Olney: Twins reluctant to trade Buxton, Berríos, Rogers

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I'd probably look to move Berríos and Rogers, this is actually a pretty positive sign for the fanbase. I doubt they'd hold onto these players if ownership was breathing down their necks to cut payroll.

Does this make it more likely the Twins maintain a semi-competitive payroll in 2022?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/twins-reportedly-disinclined-to-trade-players-controllable-beyond-2021.html

[wsnydes]

This could also be an attempt to drive up the trade value of these guys.  

Though, if true, I'd take it as a good sign that they intend to be competitive next season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, wsnydes said:

This could also be an attempt to drive up the trade value of these guys.  

Though, if true, I'd take it as a good sign that they intend to be competitive next season.

It very well could be a feint, I guess we'll find out soon enough!

[Squirrel]

ahh ... things to be hopeful about? maybe? a little? (don't want to get too hopeful because it's too far a distance a to fall)

[DocBauer]

So Rosenthal and Olney both have reports that almost completely contradict one another? But, everything on the internet, especially from a news/media member has to be true right? Right? Is that the sky falling?

But seriously, I have no doubt the Twins are approaching Buxton, and then almost assuredly Berrios, with long term extensions. And I have no doubt they have zero intention of trading anyone until next season barring a massive return haul as reported in the Olney piece. And the public "take it or leave it" comments toward Buxton were just speculative, trolling trash. Nobody negotiates that way, especially publicly. 

I'd day this piece is on point with some basic truths from the first, there is an offer made to Buxton.

[Brock Beauchamp]

14 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

So Rosenthal and Olney both have reports that almost completely contradict one another? But, everything on the internet, especially from a news/media member has to be true right? Right? Is that the sky falling?

They don't really contradict each other much, if at all.

From Rosenthal:

"Buxton, 27, likely will be dealt if he rejects the proposal, if not by the July 30 trade deadline — he currently is on the injured list with a fractured left hand — then this offseason."

"But if Buxton rejects the Twins’ extension, the team likely would get a better return for him in the offseason, particularly if he plays in the final two months the way he did in the first five weeks."

From MLBTR on Olney:

"That’s not to say Minnesota’s cutting off talks on longer-term assets entirely, but it casts increasing doubt about the likelihood of stars like Byron Buxton and José Berríos — both of whom are controllable next season via arbitration — changing uniforms within the next couple weeks."

Olney doesn't think they'll be dealt at the deadline, Rosenthal suggests if an extension cannot be agreed upon, either/both could be dealt in the offseason.

[Dman]

I think that is the smart play and I think most of the board wants both players extended, the concern was can the Twins get it done and if not shouldn't they be trying to maximize the trade value those players posses. 

Yes if they trade those players right now they should be asking for the moon.  If someone wants to desperately make a move and overpay then sure go for it.  Otherwise keeping them gives them the best option to do well next year unless of course Buxton is hurt all of next year too.  However, If they lose both players for draft comp or a deadline move next year I think they will have missed on a valuable opportunity to supplement their 2nd wave that is just coming up.

 

[beckmt]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think that is the smart play and I think most of the board wants both players extended, the concern was can the Twins get it done and if not shouldn't they be trying to maximize the trade value those players posses. 

Yes if they trade those players right now they should be asking for the moon.  If someone wants to desperately make a move and overpay then sure go for it.  Otherwise keeping them gives them the best option to do well next year unless of course Buxton is hurt all of next year too.  However, If they lose both players for draft comp or a deadline move next year I think they will have missed on a valuable opportunity to supplement their 2nd wave that is just coming up.

 

For the small market teams, they will absolutely need the 1 1/2 years of prospect control to give up significant prospect assets for either Buxton or Berrios.  So the longer you hold on to them (if you have to sell) the smaller the market for those assets.

[mike8791]

FO caught between a rock and hard place.  Selling off only short term rentals unlikely to move needle much in 2022 as these rentals cannot be expected to bring back any major league-ready talent.  Instead, losing guys like Cruz, Simmons, Pineda and Robles would most probably make 2022 Twins worse than current team, as there are no immediate replacements for any.

