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Whether evaluating offseason or deadline deals, the Twins have made a handful of aggressive moves over the past couple of years. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have sought to construct a roster capable of sustained winning, and they have done so in looking to provide depth across all position groups.
Not knowing exactly what the Twins targets will be, or where, we can gain an understanding of what this regime has previously tried to do when acquiring value.
The Mahle Move
Last season, the Twins attempted to sustain their division lead by acquiring a starting pitcher. Rather than going for Frankie Montas, who was the top arm with the big name, they looked at the Reds Tyler Mahle. He put up very good underlying numbers in 2021 and a tweak or two could be argued to push him toward being an ace.
In parting with both Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Minnesota saw two prospects that were really bat-only players. Steer has some positional flexibility, but shouldn't be expected to win any Gold Gloves. Encarnacion-Strand was definitely not going to defend at all, and that left both behind at least a few players in the pecking order. Two prospect bats for a starting arm with upside is where this one likely fell.
The Paddack Acquisition
Although it was moving their closer Taylor Rogers for a San Diego reliever in Emilio Pagan, the Opening Day trade was absolutely about Chris Paddack. Minnesota’s front office was clearly unsure of Rogers’ health coming off an injury, and heading into free agency, he wasn’t likely going to be back.
Pagan gave the Twins an opportunity for an immediate relief replacement, but Paddack and his team control were too much to pass up. He could be had for a reliever because the health and durability concerns are real, but that was baked into the cost. Paddack looked strong for Minnesota before blowing out last season, but he’ll get an opportunity to contribute again as he works his way back. Capitalizing on a leverage reliever for a shot at a proven arm (when healthy) seems to be this thought process.
Working Into Maeda
When the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers were attempting to swap pieces for Mookie Betts, Minnesota did well to get involved. Needing serious pitching help at the time, Kenta Maeda was an arm that had shown good run in California. He’d been bumped from the rotation at times, but also flashed much of the promise that made him a heralded free agent acquisition.
Despite not having much firepower in relief, the Twins gave away Brusdar Graterol. Though he could pump triple-digits and looked like a future closer, finding an opportunity to get a high quality starter out of him was definitely a win. Maeda’s contract was written to plan for injury, ultimately happening for the Twins, but not before some very strong work after coming to Minnesota. Swapping a reliever for a starter with upside again was the gamble being taken.
Lopez For Closer
Last season, when the Twins needed help at the deadline, they looked at the bullpen as an area to upgrade. Jorge Lopez was an All-Star for the Baltimore Orioles, and despite a career of futility as a starter, 48 innings as a reliever made him coveted.
The Twins wanted Lopez so badly they parted with a prominent pitching prospect in Cade Povich, and also parted with Yennier Cano. The former was the prize of this package while the latter was a likely DFA candidate for Minnesota during the offseason. Relief pitching can be fickle and nothing highlights that more than the directions Lopez and Cano have gone since. Minnesota made this move at the height of a reliever’s value and did so, giving up a prospect that could burn them later.
Starting With Lopez
Arguably the most contentious trade the Twins have made in recent years involved Luis Arraez. The Miami Marlins had a few coveted pitchers and while the Twins would've liked to grab Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, they did well to target Pablo Lopez. Coming off of three strong years posting a 3.52 ERA, Lopez has underlying numbers that suggest he can be a quality arm with the ability to pitch up in the rotation. Minnesota needing pitching and to create depth, he was acquired and then extended to a long term deal.
It was never going to be easy moving on from Arraez. He was absolutely a fan favorite and is elite when it comes to arguably the most important skill in the game, hitting. Now batting .400 with Miami, there was never a doubt that he would be an asset with the bat. Minnesota didn't believe in his knees long term, and as a poor defender, it was clear that was a price they felt comfortable paying to get a good pitcher. Again, a difficult pill to swallow, a relatively one-dimensional hitter was the guy they felt ok with using to acquire strong pitching.
For the most part we can see that this front office has looked for unique ways to generate additional value. Whether that be gambling on injury as was the case with Maeda and Paddack, or playing for upside with blocked prospects as they did with Mahle. The outlier seems to be a true go-for-it type or immediate move that Lopez could be defined as, and that’s an outcome they’ll need to avoid in the future. If there's a win for both sides, the most straightforward move to pin that on would have been the Marlins trade.
How the Twins navigate this trade deadline remains to be seen, but the pattern is an established one. Clearly they have a level of risk tolerance that trends towards them seeking future value with some current question. They have often avoided reactionary moves as a whole. That plan is an understandable one, but they need it to bear more fruit than they have seen of late.
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- nclahammer and weitz41
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