Has Derek Falvey Established His Pitching Pipeline?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins moved on from their former front office regime in an attempt to bring their baseball operations forward. Getting to a place that more closely replicates the game's current state, the Twins hired Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. The former came from Cleveland; his calling card was organizational pitching development. But has it worked?

 

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

In October 2016, the Minnesota Twins hired Derek Falvey as their executive vice president and chief baseball officer. He brought a substantial track record of success when looking at how the Guardians have churned out pitchers over the years, and the hope was that Minnesota could replicate that system. 

Now in season seven, it's worth wondering how well the belief in the process has paid dividends.

Looking at the draft first, the Twins have made just one first-round pick that was a pitcher during Falvey's tenure. Surprisingly, they took a high school arm in the form of Chase Petty. There is almost nothing more volatile than a prep arm, but Petty and his high-velocity fastball at 26th overall made sense as a reasonable gamble.

The most indicative of developmental results is how arms from the later round progress through the system. Perhaps nothing is more notable there than both Bailey Ober and Louie Varland. The former was a 12th-round pick during the 2017 draft, and he has elevated himself to the point of being a consistent rotation mainstay. He was left out of the Opening Day staff due to unprecedented depth, but he's pitched himself into ink.

Even further out than Ober, Varland was taken in the 15th round during the 2019 draft from Concordia-St. Paul, a Division II program. He immediately saw velocity jump up as he went to work with a pro team, and he quietly climbed the ranks. Moving into actual prospect status for the Twins and eventually cracking the top 10, Varland forced his way into the rotation. We have seen him struggle with home runs thus far, but getting that under control can help him to take a massive next step.

A bit further down the line, Minnesota can hang a hat on Randy Dobnak, who came out of nowhere to break through at the big league level. After an unfortunate injury, he hasn't seen sustained success, but earning a big payday and contributing at the highest level can be attributed to internal development.

On the relief side, we have seen stories like Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax succeed at a very high level. The former was out of baseball and came back to be among baseball's most dominant left-handed arms. Thielbar has been wildly successful for Minnesota and a mainstay in a bullpen that has constantly shuffled arms. Although this regime did not draft Jax, they had a hand in shaping his current position. Moving on as a starter, Jax has pushed his stuff into high-leverage spots and has shown an ability to set up one of the game's best closers in Jhoan Duran.

Only some prospects are a finished product too. While there are highly touted arms such as Connor Prielipp and Simeon Woods Richardson still waiting to put it all together on the farm, there are pitchers such as David Festa, Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, and C.J. Culpepper that are turning heads as they make their way through the system.

Developing a pipeline is about more than just big league production, too. As we saw with Petty, having the depth to move prospects is a must. Making big trades meant having arms like Cade Povich and Brusdar Graterol. Flipping assets to grab arms like Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez is less about the pitching development but adds to the overall depth.

Overall, the Twins have yet to truly develop an ace, but that's not necessarily what Cleveland did. Ryan could wind up being Minnesota's Shane Bieber, and they've stockpiled some arms that could produce dividends to the tune of Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and others. Cleveland's arms have come mainly into the system by fitting a mold. The organization takes big-bodied guys that can throw strikes. They then look to add velocity and help them grow. Corey Kluber was an example back in the day, and there have been many additions. 

The bar for what a pitching pipeline looks like is murky, but Minnesota being where they are now, is as good of a representation as we may see. The pipeline has been built through a combination of development and acquisition. Marrying those two together has created depth. The further this organization can get from needing to spend on big names or hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with Chris Archer or Dylan Bundy, the more self-sustaining it will be.

It hasn't been perfect by any means, and we're still hoping to see the trend continue, but for now, the Twins' pitching pipeline is starting to come into focus.

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[twinzcynic]

I'd say they have constructed the pipeline for sure. The uncanny ability to turn prospects with appearances on top 100 lists (Gonsalves, SWR, Balazovic, Romero, ....) into either relievers or bullpen arms is top tier.  Unfortunately it's the type of pipeline that leaks and contaminates the ground water.

