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Posted

In recent years, Luis Arraez has become a fan favorite, but injuries have kept him from reaching his full potential. What can his role be in 2022 and beyond?

Arraez has yet to accumulate more than 500 plate appearances in any season, but he has undoubtedly left his mark on the roster. Last season, he hit .294/.357/.376 (.733) while also being on the injured list multiple times. According to Baseball-Reference, Arraez ranked third on the team in WAR behind Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco. While some fans are clamoring for him to take over a starting role with the club, his future role is in question. 

Starting Second Baseman
If Minnesota doesn’t add a veteran second baseman, Arraez must serve as the team’s starting second baseman. Polanco shifting back to a full-time shortstop role might not be the best solution for the team, even if Royce Lewis is waiting in the wings. Last season, Polanco won the team’s MVP award after shifting to second base and posting a 125 OPS+. These defensive shifts helped Polanco and his ailing ankles stay on the field and perform at a high level. 

Making Arraez the starting second baseman doesn’t guarantee that he will stay healthy for an entire season. His knees are bad, and they will cause him to miss multiple games throughout the remainder of his career. Also, a Polanco-Arraez middle infield combo is a defensive liability. Arraez can handle second base for short stints, but he shouldn’t be the team’s everyday second baseman unless Polanco suffers an injury. 

Continue in Utility Role
When the Twins signed Andrelton Simmons last winter, the Twins moved Arraez to a utility role. He played 25 games or more in left field, third base, and second base, and he made some dramatic improvements. His defense at third base ranked him among the league’s best, so that is a spot where he can get more playing time in 2022. However, Arraez’s defensive flaws make it tough for him to fulfill a true utility role. 

Throughout the 2021 campaign, the Twins lost faith in Arraez’s ability to play in the outfield. After July, he never made a start in the outfield and only logged three total innings in left field. His Range Runs Above Average was negative in left field even though his UZR and Defensive Runs Saved were positive. It will be interesting to see if the Twins give Arraez a second chance to prove he can be an outfield fill-in option. 

Trade Bait
Minnesota needs starting pitching, and one way that is acquired is by dealing established big-league players like Arraez. He may be at the peak of his trade value as he is just entering arbitration as a Super-Two player, and he is under team control through 2025. Arraez has shown an ability to get on base, and he can frustrate pitchers with his ability to fight off pitches and extend at-bats. Will other teams value his potential as he enters the prime of his career?

Other teams likely see the same flaws in Arraez that have held true during his big-league career. His injury history is tough to ignore, as he missed 28 out of 60 games in 2020 and played through injuries throughout the 2021 season. When it comes to sprint speed, he has ranked in the 52nd percentile or lower in all three big-league seasons. Defensively, Arraez needs more time to prove his improvements at third base can continue throughout an entire season. 

What role do you think Arraez will fill in 2022? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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Posted

Agree with almost everything, Cody.  And the truth is we don't have a clue where Arraez will be playing this year, either on the field with the Twins or even if he is still with the Twins.  Personally, I love how he plays the game and want him to be with the Twins, at least until Martin AND Julien prove they are his equals.

The one point I question deals with Polanco.  Read so many comments that tie his hitting last year to being healthy and his health to the move to second base.  Will agree that his hitting was likely the result of being healthy.  But, we really don't know if his health had anything to do with the move to second, it may have been that the second ankle surgery finally fixed his problem and he would be fine, health wise, at short.

 

Posted

I love Arraezs' bat and what he brings to the lineup.  But, I also believe that he may be our best trade chip as far as his value and also the redundancy he brings to the Twins.  If we can find a good trade partner for a reliable starting pitcher, I'm all in on making a deal.  We will probably have to throw in more with possibly a prospect or two, but I would rather it not be anyone in the top 20, certainly not our top 10.

Posted

Does anyone know what his knee problems are? Polanco had ankle problems, but now everyone seems to think they're fixed as long as he stays at 2B. If we don't know what Arraez's knee problems are why do we assume they'll always be bad and/or get worse? Maybe others know what the issue is so that sentiment is based on knowing he has a degenerative disorder or something, but I don't recall seeing anything about it so I'm not ready to write his knees off until I know what causes the pain.

