BREAKING: Twins Finalizing an Extension with Star Pitcher Pablo Lopez

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins and Opening Day starter Pablo Lopez are said to be finalizing an agreement on a four-year contract extension. Coming over from the Miami Marlins this offseason, the front office locked up their new ace.

 

Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

When trading Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins this winter there was never going to be a situation where his departure would sit well with fans. However, getting an arm like Pablo Lopez in return could certainly soften the blow, and his performance thus far has been nothing short of exceptional.

According to Marlins beat writer Craig Mish, the sides are closing in on a four-year deal worth $73.5 million. That would have Lopez paid just over $18.3 million annually. That seems like a bargain given the $27 million annual amount the New York Yankees handed Carlos Rodon this winter. Although they may not be the same level of pitcher, Lopez has displayed a substantially longer track record of health. Rodon did get his money on the open market with multiple suitors whereas Lopez would not have hit free agency until after the 2024 season.

Lopez has come out of the gates strong for the Twins posting a 1.73 ERA across his first four starts. He leads Major League Baseball in strikeouts having tallied 33 across 26 innings pitched. His 11.4 K/9 is a new career high, and it’s clear his sweeper addition has been nothing short of a powerful new weapon for him.

It remains to be seen if Lopez can continue this level of production throughout the entirety of 2023, but for a guy many questioned as the ace of a staff, he’s looked every bit the part. Lopez has been a breath of fresh air for Twins fans looking to Rocco Baldelli for length from starters, and he’s allowed teammates like Sonny Gray and Joey Ryan to benefit as well.

Set to be a free agent in 2025, the contract extension will buy out the 2024 arbitration year, and begin at the end of this season. Lopez is currently making $5.45 million through arbitration in 2023 for the Twins, and a four-year extension will have him with the club through his age-31 season.

Minnesota should be happy with both the length and valuation of the contract. It’s a hefty sum, but not one unheard of for a top pitcher. Lopez can re-enter the market at 32 and look for another substantial payday as well.

The move provides the Twins some rotation certainty in the year ahead. Gray is set to be a free agent as is Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda. That would leave just Ryan and Chris Paddack as big league starters currently with guaranteed contracts. Lopez is a definite horse that can anchor a group soon to more regularly include Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland, Bailey Ober, and others.

What are your thoughts on the Twins locking up Lopez for the next few years? Does this change the outlook of the Arraez trade at all? Given that he has been so good to start 2023, did they get a bargain?

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[Dman]

Wow that is amazing news.  This should really solidify the rotation.  Thank you Pablo!

[DJL44]

Great move

[Cory Engelhardt]

Great move!

[DFlow]

A few notes:

1) Great deal- everyone wins here

2) Right now we are allocating about 30 million to the starting pitchers. Next year with this deal, we will still be well under. It will be interesting to see if we still maintain or acquire another rotational arm.

3) will a new tv deal lead to more payroll? Is this move in response to this? I ask because Falvey has been very risk averse to signing pitching but an influx of funds could mean future payroll increases making this an easier move.

[raindog]

Incredible deal. He’s going to be our ace for 4 more years. 

[BuxtonBonanza]

The 2024 rotation has been such a question mark due to expiring contracts, its great to see the FO invest to extend the most locked-in pitcher on the staff. 

[weitz41]

Wow this is great news!

Loosing Luis was painful but Pablo has been great, and 4 more years makes the trade sting a lot less.

[cjj td]

Awesome.  That is all

 

 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, DFlow said:

2) Right now we are allocating about 30 million to the starting pitchers. Next year with this deal, we will still be well under. It will be interesting to see if we still maintain or acquire another rotational arm.

I think Gray and Mahle will get a qualifying offer (less confident on Maeda). One of them might accept it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As much as I've railed on the front office over the past couple of years, they've been doing a hell of a lot right for the past six months, even if the way they get there is... unexpected.

[danielp19653]

3 minutes ago, DFlow said:

3) will a new tv deal lead to more payroll? Is this move in response to this? I ask because Falvey has been very risk averse to signing pitching but an influx of funds could mean future payroll increases making this an easier move.

I hope it leads to more money, but given the death of RSNs I don't think the Twins are going to get a deal much better than they currently have. They weren't listed as one of teams running negative for Bally but if they're willing to not pay them and potentially lose this one year of coverage they obviously aren't generating a ton more. I don't see them taking a new RSN deal unless it allows streaming rights but that also lessens the value of the cable side. I think the tv deal with streaming rights probably pulls the same money they currently get.

 

Also love the Pablo news, makes me feel much better about the state of the rotation next year.

[DJL44]

The surplus value of this extension (estimated $30M) makes the Arraez trade a clear win for the Twins.

[CRF]

Definitely good news!

[Vanimal46]

This is excellent news! Lopez, Paddack, and Ryan locked in for multiple years with an extended MLB track record. Ober, Varland, SWR, and others waiting in the wings. 