[TwinsDr2021]

First I would say Ryan isn't and can't be Shane Bieber. Ryan is almost exactly 1 year younger than Bieber. Bieber has pitched 803 innings in his career and Ryan 267. His development is 3 years behind, not sure how he catches that.

As for a pipeline, I am going to say no they haven't developed a pipeline, to me a pipeline is a stream of starters coming out of the minors (traded for or drafted) and replacing the starters that have gotten hurt or been traded because they are getting near free agency. With that said they have developed Ober, Varland (in the minors) and should get credit for bringing in Ryan. Gray and Lopez were good gets but it took the prospects to bring them in, probably hurting their pipeline in the process.

For the pen they seem to be able to take minor league starters and turn them into viable bullpen pieces. (Duran, Jax, Winder) But I am not sure that is much different than what every team does. They have a decent job finding diamonds in the rough as well.

IMO a pipeline would be something like (brought up and started) Ober 21, Ryan 22, Varland 23, Festa 24 , SWR 24, Raya 25,

Trading Gray in 23, trading Ober 24, trading Ryan 25 and replenishing the farm along the way and taking he failed starters and putting them in the pen. .

 

[Karbo]

They seem to be on a good path with the pitching (at least starters) but they need to tweak their approach to hitting. They have built a team to "drive the ball" but have forgotten in order to drive the ball you first must hit the ball. There is nothing wrong with a few guys that can get on base and run so the guys can drive them in (if they hit the ball).

[Jocko87]

It a fun exercise to look at the pitchers in the Cleveland system that tormented us during their Falvey era. As Twins fans we saw them pull arm after arm out of the minors and the natural assumption was they were just nailing draft after draft. They weren't. Almost every frontline starter they had prior to Bieber and MacKenzie were traded for and developed. It's really stunning to go through the names.

Falvey has mentioned this in interviews as they are doing the same thing here. We are starting to see some of the fruits. It needs to keep going but is looking good. Twins fans have been conditioned over many years of draft and wait that draft equals homegrown. We need to adjust thinking on that, prospects move around all the time and homegrown should mean not a free agent signing.

Everytime this discussion comes up I think about what the Cardinals gave for Marcel Ozuna. Pitching prospects move all the time and that's Falveys wheelhouse.

[stringer bell]

Add in three pitchers currently on the major league active roster--Balazovic (drafted 2016), Headrick and Winder. Sands is yet another drafted and developed by the Twins (currently on IL). I think Headrick still has a chance to become a rotation piece, while the others look like bullpen guys, but if they are contributing, then fewer spaces need to be filled by free agents and waiver claims. 

[Guest]

Gee, I'm glad everything's okay now....

[TwinsDr2021]

35 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

It a fun exercise to look at the pitchers in the Cleveland system that tormented us during their Falvey era. As Twins fans we saw them pull arm after arm out of the minors and the natural assumption was they were just nailing draft after draft. They weren't. Almost every frontline starter they had prior to Bieber and MacKenzie were traded for and developed. It's really stunning to go through the names.

Falvey has mentioned this in interviews as they are doing the same thing here. We are starting to see some of the fruits. It needs to keep going but is looking good. Twins fans have been conditioned over many years of draft and wait that draft equals homegrown. We need to adjust thinking on that, prospects move around all the time and homegrown should mean not a free agent signing.

Everytime this discussion comes up I think about what the Cardinals gave for Marcel Ozuna. Pitching prospects move all the time and that's Falveys wheelhouse.

I don't believe the natural assumption was that Cleveland was just good a drafting pitchers. To me it seemed like they were amazing at letting other teams draft pitchers and were able to pick out (trade for) the ones they thought they could make good pitchers and good at drafting. They have been similar to the Twins in drafting college pitchers and having them debut at an older age which in the long runs saves a ton of money and frees it up for all spots, since you never have to pay real money for starters that way.

