Twins 2027 Arbitration Decisions: Who Stays, Who Goes?

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Twins have 10 players eligible for arbitration this offseason, meaning those players remain under team control but the club must decide whether to tender them contracts at a potentially increased salary, or non-tender them and make them free agents.

Notably, the deadline to tender or non-tender falls in late November, before the expected lockout commences on December 1st. In a winter where some decisions may be delayed, these ones will need to be made on time. Some are very straightforward, while others have plenty of room for debate. 

Here's a look at the 10 players the Twins will need to decide on, from most service time to least. For each, I included which year of arbitration eligibility they're in (i.e. how far away from free agency), their projected 2027 salary per MLB Trade Rumors, and the percentage of likelihood they'll be tendered a contract by the Twins. 

The last one is of course my subjective opinion, briefly explained for each, but I'd love to hear in the comments section if others have differing takes.

Who stays and who goes for the Minnesota Twins in arbitration?

Anthony Banda: Final year of eligibility
MLBTR projection: $2.3M
Likelihood of tender: 40%

A borderline case, like many in the bullpen. Banda was rounding into form after a bad start before he went down with a season-ending lat injury. The 33-year-old's track record is unexceptional aside from a couple solid years with the Dodgers. The projected salary is not exorbitant, but not necessarily a great deal either. I see this as basically a coin flip, dependent on the front office's broader ambitions for upgrading the relief corps.

Dean Kremer: Final year of eligibility
MLBTR projection: $6.5M
Likelihood of tender: 80%

Not quite a lock but close. Kremer's one additional year of team control was part of the reason Minnesota parted with an intriguing prospect to acquire him at the deadline. He looked as good as they could have hoped after the trade. 

Bailey Ober: Final year of eligibility
MLBTR projection: $6.9M
Likelihood of tender: 30%

I would view this as more likely if the Twins didn't add Kremer. As things stand, the two are pretty redundant as back-end veteran starters with similar price tags. Ober held his own this year but Kremer demonstrated a lot more upside in the second half. That said, we know the Twins like Ober, and keeping them both for $14 million is not totally outlandish — you can never have too much pitching depth.

Joe Ryan: Final year of eligibility
MLBTR projection: $9.6M
Likelihood of tender: 100%

No-brainer. The only way Ryan is not a Twin in 2027 is if he gets traded (which I consider a very real possibility). Notably, his contract does have a mutual option for $13 million, but I have to assume the Twins will decline and pay the $100K buyout to save a few million bucks.

Trevor Larnach: Final year of eligibility
MLBTR projection: $6.3M
Likelihood of tender: 30%

He was a borderline candidate last time at this year, and generally made the Twins look smart for it. Posted a career-high OPS that ranked third on the team. But with Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez having arrived, there's just no room for him in the Minnesota outfield. I can see a reasonable chance of a sign-and-trade situation, but the Twins have notoriously struggled to find a market for their lefty corner outfielders in the past. I don't think they want to head into the lockout with Larnach on the books for next year.

Royce Lewis: Second-to-last year
MLBTR projection: $5.1M
Likelihood of tender: 60%

The trickiest and most weighty decision among this group. The notion of simply letting Lewis go for nothing over $5 million coming off his healthiest season would've been incomprehensible a few short years ago, but it's where we are at. Money is not the issue. He's turned into a poor offensive first baseman on a team that needs to improve its lineup, and he finished the year looking as bad as ever. I think there's a slightly better than 50/50 shot of a tender because the Twins could probably get something in a trade, but from my view there's little chance of him being on this team next Opening Day.

Cole Sands: Second-to-last year
MLBTR projection: $1.3M
Likelihood of tender: 30%

Again: cost not an issue, but more so realistic upside at this point. Good as he looked in 2024, he has a 5.04 ERA since, and lost almost all of this past season to injury. You almost wonder if they could non-tender and re-sign him to a minor-league deal.

Tommy Nance: Third-to-last year
MLBTR projection: $1.2M
Likelihood of tender: 50%

The $1.2 million figure isn't much, but it's probably enough to pencil him into a role in the 2027 bullpen. Nance was fine but he's nothing special. If the Twins want to meaningfully invest as they claim, spending money to upgrade this spot feels like a clear opportunity. Then again, nothing wrong with keeping him around as an inexpensive lower-leverage option.

Kody Clemens: Third-to-last year
MLBTR projection: $3.6M
Likelihood of tender: 100%

He's got an argument for team MVP. There's no question he's coming back with that modest salary increase. This is Clemens' first year of arbitration eligibility, meaning he won't be a free agent until after the 2029 season. What a find.

Taj Bradley: Third-to-last year
MLBTR projection: $4.5M
Likelihood of tender: 100%

Next to Clemens atop the list of candidates for MVP of the 2026 Twins. Also three years away from free agency. Bradley has become a building block for the rotation. The only way he doesn't get tendered a contract is if he's already reached agreement with the team on an extension before then, which is on the table. One way or another, he'll be back.

There are some easy calls here, but also a handful where reasonable minds can differ, especially with the Twins promising a more aggressive approach to improving the roster. Who would you tender, who would you cut loose, and where do you disagree with my percentages? Share your arbitration predictions in the comments.

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[HrbieFan]

See you later Banda, Ober and Trevor! 

[LewFordLives]

I generally agree with your probabilities. Just a couple observations.

