Olney: Twins reluctant to trade Buxton, Berríos, Rogers

[Dman]

6 hours ago, Original_JB said:

Yeah, I kind of think Berrios is already gone (in his own mind). He wants market value. Twins won't go there, otherwise, deal would be done. When you start getting the 'I've been waiting six years for this' (free agency/freedom to maximize his value)comments, the Twins will need to be the high bidder --- which ain't happening.

Yeah I think that statement "I have been waiting 6 years" says a lot. Reading between the lines it says the Twins have been low balling me when they had leverage and by waiting now I have the upper hand.  Let's see how they (Twins) like pressure coming the other way.  I think there is some animosity there personally.

He said the right things like that he is willing to sign an extension with the Twins but I think he already knows they aren't going to give him market value so I agree with your first statement in his mind he is already gone.

Even if they know they can't sign him I still don't know if the FO will trade him at the deadline or not.  They might need him next year just to keep their jobs so will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Given his statements above if the Twins can get anything close to a good deal for him they should take it.  This deadline they will get the best offers they will ever get for him.  Losing that for a mere draft pick seems like a bad play IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I think that statement "I have been waiting 6 years" says a lot. Reading between the lines it says the Twins have been low balling me when they had leverage and by waiting now I have the upper hand.  Let's see how they (Twins) like pressure coming the other way.  I think there is some animosity there personally.

Berríos has bet on himself since day one. This is more of the same, in my opinion. I don't know why we need to ascribe animus to the situation just because a guy wants to maximize his payday and has faith in himself that he can do it.

[insagt1]

I was listening to Russo and Falvey too. what it sounds like he is saying publicly is he expects Twins to contend in 2022. So he won't be making trades to weaken what he feels is a decent group of players developing nicely. Sounds like he feels Buxton wants to stay but didn't come out and say negotiations are going well yet. The flavor I got was this is an outlier year where nothing is lining up and its not a burn them down rebuild them team.

[dbminn]

My guess is that Falvey is sending messages to both players and other GMs... "We like these guys and we're trying to sign them, but we'll listen to offers. Up until now, your offers haven't impressed us in the least."

[Dman]

26 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Berríos has bet on himself since day one. This is more of the same, in my opinion. I don't know why we need to ascribe animus to the situation just because a guy wants to maximize his payday and has faith in himself that he can do it.

It is just an opinion.  I think he wanted a good offer from the Twins earlier.  I think Rosario wanted an offer and never got one.  I think when you have to wait for an offer you feel reflects your value\market value you get a feeling the FO doesn't believe in you.  I think that hurts but, yes to your point pretty much from day one he always said he was betting on himself.  He might harbor no ill will at all I have no idea but I think odds are there is tension there.

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, beckmt said:

According to the Star-tribune article for tomorrow, Berrios wants market value (at his perception).  Lance Lynn just got 2/38 from the White Sox.  That is telling me Berrios would want like 6/150 or in that neighborhood.  If you don't want to go there, you must trade him in the next two weeks.  

I feel that is Ace or close to Ace money.  Maybe the market is going there.  I could see the Twins going either way on this, but my feeling is they trade him. He did do damage by closing off the return from the small market teams for the next 1 1/2 years as they now know they cannot sign him.

Lance Lynn has been notably better across the past 3 years and far better across his career than Berrios. Lynn has much higher upside, but he was enormously burned in the 2017-2018 offseason by a number of factors including his push for a longer contract so he's probably a little risk averse at this point. Between the two?

2019-2021 Lynn (383 innings, 3.20 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 10.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 vs. Berrios (372 innings, 3.68 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9)

[KirbyDome89]

Maybe Falvey truly sees a strong chance to compete in 2022? It's not inconceivable, but it'd be surprising given the number of rotation and bullpen vacancies, and the current injuries to arms in the minors. My guess is that ownership isn't super receptive to the idea of a full rebuild.

[DocBauer]

A little more time for reflection, reading and listening,  I'm looking at things with a slightly different perspective, though not drastic.

The key for Buxton is Buxton. And that's not a simple BS statement. There is a side of the aisle that is right to say not to invest that much $ in someone so often out of the lineup, no matter how talented. But there is the other side of the aisle equally correct about what a difference maker he is when in the lineup and the hope of how much a difference maker he could be if he suddenly finds better health. But how does Buck feel? At this point his betting on himself comes down to, realistically, ONE season, 2022. But for however many years the $70M is for as a floor, are we talking another $25-50M+  available by betting on himself? Can he hope form can he possibly, expect more IF he's suddenly healthy in 2022? Does he want to risk that? Or is he willing for the guaranteed $ AND the potential $? Not just as a fan, but we're in I his ear as an advisor or family member, I think I'd advise take the deal.