It certainly looks like FO trying to keep Buxton with recent reports of contract offering.  We don't know of any such offering for Berrios, so I suspect he is more likely to be moved by deadline, but only if a contender offers quality returns.  I think Rogers, with his recent poor outings, is not going to bring as much in the way of prospects as many on this site hope for.  He is no longer in the elite closer category.

So, assuming Olney's report is credible, if we read the tea leaves, maybe current thinking is that Twins can contend again in 2022.  Of course, events in next 12 days can upset the apple cart, but for sake of argument let's say this is FO's strategy going forward.  The question is ; is it a realistic one?   To succeed, they will have to rely on a combination of successful FA signings, particularly at least a #3 starter and a potential closer-type,  continued progress from guys like Larnach, Kirillof, and Jeffers, and most importantly, accelerated development of their top pitching prospects to adequately fill #4 & #5 spots in the rotation and a couple of capable bullpen pieces.

Based on their history, while I hope for the best,  it seems like accomplishing all of the above is akin to pulling to an inside straight.  Can they pull it off?  Anything's possible, but realistically, highly improbable.  The good news is that a negative outcome should pave the way for an early exit for the Wonder Boys.  And maybe that's the best we can hope for in the current scenario.

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, beckmt said:

For the small market teams, they will absolutely need the 1 1/2 years of prospect control to give up significant prospect assets for either Buxton or Berrios.  So the longer you hold on to them (if you have to sell) the smaller the market for those assets.

Yeah but I think at the deadline depending on the situation having good prospects at the very end can pay off.  There is always more than one team who wants player X but, once player X is traded they need to move to player Y and if player Y is the only good remaining asset on the market you are going to be willing to pay more in prospects otherwise you risk being left out completely.  Can be risky to play it that way though because if no one "needs" your guy then maybe no deal gets done and as you said then you lose the value of said player helping a team 2 years instead of just one. 

The deadline is pretty much a game of chicken until the very end.  Once things start moving though it all seems to happen pretty fast.

[Dman]

15 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

FO caught between a rock and hard place.  Selling off only short term rentals unlikely to move needle much in 2022 as these rentals cannot be expected to bring back any major league-ready talent.  Instead, losing guys like Cruz, Simmons, Pineda and Robles would most probably make 2022 Twins worse than current team, as there are no immediate replacements for any.

It certainly looks like FO trying to keep Buxton with recent reports of contract offering.  We don't know of any such offering for Berrios, so I suspect he is more likely to be moved by deadline, but only if a contender offers quality returns.  I think Rogers, with his recent poor outings, is not going to bring as much in the way of prospects as many on this site hope for.  He is no longer in the elite closer category.

So, assuming Olney's report is credible, if we read the tea leaves, maybe current thinking is that Twins can contend again in 2022.  Of course, events in next 12 days can upset the apple cart, but for sake of argument let's say this is FO's strategy going forward.  The question is ; is it a realistic one?   To succeed, they will have to rely on a combination of successful FA signings, particularly at least a #3 starter and a potential closer-type,  continued progress from guys like Larnach, Kirillof, and Jeffers, and most importantly, accelerated development of their top pitching prospects to adequately fill #4 & #5 spots in the rotation and a couple of capable bullpen pieces.

Based on their history, while I hope for the best,  it seems like accomplishing all of the above is akin to pulling to an inside straight.  Can they pull it off?  Anything's possible, but realistically, highly improbable.  The good news is that a negative outcome should pave the way for an early exit for the Wonder Boys.  And maybe that's the best we can hope for in the current scenario.

Can't say anything for sure as anything can happen between now and next spring but it sure seems like the FO is going to double down on this core.  They have to feel they are just pitching away from turning things around but will those young pitchers really be ready by next year?  It seems unlikely.

I agree that they are unlikely to get anything back in the help soon category for the rentals they are peddling.  Cruz and maybe Pineda are the only ones that can fetch more than a major lottery ticket IMO.  So you are right there will not be much improvement for this team after the deadline, with that approach they are banking on what they already have in the system IMO.

We'll have to wait and see how it all plays out but I sure hope they make the right decisions.

[MABB1959]

I am going to go with trading Buxton for a decent prospect (which they may or may not develop correctly) and cash.  Most likely same for Berrios and they will be able to say the made good offers.

