top 10 when healthy.  It becomes hard to pin some of these players who aren't playing or haven't played.  

Posted
  1. Walker Jenkins
    I put Jenkins at the top because his overall athletism gives him a higher floor than Lee
  2. Brooks Lee
    Lee has the highest floor in the system, but his ceiling seems to be limited by his avg athletic ability.
  3. Emmanuel Rodriguez
    Before the drafting of Jenkins, Rodriguez had the highest upside in the system. It has been nice to see his start to his better since a slow start to the season
  4. Marco Raya
    Consistently productive and pitching well in AA as a 20 year.
  5. Charlee Soto
    Good tools across the board with the attitude to take to coaching and mold into a solid all around pitcher.
  6. Connor Prielipp
    I get a Canterino vibe with Prielipp. If he were healthy he would be my first pitcher on this list but his lack of availability could put him in the out of sight out of mind category. Electric stuff when he is healthy.
  7. Matt Wallner
    I have always been down on Wallner as i think his K numbers will limit his productivity in the majors. That said, i have been encouraged by the adjustments he has made in St Paul since his time earlier in the season with the twins and seems to be putting some of those concerns to rest.
  8. Tanner Schobel
    Despite positional question marks, he has been arguably best hitter for a very good Cedar Rapids team. Walks an ok amount and does not strike out a lot.
  9. Simeon Woods Richardson
    I still believe in his upside but the results that he has produced this season moves him down the list a little for me.
  10. Brandon Winokur
    Big tools in his scouting reports. If he can fill out and produce consistent actions in the batters box and in the field, he could be much higher.
  11. Yasser Mercedes
    Big tools and I believe he will settle in for a solid first season stateside.
  12. David Festa
    Seems to be a try hard pitcher with OK tools but nothing to wow me into thinking he can be much more than a 3,4,5 starter.
  13. Kala'i Rosario
    I put Rosario higher on the list because it seems his in game power has taken off leading to a career best OPS while cutting down on K's and increasing his BB's. Also just turned 21 and may soon be heading to AA
  14. Jose Salas
    While he is still young, he is not putting together good numbers at A+ and for the first time in his career is striking out more than once per game, while his walks have also decreased.
  15. Austin Martin
    Anxious to see how he performs the rest of the year and I hope he gets back to focusing on being the contact hitter that got him drafted top 5.
  16. Bryan Acuna
    Overall has good tools and a family tradition that make me think he will figure out his slow start stateside.
  17. Luke Keaschall
    Solid overall toolbox as a college draftee who does not strike out much. If he can swing at good pitches while maintaining contact skills, he could move quickly through the system.
  18. Jordan Balazovic
    Being used exclusively as a reliever puts him as the lowest pitcher in my top 20 but he has proven to be very successful in the role.
  19. Noah Miller
    Seems to be a very similar prospect to De Andrade. They both are very consistent across the board with OK tools but nothing outside of their defense will wow you.
  20. Danny De Andrade
Posted
  1. Matt Wallner
    I lean towards those most ready for the big leagues - am I to assume Julien has passed the prospect mark? He would have been number 1.
  2. Walker Jenkins
    I can only go by the reports on TD - I do not know the new draftees otherwise, but the comments have really been strong.
  3. Brooks Lee
    Maybe I am reading things wrong in the reports, but he felt like he was ready for the majors last year and this year he feels like he is ready for AAA.
  4. Marco Raya
    I am beginning to believe in him and his potential.
  5. David Festa
    He seems like the pitcher most ready to make the next step.
  6. Jose Rodriguez
    Some hope here.
  7. Kala'i Rosario
    He is coming on. I like the way he is responding.
  8. Emmanuel Rodriguez
    A disappointed year from my perspective. Not as ready as I had hoped.
  9. Andrew Cossetti
    He is making all his ABs count.
  10. Yunior Severino
    Putting together a nice year.
  11. Tanner Schobel
    He has really come together this year and looks like he is ready to move up.
  12. CJ Culpepper
    Good stats and good writeups
  13. Blayne Enlow
    Maybe he is starting to become what the Twins hoped for at draft time.
  14. Cory Lewis
    I like what he done this year.
  15. Zebby Matthews
    I like the intelligence he has displayed
  16. Jair Camargo
    If not for Vazquez signing I would expect him to back up Jeffers next year.
  17. Jordan Balazovic
    I see him doing well in one inning outings, but I am disappointed that he has become that kind of pitcher.
  18. Chris Williams
    At 26, he is starting to look like a backup C in the majors
  19. Jorel Ortega
  20. Ricardo Olivar

I have our number one draft pick, but other draftees have to show something to make me put them on the list.  So I expect my list will clash with the rest and I am fine with that - I like a little controversy.

Posted
  1. Brooks Lee
  2. Walker Jenkins
  3. Marco Raya
    AA at 20, pushes him ahead of E Rod
  4. Emmanuel Rodriguez
    Just too many K's for me to put in the top 3.
  5. Matt Wallner
  6. Charlee Soto
  7. Brandon Winokur
  8. Tanner Schobel
  9. David Festa
  10. Cory Lewis
  11. CJ Culpepper
  12. Luke Keaschall
    RH Julien.
  13. Zebby Matthews
  14. Brent Headrick
    Probably a reliever but not certain yet.
  15. Jose Rodriguez
  16. Andrew Cossetti
  17. Yunior Severino
    Has played so well I had to get him in my top 20.
  18. Simeon Woods Richardson
    Starter? Reliever?
  19. Danny De Andrade
    Seems to be starting to put it together.
  20. Connor Prielipp
    2nd elbow surgery causes his spot to drop signifyingly.

I feel pretty good about 1-10. After that it seems like there's 15-20 players that either deserve a spot or are always injured and haven't had a real chance to play enough to have a strong opinion of. Likely relievers and older prospects I usually drop 10+ spots.

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