If the knee issue is degenerative he may not be able to pass a new team's physical and isn't tradable. But I'll assume he could pass the physical. What do people think the Twins could actually get in return for a no power 3B/2B with bad knees? I'm certainly not trading anything close to a top of the rotation piece for that player if I'm another team. If Arraez can't be the headliner in a deal for a #1 or 2 pitcher then I don't see the value in trading him. If you're still going to have to give up a top 10 prospect plus another top 15 or 20 guy on top of Arraez I want way more control than any of the As or Reds pitchers people are clamoring for. Arraez is most definitely a valuable big league hitter, but his best position is 3B or DH, and not many teams are going to be willing to trade a legit big league pitcher for a package centered around a player with his profile. At least I wouldn't think so. It only takes one team, though.

I also don't see him as redundant. The Twins have 5 guys I trust to be above average bats if healthy (JD, Polanco, Garver, Buxton, Arraez). The problem with all 5 of them is the "if healthy" part. I'm not betting my season on any of their health (maybe Polanco). I believe Kepler will continue to be his usual self and am happy with him in the 7-8-9 holes. Same with Sano. If either of them is hitting 6th I'm still ok. Miranda has never seen a major league pitch. I'm a huge believer in Kirilloff, but can he stay healthy? Wrists are killer for hitters. Jeffers is a bottom 3rd of the lineup guy. We don't even have a SS to discuss yet. Larnach needs more AAA time. Celestino does, too. I don't believe in Rooker at all, and he doesn't play defense anywhere. I'm a huge believer in Lewis, but he hasn't played in 2 years so I'm not betting 2022 on him blindly. Gordon is big league filler. Martin may be the guy to push Arraez out and make him redundant, but if he's primarily a LF then he doesn't push Arraez out of his 3B/2B/DH role. Yes, the Twins need pitching, but let's not pretend trading Arraez isn't a huge blow to the lineup that isn't as deep as we like to think with proven talent.

Posted

Echoing chpettit19 that Arraez has real value and it's much easier to say "move him and we'll be just fine" and it's another thing to actually make that happen. He fills a very different skill set as a batter that this team sorely lacks. And right now, his best, eventual replacement options on the roster are probably a season away. 

But if moving him makes good sense to bring in a quality SP as part of a deal, I get it and am not saying no. I do question Arraez AND a pair of top 10 prospects though.

If with the Twins, I would absolutely continue to work with him in LF. I e seen worse, and he has room to be better. Being able to come off the bench and play 3 spots instead of 2 as well as DH just makes him that much easier to fit in the lineup.

And I'd have him batting #1, working counts, and getting OB almost every single day.

Posted
1 hour ago, blindeke said:

Is there room for both him and Gordon on the roster?

Yes. They are very different ballplayers at this point. Arraez is the better hitter, by quite a lot at this point, and the OB machine. Gordon brings a speed element we have little of, can cover SS at least so-so, and seems to play a passable CF.

And I think it's dangerous to not have 2 utility types. The issue with keeping both of them is maybe not having room for Miranda until someone gets hurt.

Posted
1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I raised this question in another post - what value do 2B have now?  I think that it is the lowest ranked position in defense.  I am afraid that Arraez does not have much value to anyone but the Twins. 

Yep. The time to have traded him was 2019. We won’t get much for him and he would have to go in a package if we want a good return

Posted
41 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Does anyone know what his knee problems are?...

Arraez primarily had issues with inflammation and fluid build up after ACL surgery on a knee. In addition, last year, Arraez was dealing with knee tendonitis in his other knee. Arraez was told by Twins trainers and medical staff that strengthening his lower body and slimming up could allievate his issues from my understanding.

It's straightforward PT protocol for those types of knee pain issues across pretty much any activity. Strengthen the surrounding muscle to relieve stress on the joint and trim some excess weight. It has the added benefit of increasing mobility.

It remains to be seen how much work Arraez has put into it, but if Arraez does commit himself, it could have a huge payday behind it. 

Posted

Good question Cody.  I think there are quite a few variables in play.

1) Do they get a great offer for Arraez?  I think that might trump everything.

2) How they intend to approach 2022.  If it's all about retooling, they may want to give Martin that role ASAP.

3) Do they like Martin at a specific position or do they like him in a super utility role?