[Brandon]

If the Twins are going to make a run for it next year, They should offer Nelson a 1 year contract extension too.  While I know father time will catch up to him, he isn't slowing down much if at all.  I wonder if he would sign a 1 year 15 million extension now and avoid the mess in the offseason.

[nicksaviking]

Whatever happens, they just need to be decisive and they need to know EXACTLY the expected outcomes for these players based on their actions or inactions. 
 

If they keep Berrios, they need to know that they can do the Sevarino/McCullers extension with him this winter. If the opposite is true, they need to know that. For certain. 
 

If Buxton rejects their deal, they need to know specifically what he wants.  No need for ultimatums; a handshake and a “sorry this didn’t work out” is just fine.
 

Frankly, the pussyfooting that goes with MLB contract negotiations from both parties is nauseating. Get to the point and stop being cute.

[Nine of twelve]

I don't think Falvey or Levine has an untouchable list, nor should they. Any player on the roster can and should be traded if the return is an upgrade for the organization.

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I don't think Falvey or Levine has an untouchable list, nor should they. Any player on the roster can and should be traded if the return is an upgrade for the organization.

Sound in principle, but if the return is all low-A prospects, they can't really do that.  Just like a manufacturing company can't shift all cash flow away from production and toward R&D, you have to have someone capable at the major league level while you develop your prospects or else you look like the 2021 Diamondbacks perpetually all the while strengthening the "organization".

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

...Frankly, the pussyfooting that goes with MLB contract negotiations from both parties is nauseating. Get to the point and stop being cute.

I don't think this is a fair take because of how big of an impact we're talking about for both the player and the organization. There's a lot to think about. You're talking about potentially the entire career for a player who has invested a decade of very hard work into "his" company. He's negotiating a guaranteed contract worth 10s of millions (or even potentially asking for 100s of millions of dollars) where this contract could lead to enormous repercussions for a multi-billion dollar company. It's more like a business acquisition than selling a used car with a "bottom line" price which has been pre determined. Agents, lawyers, executives and business owners are all involved in these discussions around risk analysis, forecasting, competitive balance, cash flows, legal and insurance issues are at play.

Trying to view it from a wider perspective may provide more insight into why these negotiations are seemingly so complicated and take so long as frustrating as it is for fans.

[TNtwins85]

I’ve gotta think that if it’s even close to a reasonable deal with all the incentives Buxton has to take the deal. Unless he’s willing to push all of his chips on the table and believe that he’s gonna A. Play more than 120 games next year. B. Play even close to what he has this year in limited action and C. Convince a team that he’s got say 6-7 seasons left of 25+million worth of value left in his body. All based on the menial number of games he’s played this year and years before. He’s gotta take the twins deal. Maybe like I said he’s seriously pushing everything into the middle for next season.

[Aerodeliria]

I always raise an eyebrow when the experts say, "So-and-so is not being actively considered for blah-blah-blah." My mind tends to think exactly the opposite because of countless times the opposite was actually true. (That slices both ways too. "The Twins are making a serious bid for so-and-so," when actually they are not really making any bid at all.) Nevertheless, it is interesting to hear opinions.

[Greglw3]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

If the Twins are going to make a run for it next year, They should offer Nelson a 1 year contract extension too.  While I know father time will catch up to him, he isn't slowing down much if at all.  I wonder if he would sign a 1 year 15 million extension now and avoid the mess in the offseason.

I like that idea!!! Id like to see Cruz retire a Twin!

[Brandon]

8 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

I’ve gotta think that if it’s even close to a reasonable deal with all the incentives Buxton has to take the deal. Unless he’s willing to push all of his chips on the table and believe that he’s gonna A. Play more than 120 games next year. B. Play even close to what he has this year in limited action and C. Convince a team that he’s got say 6-7 seasons left of 25+million worth of value left in his body. All based on the menial number of games he’s played this year and years before. He’s gotta take the twins deal. Maybe like I said he’s seriously pushing everything into the middle for next season.

Or he is pushing for a little more of a guarentee.  Maybe Buxton wants to make sure he guarentee's he makes over 100 million in his career?  70 million over 6 years isn't much for his potential talent.  why not raise the floor a little.  say 6 years 85-90 million guarentee with escalators.....

or he wants more top end money.  or a little of both......