1. I think the Twins pick up Ryan's option. Why cause bitterness and slam the door on an extension over a few million bucks. And he may get the higher amount from an arbitrator anyway.

2. I'm fine moving on from Ober. As stated above, he and Kremer are redundant. I have no faith in his ability to get batters out. I would rather watch Matthews and Prelipp.

[DJL44]

Every player they have is priced below free agent retail price. 
Take Banda, for example. For that price in free agency the Twins can probably get Taylor Rogers to return and not much better. Nance is projected to earn $1.2M and the union is pushing for a $1M minimum wage.

Even Larnach at $6M is a much better buy than what they gave Josh Bell last winter. I doubt they can find a $7M reliever who would pitch better than Ober could out of the bullpen.

[TopGunn#22]

Well laid out Nick, it's hard to argue with any of your conclusions.  I had been mistakenly thinking we would actually trade Larnach but you're right, with Jenkins and E-Rod having arrived there is no need to even offer him arbitration and risk being stuck with him again.  It's time to clear the table and go with younger players.  Larnach will probably end up being a value singing for some team willing to invest $6-$6.3 million in a LH DH/LF with a little pop.

There really are very few tough decisions here.  I would keep Kremer because he can throw harder than 88 mph and move on from Ober.  Ober DOES have some value, so offering them both and trading Ober is OK with me.  I can envision seeing Lewis at 1B, but just have to believe they can find a much better option.  

[rv78]

Bradley and Clemens for sure. Kremer probably. Ryan will be traded. The rest need to go if TP is serious about improving the team.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I would non-tender Banda, Ober, Larnach and Lewis. Each will go to another team and have brief flashes of success and some brief flashes of failures, and we will have to read posts saying, "We should have kept him", but Lewis and Larnach have had multiple chances and are owed too much in arbitration at their respective positions, to justify  another season with the Twins. Plus it will be a message to the other Twin players. That message is: "Veterans who have been given multiple opportunities, but who can't play defense, must produce offensively at a very high rate, (i.e. Keaschall) or move on." Banda and Ober, while potentially in 2027, need to step aside for higher ceiling, more talented and younger pitchers with more potential. For every Brent Rooker, there are a dozen Dave McCarty's and Anthony Slama's. That's the nature of professional baseball. 

[StiltedGopher]

When does the new pitching coach get named?  I’d want that person involved on the decisions on the pitchers.  
 

The Twins helped add velocity to some pitchers in the past.  Is there any hope that mechanics could help reverse the lost velocity that Ober has had.  He can pitch.  I include him on my team next year as the Twins regularly need a lot of starters.  

[Nashvilletwin]

Which of those players realistically could be on the ‘28-‘30 Twins?  Bradley and Clemens only:  Keep.

Which of those players could realistically help significantly in ‘27 and be possible valuable trade bait during the season? Ryan and Kremer only. Keep.

Which of those players are so cheap and may have some legitimate upside to possibly be a contributor in ‘28-‘30? Only maybe Sands.

Everyone else should be gone.

[Twins GFP]

It feels like we ask ask this question every year, and every year the answer is the same: Players that have any value at all will be tendered.

Despite all of the hate he seems to get on this website, Ober continually meets or outplays his contract. Does anyone here really think the Twins will let him walk with nothing in return? Insane...

Nance and Banda are replaceable. Everyone else on this list will be tendered. That does not mean they will be on the roster come spring, but they will be tendered.
 

[Coach Wheels]

28 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Bradley and Clemens for sure. Kremer probably. Ryan will be traded. The rest need to go if TP is serious about improving the team.

I think we can sign Ryan and still move him before the deadline

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I would non-tender Banda, Ober, Larnach and Lewis. Each will go to another team and

get a bigger contract in free agency than they would have in arbitration. 
 

Why do you want the team to destroy value by giving away players who are earning less than they would on the open market? Get international bonus money in return if nothing else.

Banda is the best LHRP on the roster. Ober provided $15M of value in 2026. Larnach had a better year than Bell. Lewis is worth $5M if he repeats last season and a lot more if he improves at all.

[Heiny]

In Lewis' case, I don't see them non-tendering unless they sign a much better first baseman.  Who might that be?  Not seeing that happen.  They will tender him and "IF" they later sign a 1B in free agency(highly unlikely),  they could then trade him.  But as a servicable 1B and 3B, they will keep him.  He still has potential with the bat, but losing him before the start of free agency is highly unlikely IMHO.

Ryan, Taj and Clemens are definate tenders.  Kremer is highly likely.  The rest could go either way, again IMHO.

[Andy MacPhail]

I'd trade all of them except Bradley & Clemens but that is a little different topic. If we can't trade them unfortunately, we have to make some decisions. It'd be tough to let Larnach go for nothing but most likely it'll happen. I agree with TwinsGFP, RPs that can be easily replaced are gone.

[miller761]

With Lewis being able to play 1B, 2B and 3B would he not be a candidate for an utility role? He has decent speed and a decent glove. I am hoping the Twins find a left handed 1B to possible platoon with Lewis. He is too young to give up see Larnach and Lee from last year. If the Twins are going to play in October they must strengthen the back end of the roster. At 5 million I think Lewis can help in that area.

[Linus]

None of the dollar amounts are anything to worry about. The decision is simply do you want the player back.