The Twins could have Six Top-50 Draft Picks in 2024

[Greggory Masterson]

If you’re looking for an obscure storyline to follow in 2023, pay attention to the seasons of four key impending free agents.

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The rules governing MLB are nothing, if not labyrinthine. The draft rules are no different. Between qualifying offers, competitive balance picks, and the standard first-round pick, the Twins have the potential to fill their draft boards.

MLB teams can offer their impending free agents a Qualifying Offer (QO) at the end of the season. If the player rejects it, teams can receive an additional draft pick. The rules are complicated, but if the Twins are still a revenue-sharing recipient and the player signs a contract north of $50 million, they will gain a draft pick between the first and second rounds. The pick would be between the second and third rounds if the player signs for less than $50 million.

Have you got it? Super simple. The bottom line is that if the Twins give the QO to an impending free agent, and he rejects it, they essentially get an extra first-round pick.

Do the Twins have any players who could receive the QO? Yes, several. To give a player the QO, the team has two criteria. First, the player must not have received a QO from their current team or any other team. Second, the player has to have spent the entire season on the team’s roster.

The Twins have seven players projected to be eligible for the QO. However, the QO is a one-year deal equal to the average of MLB’s top 125 player salaries, likely around $20 million. Something has to go horribly right for three players—Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor, and Emilio Pagán—to sniff the QO.

Depending on how they play, a solid case can be made for each of the other four to receive the QO. It’s something of a win-win for the team. If the player accepts the offer, the team pays them a hefty salary for only one year—no strings attached. The team gets a draft pick for their troubles if they reject it.

So, who are these four players, and what are the odds they will receive a QO?

Kenta Maeda
Maeda is likely the longest shot in this camp, but it’s not unfeasible. It’s hard to predict how he will play this season, coming off of Tommy John surgery at almost 35, but if he pitches anywhere close to how he did in 2020, it’s reasonable.

He would also be the most likely of the group to accept the offer. At his age, his chances of securing a multi-year deal are lower, so if he doesn’t think he could get a deal in free agency around $50 million over two years (Justin Verlander’s 2022 deal coming off of Tommy John, for reference), a $20 million payday would be good for him. It would also be an affordable veteran arm for the younger 2024 team.

Sonny Gray
2023 will be Gray’s 11th year in the big leagues, but he signed an extension early in his career that kept him from testing free agency (and kept him underpaid). Now he’s 33 and an established #2 starter heading into free agency after the season.

A comparable (albeit more durable) player who signed a deal in free agency this year is Chris Bassitt. Bassitt signed a three-year, $63 million contract with the QO attached to him. If Gray has another season like 2022, with better health and more innings, he could be in line for more than Bassitt got. The Twins would gladly bring him back for $20 million or get a draft pick.

Tyler Mahle
Mahle is the highest-upside pitcher in this group and, not coincidentally, the youngest. If his shoulder proves healthy and he keeps his home runs down in pitcher-friendly Target Field, he could put together a season solidifying himself as an upper-level number-2 starter.

In 2022, similar starters in age and ability Eduardo Rodriquez and Marcus Stroman fetched contracts over $70 million guaranteed. Rodriguez had the QO attached, and Stroman accepted his QO the year prior.

If Mahle and his representation saw $70 million as feasible, they would likely pursue free agency. Given his age, he may sign a contract for five-plus years, taking him into his mid-30s and even push $100 million. Again, the Twins would gladly accept either outcome from him.

Joey Gallo
Here’s the wildcard. Gallo is a two-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner. He also hit .160 last year. If he had been a free agent last offseason, he would have netted over $100 million on his next contract, even with his struggles down the stretch. Instead, he’s on a make-good, one-year deal with Minnesota.

If he rediscovers his form, playing elite defense in the outfield, getting on base at a .335 clip, and hits 35 home runs, he will assuredly receive the QO and reject it. Even if he plays at 80% of that pace, there’s a case to be made. (Andrew Benintendi signed a five-year, $75 million deal this offseason).

What are the odds that all four players play well enough to justify a QO? Probably low. The Twins current front office has only ever offered one player the QO—Jake Odorizzi in 2019—and he accepted it. I would be shocked, though, if none of them received it, and I think there’s a better chance for all four to get one than for none of them to get one.

Combined with their standard first-rounder and a potential competitive balance pick, which they have been receiving lately due to market size and revenue, the Twins could have as many as six draft picks before the second round.

I’m not saying it’s likely, but as JP from Angels in the Outfield would say, “It could happen.” I’m sure Twins scouting director Sean Johnson is licking his chops.

