Rumor: Twins have talked to Marlins about Pablo Lopez

[CoasterProductions]

The Twins talked to the Marlins about Pablo Lopez. Some of the other names mentioned were Max Kepler and Luis Arraez, however the Twins do not want to part ways with Arraez.

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[Richie the Rally Goat]

Link/source?

[August J Gloop]

It can barely be believed that Max would have been the Marlins 3rd best (OPS+) hitter last year. The Twins should be offering a little 'instant offense' package of Garlick, Kep, Gordon and Arraez. They could get  Luzardo and one of Cabrera, Rogers or Lopez.

That would be a pretty good deal for them, as they clearly don't have the cash to bring in decent hitters, and just sent away another contributor.  The Twins would probably have to pick up most of the salary on that, but it could work. Miami might want to get a prospect, then they can't have Gordon.

[Brad.dahlen]

Lopez would be the most productive pitcher in 2023 should the Twins land him. Make this deal happen. Avisial Garcia is a RH outfield bat you could add onto this deal to fill another need. 

[DJL44]

Arraez for Lopez is a steal for the Twins. The Twins will have a much easier time finding a 1B who can replace Arraez than a P as good as Lopez.

[MMMordabito]

Click bait.  Old news from early December.  Link a source, if you have something new.

[I wish the twins were good]

53 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

It can barely be believed that Max would have been the Marlins 3rd best (OPS+) hitter last year. The Twins should be offering a little 'instant offense' package of Garlick, Kep, Gordon and Arraez. They could get  Luzardo and one of Cabrera, Rogers or Lopez.

That would be a pretty good deal for them, as they clearly don't have the cash to bring in decent hitters, and just sent away another contributor.  The Twins would probably have to pick up most of the salary on that, but it could work. Miami might want to get a prospect, then they can't have Gordon.

This is... not happening, even if they pay Kepler's salary. There's no way they are getting Luzardo and Lopez. The four players you mentioned for Lopez straight up would be about even though.

 

[Steve Lein]

36 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Arraez for Lopez is a steal for the Twins. The Twins will have a much easier time finding a 1B who can replace Arraez than a P as good as Lopez.

I disagree... Lopez is the last of the supposedly available Miami pitchers I would want, especially for Luis Arraez. I started a whole thread on trading for Marlins pitching -> 

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Steve Lein

[I wish the twins were good]

5 minutes ago, I wish the twins were good said:

This is... not happening, even if they pay Kepler's salary. There's no way they are getting Luzardo and Lopez. The four players you mentioned for Lopez straight up would be about even though.

 

Luzardo for Arraez is also reasonable...

 

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

I disagree... Lopez is the last of the supposedly available Miami pitchers I would want, especially for Luis Arraez. I started a whole thread on trading for Marlins pitching -> 

That's more like changing the subject than disagreeing. I think they could find a replacement for Arraez easier than they can find a pitcher as good as Pablo Lopez. That has nothing to do with whether Lopez is the right pitcher to try to obtain. He is the name floated most often and I think he's the easiest to get.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, August J Gloop said:

It can barely be believed that Max would have been the Marlins 3rd best (OPS+) hitter last year. The Twins should be offering a little 'instant offense' package of Garlick, Kep, Gordon and Arraez. They could get  Luzardo and one of Cabrera, Rogers or Lopez.

That would be a pretty good deal for them, as they clearly don't have the cash to bring in decent hitters, and just sent away another contributor.  The Twins would probably have to pick up most of the salary on that, but it could work. Miami might want to get a prospect, then they can't have Gordon.

First, Marlins can have Garlick for free, as he has to pass waivers and they could put in a claim, so if they do not do that, why would they trade for him?  Second, why would they give up a good trade asset for Kepler, unless they plan to flip Kepler.  

People keep throwing Kepler name out there for pitching to teams that are most likely rebuilding or looking to load up on prospects, like Marlins would be doing if they are trading away pitching right now.  Arraez they may have interest in as he is still young and controllable and could help in next few years, but Kepler is of no help to them in what they would be looking for.  Now, if they think they are on the cusp of winning, then maybe they would be willing to take on someone like Kepler, but my guess they do not think they are there. Gordon may have value to them, as he is also young and controllable.

