The Twins Have a Type When it Comes to Trades

[Ted Schwerzler]

As the trade deadline gets closer, and knowing the Minnesota Twins could use help in 2023, it makes sense to look back at how this front office has made moves. They seem to have a pattern when it comes to extracting value, and it hasn’t always gone the right way for them. What can we learn for the moves yet to come?

 

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Whether evaluating offseason or deadline deals, the Twins have made a handful of aggressive moves over the past couple of years. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have sought to construct a roster capable of sustained winning, and they have done so in looking to provide depth across all position groups.

Not knowing exactly what the Twins targets will be, or where, we can gain an understanding of what this regime has previously tried to do when acquiring value.

The Mahle Move
Last season, the Twins attempted to sustain their division lead by acquiring a starting pitcher. Rather than going for Frankie Montas, who was the top arm with the big name, they looked at the Reds Tyler Mahle. He put up very good underlying numbers in 2021 and a tweak or two could be argued to push him toward being an ace.

In parting with both Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Minnesota saw two prospects that were really bat-only players. Steer has some positional flexibility, but shouldn't be expected to win any Gold Gloves. Encarnacion-Strand was definitely not going to defend at all, and that left both behind at least a few players in the pecking order. Two prospect bats for a starting arm with upside is where this one likely fell.

The Paddack Acquisition
Although it was moving their closer Taylor Rogers for a San Diego reliever in Emilio Pagan, the Opening Day trade was absolutely about Chris Paddack. Minnesota’s front office was clearly unsure of Rogers’ health coming off an injury, and heading into free agency, he wasn’t likely going to be back.

Pagan gave the Twins an opportunity for an immediate relief replacement, but Paddack and his team control were too much to pass up. He could be had for a reliever because the health and durability concerns are real, but that was baked into the cost. Paddack looked strong for Minnesota before blowing out last season, but he’ll get an opportunity to contribute again as he works his way back. Capitalizing on a leverage reliever for a shot at a proven arm (when healthy) seems to be this thought process.

Working Into Maeda
When the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers were attempting to swap pieces for Mookie Betts, Minnesota did well to get involved. Needing serious pitching help at the time, Kenta Maeda was an arm that had shown good run in California. He’d been bumped from the rotation at times, but also flashed much of the promise that made him a heralded free agent acquisition.

Despite not having much firepower in relief, the Twins gave away Brusdar Graterol. Though he could pump triple-digits and looked like a future closer, finding an opportunity to get a high quality starter out of him was definitely a win. Maeda’s contract was written to plan for injury, ultimately happening for the Twins, but not before some very strong work after coming to Minnesota. Swapping a reliever for a starter with upside again was the gamble being taken.

Lopez For Closer
Last season, when the Twins needed help at the deadline, they looked at the bullpen as an area to upgrade. Jorge Lopez was an All-Star for the Baltimore Orioles, and despite a career of futility as a starter, 48 innings as a reliever made him coveted.

The Twins wanted Lopez so badly they parted with a prominent pitching prospect in Cade Povich, and also parted with Yennier Cano. The former was the prize of this package while the latter was a likely DFA candidate for Minnesota during the offseason. Relief pitching can be fickle and nothing highlights that more than the directions Lopez and Cano have gone since. Minnesota made this move at the height of a reliever’s value and did so, giving up a prospect that could burn them later.

Starting With Lopez
Arguably the most contentious trade the Twins have made in recent years involved Luis Arraez. The Miami Marlins had a few coveted pitchers and while the Twins would've liked to grab Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, they did well to target Pablo Lopez. Coming off of three strong years posting a 3.52 ERA, Lopez has underlying numbers that suggest he can be a quality arm with the ability to pitch up in the rotation. Minnesota needing pitching and to create depth, he was acquired and then extended to a long term deal.

It was never going to be easy moving on from Arraez. He was absolutely a fan favorite and is elite when it comes to arguably the most important skill in the game, hitting. Now batting .400 with Miami, there was never a doubt that he would be an asset with the bat. Minnesota didn't believe in his knees long term, and as a poor defender, it was clear that was a price they felt comfortable paying to get a good pitcher. Again, a difficult pill to swallow, a relatively one-dimensional hitter was the guy they felt ok with using to acquire strong pitching.