I have no problem with Berrios wanting to test the market and bet on himself. It's his right. It's his opportunity. I'm a fan of Berrios and I still feel there is potential to reach another level going in to his age 28yr old season and early 30's. Will he do it? Who knows? But what is market value? As much of a fan as I am, unless he produces something like a top 1-5 Cy Young season in 2022, is he really worth a $25M per contract? I know it only takes ONE TEAM to believe that and make that kind of offer, but that's an awful lot of money for a #2 SP at this point. Is he worth something like $18-20M with incentives that probably aren't too hard to reach? That would be my opinion and what I'd be offering. Very good guaranteed $ with incentives that probably aren't hard to reach. Guaranteed $25M per I just don't know if the Twins could afford that. But I don't see him traded at this time or this offseason. Not unless the Twins jump in to full blown re-build mode.

At 30yo with no dip in velocity and fully healthy, I don't see Rogers going anywhere. You can't fix the pen by trading your best arm....unless you go the re-build mode.

In regard to the mentioned Cruz, IDK. Love to keep him, and his influence for 2022. He's special. But needing to TRY to keep what we have, add arms...still waiting IMPATIENTLY for the young arms to debut... and re-tool the 2022 team, I'm just not sure there is room. We don't know how the Donaldson situation will turn out yet, and that complicates the roster as well as the $. AK and Larnach will only get better, I hate to put pressure on yet another prospect, but the Twins, scouts, etc, have just been waiting for Miranda to put it all together. It's looking like he is now. Garver MIGHT be best used as the #2 catcher as well as 1B and DH. It's part of the confusing reality of 2022 and beyond.

 

[jkcarew]

Reluctant to trade Buxton or Berrios while you push to sign them before the deadline. If they’re reluctant to sign or expecting elite money, then become anxious to trade them.

Neither is worth the huge end of huge money…for different reasons.

[Mike Sixel]

This team is bad. Not a player or two away. Blow it up. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This team is bad. Not a player or two away. Blow it up. 

Aren't these the same players who won 100 games two years ago?

[Taildragger8791]

55 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Aren't these the same players who won 100 games two years ago?

Yes and no. Every hitter had a career year at the same time. It was a charmed season that won’t repeat. The pitching has turned over almost completely since then. The veteran hitters are either aging or busting and will need to be replaced soon anyways.

[Platoon]

7 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

Yes and no. Every hitter had a career year at the same time. It was a charmed season that won’t repeat. The pitching has turned over almost completely since then. The veteran hitters are either aging or busting and will need to be replaced soon anyways.

I think that’s one of the frequently missed parts of the Twins conundrum. 2019 hangs over this team like it’s the norm for this group. It’s not. As noted above so many players had big years. Also, the FO tossed out a bat first lineup all over the field on a year when MLB decided golf balls made for good baseball(s). If you want to treat this year as an outlier, then you better be ready to treat 2019 as one also. 

[Taildragger8791]

2 minutes ago, Platoon said:

I think that’s one of the frequently missed parts of the Twins conundrum. 2019 hangs over this team like it’s the norm for this group. It’s not. As noted above so many players had big years. Also, the FO tossed out a bat first lineup all over the field on a year when MLB decided golf balls made for good baseball(s). If you want to treat this year as an outlier, then you better be ready to treat 2019 as one also. 

I’d add on that we’ve been shown the offensive approach employed since 2019 is not resilient or consistent enough to succeed reliably. It’s really hard to just hit home runs against top pitchers in October. 

[TopGunn#22]

7th inning collapses like last night do not help Berrios make the case he's worth "Ace" money.  "Aces" finish that game in short order...1-2-3.  I like Buxton, but I'm much more willing to deal him to a WIN NOW team than play the Russian Roulette of his health every year.  It's interesting to note however that Kepler at 30.4 has a higher value in Baseball Trade Values than Buxton's 25.3.  I'd sell HIGH on Max and just sell on Buxton.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think it would just be really interesting to go back, two years ago, and see if people were describing the offense as a one-year wonder. If anyone was, I was. Yet the offense is at least average or well above average in all the standard statistics this year. Are they too old? I don't know how anyone can claim that if they really take a look.  

It's the pitching, they need two additional starters and two additional relievers, and if they get 3 of 4 of those, plus a better start to the season (no bad blown saves), they will be right back up to 90+ wins. But yeah they need to get that part right.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

In other news ...

Twins Set Lofty Asking Price On José Berríos  

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I think it would just be really interesting to go back, two years ago, and see if people were describing the offense as a one-year wonder. If anyone was, I was. Yet the offense is at least average or well above average in all the standard statistics this year. Are they too old? I don't know how anyone can claim that if they really take a look.  

