Hey Rocco - did you hear this?

[mikelink45]

Last night (Wednesday) Framber Valdez went 8 innings in a playoff game.  8!!!!  Why?  Ask Dusty Baker, "If a guys dealing you let him keep dealing.  Today it was in the hands of Framber Valdez."   We have seen that Dusty can win and use bullpen games and pitchers, but he also knows the value of letting a pitcher pitch.  Please put this statement on you office wall - starters are supposed to go more than 4 innings. 

[cHawk]

The Twins haven’t had SP Performances where they can really go more than 4-5 innings this year

[Andrew Mahlke]

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Last night (Wednesday) Framber Valdez went 8 innings in a playoff game.  8!!!!  Why?  Ask Dusty Baker, "If a guys dealing you let him keep dealing.  Today it was in the hands of Framber Valdez."   We have seen that Dusty can win and use bullpen games and pitchers, but he also knows the value of letting a pitcher pitch.  Please put this statement on you office wall - starters are supposed to go more than 4 innings. 

To be able to have guys go 7-8 innings, you first need pitchers who are able to go this long and still be effective. To solve the problem of Rocco pulling guys soon we need to get arms who are able to go 3 times through the order while still being effective

[chpettit19]

Feels like the definition of small sample size here. 

Innings by Astros starter during playoff games 2021: 6.2, 4.1 (Valdez himself!), 2.2 (not a bullpen game, Luis Garcia was the starter and had made 28 starts this year), 4, 2.2 (Valdez again!), 1 (again, not a bullpen game, Luis Garcia was just really bad again they then turned to Odo who only got them through the 5th), 1.2 (not a bullpen game, Urquidy just sucked), 1.1 (still not a bullpen game, Grienke just walked everyone), finally we get to Valdez going 8.

That's an average of 3.1 innings per start. All of which were started by legit starters. Without that 8 inning start they've averaged less than 3 innings a start from their starters this postseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, if only everyone was more like Dusty Baker with his immaculate postseason record. Step aside Cora, Hinch, and Roberts, Dusty Baker's on the job.

 

 

[mikelink45]

17 minutes ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

To be able to have guys go 7-8 innings, you first need pitchers who are able to go this long and still be effective. To solve the problem of Rocco pulling guys soon we need to get arms who are able to go 3 times through the order while still being effective

We have to develop them to pitch longer.  I watched Ober wanting to go on longer, but Rocco uses his own rules and that does not mean looking, observing and challenging the pitcher.  It is his list of rules that counts. 

[mikelink45]

26 minutes ago, cHawk said:

The Twins haven’t had SP Performances where they can really go more than 4-5 innings this year

Is it the pitchers or the manager.  To go further you have to be allowed to work through challenges and increase your stamina.

[cHawk]

2 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Is it the pitchers or the manager.  To go further you have to be allowed to work through challenges and increase your stamina.

It’s the pitchers. Most of them simply weren’t good pitchers (for the Twins).

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

We have to develop them to pitch longer.  I watched Ober wanting to go on longer, but Rocco uses his own rules and that does not mean looking, observing and challenging the pitcher.  It is his list of rules that counts. 

Ober didn't pitch last year and never topped 78.2 innings in his professional career because of injuries. His max was 106 back in 2014 when he was a freshman in college. He's a terrible example for your point.

 

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Is it the pitchers or the manager.  To go further you have to be allowed to work through challenges and increase your stamina.

Jose Berrios was second in the AL in innings pitched this year. He didn't get there by pitching 14 innings a game for the Jays. When pitchers are throwing well Rocco lets them go.

[Squirrel]

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

We have to develop them to pitch longer.  I watched Ober wanting to go on longer, but Rocco uses his own rules and that does not mean looking, observing and challenging the pitcher.  It is his list of rules that counts. 

You watched Ober wanting to go longer? Based on what? Ober's situation was explained over and over and over again on this site, and Ober himself said he was fine with how he was handled this past season. This isn't a Rocco decision alone, this is an organizational philosophy, and it is not unique to the Twins. 

[Doctor Gast]

I agree you have to have pitchers that are able to go more than 5 innings. We traded away the only pitcher that could do that. I agree with Mike that a pitcher needs to have endurance built up, but they also have to have the stuff to keep the batter guessing after 3x around and the fire to go after the batters.

