Should The Twins Make A Swap At Third Base?

[Cody Pirkl]

Royce Lewis has held his own since returning from his second ACL tear. That being said, he has a ways to go toward being a consistent contributor. Should the next steps happen in the MLB?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Royce Lewis has put on quite the display of clutch hitting in a Twins lineup that needs saving seemingly on a nightly basis. His handful of monumental moments have been impressive, and in some cases, have single-handedly won the Twins games. Those moments have likely covered up a number of red flags in his body of work thus far in many fans' eyes, and it’s fair to wonder whether those red flags should be addressed on the MLB roster rather than St. Paul.

On the season, Lewis has slashed a respectable .281/.305/.404 (.709). His saving grace thus far on his total slash line was a stretch of what some would call batted ball luck, hitting safely in seven consecutive at-bats at one point. He’s walked just twice thus far, swinging at over half of the pitches he sees. 

Lewis has swung at 40% of pitches he’s seen outside of the zone. Alex Kirilloff has swung at just 27% of such pitches for reference. In addition, Lewis has struck out over one-third of the time and has a 36.4% whiff rate against fastballs. He’s being overly aggressive and has struggled to even make contact against heaters. 

A few weeks ago, it would have been easy to say “it is what it is” and allow him to continue trying to work through it. It was hard to expect him to be at the top of his game after missing so much time. Jose Miranda has heated up considerably recently, however. 

There are a few factors that come into play here. For starters, Jose Miranda has previously shown the ability to hit in the majors. Clearly, something was broken, as his poor production followed him into Triple-A after he was demoted. While it was always possible Lewis could simply play so well that Miranda’s production was a non-factor, Lewis hasn’t held up his side of the bargain with what is currently a below-league-average slash line. With Miranda appearing to be trending back up, it may be time to give him another shot at contributing. Just a few months ago, he was relied upon to be a middle-of-the-order contributor.

More importantly, the long-term production of Royce Lewis has to be taken into account. This isn’t a Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner situation where it can be argued that their struggles can’t be solved in Triple-A. Lewis currently has a flawed approach and is getting overpowered by major-league fastballs. It’s also an issue he had during his rehab assignment in St. Paul where he posted a 1.099 OPS. It’s exactly what you’d expect to see from a player who has missed so much time recently, but it’s also one that may be better solved against less dominant pitching.

Lewis was promoted out of necessity. Jose Miranda had fallen apart and the Twins lineup was in need of any spark it could get. Despite the impact Lewis has had on a handful of games, the goal should be to get him to that level more consistently, as he hasn’t been the consistent contributor the Twins had hoped for as a whole. Miranda’s difficult stretch to begin 2023 also doesn’t eliminate the possibility of him returning to form as a plus hitter in an MLB offense. 

In a straight-up swap, the Twins can get Miranda, who was once expected to be a major contributor another opportunity while setting Lewis up for success in the long term rather than risking him falling too far into bad habits as he tries to keep his head above water in the majors. Should the Twins consider it?

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[Brett]

It seems like you could have written this article about half the position players on the roster…just swap the names out.

[jorgenswest]

Sometime later this year I expect the same article about Kirilloff. Young players are going to struggle and go through some rough stretches. I would let both Lewis and Miranda work it out here. There is space for both with Kirilloff in RF. They don’t need to play everyday to develop. 

(Note: veteran’s go through rough stretches also but there are other discussions to address those concerns).

[TwinsDr2021]

The idea of sending 24, 25 and 26 year old men to the minor leagues to fix things is a concept I just don't understand. Sure it might work for a player here or there to get their head in the right place, but it seems to be the Twins solution to everything, Bring up a guy at 24 give them a little bit of a chance, if the struggle send them down, they get hot in AAA bring them up, rinse and repeat. Maybe other teams do this as well but it seems like a losing strategy. Because you get into a situation like the current one, a bunch of mid 20 guys that haven't taken a job but are taking of 40 man roster spots. (Lewis, AK, Larnach, Wallner, Miranda, Julien, Gordon)

 

[umterp23]

No need to demote Lewis at this time.  The way the Twins are trending as a team in the crappiest division in baseball, the trade deadline we could be moving more pieces out/off the team that will allow all the young guys to be on the roster together.  I'm more excited about that then anything else at this point.