4) Is there a shuffle that allows Miranda take over at 3B sooner than later?  Donaldson or Sano traded.

5) Even their belief in Lewis at SS could influence what they do with Arraez.  Lewis could end up at 3B or Super Utility.

Unless #1 happens, I think he is with us until at least the 2022 deadline when some of these questions have more clarity.

Posted

Arraez is fine at 3B and can fill in if needed at 2B or DH. The experiment in LF is over; Arraez cannot play in the outfield. I'm hoping Luis wins a few batting championships but there are playing time issues for him with Minnesota as the roster sits today. JD, JP, and Sano are in front of him with Miranda ready. That is 5 players for 3 (possibly 4) positions. Perhaps an injury or trade opens a regular position for Arraez.

Posted

I wouldn't be in a hurry to trade Arraez as there isn't anyone who can replace him just yet.  The other issue is I don't see that many teams that would need his services at least at 2nd base and his OPS isn't a logical fit for 3rd base IMO.  Some teams that could use him are still rebuilding and teams at the top already have players just as good or better than Arraez.  If you squint maybe the Mariners or a couple of other teams but not many would consider him an upgrade, but for the most part I just don't see high demand for him.

The main issue is his OPS is not spectacular.  Yes he is a good OnBase guy but he has little power and is not a threat to steal bases.  He has limited utility.  If you are going to trade a player like that it seems like the deadline would extract the most value.  Some team with an injured 2nd or 3rd baseman who see's his value might be willing to overpay if desperate enough.

Still Arraez has quite a bit of value to the Twins until one of Steer, Jullien, Miranda, or Martin look like like they are ready for primetime.  Until the Twins literally have someone ready I would hang onto him unless the offer was just too good to pass up.

Posted
3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I raised this question in another post - what value do 2B have now?  I think that it is the lowest ranked position in defense.  I am afraid that Arraez does not have much value to anyone but the Twins. 

I think a player that can hit around .300 with a good on-base % has value to a lot of teams; Arraez is passable at 2B & 3B and while he doesn't have the power to traditionally DH...that OBP with a high BA makes him attractive. I'd say the biggest concern about him playing LF is more about his knees than his actual defense out there. He can pass a physical, but he looks like he's 30 years older walking to the plate some times.

He's a reasonable trade option for several reasons: as a proven MLB player who is still under team control, he's got immediate value to a wide variety of teams, not just tankers looking for prospects, but contenders as well. He'd be a great fit as a utility INF who makes a lot of starts because of his stick. From a Twins perspective, they have MLB players at 2B & 3B (his best positions), along with prospects whose best positions look like they might be 2B, 3B, or LF. Dealing Arraez is dealing from a position of strength, so you have to consider it.

I think he's the guy on the MLB roster most likely to get dealt, but there's still room for him to stick on the roster. Between DH, 3B (with Donaldson needing regular rest and being a high injury risk), backing up Polanco, and even slipping out of LF gives him enough ABs. I'd listen to offers on him, and I'd consider proposing him in trade packages for pitching, but I'm not giving him away. I like Arraez a great deal, but I'm not starting him ahead of Polanco or Donaldson, and Miranda and Martin are on their way to surpass him. 

Posted
Just now, jmlease1 said:

I think a player that can hit around .300 with a good on-base % has value to a lot of teams; Arraez is passable at 2B & 3B and while he doesn't have the power to traditionally DH...that OBP with a high BA makes him attractive. I'd say the biggest concern about him playing LF is more about his knees than his actual defense out there. He can pass a physical, but he looks like he's 30 years older walking to the plate some times.

He's a reasonable trade option for several reasons: as a proven MLB player who is still under team control, he's got immediate value to a wide variety of teams, not just tankers looking for prospects, but contenders as well. He'd be a great fit as a utility INF who makes a lot of starts because of his stick. From a Twins perspective, they have MLB players at 2B & 3B (his best positions), along with prospects whose best positions look like they might be 2B, 3B, or LF. Dealing Arraez is dealing from a position of strength, so you have to consider it.