Everyone was up in the air about Snell last year that he was pulled early. After he was traded to SD they thought he'd pitched 5+ innings every outing and be an undisputed ace. That didn't happen, one game he was pulled in the 2nd.

During the regular season you have a feeling about your pitchers and in the PS if the pitcher has  the fire & the stuff you go with him as long as you can.

[Squirrel]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Ober didn't pitch last year and never topped 78.2 innings in his professional career because of injuries. His max was 106 back in 2014 when he was a freshman in college. He's a terrible example for your point.

1000x this

[farmerguychris]

I think its old school (Blyleven) kind of thinking to require your starters to go that deep into games.  Analytics have proven that the majority of pitchers really begin to fail the 3rd time thru a line-up.  Follow the science, have a quality bullpen and win more games.  

[Thegrin]

Throw out 2021.  Pitching decisions were most often made under unique conditions.  2022 will be a different season. Starters should be trying to get "Well Pitched Games" of 6 or more innings with 3 ER or less. If a pitcher has a stress free 5th or 6th (or 7th or 8th) inning, Rocco should leave him in and let him keep dealing.  By my calculations, if we have 5 of this type of starter, the Twins will be back in the playoffs.

[big dog]

I think Jax pitched way too long into games, myself. One or two innings would have been better.

[jmlease1]

Just out of curiosity...why is it Rocco that "needs to hear this", anyway? If you really think twins pitchers need to be left out longer, then you better direct this critique at Wes Johnson, Derek Falvey, and Thad Levine too. pretty sure they're all on the same page right now in terms of pitcher usage. (and they're hardly Captain Hook on starters in comparison to the rest of MLB)

Also, I never want Dusty Baker near my pitchers. Cubs fans would agree (old school Dusty let Kerry Wood chuck 120+ pitches 12 times in 2003. Mark Prior threw over 120 pitches in 5 out of 6 starts in Sept that year. neither pitcher was ever the same after 2003, Prior was out of the league in 2007 and after 3 injury filled seasons, Wood had to move to the bullpen to keep his arm from falling off).

[sjunisu]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, if only everyone was more like Dusty Baker with his immaculate postseason record. Step aside Cora, Hinch, and Roberts, Dusty Baker's on the job.

 

 

His record in the playoffs is better than the Twins history during that time

[nicksaviking]

As a baseball fan and a guy who appreciates the history of the game, Dusty Baker is pretty much the ONLY thing I like about this post season.

But he's the kind of guy I like from a distance and on somebody else's favorite team. I absolutely do not want the Twins to go back to the old school type of manager. Rocco might not be the right guy, but I don't want a throwback.

[TheLeviathan]

Rocco Baldelli's pitcher usage is absolutely in line with the rest of baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Rocco Baldelli's pitcher usage is absolutely in line with the rest of baseball.

People here complain about the Twins all the time....without looking at what EVERYONE ELSE in MLB is doing....players, managers, et. al. Over and over. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

As a baseball fan and a guy who appreciates the history of the game, Dusty Baker is pretty much the ONLY thing I like about this post season.

But he's the kind of guy I like from a distance and on somebody else's favorite team. I absolutely do not want the Twins to go back to the old school type of manager. Rocco might not be the right guy, but I don't want a throwback.

Exactly this. I like Dusty Baker. He’s wildly respected throughout the game and seems like a good dude.

I also don’t want him within 100 ft of the team I cheer on a nightly basis. 

[Rosterman]

Ober was maxing out on innings after sitting out 2020. Same could be said of other arms. Albeit this was the season to let pitchers go through that batting order again. And if you needed more arms, they were down on the farm.

 

I still felt Balazovic and Strotman needed to throw in the majors in 2021, just to get the taste out of the way and have something better to work on during the off-season.

 

And if the Twins were really concerned about innings, they maybe could've wrangled another arm or two with starter qualifications rather than continuous promotion of bullpen arms who they really didn't see a need to keep come the off-season. Yes, Albers could eat innings after you were forced to sit Ober. 

[cHawk]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

As a baseball fan and a guy who appreciates the history of the game, Dusty Baker is pretty much the ONLY thing I like about this post season.