It's the pitching, they need two additional starters and two additional relievers, and if they get 3 of 4 of those, plus a better start to the season (no bad blown saves), they will be right back up to 90+ wins. But yeah they need to get that part right.

While 2019 was almost certainly an aberration, that doesn't mean the offense isn't good anymore... they're still quite good with a few significant flaws.

And the team is hitting quite well while two of their three best hitters have combined for under 250 plate appearances. Of course, that could continue to be the case but there's still some offensive upside on this team.

[Taildragger8791]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

While 2019 was almost certainly an aberration, that doesn't mean the offense isn't good anymore... they're still quite good with a few significant flaws.

And the team is hitting quite well while two of their three best hitters have combined for under 250 plate appearances. Of course, that could continue to be the case but there's still some offensive upside on this team.

It's good for the regular season where things average out over time against a broad range of pitching quality. They still score over half their runs off the long ball though. And Cruz is going to leave a monster hole to fill. Donaldson may be another hole soon. That's a lot of quality, high impact plate appearances to replace. I have concerns.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Taildragger8791 said:

It's good for the regular season where things average out over time against a broad range of pitching quality. They still score over half their runs off the long ball though. And Cruz is going to leave a monster hole to fill. Donaldson may be another hole soon. That's a lot of quality, high impact plate appearances to replace. I have concerns.

For sure, which is why I added "with significant flaws" to my statement about the offense. This lineup could use a right-handed Arraez-style bat. That would solve a lot of their problems.

But also, just having the wrecking ball version of Buxton in the lineup drastically alters the offense. Will that ever happen for a full season? I don't know but I sure hope so.

[nicksaviking]

18 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Berríos has bet on himself since day one. This is more of the same, in my opinion. I don't know why we need to ascribe animus to the situation just because a guy wants to maximize his payday and has faith in himself that he can do it.

I agree, no need to be upset with Berrios.

However, in an era where most top end pitchers are willing to at least trade some option years for better pay early in their careers, the only pitcher this team has developed worth of an extension, doesn't seem to want one. I understand why some would take it personally; add the dynamic between Buxton's immense talent and his dreadful injury woes to the equation and it really seems like our franchise just can't catch a break when it comes to franchise players.

[ashbury]

On 7/20/2021 at 5:24 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

It's interesting to note however that Kepler at 30.4 has a higher value in Baseball Trade Values than Buxton's 25.3.  I'd sell HIGH on Max and just sell on Buxton.

The value (which is obviously only somebody's estimate of how front offices might think) reflects 1.5 years of control for a superior player, versus 3.5 years of control for a more average-ish one.  Average is not the same as replacement-level, and such players are pretty valuable, just not super valuable.  For a team going for it this year and next, Buxton might be about twice as valuable (dividing "value" by "years of control") per season.  For a team looking for a longer window of contention, Kepler could have some appeal.  It's not as simple as selling high or low on a fluctuating commodity - they are not equivalent commodities at all.

[ashbury]

On 7/20/2021 at 5:48 AM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Yet the offense is at least average or well above average in all the standard statistics this year.

There is an important standard statistic where they are thoroughly average: runs scored per game. Is their inability to score, at a rate their OPS+ (and the components that make it up) suggests, merely a matter of bad luck?

In a dismal season, it is tempting to look for beacons of hope, and the offense has indeed been less of a boat anchor than the pitching. But if the expectation is to compete for a World Series ring, an average-ish offense becomes the boat anchor if and when the pitching ever were to become superior.  I am far from sold on this offense being able to kick it up a notch to a champion-caliber level.

[wsnydes]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

There is an important standard statistic where they are thoroughly average: runs scored per game. Is their inability to score, at a rate their OPS+ (and the components that make it up) suggests, merely a matter of bad luck?

In a dismal season, it is tempting to look for beacons of hope, and the offense has indeed been less of a boat anchor than the pitching. But if the expectation is to compete for a World Series ring, an average-ish offense becomes the boat anchor if and when the pitching ever were to become superior.  I am far from sold on this offense being able to kick it up a notch to a champion-caliber level.

I agree with all of this.  The issues with the offense only get bigger if Donaldson is also dealt.  Cruz may or may not be back, and even if he is, he'll be another year older.  He's defied Father Time so far, but Father Time will eventually win.  Your guess is as good as mine as to when that will be though.

And even if the offense does figure it out, there's significant work to be done to the pitching staff.  It's nowhere near a title contending staff.

For a team that was supposed to contend coming into this season, there's going to be quite a bit of turnover going into next season.  That could be good or bad.