Plus they have hit on some young studs. (Bieber, McKenzie) and that currently seems to be the big difference.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

When I think of pipeline I think of starting pitching, with bullpen still important but more as a byproduct.

So you have guys like Graterol and Duran who got a lot of attention as starters, but looked more like future bullpen arms. 

I don’t know which pitchers currently in the Twins system are really making people excited as future starters besides Varland, but I’m sure there are some. Cory Lewis as mentioned in the article but still in A+ and a ways to go yet

Atlanta would be the new team to emulate as far as building a pipeline, Fried and Wright go on the IL and they don’t miss a beat. Atlanta also promotes their arms quickly, which the Twins are also doing, so we might see a guy like Lewis actually debut for a cup of coffee later next season if he continues to dominate.  

[jorgenswest]

My criteria for an established pipeline.

1) They no longer are filling the back end of the rotation with off season signings like Bailey, Bundy and Archer.

2) They no longer need to trade valuable resources like Arraez to fill out the rotation.

They are getting closer but not there yet.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

My criteria for an established pipeline.

1) They no longer are filling the back end of the rotation with off season signings like Bailey, Bundy and Archer.

2) They no longer need to trade valuable resources like Arraez to fill out the rotation.

They are getting closer but not there yet.

That is also my criteria. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

It a fun exercise to look at the pitchers in the Cleveland system that tormented us during their Falvey era. As Twins fans we saw them pull arm after arm out of the minors and the natural assumption was they were just nailing draft after draft. They weren't. Almost every frontline starter they had prior to Bieber and MacKenzie were traded for and developed. It's really stunning to go through the names.

Falvey has mentioned this in interviews as they are doing the same thing here. We are starting to see some of the fruits. It needs to keep going but is looking good. Twins fans have been conditioned over many years of draft and wait that draft equals homegrown. We need to adjust thinking on that, prospects move around all the time and homegrown should mean not a free agent signing.

Everytime this discussion comes up I think about what the Cardinals gave for Marcel Ozuna. Pitching prospects move all the time and that's Falveys wheelhouse.

Kluber / Carrasco / Bauer / Clevinger were all acquired as prospects.  They rolled Kluber / Carrasco and Clevinger when they had a year left for Rosario / Gimenez / Quantrill / Allen and Naylor.

Yes, Miami got Alcantara and Gallen in that trade for Uzuna.   The A's got Bassit and Semien for Samardzija.

Of course, the difference is that Cleveland never traded prospects for established pitching with the exception of Andrew Miller.  The way Cleveland did it is much more sustainable that the way the current Twin's pitching staff was built.  They have had a few low cost / high return acquisitions in Ryan / Duran / Thielbar / Odorizzi and Stewart.

[D.C Twins]

28 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

My criteria for an established pipeline.

1) They no longer are filling the back end of the rotation with off season signings like Bailey, Bundy and Archer.

2) They no longer need to trade valuable resources like Arraez to fill out the rotation.

They are getting closer but not there yet.

This, This, aaaaand THIS!

[Jocko87]

47 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't believe the natural assumption was that Cleveland was just good a drafting pitchers. To me it seemed like they were amazing at letting other teams draft pitchers and were able to pick out (trade for) the ones they thought they could make good pitchers and good at drafting. They have been similar to the Twins in drafting college pitchers and having them debut at an older age which in the long runs saves a ton of money and frees it up for all spots, since you never have to pay real money for starters that way.

Plus they have hit on some young studs. (Bieber, McKenzie) and that currently seems to be the big difference.

I've looked this a few times informally but just pulled a full list and categorized it.  Being generous with the Flavey years in Cle by including the 2007 intern years through 2016, only 13 of 30 pitchers acquired in that period with more than 100 ML innings were drafted or international free agents.  Of the group, only 245 of the 647 ML wins and 40% of the innings were from those "homegrown" players.  I had to filter by Major League service dates so there may still be some draftees coming.  They did very well in the 2015 and 2016 drafts with Bieber, Civale, Mackenzie but its more of the outlier than their norm.  If anything Falvey pulled them more towards the draft than they were previously.  I ran the filters on 2007-2016 ML debut and it came out with 31% of the innings.  