Can people stop floating Kepler to every team thinking everyone will want him for some of their pitching?  

[Guest]

re: Twins/Marlins trade talk

Robert Murray (FanSided): "I do fully expect the Marlins to trade one of their starters. They've had discussions with a bunch of different teams around the league. The Minnesota Twins are one of them. The Twins have talked to #Marlins about their pitching surplus. Everything I've gathered is that there's nothing close there. I know there was some speculation on Twitter last night about a certain package there - but no, that's not the case at all."

Speculation is fun, for sure. But Murray says there's nothing to this rumor, and he's proven to be one of the most reliable reporters when it comes to trades & signings.

Credit: The Baseball Insiders podcast (Robert Murray & Adam Weinrib)

 

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Trov said:

First, Marlins can have Garlick for free, as he has to pass waivers and they could put in a claim, so if they do not do that, why would they trade for him?  Second, why would they give up a good trade asset for Kepler, unless they plan to flip Kepler.  

People keep throwing Kepler name out there for pitching to teams that are most likely rebuilding or looking to load up on prospects, like Marlins would be doing if they are trading away pitching right now.  Arraez they may have interest in as he is still young and controllable and could help in next few years, but Kepler is of no help to them in what they would be looking for.  Now, if they think they are on the cusp of winning, then maybe they would be willing to take on someone like Kepler, but my guess they do not think they are there. Gordon may have value to them, as he is also young and controllable.

Can people stop floating Kepler to every team thinking everyone will want him for some of their pitching?  

I don't know where the league is at in terms of waiver claims made recently so don't know where the Marlins fit in on the NL side, but they're no better than 15th in line for Garlick. If they want him (not saying they do, but if they do) they have to decide if they're willing to risk the Twins not trading him before he even hits waivers, and then hope the 14 other AL teams don't want him either. They'd give up a trade asset for Kepler because he's better than most of their current outfielders.

The Marlins have no fewer than 8 MLB ready arms for their rotation. Alcantara, Cueto, Cabrera, Garrett, Lopez, Luzardo, Rogers, and Sanchez. And that's not counting Max Meyer who will miss most, if not all, of the season with TJ recovery. They have holes in their lineup. They play in a division with 3 teams who show no sign of being bad in the next 6 years. That means by the time they've run out of control on all of their 8/9 arms they'll still be in a division that's super hard to win. How slow do you believe they should be with trying to win? When will they be "on the cusp of winning?" 

I'm not suggesting the Marlins are tripping over themselves to get Kepler, but acting like he has no value to the Marlins is also too extreme. Jazz Chisolm and Jon Berti were the only players on the Marlins with more fWAR than Kepler last year (didn't look up bWAR). They had 6 guys with a better wRC+ than him. Only 2 of them even played 100 games last year. And only 1 of them had even 400 PAs. Jesus Aguilar lead their team in HRs...at 15. They had 5 guys even get to double digit HRs. 

I'm not suggesting the Marlins would trade any of their pitchers straight up for Kepler, but they're brutally awful on offense and have the deepest starting staff in baseball. Kepler would 100% make their offense better while also improving their defense. If Miami's not trying to win with this rotation they need to contract the team. Arraez would certainly be their preferred target from MN, but acting like Kepler wouldn't interest them at all feels extreme.

[Musk21]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know where the league is at in terms of waiver claims made recently so don't know where the Marlins fit in on the NL side, but they're no better than 15th in line for Garlick. If they want him (not saying they do, but if they do) they have to decide if they're willing to risk the Twins not trading him before he even hits waivers, and then hope the 14 other AL teams don't want him either. They'd give up a trade asset for Kepler because he's better than most of their current outfielders.

The Marlins have no fewer than 8 MLB ready arms for their rotation. Alcantara, Cueto, Cabrera, Garrett, Lopez, Luzardo, Rogers, and Sanchez. And that's not counting Max Meyer who will miss most, if not all, of the season with TJ recovery. They have holes in their lineup. They play in a division with 3 teams who show no sign of being bad in the next 6 years. That means by the time they've run out of control on all of their 8/9 arms they'll still be in a division that's super hard to win. How slow do you believe they should be with trying to win? When will they be "on the cusp of winning?" 

I'm not suggesting the Marlins are tripping over themselves to get Kepler, but acting like he has no value to the Marlins is also too extreme. Jazz Chisolm and Jon Berti were the only players on the Marlins with more fWAR than Kepler last year (didn't look up bWAR). They had 6 guys with a better wRC+ than him. Only 2 of them even played 100 games last year. And only 1 of them had even 400 PAs. Jesus Aguilar lead their team in HRs...at 15. They had 5 guys even get to double digit HRs. 

I'm not suggesting the Marlins would trade any of their pitchers straight up for Kepler, but they're brutally awful on offense and have the deepest starting staff in baseball. Kepler would 100% make their offense better while also improving their defense. If Miami's not trying to win with this rotation they need to contract the team. Arraez would certainly be their preferred target from MN, but acting like Kepler wouldn't interest them at all feels extreme.

Teams like the Marlins (or Pirates, A's, etc) are not going to trade young, controllable pitching assets for a 30 year old Max Kepler. Even if he's better than anything they currently have.  They'll trade those assets for young, controllable prospects like Wallner, Arraez, Larnach...

[JD-TWINS]

38 minutes ago, Trov said:

First, Marlins can have Garlick for free, as he has to pass waivers and they could put in a claim, so if they do not do that, why would they trade for him?  Second, why would they give up a good trade asset for Kepler, unless they plan to flip Kepler.  

People keep throwing Kepler name out there for pitching to teams that are most likely rebuilding or looking to load up on prospects, like Marlins would be doing if they are trading away pitching right now.  Arraez they may have interest in as he is still young and controllable and could help in next few years, but Kepler is of no help to them in what they would be looking for.  Now, if they think they are on the cusp of winning, then maybe they would be willing to take on someone like Kepler, but my guess they do not think they are there. Gordon may have value to them, as he is also young and controllable.

Can people stop floating Kepler to every team thinking everyone will want him for some of their pitching?  

IMO Kepler is the throw in piece we need to move and he stabilizes risk for the opposing GM. He’s an everyday starter with a great glove (if your organization needs that) and an upside as the shift is removed in ‘23. Still only 29 I believe.

Pagan is a similar piece that adds some upside with his stuff & potential based on his stuff. Lopez could fit into the mix as well with same upside as Pagan. “2022 All-Star” may help López’ worth??

Celestino is another guy that doesn’t fit with our glut of OF & with a weaker bat, may need some more seasoning to attain his ceiling.

Ober - Winder - Sands are guys we need to help balance a trade with do the other GM looks good!

Last, Martin or Walner to top off the trade & to bring the true upside for other GM future.

[tony&rodney]

Once again ... Arraez, Larnach, Martin, & Miller for Cabrera and Luzardo. Throw in Pagan.

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, Musk21 said:

Teams like the Marlins (or Pirates, A's, etc) are not going to trade young, controllable pitching assets for a 30 year old Max Kepler. Even if he's better than anything they currently have.  They'll trade those assets for young, controllable prospects like Wallner, Arraez, Larnach...

That's why I said they wouldn't do it for him straight up or anything. But the idea that he can't be part of a trade package, and they wouldn't find any value in him, is wrong. Especially when you're talking about Pablo Lopez who has no more control than Kepler does. They were willing to trade Lopez for Gleyber Torres last year (NY turned them down). Torres is younger than Kepler, but has no more control than Kepler. And hasn't really been much more productive than Kepler since 2018. Or even just since 2020 if you want to cut Kepler's 2019 season out. Torres is a better asset, but not dramatically so.

[Beast]

I mean, a career 3.77 FIP with 500+ innings at the age of 26….four of his 5 seasons are 58.2 innings, 111.1 innings, 57.1 innings, and 102.2 innings.  Last year 180.  Good strikeout numbers.

If we’re dealing some our MLB roster chaff, I’m in.  Arras’s, I’m in (not happening).  I don’t want to give up a top prospect here.  This doesn’t strike me as the guy to get us over the playoff hump.

Would love to have him, don’t get me wrong.  He makes the team better.  But, I’d like a little more if we are dipping into Lee, Rodriguez, etc. 