I think he's the guy on the MLB roster most likely to get dealt, but there's still room for him to stick on the roster. Between DH, 3B (with Donaldson needing regular rest and being a high injury risk), backing up Polanco, and even slipping out of LF gives him enough ABs. I'd listen to offers on him, and I'd consider proposing him in trade packages for pitching, but I'm not giving him away. I like Arraez a great deal, but I'm not starting him ahead of Polanco or Donaldson, and Miranda and Martin are on their way to surpass him. 

I am a big fan of Arraez, but recent posts have caused me to question his trade value. 

Posted
5 hours ago, roger said:

Agree with almost everything, Cody.  And the truth is we don't have a clue where Arraez will be playing this year, either on the field with the Twins or even if he is still with the Twins.  Personally, I love how he plays the game and want him to be with the Twins, at least until Martin AND Julien prove they are his equals.

The one point I question deals with Polanco.  Read so many comments that tie his hitting last year to being healthy and his health to the move to second base.  Will agree that his hitting was likely the result of being healthy.  But, we really don't know if his health had anything to do with the move to second, it may have been that the second ankle surgery finally fixed his problem and he would be fine, health wise, at short.

 

True that we don't know if his health had anything to do with playing 2B but we do know that he was productive there.  Again, we don't for sure know the cause and effect.  I'd still love to leave him there and not mess with one of the few things that clicked last year. 

Posted

Left-field and shortstop are still open. Even if the Twins sign a shortstop, and have Rooker play left...him and Gordon are pegged as the supersubs who can play infield and outfield. A n ice luxury to have.

Posted
3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I raised this question in another post - what value do 2B have now?  I think that it is the lowest ranked position in defense.  I am afraid that Arraez does not have much value to anyone but the Twins. 

It's entertaining to watch Arraez ABs and back in 2019 there was a lot of hype surrounding that. 2020 Rosenthal wisely recommended to switch Polanco to 2nd and trade Arraez. FO under pressure switched Polanco that proved very beneficial but hung unto Arraez at his peak value. His value has been sliding but there's still some hype and there are some teams that need a 2B. 

I'm not anti Arraez, I'm pro front line pitching. We need front line pitching desperately not a 0 range 2B. I disagree with you Mike that he's more valuable to another FO that needs a 2B which like the hype than us.

Posted

This article fails to mention his age, which is a big detail.

It's an age old question: will he get better at defense? Koskie and Morneau, for example, were butchers at first but became above average. Sano...has not. And maybe that's not relevant since these examples are all on the corners.

And did the Twins give up on him, or was he not playing OF because Donaldson was iffy (moved to DH for preservation) and they had the most depth with natural OFers?

I don't have the answers to any of these questions.

But I like him at 2B if he can play 130 games/yr. It sounds like his role, and longevity, will depend on his conditioning.

Posted

In the era of shifting is team defense ranking more valuable than the individual pieces. The Twins have had one year in the last three where their defense as a team finished in the top half whether by DRS or UZR and that was 2020 when they ranked 8th and 10th. Last year they ranked 28th by UZR and 12th by DRS. It was 25 and 23 in 2019.

In 2020 the most common middle infield was Arraez at 2B and Polanco at SS. Maybe the best place is 2B.

Posted
5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I raised this question in another post - what value do 2B have now?  I think that it is the lowest ranked position in defense.  I am afraid that Arraez does not have much value to anyone but the Twins. 

I think this is a great question. IMO, 2B has gone through a transformation that occurred between 15-20yrs ago at SS, and CF to a degree. I'm speaking of watching baseball since the 70's, but I think my thoughts go back decades before. 

When we think about 2B "back in the day", it was a defensive position for someone who couldn't stick at SS. But the game back then was more station to station and bunting, hit and run, stolen bases, etc. Of course, SS has always been a defense first position. For decades, those spots were defense, and with little exception, you had light hitters you hoped had speed, or contact ability to move runners, etc.  But over time, teams began putting their best athlete more and more at SS. And I'm sure advancements in training had an affect as well. Suddenly you began to see the A-Rods, Jeter's, etc, make SS an offensive position with these tremendous athletes. But 2B became a similar version. Much like an OF bat you can't put in RF or CF, you place them in LF. 

Of course there are exceptions. I grew up seeing Wilfong and Randal and others playing for the Twins at 2B. But it was a LONG time between Carew and Knoblauch! And then a number of years before Dozier. And I'm NOT saying your 2B can't be good defensively, but it has evolved in to a legitimate offensive position. Polanco, Altuve and others are current examples.

I believe 2B has perhaps even more value in today's game than it used to because you can place a great bat there that simply can't play SS to the level you want defensively. It's not "hiding" a bat...but it kinda is in a way. 

Now, what VALUE any player has on a team at ANY position is still up to the team to decide. I mentioned CF briefly before. I never saw Mays play. But I watched Griffey, Puckett and others almost re-define the position from a fast guy who could field to a guy who could hit and bring power. So what's really changed is "old fashioned" roster construction. There used to be certain precepts of how you built a lineup and where you expected your offense to come from. And I know this reference is dated, but Boggs was a leadoff hitter at 3B for Boston for years instead of being a middle of the order bat. Again a dated reference, but Downing was a simi,similar, no speed leadoff hitter for the Angels who could hit, get OB, and provide power. These were precursors for Beane and his Moneyball approach that has continued to re-shape the modern game.

This is also why I've stated previously that if you have hitting and power across your lineup from WHATEVER positions, does your DH HAVE to be a power hitting RBI entity? How about a guy who sets the table? So all of this is not necessarily to pump up the value of Arraez directly, but to address your question about 2B. It's as valuable as any other lineup spot, a place where you can place a tremendous bat, but every teams lineup construction is different.

Posted
4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Arraez primarily had issues with inflammation and fluid build up after ACL surgery on a knee. In addition, last year, Arraez was dealing with knee tendonitis in his other knee. Arraez was told by Twins trainers and medical staff that strengthening his lower body and slimming up could allievate his issues from my understanding.

It's straightforward PT protocol for those types of knee pain issues across pretty much any activity. Strengthen the surrounding muscle to relieve stress on the joint and trim some excess weight. It has the added benefit of increasing mobility.

It remains to be seen how much work Arraez has put into it, but if Arraez does commit himself, it could have a huge payday behind it. 

I just wanted to add that any work to strengthen his lower half to strengthen joints, legs, etc, could also shift his overall strength index. Simply, by building his body a bit better, he might also provide more "oomph" in his contact which could lead to more XB pop/power, without changing his swing/approach.

Posted
3 hours ago, Dman said:

I wouldn't be in a hurry to trade Arraez as there isn't anyone who can replace him just yet.  The other issue is I don't see that many teams that would need his services at least at 2nd base and his OPS isn't a logical fit for 3rd base IMO.  Some teams that could use him are still rebuilding and teams at the top already have players just as good or better than Arraez.  If you squint maybe the Mariners or a couple of other teams but not many would consider him an upgrade, but for the most part I just don't see high demand for him.

The main issue is his OPS is not spectacular.  Yes he is a good OnBase guy but he has little power and is not a threat to steal bases.  He has limited utility.  If you are going to trade a player like that it seems like the deadline would extract the most value.  Some team with an injured 2nd or 3rd baseman who see's his value might be willing to overpay if desperate enough.

Still Arraez has quite a bit of value to the Twins until one of Steer, Jullien, Miranda, or Martin look like like they are ready for primetime.  Until the Twins literally have someone ready I would hang onto him unless the offer was just too good to pass up.

100%!

I could see, kinda hope, that Julian will be an even better version of him in a year or so.

And I just spent time on 2 different posts speaking about the actual value of a 2B and how different teams may construct their lineup and the value of different hitters in different spots,, as well as if Arraez spent time strengthening his lower half how it might lead to better health and maybe even additional pop/power even without changing his approach. BUT,  I find it a bit ironic with all that has been said, and possible trade "speculation" in regard to the A's, Arraez would seem to be a perfect Moneyball acquisition for them as PART of a deal. I'm in no hurry to move him. I think we see the same value he presents to the Twins at this time. Just interesting that he seems to be a fit if such a trade were to take place.

Posted
1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I never saw Mays play. But I watched Griffey, Puckett and others almost re-define the position from a fast guy who could field to a guy who could hit and bring power.