It does sound like there is a framework for a deal and that it is possible to reach an agreement.

 

[beckmt]

According to the Star-tribune article for tomorrow, Berrios wants market value (at his perception).  Lance Lynn just got 2/38 from the White Sox.  That is telling me Berrios would want like 6/150 or in that neighborhood.  If you don't want to go there, you must trade him in the next two weeks.  

I feel that is Ace or close to Ace money.  Maybe the market is going there.  I could see the Twins going either way on this, but my feeling is they trade him. He did do damage by closing off the return from the small market teams for the next 1 1/2 years as they now know they cannot sign him.

[Original_JB]

4 hours ago, beckmt said:

According to the Star-tribune article for tomorrow, Berrios wants market value (at his perception).  Lance Lynn just got 2/38 from the White Sox.  That is telling me Berrios would want like 6/150 or in that neighborhood.  If you don't want to go there, you must trade him in the next two weeks.  

I feel that is Ace or close to Ace money.  Maybe the market is going there.  I could see the Twins going either way on this, but my feeling is they trade him. He did do damage by closing off the return from the small market teams for the next 1 1/2 years as they now know they cannot sign him.

Yeah, I kind of think Berrios is already gone (in his own mind). He wants market value. Twins won't go there, otherwise, deal would be done. When you start getting the 'I've been waiting six years for this' (free agency/freedom to maximize his value)comments, the Twins will need to be the high bidder --- which ain't happening.

[Original_JB]

Made my thoughtful comment, now the cynical one; so when exactly is the non-refundable portion of the Season Ticket Holder deposits for 2022 due? If they can, Twins will talk the "all in for next year/not trading anybody" talk right up to the day after that money is due.

[Dodecahedron]

I disagree that the front office is in a bind due to the fact that selling the rental players won't return much.  This is baseball, everyone knows how this goes.  This is the time of year where non-contenders shed pointless salary.  It's just as much about freeing up cash as it is trading.  Heck, its mostly about freeing up cash for non-contending teams.  Contenders are looking to buy, not sell, so yes of course they won't give away much unless the Twins commit to paying some of the outbound salary.  None of this is new.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

I'm ok with the Twins not moving Berrios or Buxton but it makes no sense to hold onto Rogers. He's 30. Get something for him.

[Linus]

I was in the keep Berrios camp as I don’t want a rebuild. 
then I read today’s article in the Trib. Berrios isn’t signing until he is a free agent and I don’t like our chances in that contest. So here is my new plan: trade him now and gain several valuable prospects. Take the money you would have given him and sign a comparable starter in the off season. We end up in a similar spot next year (the rest of this year doesn’t matter) and we have a prospect haul. I like Jose but he is a good pitcher not a great pitcher. 

[nicksaviking]

36 minutes ago, Linus said:

I was in the keep Berrios camp as I don’t want a rebuild. 
then I read today’s article in the Trib. Berrios isn’t signing until he is a free agent and I don’t like our chances in that contest. So here is my new plan: trade him now and gain several valuable prospects. Take the money you would have given him and sign a comparable starter in the off season. We end up in a similar spot next year (the rest of this year doesn’t matter) and we have a prospect haul. I like Jose but he is a good pitcher not a great pitcher. 

I just read the article. It sounds more to me like he's still open to working out a deal with the Twins prior to hitting free agency. He's just not taking a discount.

Considering the Twins have had interest in top free agent pitchers but several of them indicated they wanted to play elsewhere for various reasons, seems like the Twins should have no problem locking him up if they're willing to pay market rate for a guy who says he likes it here. 

[Linus]

56 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I just read the article. It sounds more to me like he's still open to working out a deal with the Twins prior to hitting free agency. He's just not taking a discount.

Considering the Twins have had interest in top free agent pitchers but several of them indicated they wanted to play elsewhere for various reasons, seems like the Twins should have no problem locking him up if they're willing to pay market rate for a guy who says he likes it here. 

I hope you are right and I am wrong. I took it to mean whoever he signs with it will be in free agency. 

[dbminn]

Here's Falvey with Mad Dog Russo on MLB Network today: