Padres 8, Twins 1: Nando Goes Nanners, Padres Sweep Twins

[Hans Birkeland]

Image courtesy of Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (87 Pitches, 54 Strikes, 62%)
Home Runs: Brooks Lee (20)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jeff Hoffman (-0.32), Josh Bell (-0.09), Victor Caratini (-0.07)
Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):

Last week, I described Sunday's loss to the Phillies, in which the team biffed a 5-0 lead to get swept at home, as the nail in the coffin of the season. What I did not take into account was that the American League is truly garbage, and that the Atlanta Braves would play like garbage. The Twins vaulted into the last Wild Card slot with the sweep of Atlanta—then proceeded to drop the first two against San Diego.

The Padres are a good, serious team with talent throughout their roster. They are also opportunistic, as they showed in rallying from three runs down late in Saturday's game. To salvage a game from the series, the Twins turned to Bailey Ober on the mound, with San Diego countering with Walker Buehler.

This wasn't vintage Buehler, but he has been healthy enough to make all his starts for the Padres. His ERA remains high and his under-the-hood numbers aren't great. He allowed a leadoff single to Luke Keaschall to start his afternoon. But a hobbled Byron Buxton grounded into a double play, and Buehler went on to face the minimum through three innings while consistently staying underneath the Twins' bats.

Ober looked good early, generating some whiffs on his changeup and slider while staying out of the middle of the zone. The only hard contact was off the bat of Fernando Tatis Jr., who looks unconscious right now. He lined out to lead off the bottom of the first at 115 MPH. Ober worked around a couple of walks to cruise into the third, when Tatis got him for a solo home run that was 10 MPH less firm off the bat than his earlier lineout. It was a hanging slider, and Tatis is not missing that pitch right now.

Buxton managed a bloop hit in the top of the fourth, but did not entertain the thought of stretching it into a double, something even a healthy-ish Buxton could have managed easily. He then chose not to run on a 3-2 pitch to Josh Bell, causing an inning-ending double play with Buehler clearly chasing grounders.

With Buehler cruising, it looked like it might be another slow death for the Twins lineup. He got the first two outs of the fifth inning, but Brooks Lee worked a 10-pitch at-bat that culminated with a laser to right field: a home run that tied the game and rattled the previously unshakeable Buehler.

You saw Ober take a deep breath after retiring Luis Rengifo in the bottom of the fifth. Tatis fell behind in the count, but worked back to 3-2 before lining a single at 109 MPH. At that point, I thought to myself, nice. Getting past Tatis without putting him immediately into scoring position or letting him leave the yard felt like a win. But Jake Cronenworth popped a ball up to no-man's land. Lee should have had it, but got turned around, and it fell between him and Alan Roden, putting two on for Manny Machado. Ober bore down and struck him out on a 74-MPH sweeper and got Ty France to fly out to end the threat. The escape didn't come as easily as it should have, but Ober still finagled it.

Kody Funderburk came on for the sixth, hwoever, and didn't have good control. He did induce a weak grounder off the bat of Jackson Merrill, but Kaelen Culpepper booted it. The Twins seemed to get a reprieve when Merrill was picked off leaving early, but Funderburk then walked Luis Campusano and Austin Hays before giving way to Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman, in turn, walked Xander Bogaerts, which brought the infield in. Rengifo then rifled a ball down the first-base line, just past a diving Royce Lewis, scoring two runs. That brought up Tatis, and if ever there was a time to walk a guy with a base open, this was the time.

But Hoffman is probably considered a good matchup against Tatis, given his elite slider. Tatis laced a slider into center field, scoring two more and putting the Padres squarely in the driver's seat. Anybody who has ever watched Tatis during a hot streak (or Barry Bonds, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge etc.) knows that it's one thing to be a good matchup for a guy, and another to be a good matchup for that guy when he's this hot. Basketball teams know that when Steph Curry has hit five straight threes, you need to double him or get the ball out of his hands somehow, but in baseball we just have to watch our teams get bludgeoned and say, hey, it was the right call analytically.

The Padres added on against Travis Adams in the seventh, with Merrill homering to deep right and Bogaerts doubling past the glove of Culpepper to bring in Hays, who had drawn the seventh walk of the game for San Diego.

Furthering my point from earlier, Tatis homered off Taylor Rogers in the eighth. The hottest player in baseball with the platoon advantage against a veteran lefty playing out the string of his career? I would have been more surprised if he hadn't homered. He went 9-14 in this series, with more homers than strikeouts.