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[Tyler from Oregon]

Straight up, if Gallo, Grey, and Mahle all have good seasons, I'd absolutely throw them each a QO. I'd have to assume that none of them take it (maybe Gallo?) but draft picks are pretty cool.

[Doctor Gast]

I can see all 4 have a plus performance this year. I can also see Gallo, Gray & Mahle be offered QOs. If all 3 except fine if they reject also fine. I agree that Maeda won't be offered an QO, and if anyone would offer a good trade for him before the deadline they should take it.

[Dman]

Nice article and I have thought about those scenarios as well.  Like others I think a Maeda QO is pretty unlikely.  If he does well I could see the Twins trying to pay him for a couple of more years but at 35 the odds seem to be that they will just let him walk but let's see how well he does this year as that could change things.

Things have to go right for Mahle and Gray to get QO's but given their past performance it sure seems like they will be worthy if they just stay healthy.  The question is will the Twins want one of them longer term or just QO for draft compensation.

Gallo needs to have a good year but if he does it would be a real good outcome to get good production out of him and get draft pick compensation.

If the Twins managed to get three extra comp picks that would help offset what they gave away to get those arms and give the farm a boost.  A lot has to go right but it sure would be nice if it happened.

[roger]

Interesting topic.  Question, are there any limitations on how many QO a team can offer?  I think  the franchise tag in football is limited to one per season, can a MLB team offer multiple QO's?

As for Mahle, Maeda and Gray, I sincerely hope the Twins extend one of these guys so they have excellent starting rotations in future years.

[Shaitan]

The way pitchers get paid, it's almost a no brainer to give a QO to most starters. They're unlikely to take it.

Plus, you've given me a trolling theme to root for Pagan now.

[chpettit19]

Gray, Mahle, and Gallo all getting QOs and signing for 50M+ would be fantastic. You can restock the farm big time with that. Even just 1 or 2 of them getting the QO and 50+ would be great. I mean all 3 getting the QO, but getting less than 50M, would still be good by adding 3 extra picks a little later in the draft. I'd predict at least 2 of them get the QO and 50M+ so the Twins will have basically 3 first round picks next year. Hopefully those 2 are Gray and Gallo while Mahle is good and signs an extension to stay here and front the rotation with Lopez (he's starting to grow on me). That'd be the ideal situation.

[chpettit19]

49 minutes ago, roger said:

Interesting topic.  Question, are there any limitations on how many QO a team can offer?  I think  the franchise tag in football is limited to one per season, can a MLB team offer multiple QO's?

As for Mahle, Maeda and Gray, I sincerely hope the Twins extend one of these guys so they have excellent starting rotations in future years.

No limitations on the QOs a team can offer. As examples: Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Yankees put QOs on 2 players this last offseason. Mets had 3. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Maeda may have a stipulation in his contract that doesn't allow him to be QO'd. 

Almost always Japanese players have it written that they become a free agent when their contract expires. Usually that's as protection in case they get sent down and don't get to 6 years of service, but it *could* also include not being tied to QO. I'm not positive if Maeda's does or doesn't. 

[Jocko87]

The Gallo signing makes more and more sense the more we talk about it. 

[KirbyDome89]

If Mahle is worth a QO he's almost certainly gone without an extension. I doubt Gray is trying to reset his market at 34, so if he's worth a QO he's also likely looking at multi year deals or an extension. Of the two I'd be more interested in extending Mahle, but I have serious doubts that this FO is interested in doing a 3-5 year extension at $20M+ per year. I can see them doing another two years with Gray, but again, that's a 34 year old who isn't exactly a workhorse so they could be ready to move on there as well. 

I have zero interest in retaining Maeda or Gallo. 

[Shaitan]

Speaking on Gallo, I thought one-year contracts didn't meet the terms for a QO.

Or was that the previous CBA?

Either way, his bounceback is a longshot... This stuff is still fun to nitpick.

[Rosterman]

Depending on where the Twins are come mid-season, if any of the 7 names mentioned is showing full production to start the season, and if Twins prospects start to line-up well, they could have some dynamite tradebait, too. 

Gray would be much sought after. Yes, he would be the best bet for a qualifying offer (or an extension) if he pitches well, but the Twins MIGHT like to move on and save money for 2024 (or invest in another free agent) if Varland, Woods Richardson, Ober, Winder show any signs of being ready THIS year. Not to mention Headrick.

Mahle will be an interesting watch. I'm not BIG on an extension, so a trade might be the best deal, if he isn't woth a QO. Can the Twins get the equvalent of a Steer/Encarcion-Strand back for him?

Madea, I just worry about lasting the season. I would consider starting him in the pen, of piggybacking him with a long-relief/starter like Ober to start the season. But have to see how the bullpen and rotation end up overall.