But he's the kind of guy I like from a distance and on somebody else's favorite team. I absolutely do not want the Twins to go back to the old school type of manager. Rocco might not be the right guy, but I don't want a throwback.

[yeahyabetcha]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Rocco Baldelli's pitcher usage is absolutely in line with the rest of baseball.

How did that strategy pay off for the Twins this?

[TheLeviathan]

32 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

How did that strategy pay off for the Twins this?

You think pitching the bad starting pitchers more would've been a better strategy?  Or would it be burning out young arms unprepared for the workload and potentially harming their careers?  Which part sounds like winning to you?

[Prince William]

6 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

You think pitching the bad starting pitchers more would've been a better strategy?  Or would it be burning out young arms unprepared for the workload and potentially harming their careers?  Which part sounds like winning to you?

I think Shoemaker and Happ should have been pitching 7 inning games and kept until the end of the season.  I think they should have traded Berrios once the season was lost, sometime in May.  Albers could have filled in sooner and pitched 7+  inning games. I don't think he arm would have blown off. With that mentality the Twins surly could have won the race to the bottom. You did say you wanted a team that won something, didn't you?

[TwinsDr2021]

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Ober didn't pitch last year and never topped 78.2 innings in his professional career because of injuries. His max was 106 back in 2014 when he was a freshman in college. He's a terrible example for your point.

 

I think what he might have been trying to say is that in a few games Ober could have went longer and they could have skipped his last start,  he still ends up with 92.1 innings. I haven't read that people wanted him to pitch more innings in the year, just a few more in a game or four.

The most batters he ever faced in a game was 23 (twice), he averaged just under facing 19 guys a guy, which to me says the Twins were worried about him facing somebody three times.

The issue I see is that next year again will be a learning year for Ober and the Twins, Is he really a guy that can be counted on to start and give you 5,6,7 innings? or is he a guy that can only face a batter once or twice. On top of that he is going to be a guy on a innings count again next year, If he is completely healthy would they give him 30 starts and 5innings a start? jumping to 150 innings seems like a pretty big jump for him?

[TwinsDr2021]

9 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

You think pitching the bad starting pitchers more would've been a better strategy?  Or would it be burning out young arms unprepared for the workload and potentially harming their careers?  Which part sounds like winning to you?

Can't it be a little bit of both? Asking just a bit more, here and there, skipping a start here and there. Stacking starters occasionally, instead of pitching one pitcher 4 innings, and one each of the next 5 innings?

 

[Nine of twelve]

One thing that doesn't seem to get enough attention is that managing, especially managing pitching, in the postseason is much different from managing in the regular season. Over the course of 162 games playing the percentages is much more likely to work in a team's favor. Putting a short leash on a starter after going through the lineup twice is likely to result in success. However, think of the postseason as a short season. The world champion will have played 11 to 20 games. Each and every game is highly important and the approach should be different. That's why starters are much more likely to get pulled after giving up three runs in the first inning, and (this is where I fault Dave Cash) pitchers who are clearly in control should, IMHO, not be pulled proactively. 

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

One thing that doesn't seem to get enough attention is that managing, especially managing pitching, in the postseason is much different from managing in the regular season. Over the course of 162 games playing the percentages is much more likely to work in a team's favor. Putting a short leash on a starter after going through the lineup twice is likely to result in success. However, think of the postseason as a short season. The world champion will have played 11 to 20 games. Each and every game is highly important and the approach should be different. That's why starters are much more likely to get pulled after giving up three runs in the first inning, and (this is where I fault Dave Cash) pitchers who are clearly in control should, IMHO, not be pulled proactively. 

Chris Sale was cruising in game 5 and Cora didn't pull him when the analytics said he should and he imploded and they lost the game. Matt Harvey was cruising in the WS (I forget what game it was, 6 maybe?) and the Mets didn't pull him when the analytics said they should and he imploded and they lost that series to the Royals. You can find examples of things going poorly both ways. Not saying I disagree with you (I would've left Snell in). The playoffs are just such a weird beast and every decision is going to be second guessed. That's why I'm good with the strategy of "just get in and see what happens." The playoffs are a crapshoot.