Slow death by 1,000 statistical paper cuts is upon us.  

[weitz41]

I think you double down on Lewis for right now. Miranda is playing much better, but I wouldn't say he's forced himself back on the roster just yet. Around the all-star break if both remain the same then make a switch.

[Chris Spencer]

I'm looking at last nights lineup against a Lefty, there is not one bat in the lineup I would rather see than Lewis and he is not even in the lineup.  I am not against giving Miranda another chance but I would look at somebody other than Lewis for demotion or IL. 

[sorney]

Yeah, I'd be fine with this.  Get Lewis going in AAA

[danielp19653]

Put Buck on the IL until he can play the field, pull up Miranda, then DH either Miranda or Julien and Lewis takes the other spot. We aren't competitive enough this year to not try and let the youth movement take over.

[DJL44]

Everyone looks good when you send them to AAA for a while. Larnach has a 1200 OPS in AAA versus a 700 OPS in the big leagues. If you aren't above a 1000 OPS in AAA you probably aren't ready for a promotion.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I thought what Miranda needed in April/May was a run at DH, or a couple days off. What Kirilloff needs is first base, and what Lewis needs is to play shortstop. (There is 3/4s of next season’s infield if you had asked me this past offseason)

Anyway, the AAA carousel is not the answer, in my opinion. I think it’s also time to turn our gaze from the players to the coaching philosophy and stuff like that.

[karcherd]

Give him a chance, he has played 16 games and has 60 plate appearances.  We know there will be some good and some not so good moments with younger players.  But let him play up here and learn over the course of a season.  He was a number 1 pick for a reason.  This AAA shuttle when they don't have superior players playing in front of them, see Kepler and Wallner, is getting old.  Either go out and get proven front line players to start, and Gallo is not one of those, or give the young guys a chance.  Having all these middle of the road veterans at best and treading water is getting tiresome.  At least give these young guys a chance and see what you have.  If we lose we can at least see some hope for the future or know where the holes are.

[srlarson]

move Lewis to 2nd, put Miranda at 3rd......get them both in the lineup.....lots of other dead weight on the team that can be sent out...

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The player who plays 3B needs to be a good fielder. That person is Lewis over Miranda by far. 3B requires a strong throwing arm. That person is Lewis over Miranda. Speed helps win games in the field and on the base paths. That person is Lewis over Miranda.  Being an everyday player is more than just batting.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Sometime later this year I expect the same article about Kirilloff. Young players are going to struggle and go through some rough stretches. I would let both Lewis and Miranda work it out here. There is space for both with Kirilloff in RF. They don’t need to play everyday to develop. 

(Note: veteran’s go through rough stretches also but there are other discussions to address those concerns).

But Solano has been one of their few dependable hitters at 1B which is the reason Kirilloff is in the outfield. If they were out of the race I'd agree.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 minute ago, srlarson said:

move Lewis to 2nd, put Miranda at 3rd......get them both in the lineup.....lots of other dead weight on the team that can be sent out...

I thought this too, but could not figure out who to send down. Solano, Farmer, Castro, Julien...? I don't think so. 

[saviking]

Lewis needs swings in the major's to get better. I'd stack his .281 average at this stage of the year up to Gallo, Kepler sub .200, Buxton trending that way, Honestly I thought the article was going to be about the errors he's made at third base ..

[Fire Dan Gladden]

And the articles of over-reaction continue....

 

[MABB1959]

Way past time to let him learn and take his knocks.  How else will he improve.  Not like we have an amazing team and he is causing them more losses.  Plenty of bonehead defensive mistakes from many others

[USAFChief]

51 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I thought what Miranda needed in April/May was a run at DH, or a couple days off. What Kirilloff needs is first base, and what Lewis needs is to play shortstop. (There is 3/4s of next season’s infield if you had asked me this past offseason)

Anyway, the AAA carousel is not the answer, in my opinion. I think it’s also time to turn our gaze from the players to the coaching philosophy and stuff like that.

Lewis isn't going to play SS. For one thing, Correa is a really good defensive SS, besides which the Twins didn't give him $200m not to play short. 

For another, Lewis isn't ever going to be good enough defensively to play short full time. 

[Karbo]

38 minutes ago, srlarson said:

move Lewis to 2nd, put Miranda at 3rd......get them both in the lineup.....lots of other dead weight on the team that can be sent out...

I would also move Julian to 1st. Let Lewis play full time and have him stealing some bases. Try to unload Kepler and Gallo and make room for Larmach. This team seems to be going nowhere so might as well let the young guys get some valuable playing time and experience.

[roger]

1 hour ago, Chris Spencer said:

I'm looking at last nights lineup against a Lefty, there is not one bat in the lineup I would rather see than Lewis and he is not even in the lineup.  I am not against giving Miranda another chance but I would look at somebody other than Lewis for demotion or IL. 

I noticed that also Chris.  And it didn't make sense because Rocco seems to pinch hit for any lefty bat when a lefty reliever comes in.  Was wondering if Lewis isn't 100%?  He did have one heck of a collision at first base, what was it a week or so ago?  But agreed, Lewis at third and Farmer at second would have made a ton of sense yesterday.

[Dantes929]

You bet on the magic.    The lineup with talent would include Correa, Buxton, Kiriloff, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, and Jeffers.   I don't believe Miranda, suddenly lost the talent to hit.   He will be back to middle of the order.    I can't believe what we have seen from Buxton and Correa is what we will continue to see either.    

[roger]

54 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

But Solano has been one of their few dependable hitters at 1B which is the reason Kirilloff is in the outfield. If they were out of the race I'd agree.

Agreed, Cody.  But wouldn't it be wonderful to give Solano most of his at bats as the DH?  

[Mike Sixel]

No. But I'd work really hard to convince him to move to the OF and put Miranda back at third. This isn't a very good team, let's find out if it can be next year or not. Personally, I'd promote Lee and Severino to AAA, put them at third and second, and see if they should be in Minnesota sooner rather than later. 

Julien? He's a legit hitter.... But where to play him?

I'm in the camp of ILing Buxton for two weeks, then rehab for a week. Put Julien at DH and Farmer or Lewis or Lee or Severino at second. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

55 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Lewis isn't going to play SS. For one thing, Correa is a really good defensive SS, besides which the Twins didn't give him $200m not to play short. 

For another, Lewis isn't ever going to be good enough defensively to play short full time. 

Wrong. Correa is a great defensive shortstop. 🙂

But that's not really my point.

Polanco wasn't great at short, but I was fine with him there. Given enough time and a long enough leash, I am betting Lewis would have demonstrated that he was not as good as Correa, but was better than Polanco. Instead, we are discussing whether Lewis is even good enough to hold down third base.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

But Solano has been one of their few dependable hitters at 1B which is the reason Kirilloff is in the outfield. If they were out of the race I'd agree.

I don’t think it is wise to believe that his next two months will be as dependable as his previous two months. The sample is too small.

Solano in a role starting against left handed pitching and ready on the bench against a right handed starting pitcher will play to his strengths. That might require Lewis to play 2B against a lefty.

[Blyleven2011]

Crazy we were all clamoring for Lewis and now we are picking him apart ...

If he has holes in his swing , it's up to HIM and COACHES to get it fixed  ...

If he is a below average defender at third base it is up to HIM and the COACHES to get it fixed ...

To me it seems  when a player gets to the show , Rocco and coaches think that player doesn't need  further coaching to make that talent  even a better talent , Rocco has always said that the players should prepare for the game as they seem fit ...

That's why we lack the real fundamentals of the game in my personal opinion  ...

[Old Crow]

3 hours ago, Brett said:

It seems like you could have written this article about half the position players on the roster…just swap the names out.

Starting with Buxton.

[Parfigliano]

17 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Crazy we were all clamoring for Lewis and now we are picking him apart ...

If he has holes in his swing , it's up to HIM and COACHES to get it fixed  ...

If he is a below average defender at third base it is up to HIM and the COACHES to get it fixed ...

To me it seems  when a player gets to the show , Rocco and coaches think that player doesn't need  further coaching to make that talent  even a better talent , Rocco has always said that the players should prepare for the game as they seem fit ...

That's why we lack the real fundamentals of the game in my personal opinion  ...

I'd be ecstatic if the current Twins MLB level hitting coaches stay far away from the young Twins hitters.  Then again I've been calling for the Twins hitting coaches to be replaced for months.