The Cleveland pitching pipeline was built on smart prospect trades, not the draft or international free agency.  It looks like a similar trend in Minnesota.  They have a pretty good ability to draft and develop hitters so don't be surprised to see more of your favorite young hitters going away.

[FlyingFinn]

38 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I don’t know which pitchers currently in the Twins system are really making people excited as future starters besides Varland, but I’m sure there are some. Cory Lewis as mentioned in the article but still in A+ and a ways to go yet

Blayne Enlow - Saints - appears fully recovered from his surgery this year

David Festa - Wind Surge - ERA isn't great but the stuff is and as posted in another thread many of his other #'s are really good (sometimes the bullpen lets your runners score and makes you look bad - with their record, I'm not sure Wichita's middle relievers are that good). And he is going to the future's game in July.

Marco Raya - Kernels - very good #'s and the Twins are bringing him along slowly

Connor Prielipp - Kernels - on rehab I believe and he may be like Enlow where it is two years after surgery when he starts pitching "normal" again.

And for the bullpen, Regi Grace has really pitched well this year, currently with the Wind Surge.

[Twodogs]

33 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

My criteria for an established pipeline.

1) They no longer are filling the back end of the rotation with off season signings like Bailey, Bundy and Archer.

2) They no longer need to trade valuable resources like Arraez to fill out the rotation.

They are getting closer but not there yet.

The way we are really going to see it is when they lose Gray, Mahle, and Maeda at the end of the season and what they come back with?  Do they trade Royce Lewis to get another Pablo Lopez type to add to the rotation or do they bring some guys up from the system and they don't miss a beat?  That will determine it.  Now it looks as though Varland might be ok but they will need to have another couple of dudes step up to be the 5th and 6th guys behind Ryan, Lopez, and Ober.  Hopefully SWR? Hedrick? we will see.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I've looked this a few times informally but just pulled a full list and categorized it.  Being generous with the Flavey years in Cle by including the 2007 intern years through 2016, only 13 of 30 pitchers acquired in that period with more than 100 ML innings were drafted or international free agents.  Of the group, only 245 of the 647 ML wins and 40% of the innings were from those "homegrown" players.  I had to filter by Major League service dates so there may still be some draftees coming.  They did very well in the 2015 and 2016 drafts with Bieber, Civale, Mackenzie but its more of the outlier than their norm.  If anything Falvey pulled them more towards the draft than they were previously.  I ran the filters on 2007-2016 ML debut and it came out with 31% of the innings.  

The Cleveland pitching pipeline was built on smart prospect trades, not the draft or international free agency.  It looks like a similar trend in Minnesota.  They have a pretty good ability to draft and develop hitters so don't be surprised to see more of your favorite young hitters going away.

I might disagree with the develop good hitters, Lewis, Larnach, Julien, Wallner, Celestino and Jeffers are the only guys on the 40 man they have drafted or acquired as minor league players

And as of now, right now, Lewis looks good but as 121 MLB at bats, Julien 111 at bats, Larnach, Wallner an Celestino are in the minors, and it looks like Jeffers could be something. That's it, not sure I would say the have a pretty good ability to draft and develop hitters.

[Jocko87]

24 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Kluber / Carrasco / Bauer / Clevinger were all acquired as prospects.  They rolled Kluber / Carrasco and Clevinger when they had a year left for Rosario / Gimenez / Quantrill / Allen and Naylor.

Yes, Miami got Alcantara and Gallen in that trade for Uzuna.   The A's got Bassit and Semien for Samardzija.

Of course, the difference is that Cleveland never traded prospects for established pitching with the exception of Andrew Miller.  The way Cleveland did it is much more sustainable that the way the current Twin's pitching staff was built.  They have had a few low cost / high return acquisitions in Ryan / Duran / Thielbar / Odorizzi and Stewart.