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That's more like changing the subject than disagreeing. I think they could find a replacement for Arraez easier than they can find a pitcher as good as Pablo Lopez. That has nothing to do with whether Lopez is the right pitcher to try to obtain. He is the name floated most often and I think he's the easiest to get.

If Lopez is so easy to get, give them Pagan, Martin and Gordon. Then we can sign another pitcher like Wacha. 

[Cris E]

They just sent out their SS and don't really have a good replacement on the roster.  Send Royce Lewis for a real return.  Correa has really changed his value to us, especially with Lee and Noah Miller on his heels. 

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

If Lopez is so easy to get, give them Pagan, Martin and Gordon. Then we can sign another pitcher like Wacha. 

Gordon and Pagan should be enough to get Lopez (assuming the Marlins believe in his 2022 breakout). Gordon straight up would probably be enough, but I just want Pagan to go away so I kept him in there.

[Fatbat]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Gordon and Pagan should be enough to get Lopez (assuming the Marlins believe in his 2022 breakout). Gordon straight up would probably be enough, but I just want Pagan to go away so I kept him in there.

Pagan has to added to any trade! Lol

[RJA]

3 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

I disagree... Lopez is the last of the supposedly available Miami pitchers I would want, especially for Luis Arraez. I started a whole thread on trading for Marlins pitching -> 

I agree 100%.  Lopez is the weakest option and only has two years of control.  I would want one of the young guys with more upside and more years of control.

[nicksaviking]

I don’t want Lopez, I want the other pitchers. But I’d trade Kepler for about any useful pitcher so if the other pieces the Twins send aren’t too important, I guess go ahead and get him.
 

Hopefully the Twins saying they don’t want to trade Arraez is their initial ploy to pivot talks from Lopez to the other arms.

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don’t want Lopez, I want the other pitchers. But I’d trade Kepler for about any useful pitcher so if the other pieces the Twins send aren’t too important, I guess go ahead and get him.
 

Hopefully the Twins saying they don’t want to trade Arraez is their initial ploy to pivot talks from Lopez to the other arms.

 

Thank you. I'm glad some of these posters are not the GM. I'm not saying I wouldn't want Lopez. But not for the teams top prospects. No. Not for Arraez, he's a batting champion. Now, Edward Cabrera. That's who you discuss bigger names for.

[DocBauer]

I've been a fan of Kepler. I think it's time for both sides to part ways, a fresh start for Max, and greater opportunity for the young guys to shine. (provided the injury curse is finally over!). But Kepler DOES have value for any team. Miami might like him as PART of a package to raise their floor both offensively and defensively. But he'd only be the #2 or #3 piece for a top young SP with control. 

Max might be perfect for a team that believes that they can compete in 2023 but may be unsettled in the OF. I think that's part of the reason there have been on again and off again rumors that the Yankees might be interested. 

Could Kepler help bring in a pitcher? Yes. Is he more likely to bring in a quality RP? Yes. His best value, if he is indeed traded, is a solid young AA level player or two to replace what the Twins trade from the system to someone else to acquire said hypothetical pitcher. Trade prospects, bring another solid 1 or 2 back. 

[darin617]

I know the price would be higher but why not trade for a pitcher with more than 2 years of team control?

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

They just sent out their SS and don't really have a good replacement on the roster.  Send Royce Lewis for a real return.  Correa has really changed his value to us, especially with Lee and Noah Miller on his heels. 

Noah Miller has zero impact on current major league roster decisions. He just turned 20 a couple of months ago, and his single-A batting record was a BA in the low .200s with minimal power. Don't know what the scouting reports are on his progress with the glove but he's a long way away. That doesn't mean he isn't a good prospect.

[AlwaysinModeration]

1 hour ago, darin617 said:

I know the price would be higher but why not trade for a pitcher with more than 2 years of team control?

If the Twins trade for Pablo López, he might stay for more than two years.

[specialiststeve]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Gordon and Pagan should be enough to get Lopez (assuming the Marlins believe in his 2022 breakout). Gordon straight up would probably be enough, but I just want Pagan to go away so I kept him in there.

Not even in the ballpark for Lopez....