Should the Minnesota Twins bring A.J. Minter back in 2027?

Many complaints about the Twins' bullpen are echoed by fans and reflected when the staff is asked to carry too much because the starting core cannot go deep into games.

The Minnesota Twins obtained A.J. Minter from the New York Mets at the trade deadline, adding a left-handed reliever with experience and the potential to strengthen their bullpen. Although he had a few tough performances late in the season, his overall record with the Twins gives them reason to consider bringing him back for 2027.

In 25 games, Minter went 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA, 21 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings and a .218 batting average against. He also earned 0.6 bWAR, underscoring his significant contribution during his stint with Minnesota.

That's when the conversation becomes intriguing.

Don’t Let the Ending Define the Season

Pitchers are often judged by their most recent game; a few difficult outings late in the season can easily alter the story, but they should not automatically overshadow what came earlier.

It must be determined whether Minter's later struggles indicate a more serious issue or simply reflect a tough stretch within an otherwise successful career. The Twins must make that distinction before deciding on his future.

His 4.91 FIP, compared with his 2.78 ERA, also merits note, as does his struggle against lefties. The difference suggests that his ERA may not tell the full story and casts doubt on whether his run prevention is sustainable.

Many of those doubts stem from fans who say his ERA will not be sustainable given his considerably lower velocity as the season went on. In the off-season with the Mets, Minter was recovering from a torn left lat and prior hip labrum microfracture surgery.

Before his surgery, his fastball dipped from an average of 96.7 mph in 2022 to 92.5-93.7 mph this season. That's a huge drop in the world of pitching. Still, as he worked to improve, he performed better in high-leverage situations, allowing only eight walks over 22 innings. Only 4.3% to the leagues average 9.9%. So, while his struggles can be cited, his work ethic can be, too.

His results should not lead Minnesota to rely only on the surface figures when assessing his value.

Experience Comes with Value 

Minter brings more than his Minnesota statistics; with Atlanta, he appeared in high-pressure postseason situations, including the Braves’ 2021 World Series championship campaign.

Minter's walk rate was comparable to that of Robert Suarez, demonstrating the kind of command associated with high-leverage bullpen arms and strengthening the case for retaining him at the right price.

That experience could benefit a Twins team trying to build a competitive pitching staff, but one factor must be considered given his off-season history and its effect on his on-the-mound work.

Before making a decision, Minnesota should assess his medical outlook, velocity, and other basic performance figures. His recovery does not preclude a reunion, but it should factor into the length and value of any contract he may receive.

Make the Right Investment

The Twins should not overpay for familiarity, but they also shouldn't rule out a productive option without weighing the cost of replacing him.

Minter. who will be 33 years old until next September, has shown he can be effective in Minnesota. Still, his FIP and injury record provide valid grounds for caution, and together these factors should help the Twins make an informed decision.

The Twins pitching staff is a huge component of that. Since joining the Twins staff as bullpen coach a year ago, LaTroy Hawkins has been the pitcher whisperer. The bullpen pitchers, such as Minter, have improved by homing in on their “new normals.” For Minter, that has meant adjusting his fastball usage, relying more on cutter, and working with his lower velocity. 

The issue is not whether Minter had a perfect season, since he didn't; it is whether his performance, experience and potential contribution warrant a new contract.

Minter is on most top ten lists of bullpen free agents. The Twins might consider bringing A.J. Minter back for 2027; if his medical exam is positive and the financial terms are acceptable, that could be a sensible decision for Minnesota. 

It isn't always necessary to pursue the most well-known name when building an improved roster; sometimes what matters is identifying the value a player can bring and matching the investment to the opportunity.

Minter has given the Twins enough reason to keep the discussion going.

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