Bauer was 21, Carasco 22 and Kluber and Clevanger were 24 when they were acquired.  Names like Jake Westbrook, Shin Sue Choo and Cliff Lee were going the other way so its not like they didn't pay heavily.  It just feels like the Twins are paying more with the error of recency. 

Forgot to attach the file with my other post, here is the data.

Falvey Cle.xlsx

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Bauer was 21, Carasco 22 and Kluber and Clevanger were 24 when they were acquired.  Names like Jake Westbrook, Shin Sue Choo and Cliff Lee were going the other way so its not like they didn't pay heavily.  It just feels like the Twins are paying more with the error of recency. 

Forgot to attach the file with my other post, here is the data.

Falvey Cle.xlsx

I think you two are on the same page, in disputing the notion that Cleveland had much of a pitching pipeline. They typically got their pitchers by trading for near-MLB ready young arms, or still very controllable MLB arms. Which obviously is an easier point to identify talent than it is in the draft or trading for A ball players. Same thing the Twins have been doing, with the level of control being the only difference.

It's pretty much been the same plan, except with the Twins, they've been willing spend more in dollars and player equity. And that's likely more a product of Cleveland being a more fiscally conservative team.

[Jocko87]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I might disagree with the develop good hitters, Lewis, Larnach, Julien, Wallner, Celestino and Jeffers are the only guys on the 40 man they have drafted or acquired as minor league players

And as of now, right now, Lewis looks good but as 121 MLB at bats, Julien 111 at bats, Larnach, Wallner an Celestino are in the minors, and it looks like Jeffers could be something. That's it, not sure I would say the have a pretty good ability to draft and develop hitters.

Yeah, probably better stated as good hitting prospects that are nice trade chips.  Steer, CES, Arraez, Rooker, Garver, Wade etc count too.  Its a lot of hitters who can play in the big leagues coming through the system. 

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

My criteria for an established pipeline.

1) They no longer are filling the back end of the rotation with off season signings like Bailey, Bundy and Archer.

2) They no longer need to trade valuable resources like Arraez to fill out the rotation.

They are getting closer but not there yet.

9 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

The way we are really going to see it is when they lose Gray, Mahle, and Maeda at the end of the season and what they come back with?  Do they trade Royce Lewis to get another Pablo Lopez type to add to the rotation or do they bring some guys up from the system and they don't miss a beat?  That will determine it.  Now it looks as though Varland might be ok but they will need to have another couple of dudes step up to be the 5th and 6th guys behind Ryan, Lopez, and Ober.  Hopefully SWR? Hedrick? we will see.

This is where I'm at. Have the established it? No. Are they close? Maybe.

This deadline, and next offseason, will speak volumes as to where they're at. If I'm the Pohlads, I tell them they're not allowed to make any big trades this deadline. You've been here long enough, and it's time to sink or swim with your system. If you can't swim with your guys this year you aren't the ones to patch the holes in the offseason. It's time to open the valve, and see what comes out of the pipeline.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Yeah, probably better stated as good hitting prospects that are nice trade chips.  Steer, CES, Arraez, Rooker, Garver, Wade etc count too.  Its a lot of hitters who can play in the big leagues coming through the system. 

Only Steer and CES are originally from this FO.

[TwinsDr2021]

31 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Blayne Enlow - Saints - appears fully recovered from his surgery this year

David Festa - Wind Surge - ERA isn't great but the stuff is and as posted in another thread many of his other #'s are really good (sometimes the bullpen lets your runners score and makes you look bad - with their record, I'm not sure Wichita's middle relievers are that good). And he is going to the future's game in July.

Marco Raya - Kernels - very good #'s and the Twins are bringing him along slowly

Connor Prielipp - Kernels - on rehab I believe and he may be like Enlow where it is two years after surgery when he starts pitching "normal" again.