Pagan, gad...I hope he shines and the Twins can flip him. Seems he has a roster spot no matttr what to start the seaon. Most of us would replace him in a minute.

Of course, Gallo is using this season to rebuild his value. The Twins will also have to make a decision on Kepler. Martin being out, Kirilloff still questionable, we still have Larnach and Wallner having to prove themselves this year. Plus the need to find a position for Lewis at some point. Again, Gallo could be a tradechip if he bangs the ball. I doubt, even with his age, I would go for an extension. I feel he is already avstly overpaid. Sorry.

The Twins also could move Taylor or Solano if the need arises. Julien could be on the cusp. Not having Celestino in the mix hurts as a Celestino replacement. I see the Saints outfield to be full of minor league free agents. Of course, we are all hoping Buxton plays 100+ games in the outfield.

Players back in trade can be as useful as additional draft picks. Don't rule that out for any member of the off-season free agent class.

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Depending on where the Twins are come mid-season, if any of the 7 names mentioned is showing full production to start the season, and if Twins prospects start to line-up well, they could have some dynamite tradebait, too. 

Gray would be much sought after. Yes, he would be the best bet for a qualifying offer (or an extension) if he pitches well, but the Twins MIGHT like to move on and save money for 2024 (or invest in another free agent) if Varland, Woods Richardson, Ober, Winder show any signs of being ready THIS year. Not to mention Headrick.

Mahle will be an interesting watch. I'm not BIG on an extension, so a trade might be the best deal, if he isn't woth a QO. Can the Twins get the equvalent of a Steer/Encarcion-Strand back for him?

Madea, I just worry about lasting the season. I would consider starting him in the pen, of piggybacking him with a long-relief/starter like Ober to start the season. But have to see how the bullpen and rotation end up overall.

Pagan, gad...I hope he shines and the Twins can flip him. Seems he has a roster spot no matttr what to start the seaon. Most of us would replace him in a minute.

Of course, Gallo is using this season to rebuild his value. The Twins will also have to make a decision on Kepler. Martin being out, Kirilloff still questionable, we still have Larnach and Wallner having to prove themselves this year. Plus the need to find a position for Lewis at some point. Again, Gallo could be a tradechip if he bangs the ball. I doubt, even with his age, I would go for an extension. I feel he is already avstly overpaid. Sorry.

The Twins also could move Taylor or Solano if the need arises. Julien could be on the cusp. Not having Celestino in the mix hurts as a Celestino replacement. I see the Saints outfield to be full of minor league free agents. Of course, we are all hoping Buxton plays 100+ games in the outfield.

Players back in trade can be as useful as additional draft picks. Don't rule that out for any member of the off-season free agent class.

The pending FAs being worthy of a QO changes the math on deadline trades and raises the price. Could be good or bad for the idea of trading them depending on the view. The equation changes from needing to get a return worthy of their performance for the rest of the 2023 season to needing to get a return worthy of their performance for the rest of the 2023 season plus the value of a late 1st round pick (or 3rd rd pick depending on the size of the deal you think they'd get). 

It can make it much harder to find a trade partner willing to give up what you'd demand in return at the deadline. All the "math" on this also changes depending on the team's W-L situation as well. But some teams would back away from giving a prospect return equal to the major leaguer's 2nd half value plus a late first round pick so it can limit your pool of trade partner possibilities. But if you can find a willing partner it can also mean you get a really nice return for that type of guy.

My hope is the team is in first place because all these guys are performing well and they don't trade any of them and get 2 or 3 comp picks for next year.

[Brandon]

I would be happy with 3 or 4 picks in the top 50 for sure.  I doubt we get all 6 and we want to leave room for 1 extension.  So Gray has never received a QO before?  I guess he lost that value with the Yanks.  

[roger]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

No limitations on the QOs a team can offer. As examples: Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Yankees put QOs on 2 players this last offseason. Mets had 3. 

Thanks.  If they don’t extend Gray or Mahle, we may see them use two.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, roger said:

Thanks.  If they don’t extend Gray or Mahle, we may see them use two.

No problem! My hope is we see them give out 3 (Mahle, Gray, Gallo) if there's no extensions done. And hopefully at least 2 of those get 50 million or more and the Twins get really nice picks. A Mahle extension, and 2 picks following the 1st round as compensation for Gray and Gallo is the perfect situation for me. Likely means the team did quite well this season, and they're setting themselves up really nicely for the future.

[DocBauer]

I guess I had focused more on re-sign possibilities and possible retention options via the QO I hadn't really thought in detail about potential draft implications. What might be an issue, in the case of the proposed scenario, is the draft capital to sign everyone. Selecting 5th automatically raises the Twins draft pool for this year. But what happens if they add another 2 or 3 high selections? Might be hard to manage.

As far as how the bug 4 play out? Maeda is a relatively inexpensive 1-2yr sign for depth and another veteran presence. But I don't think the Twins want him at $20M, even for a single year.

If Gallo returns to form, he's an easy choice to offer the QO for. The Twins SHOULD have a replacement in Larnach already on hand, and Wallner, and Gallo would surely reject the offer in favor of a longer term deal elsewhere.

Mahle and Gray are obvious extension candidates. Will it happen and which one is not the point right now. But if one, or both, aren't going to be re-signed, then a 1yr QO makes complete sense. It's possible someone could accept it, and that would be fine. Rejection of said brings a pick.

Hopefully, we get a re-sign of Gray or Mahle, and then a rejected offer from the other and Gallo.

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I guess I had focused more on re-sign possibilities and possible retention options via the QO I hadn't really thought in detail about potential draft implications. What might be an issue, in the case of the proposed scenario, is the draft capital to sign everyone. Selecting 5th automatically raises the Twins draft pool for this year. But what happens if they add another 2 or 3 high selections? Might be hard to manage.

As far as how the bug 4 play out? Maeda is a relatively inexpensive 1-2yr sign for depth and another veteran presence. But I don't think the Twins want him at $20M, even for a single year.

If Gallo returns to form, he's an easy choice to offer the QO for. The Twins SHOULD have a replacement in Larnach already on hand, and Wallner, and Gallo would surely reject the offer in favor of a longer term deal elsewhere.

Mahle and Gray are obvious extension candidates. Will it happen and which one is not the point right now. But if one, or both, aren't going to be re-signed, then a 1yr QO makes complete sense. It's possible someone could accept it, and that would be fine. Rejection of said brings a pick.

Hopefully, we get a re-sign of Gray or Mahle, and then a rejected offer from the other and Gallo.

FYI, adding those extra picks would get the Twins extra bonus pool money. It'd actually be a good thing in terms of signing draft picks as they'd have much more money to spread around. Picks right after the first round carry slot bonuses in the 2.4 million range. Adding 2 or 3 of them would get the Twins an extra 5- 7.5ish million for signings.

I'm right with you on the situation with Mahle, Gray, and Gallo. I think extending one of the arms and getting 2 top 35 picks for the other 2 would be the perfect outcome.

[IndianaTwin]

I’m with the others in the “doubtful” category on Maeda, but I don’t think his expectations would be anywhere close to 2/$50M to think it’s worth the risk on testing the market.

If he’s wrestling with whether to take a year at $20M as a guy turning 36 a few days into the 2024 season, it’s hard for him to envision a team offering more than, say, $15 million to a guy turning 37 a few days into 2025.

That’s 2/$35M in a best-case scenario for him. In that scenario, he probably only thinks he needs a guaranteed 2/$32M or so to beat the risk of getting $20M in the bag and needing to pitch well enough to get at least $12 in the second year. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Depending on where the Twins are come mid-season, if any of the 7 names mentioned is showing full production to start the season, and if Twins prospects start to line-up well, they could have some dynamite tradebait, too. 

Gray would be much sought after. Yes, he would be the best bet for a qualifying offer (or an extension) if he pitches well, but the Twins MIGHT like to move on and save money for 2024 (or invest in another free agent) if Varland, Woods Richardson, Ober, Winder show any signs of being ready THIS year. Not to mention Headrick.

Mahle will be an interesting watch. I'm not BIG on an extension, so a trade might be the best deal, if he isn't woth a QO. Can the Twins get the equvalent of a Steer/Encarcion-Strand back for him?

Madea, I just worry about lasting the season. I would consider starting him in the pen, of piggybacking him with a long-relief/starter like Ober to start the season. But have to see how the bullpen and rotation end up overall.

Pagan, gad...I hope he shines and the Twins can flip him. Seems he has a roster spot no matttr what to start the seaon. Most of us would replace him in a minute.

Of course, Gallo is using this season to rebuild his value. The Twins will also have to make a decision on Kepler. Martin being out, Kirilloff still questionable, we still have Larnach and Wallner having to prove themselves this year. Plus the need to find a position for Lewis at some point. Again, Gallo could be a tradechip if he bangs the ball. I doubt, even with his age, I would go for an extension. I feel he is already avstly overpaid. Sorry.

The Twins also could move Taylor or Solano if the need arises. Julien could be on the cusp. Not having Celestino in the mix hurts as a Celestino replacement. I see the Saints outfield to be full of minor league free agents. Of course, we are all hoping Buxton plays 100+ games in the outfield.

Players back in trade can be as useful as additional draft picks. Don't rule that out for any member of the off-season free agent class.

The Twins aren't trading veterans if they are in contention. 

[Chachi]

Are those extra picks also tradable assets?

[Whitey333]

No way Maeda falls in a category of 2/$50 mil.  Not even close.   Whichever way it goes I believe it's his last season with the Twins.  Gray is worth keeping but he's already making $12 mil this season.  Unless he has a great season I don't see the Twins going much higher than his current salary.  The one I'm most worried about is Mahle.  Potential is there but he's hurt a lot and hasn't had a good spring thus far.  If he could pitch well and stay off the injured list he may be one to invest in.  It's also very possible all three of them will be gone and need to be replaced. Draft picks are good but you never know of course if they will ever make it.

[terrydactyls]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Twins aren't trading veterans if they are in contention. 

Are you 100% sure of that?  What if Larnach or Wallner or Julien are hitting the snot out of the ball by late July?  Would you keep Gallo around rather than trade him?  I sure wouldn't.  The same is true for the pitchers.  I would trade any of them who aren't pitching as well as a younger player (and I didn't want to extend them or was unable to extend them).  

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Are you 100% sure of that?  What if Larnach or Wallner or Julien are hitting the snot out of the ball by late July?  Would you keep Gallo around rather than trade him?  I sure wouldn't.  The same is true for the pitchers.  I would trade any of them who aren't pitching as well as a younger player (and I didn't want to extend them or was unable to extend them).  

They won't be contending if their pitchers aren't pitching well.... And if they aren't pitching well, or hitting well, whose trading for them?

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They won't be contending if their pitchers aren't pitching well.... And if they aren't pitching well, or hitting well, whose trading for them?

Okay.  Justify this.  What if Gray is having a normal season (for him) and Varland and SWR both are significantly outperforming Gray?  Still not interested in a trade?

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They won't be contending if their pitchers aren't pitching well.... And if they aren't pitching well, or hitting well, whose trading for them?

Seems your comments are obvious! You don’t trade guys that got you into contention and nobody wants guys that aren’t performing. Pitchers - Catchers - Outfielders……playing well, we keep you.

It seems odd to me that the discussions about moving veterans at the deadline in these forums are assumed to be like trading guys in a fantasy league. It’s not easy to make trades…..particularly for guys your team wants to trade!

Teams that aren’t competitive trade assets to build up young/cheap players for their future. Teams that are in the mix trade young guys/prospects for players that may put them over the hump. We don’t need more prospects other than pitchers……..Personally, I see us being competitive in late July & our only potential need being a bullpen arm. We aren’t trading for everyday players in the middle of the season. We have a substantial pipeline of guys.

Gallo will have to hit 40 HR’s for the Twins to risk giving him a QO. They’d be better off extending him 3 years at $16M a year….never thought I’d say that about Gallo but 40 HR’s is pretty high value. If he wants to leave - great!

Nobody is paying Kenta $20M plus!!!! If he pitches well - which doesn’t mean he’s dominant - offer him a couple years at $10.5M/yr. Great depth guy if he’s healthy.

If Gray has a good year he’s gone. QO him if he has ERA under 3.40 - double digit wins. He’ll need that to get someone to pursue him for multi-year deal.

Mahle…..silly to QO him if he isn’t pitching well since he’ll take the $20M (overpaid) and use it as an audition year to get a FA deal for ‘25……If he does pitch well, he’s healthy……worth a 3 year $23/yr deal offered in July.

Extending Mahle 3 yrs. and López 2 yrs. during the year this year makes great sense. Those 2 with Ryan & Paddack and a couple of our young guys & we’re good through ‘26.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Okay.  Justify this.  What if Gray is having a normal season (for him) and Varland and SWR both are significantly outperforming Gray?  Still not interested in a trade?

What position do we trade for, other than pitching at the deadline? Where are our everyday player holes? How many Mark Bellangers or Ernie Banks do we need? We have CC for 6 years and 4-5 SS prospects behind him. We have a couple 2B prospects. We have Kiriloff - Julien - Miranda at 1B. Gordon - Larnach - Buxton - Martin - Rodriguez Walner for young OF options, among others.

We gotta be out of it and Gray pitching well for teams to be interested in him & Twins to be interested.

I don’t see a scenario where Gray is pitching regularly and 2 other rookies that are now #7 & #8 in our starting pitching rotation are shoving Gray out the door.

Anything is possible. Trading a good veteran pitcher for hopefully good prospect pitching is a risky thing.