[HrbieFan]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think Gray and Mahle will get a qualifying offer (less confident on Maeda). One of them might accept it.

At this point, Mahle could only hope for a QO. I know it's early, so let's see where they are come September.  As of today I'd offer Gray 2 years 

[Kummel]

Fantastic news.  It's early, but things feel different this year on the field - and off.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

As much as I've railed on the front office over the past couple of years, they've been doing a hell of a lot right for the past six months, even if the way they get there is... unexpected.

I agree 100%. One of the main reasons Falvey was hired was to build a pitching staff. I say, mission accomplished. for 2023. Keep up the fire, FO. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

At this point, Mahle could only hope for a QO. I know it's early, so let's see where they are come September.  As of today I'd offer Gray 2 years 

yes.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Solid move. Of the current bunch, Lopez is the guy to extend. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 minute ago, Kummel said:

Fantastic news.  It's early, but things feel different this year on the field - and off.

I agree.

[weitz41]

3 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

At this point, Mahle could only hope for a QO. I know it's early, so let's see where they are come September.  As of today I'd offer Gray 2 years 

I'd like to see that as well. It would make the prospect traded a moot point imo. 

[minman1982]

Lopez certainly seems like a guy who number 2 starter is his floor and true ace is his ceiling. To get him locked up for four years at just over $18M/year is a steal. 

[USAFChief]

Great news! 

[roger]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think Gray and Mahle will get a qualifying offer (less confident on Maeda). One of them might accept it.

Agree with Gray, DJL44.  Not so certain about Mahle.  He is going to have to pitch a lot better than his last start.  In any case, they now will have Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober and Varland for multiple years.  That's five.  Agree that they will try to keep at least one of the three veterans for next year.

[LA Vikes Fan]

23 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

As much as I've railed on the front office over the past couple of years, they've been doing a hell of a lot right for the past six months, even if the way they get there is... unexpected.

Agreed and love this move. A 4 year contract for a quality MLB starting pitcher that can fill the #1 or #2 spot in a contending team rotation for less than $20m a year? Very well done. Injury could derail this of course, but even 3 good years out of the 4 year deal would be an awesome return. 

Who's next? I would love to see them work out something with Gray - maybe 3 years, $40-50m? He's 33 so there's risk there but that lowers the AAV. Mahle? Not so sure about him. Let's not overrate him just because we may have given up too much to get him. 

It's great to see that they are trying to maximize the 6 year competitive window of the Correa and Buxton contracts. We might be in for a longish run of competitive teams. Wow, wouldn't have said that 6 months ago....  

[Jocko87]

29 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

As much as I've railed on the front office over the past couple of years, they've been doing a hell of a lot right for the past six months, even if the way they get there is... unexpected.

Exactly this. They also had to have a good idea that he was extendable prior to the trade which makes me wonder how they were able to keep a straight face asking the Marlins to throw in a couple prospects. Love it!

[Nashvilletwin]

Fantastic deal.  Great job by the FO!  This takes the sting out of the deal by a great deal.  Hat’s off to all and congrats to Pablo as well.

We will get one more - hopefully Gray or some other FA next offseason  - to go with Ryan and Lopez.  Then we have the youngins’ on the way.

 

The starting staff vision is very rosy.

[JD-TWINS]

Looking forward with Pablo:

So we are spending $13M more per year (currently $5.4M) for Pablo over next 4 years……..great number for Twins - great contract length - gives Pablo security even though he’s not owed this type of deal for another 1.5 seasons & has had some arm issues.

We have Paddack (a 4-5 guy) in the rotation through ‘25. Ryan is around another 4 years. Ober & Varland are solid options for next year with good health!

Gallo - Kepler - Polanco - Solano - Taylor Mahle - Maeda all gone after this year, my prediction. We have options at CF - corner OF - 2B galore! We save around $47M freeing these guys. We’re spending $13M extra on Pablo, leaving us $34M (from this year’s budget) to spend & not increase budget.

Extend Gray 2 years ASAP for current salary, plus $8 - $10M, maybe overpay a bit but give him security ASAP & we get a short term deal……fair for both sides! Having him in our stable really leaves us with strong staff going forward w/o going to free agency.

Gotta pay for the replacements for guys above at $800K each……..$4.8M. Still leaves us $18M to spend on a couple of the guys above or some unknown offense. Maybe $6.5M for Maeda in long relief in Pen? He’s gotta be realistic on his value. 

Lots of good options to spend a bit & get better in ‘24 - focused on 1-2 guys after already solidifying staff for years to come.

Extend Ryan early-middle of next year!!

[Brandon]

Pablo was scheduled to be here next season anyways so we still have 2-3 holes to fill in the rotation next season.  Hopefully we sign one of our starters to an extension and go young.  Maybe Meada on a 2 year 26 million extension…