And for the bullpen, Regi Grace has really pitched well this year, currently with the Wind Surge.

You could make a list like this every year going back X amount of years. I assume the question was which pitcher(s) in the minors are blowing people away and we fans just can't wait for them to get here and are willing to push them here now. and the pitchers in your list aren't the answer to that question.

Nothing against Festa or Raya, but my hope for them this year was to be so good that they would push if not pass this list of pitchers SWR/Headrick/Winder/Sands/Balazovic/ Henriquez/Enlow. I don't think that has happened so the list I made is basically the next wave.  Lets be honest the pitching prospects list is pretty bare. (Not that a few couldn't step it up and be good Lewis for example)

[Jocko87]

6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Only Steer and CES are originally from this FO.

Rooker as well but the point is more that this FO had them for several years and parted with them.  What they did with each for development is a much finer hair than I'm trying to split. 

[DJL44]

I think the answer is no and it isn't surprising. The roster is 50% pitchers. They've been drafting roughly 50% pitchers but that isn't enough because pitchers get hurt and flame out at a much higher rate than position players. They've acquired almost no pitching through international free agency which puts them well behind league average. That leaves free agency and trading veteran players as the only way to acquire the young pitching talent they need. They have never been comfortable paying for free agent pitchers (I don't blame them) and they've been in contention often enough lately to hold onto their veteran players.

[Jocko87]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They've acquired almost no pitching through international free agency which puts them well behind league average.

This is certainly a gap they need to close while they still can.  For a relatively small cost they can sign some higher level prospects than the draft.  This is one of those areas where a few hundred thousand dollars can go a long way.  Get college hitters in the draft and focus more on signing international pitching prospects. 

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Bauer was 21, Carasco 22 and Kluber and Clevanger were 24 when they were acquired.  Names like Jake Westbrook, Shin Sue Choo and Cliff Lee were going the other way so its not like they didn't pay heavily.  It just feels like the Twins are paying more with the error of recency. 

Forgot to attach the file with my other post, here is the data.

Falvey Cle.xlsxUnavailable

Cleveland has done a great job of getting major league ready or near ready talent in trades.  They were not trading for 19 year old A ballers.  For example, Rosario and Gimenez for Lindor.  Clause for Kluber.  Naylor and Quantrill for Clevinger, etc.  They did the same thing in acquiring the pitchers you mentioned.  I don’t see trading 2 months of Chin So Chin as a big price for 6 years of Trevor Bauer, especially given Cleveland won 68 games that year.  Same thing with 2 months of Cliff Lee for Carlos Carrasco.  Trades where you get 5-7 years of a Carrasco or Joe Ryan or Clause or Duran for 2 months of a player are a giant win for the team acquiring those prospects.

[mikelink45]

My inclination is to say no. Right now. I don't see winder, Balazovic or sands and headrick as successful developments. They are arms that are useful but a pipeline means quality and right now I don't see a lineup of quality. Ober is good but not top of rotation and varland is still a? If Maeda fails to sustain his comeback and Varland is still struggling at AAA. Who is the next one for the rotation?  

Will we retain gray?  Ryan is really good but he is not young like a major prospect should be. Lopez has looked like umber three at pitcher since we extended him.  

The prospects that we are listing are still always away from Minneapolis. If we want to look at quality then maybe Petty, Cade Povich,,, represent the upside of our drafting. 

There are Minnesota arms out there on other people's rosters. So the question is it a pipeline that is working for the twins or is it just trade capital?

 

[gunnarthor]

I don't think anyone in good faith can say that we have an established pitching pipeline. It's so barren that we've had to trade for Gray, Lopez, Mahle, and Gray (among others), which added salary and took away talent. The reason to have a pipeline is so that very thing doesn't happen.

[KirbyDome89]

Louie Varland and his 5.30 FIP is "indicative of pipeline success?" 

Randy Dobnak?

Caleb Thielbar?

Wtf is this nonsense? Seriously....