 

For the most part we can see that this front office has looked for unique ways to generate additional value. Whether that be gambling on injury as was the case with Maeda and Paddack, or playing for upside with blocked prospects as they did with Mahle. The outlier seems to be a true go-for-it type or immediate move that Lopez could be defined as, and that’s an outcome they’ll need to avoid in the future. If there's a win for both sides, the most straightforward move to pin that on would have been the Marlins trade.

How the Twins navigate this trade deadline remains to be seen, but the pattern is an established one. Clearly they have a level of risk tolerance that trends towards them seeking future value with some current question. They have often avoided reactionary moves as a whole. That plan is an understandable one, but they need it to bear more fruit than they have seen of late.

View full article

[John Belinski]

http://It appears the Twins like to trade for pitchers that have history of injury or have injury since at least 3 starting pitchers have missed part or all of a season.

[HokieRif]

The way we're playing we are going to be sellers by the end of July.  The problem, IMO, is that we dont have many significant pieces that anyone is likely to want.  In the last week I think Rocco and Gray cut the line and made Sonny the top contender to find a new home for someone in need of mid-back of rotation starter to bolster their hopes.  Maybe Correa if someone desperately needs to exchange run generation for stellar defense.  In return, we'll get prospects which we'll need, because this could be our starting defense next year without help:

Lewis, SS
Kirilloff, 1B
Miranda, 3B
Polanco, 2B
Wallner, OF
Larnach, OF
Garlick, OF
Jeffers, C

[1991]

27 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

The way we're playing we are going to be sellers by the end of July.  The problem, IMO, is that we dont have many significant pieces that anyone is likely to want.  In the last week I think Rocco and Gray cut the line and made Sonny the top contender to find a new home for someone in need of mid-back of rotation starter to bolster their hopes.  Maybe Correa if someone desperately needs to exchange run generation for stellar defense.  In return, we'll get prospects which we'll need, because this could be our starting defense next year without help:

Lewis, SS
Kirilloff, 1B
Miranda, 3B
Polanco, 2B
Wallner, OF
Larnach, OF
Garlick, OF
Jeffers, C

I would be a seller.  The Correa contract is going to be an albatross.  I'd sell Buxton too.  I'd sell just about anyone on the pitching staff.

[LastOnePicked]

Odd that a FO that is otherwise fairly conservative is so willing to gamble on players with questionable track records and unclear health. None of these have panned out - might be wiser to avoid these trades and signings. An untested healthy prospect probably has more value to the team than another veteran performance question mark.

 

[cjvirnig]

Let's not lose sight of the fact that Derek Falvey was hired specifically because it was believed he could establish the pitching pipeline that had long eluded the Twins organization. He has not succeeded in this endeavor. As a consequence of this failure, several trades of top prospects were consummated in an effort to acquire the pitching help that was needed. For me, THIS is the Original Sin of the current regime, superseding the handful of bad trades that have occurred. If Falvey had been more successful at drafting and developing pitching, they never would've needed to trade Luis Arraez or LaMonte Wade Jr or Spencer Steer.  

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, HokieRif said:

The way we're playing we are going to be sellers by the end of July.  The problem, IMO, is that we dont have many significant pieces that anyone is likely to want.  In the last week I think Rocco and Gray cut the line and made Sonny the top contender to find a new home for someone in need of mid-back of rotation starter to bolster their hopes.  Maybe Correa if someone desperately needs to exchange run generation for stellar defense.  In return, we'll get prospects which we'll need, because this could be our starting defense next year without help:

Lewis, SS
Kirilloff, 1B
Miranda, 3B
Polanco, 2B
Wallner, OF
Larnach, OF
Garlick, OF
Jeffers, C

Correa has a full no-trade clause. 

[roger]

YOu didn't mention the trade with the Giants a couple years ago for the reliever who's name I don't remember.  Doubt the Twins remember either.  Did he actually pitch for them?  Or did he go straight to the DL without crossing GO?  

Looking back that's six trades, including the Giants deal.  Did they win any?  Doesn't look like it to me, although some might say the Maeda deal has been ok.  But what is worse, several of the biggest names acquired went straight to the IL.  

[gman]

Unfortunately right now we have 2 boat anchors in the middle of the lineup. Maybe the real problem is the lineup is made more on how much someone is paid rather than what they are doing. Correa and Buxton are not going anywhere and no one would take them in a trade anyway. If they were playing healthy and hitting, we wouldn't be trading them to begin with. In the future (I hope) we may have better hitters available and we can move them down lower in the lineup. They'll be here until they retire.

[IndianaTwin]

@Ted Schwerzler, how did you decide which trades to include? What about...

• Sisk and Cruz for MAT
• a half-season of Escobar for a package including Duran
• a half-season of Nelly and a body for six (we hope) seasons of Ryan and a body, etc.
• Also, Salas as a part of the Lopez/Arraez trade...

This seems like a bit of picking and choosing.

[rv78]

Why do they need help? Look at who they brought in or back this off-season. Correa - a highly paid, high defensive talent that is an average hitter when he's at his best. Gallo - another overpaid defensive type player that is an all or nothing HR/K hitter. Taylor - a superior defensive outfielder to cover for the lack of Buxtons ability to stay on the field, when he hits it is considered a bonus because no one expects him to do so. Lopez - a slightly above average pitcher exchanged for a batting champion in his prime that was a fan favorite. Who else did they "bank" on? Kepler - who hasn't hit in 3 years, oh yeah, they eliminated the shift so now he can. Buxton - who's fulltime move to DH will keep him in the lineup, even though last year he became the 2nd coming of Miguel Sano and still can't stay healthy and probably never will. When over half of your lineup is defensive first type players, offense is ignored and you trade away your best bat, you create an even bigger problem. Note to Falvine: you have to score runs to win. Add in the fact you sign, keep and extend a Manager that uses paper instead of his eyes and his brain to manage and the place this organization really needs help at is in the FO.

[Ted Schwerzler]

4 hours ago, John Belinski said:

http://It appears the Twins like to trade for pitchers that have history of injury or have injury since at least 3 starting pitchers have missed part or all of a season.

I mean, it's also why they haven't parted out their top prospects in trades.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

@Ted Schwerzler, how did you decide which trades to include? What about...

• Sisk and Cruz for MAT
• a half-season of Escobar for a package including Duran
• a half-season of Nelly and a body for six (we hope) seasons of Ryan and a body, etc.
• Also, Salas as a part of the Lopez/Arraez trade...

This seems like a bit of picking and choosing.

I went with the biggest ones that have been more recent. You aren't wrong in that the first three unequivocally were good moves by this front office. The point wasn't to highlight bad trades, but rather suggest they have shown a willingness to gamble on upside, and that the Jorge Lopez was the lone instance that they deviated from it.

[Aggies7]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Why do they need help? Look at who they brought in or back this off-season. Correa - a highly paid, high defensive talent that is an average hitter when he's at his best. Gallo - another overpaid defensive type player that is an all or nothing HR/K hitter. Taylor - a superior defensive outfielder to cover for the lack of Buxtons ability to stay on the field, when he hits it is considered a bonus because no one expects him to do so. Lopez - a slightly above average pitcher exchanged for a batting champion in his prime that was a fan favorite. Who else did they "bank" on? Kepler - who hasn't hit in 3 years, oh yeah, they eliminated the shift so now he can. Buxton - who's fulltime move to DH will keep him in the lineup, even though last year he became the 2nd coming of Miguel Sano and still can't stay healthy and probably never will. When over half of your lineup is defensive first type players, offense is ignored and you trade away your best bat, you create an even bigger problem. Note to Falvine: you have to score runs to win. Add in the fact you sign, keep and extend a Manager that uses paper instead of his eyes and his brain to manage and the place this organization really needs help at is in the FO.

This FO has handed out premature extensions like Oprah handed out cars 

[mikelink45]

Read Reusse. We have consistently out smarted ourselves and have a terrible trade record. 

[Guest]

I'll pick and choose.  I see a lineup with Gallo instead of Arraez, 2b with Julien instead of either Polanco or Arraez, the RF is below the Mendoza line, the CF was run out of KC, two very expensive contracts in Correa and Buxton who combined hit .400 (i.e., each hitting ~.200) with one just deciding he needs a little work with the VELO, and a team of hitters that's leading MLB in SO and there's no other team in shouting distance.  And then we can start talking about our monopoly on SP who have appointments with orthopedic surgeons, and our unsurpassed record in trading for RP that blow save opportunities.  I'd say the FO (of which I generally approve because they're an improvement from Ryan) isn't hitting their weight yet.

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Also, Salas as a part of the Lopez/Arraez trade...

I’ll bet you a nickel, respectfully, he never sees the majors. It’s the third player, whose name I can’t recall, who is the true wild card.  

[weitz41]

3 hours ago, cjvirnig said:

Let's not lose sight of the fact that Derek Falvey was hired specifically because it was believed he could establish the pitching pipeline that had long eluded the Twins organization. He has not succeeded in this endeavor. As a consequence of this failure, several trades of top prospects were consummated in an effort to acquire the pitching help that was needed. For me, THIS is the Original Sin of the current regime, superseding the handful of bad trades that have occurred. If Falvey had been more successful at drafting and developing pitching, they never would've needed to trade Luis Arraez or LaMonte Wade Jr or Spencer Steer.  

Wait a second here..If Ryan was a great starter, why would Tampa have traded him? Duran? Jax? Ober, Varland, Jeez there's a few more BP and up and coming arms. Pitchers aren't the problem right now it's the three true outcomes offense. Cleveland has as many or more pitcher successes stories from trades as they do from drafting..

[weitz41]

Also, I'd like to thank Ted for jumping into this trade debacle...Even posting neutral (as I think you did) you're going to take all kinds of heat. Some trades go your team's way some do not. Get over it. MAYBE (and that's probably being generous) 50% of all deadline trades work out for the contending team. I want this team to try and make the payoffs EVERY year. The cost of doing that is likely NOT guys who likely wash out. This team has traded to tried and make the payoffs 3 or 4 of the last 5 seasons. That's going to hurt. I don't care much for this FO or manager, but I do believe that they are trying to win every day.

[Linus]

4 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Correa has a full no-trade clause. 

As does Buxton. I wish posters would stop with this nonsense. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’ll bet you a nickel, respectfully, he never sees the majors. It’s the third player, whose name I can’t recall, who is the true wild card.  

I don't follow the minors that closely -- just remembered that Salas was somewhere on the TD rankings (12, as it turns out). Byron Chourio is the other. Mainly just noting that it wasn't a one-for-one. 

 

(Also, have you been hanging out with my dad? He was often offering to bet a nickel as well. Haven't heard that phrase for a while. Timely, coming two days after Father's Day.) 

[Aerodeliria]

Who would a trade benefit? Arraez, Raley, Rooker, Badoo, Wade (who am I missing?)...when they were here they underperformed...when they were traded, they started hitting significantly better. Outside of Arraez, a popular opinion was that most of these guys would just fade away into obscurity. It is sad to ask, but why is that?

In other words, if we get someone and stick them into this system, will they let us down? (Correa swears that Popkins is the greatest ever. He is having his worst season in recent history. Can we trust his assessment?)

PS-It is very tough on pitchers to not get some run support. Each inning the Twins don't score, that puts greater pressure on them to keep the other team off of the scoreboard; on defense, extending innings with errors or blunders makes it even tougher.

[TwinsDr2021]

10 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

Who would a trade benefit? Arraez, Raley, Rooker, Badoo, Wade (who am I missing?)...when they were here they underperformed...when they were traded, they started hitting significantly better. Outside of Arraez, a popular opinion was that most of these guys would just fade away into obscurity. It is sad to ask, but why is that?

In other words, if we get someone and stick them into this system, will they let us down? (Correa swears that Popkins is the greatest ever. He is having his worst season in recent history. Can we trust his assessment?)

PS-It is very tough on pitchers to not get some run support. Each inning the Twins don't score, that puts greater pressure on them to keep the other team off of the scoreboard; on defense, extending innings with errors or blunders makes it even tougher.

I am all for picking apart this FO they deserve it, but Badoo was taken in the rule 5 draft, besides a fairly decent rookie year, has done NOTHING that us fans should be upset about losing him. Rooker, was traded then cut by two teams and had really good April and since has been brutal, again no fan should be upset he isn't a Twin. Raley is three years removed from being a Twins and up until this has been a minor league player, again no fan should be upset he is gone. I could give you Wade maybe, but going into this year he had been injured and in his best year he was only 2.1.

Having this 4 guys taking up 40 man spots for the last years wouldn't have helped much of any the last two years, and in reality probably not much this year with the exception of Wade.

[roger]

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Read Reusse. We have consistently out smarted ourselves and have a terrible trade record. 

Was going to mention this mike.  It is written as only Reusse does, great read.

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

Who would a trade benefit? Arraez, Raley, Rooker, Badoo, Wade (who am I missing?)...when they were here they underperformed...when they were traded, they started hitting significantly better. Outside of Arraez, a popular opinion was that most of these guys would just fade away into obscurity. It is sad to ask, but why is that?

In other words, if we get someone and stick them into this system, will they let us down? (Correa swears that Popkins is the greatest ever. He is having his worst season in recent history. Can we trust his assessment?)

PS-It is very tough on pitchers to not get some run support. Each inning the Twins don't score, that puts greater pressure on them to keep the other team off of the scoreboard; on defense, extending innings with errors or blunders makes it even tougher.

I almost forgot about Raley. From out of nowhere, he's become an important piece of the Tampa Bay offense this season. 

[mikelink45]

13 hours ago, Linus said:

As does Buxton. I wish posters would stop with this nonsense. 

We have seen lots of no trade clauses that simply mean a little extra bonus when they get traded. 

[Doctor Wu]

59 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I am all for picking apart this FO they deserve it, but Badoo was taken in the rule 5 draft, besides a fairly decent rookie year, has done NOTHING that us fans should be upset about losing him. Rooker, was traded then cut by two teams and had really good April and since has been brutal, again no fan should be upset he isn't a Twin. Raley is three years removed from being a Twins and up until this has been a minor league player, again no fan should be upset he is gone. I could give you Wade maybe, but going into this year he had been injured and in his best year he was only 2.1.

Having this 4 guys taking up 40 man spots for the last years wouldn't have helped much of any the last two years, and in reality probably not much this year with the exception of Wade.

Baddoo has looked better this season after getting called up again by Detroit. But he hasn't played in about a week after going on the 10-day IL. 

[umterp23]

Badoo caught lighting in a bottle his rookie season as there wasn't a good book on him for opposing pitchers.  Now we see the real Badoo since he has generated a large enough sampling on how to attack him.  We really didn't lose on not protecting him.  

[Blyleven2011]

16 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

I'll pick and choose.  I see a lineup with Gallo instead of Arraez, 2b with Julien instead of either Polanco or Arraez, the RF is below the Mendoza line, the CF was run out of KC, two very expensive contracts in Correa and Buxton who combined hit .400 (i.e., each hitting ~.200) with one just deciding he needs a little work with the VELO, and a team of hitters that's leading MLB in SO and there's no other team in shouting distance.  And then we can start talking about our monopoly on SP who have appointments with orthopedic surgeons, and our unsurpassed record in trading for RP that blow save opportunities.  I'd say the FO (of which I generally approve because they're an improvement from Ryan) isn't hitting their weight yet.

Terry Ryan was a smart baseball man and still is  , if the pohlads had given him the resources  that the current regime has  , it could have been a different story for Ryan  ...

The current FO not hitting their weight in 7 years  with increased payroll  says alot  , they've made alot of questionable moves  and no pitching pipeline  as of yet  which he promised he would do the day of his press release  ....

You want to believe every word that FO and Rocco  say that's fine with me ...

I do not believe a word of it from them ,,,

Terry Ryan may have had bad luck drafting number 1 talent and is why alot of fans wanted to move on ...

Terry Ryan was always up front with the team to the fans and so was Kelly and gardenhire ( gardy was alittle more harsh )  ...

Today's FO and manager  go with the privacy act and the FO goes into hiding  when things don't go well ( no accountability ),  is that what you want  ...

Ryan  would accept  the total blame for the failures of the twins  even if the failures weren't his fault  ... 

Ryan wanted to succeed but had restraints  ...

Current FO has an unlimited  payroll  so it seems and pisses it away ...

[Whitey333]

It's a great article by Reusse.  The local sports media needs to start being a little more critical of the FO.  They have made some very questionable moves and signings.  Yet they never seem to be held accountable.  As far as Buxton and Corre having no trade clauses.  That doesn't mean they can't or won't be traded.  Many times players with no trade clauses have them waived for an opportunity to be traded perhaps to a contender.  That and of course plenty of cash to waive their no trade clause.  But Bu ton and Correa aren't going anywhere.  They are paid way too much.  Not many teams would take on their salary for what little production they give us.  Also why would they want to waive their no trade clause?  They make a ton of money hear and don't have tgd media pressure that other teams have.  Anyway thus FO and manager are proving to be a bust.