I get what you are saying about lineup construction and agree. For example, perhaps Martin will be a really good corner outfielder despite less than optimal power. The Twins should be focused on using all nine spots in their order to maximize production and maybe using Arraez as a DH instead of Sano will be the best decision.  I do think that teams have always tried to do that though. The shifting of players to keep a solid defense in the field while maintaining the most destructive batting order is a constant discussion. Harmon Killebrew, for one, was shifted around to a number of positions because his bat played anywhere but his defense was not  gold glove worthy. This has been done for many decades. Yogi Berra is another example. Pete Rose too.

I'm just totally confused why you used Mays and CF though as an example. Everyone loved Griffey and Puckett, but there was literally nothing, absolutely nothing that either of them could ever do nearly as well as Willie Mays: hit, run, field, throw, power, talk, or smile. I'm not nostalgic in any fashion but just confused at the example. 

Posted
1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

...I'm just totally confused why you used Mays and CF though as an example. Everyone loved Griffey and Puckett, but there was literally nothing, absolutely nothing that either of them could ever do nearly as well as Willie Mays: hit, run, field, throw, power, talk, or smile. I'm not nostalgic in any fashion but just confused at the example. 

Ken Griffey, Jr. was arguably just as good as Willie Mays for their age 20-29 years. After that, injuries piled up and Griffey, Jr. faded while Mays got even better in his early 30s and remained in his prime production for 6 years longer than Griffey, Jr. One of the following is Willie Mays and one is Ken Griffey, Jr. a20-29 seasons.

  • .302/.384/.581 OPS .965, OPS+ 152,  67.5 bWAR
  • .317/.390/.585 OPS .975, OPS+ 158,  68.1 bWAR

There's no doubt Mays had the superior career, but in terms in how well they were loved and in talent and production before injuries, arguing Mays and Griffey, Jr. are in different leagues isn't reasonable, IMHO.

Posted

Getting back to Arraez. His ceiling has been shown. He is a good player but not potentially great. That does not get you a front line starter. In any trade proposal be almost becomes a Brian Duensing bit. 

Posted

Arraez is kinda like a square peg in a round peg. A on base machine but lacks skills & speed to generate much more. I prefer trading him, Larnach & a prospect (s) for a starting pitcher like Montas, Bassitt or Manaea from the “A’s”and Chapman 3b,  if not acommplishable then S. Gray from the “Reds. It’s hard to figure out what the Rays,. Padres, will do with their pitchers. There maybe a couple of sleepers in FA such Rodan, Boyd or Pineda for the #5 starter. 

This would may leave room in the budget to sign FA Story  at shortstop to a 5 yr. $23m contract. Sano~ trade valve may improve now as NL goes with a DH.

Posted
13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's entertaining to watch Arraez ABs and back in 2019 there was a lot of hype surrounding that. 2020 Rosenthal wisely recommended to switch Polanco to 2nd and trade Arraez. FO under pressure switched Polanco that proved very beneficial but hung unto Arraez at his peak value. His value has been sliding but there's still some hype and there are some teams that need a 2B. 

I'm not anti Arraez, I'm pro front line pitching. We need front line pitching desperately not a 0 range 2B. I disagree with you Mike that he's more valuable to another FO that needs a 2B which like the hype than us.

My speculation is that 2B has become the bottom of the fielding positions and Arraez is not really good there.  His bat plays, but where to play him is the issue.  What are the teams that need a 2B?  And what is the real return.  This discussion is difficult because I have been a real fan of Luis.  I like a bat that is under control and I do not need 9 HR hitters in the lineup at the same time.  Now I see that we want to make sure we get more power from Martin and I remember how they were going to fix Buxton's swing for the first three years he was with us.  There are many aspects to Arraez and his tenure with us, but I also worry about his knees.

Posted
16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Arraez primarily had issues with inflammation and fluid build up after ACL surgery on a knee. In addition, last year, Arraez was dealing with knee tendonitis in his other knee. Arraez was told by Twins trainers and medical staff that strengthening his lower body and slimming up could allievate his issues from my understanding.

It's straightforward PT protocol for those types of knee pain issues across pretty much any activity. Strengthen the surrounding muscle to relieve stress on the joint and trim some excess weight. It has the added benefit of increasing mobility.

It remains to be seen how much work Arraez has put into it, but if Arraez does commit himself, it could have a huge payday behind it. 

Good assessment. Hope Arraez does the work and it helps him. 

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