Stuff I'm Tracking:

• I wonder if Buxton is consciously avoiding going full speed, with the thought that his swing is getting closer. That is quite a gamble, since a) he remains in a prolonged slump results-wise b) the Twins need his speed and defense and c) Walker Jenkins is homering every other at-bat for the Saints, or so it seems.
• Ober looked good and probably could have gone six or seven innings, if not for Tatis's heroics. He nibbled, but his control was so good he could afford to, and the Padres made tons of weak contact against him as a result.
• Hoffman looks out of whack and seems to be emphasizing his slider more. It's a great pitch, but even a great pitch isn't great when it's predictable.
• Culpepper made two rough misplays at shortstop. After his error in the sixth, he allowed a ball to skip by him in the seventh, leading to the seventh run for San Diego.

What’s Next: The Twins head to Sacramento to take on the floundering A's. Zebby Matthews (7-8, 5.12 ERA) opposes Gage Jump (5-8, 4.83 ERA). Jump is a lefty, which tends to spell doom for the Twins' run-scoring prospects, but they are playing in Sacramento, one of the more lopsided parks in terms of favorability to hitters.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THUR	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Adams	0	0	17	0	34	51
Nance	16	0	0	27	0	43
Hoffman	20	0	0	0	17	37
Funderburk	17	0	0	0	17	34
Rogers	0	0	11	0	15	26
Morris	0	0	0	19	0	19
Minter	10	0	0	8	0	18
Gomez	13	0	0	0	0	13

 

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[Vanimal46]

 

Sweeping the Braves was random baseball. This team died against the Phillies. Getting swept by the Padres confirms the death. 

[Glorybound]

I would say  Buck is about 55%. Time to let the youth have a crack. If that means IL then so be it. The bullpen was bound to have a set back or two.

[mikelink45]

What can be said?  I am just reflecting on Gleeman and the Geek and how they talked about the fact that now we want the BP - instead of the SP.  Guess what?  That's not working either.

[Saxophone Joe]

Bad baseball, all weekend. Feels like a slog right now to get to game 162. 

Truly incredible to remember that this team had the 3rd Wild Card spot 48 hours ago. Seems hard to believe we’ll get back to that position again this season. But I thought that last Sunday, too. 

A 3-3 road trip is still possible! 🤣

 

[thelanges5]

8 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

Sweeping the Braves was random baseball. This team died against the Phillies. Getting swept by the Padres confirms the death. 

they’re only mostly dead, mostly dead is slightly alive

[MeleMouth]

Thinking about this distribution of players:

Toronto: Varland, Dasan Hill, Klein

Minnesota: Hoffman (with much bigger contract), Roden, Rojas

The Twins sold low on Varland and bought high on Hoffman. Anything you can say about Rojas you can also say about Hill, except that he is about two years behind. In that time, Varland is probably going to lap Hoffman while making much less money. I guess if you value Roden, who looks like a back-up part-time corner outfielder, you can add that to the Twins side of the ledger, but it's hard to see much value there, and probably not much more than what Klein provides as an up and down reliever. 

[Vanimal46]

5 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

they’re only mostly dead, mostly dead is slightly alive

5 games under .500 and this roster as currently constructed isn’t capable of a long winning streak. Call up Walker Jenkins and maybe they can go on a run. 

[PuckettPond]

Buxton getting pinch hit what does that tell us? Time to get rid of unproductive players for youth with potential. Losing with youth feels better than with no futures. Time for a 3 year plan to play in the World Series.

[HarmonK03]

5 minutes ago, PuckettPond said:

Buxton getting pinch hit what does that tell us? Time to get rid of unproductive players for youth with potential. Losing with youth feels better than with no futures. Time for a 3 year plan to play in the World Series.

It was a 7 run game, typical to give a bench player an at bat in that situation.  And remember he can not be traded so we need to accept that fact because he is here until his contract is up unless he changes his mind.

[ashbury]

But they're making it very difficult.

[PuckettPond]

Buxton is no longer a shiny penny. Erod needs to be here when rosters increase. Erod needs to play smarter not foolish to become injury free.

[Aggies7]

Late inning walks have sunk the team lately. 3 walks in the decisive 6th today. Inexcusable to the bottom of the order guys. Will probably sweep the A’s to suck everyone in again for the tenth time.

[LastOnePicked]

6 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Will probably sweep the A’s to suck everyone in again for the tenth time.

Like an old alley cat, I think they've finally spent their ninth life. It's over.

[jkcarew]

54 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

Sweeping the Braves was random baseball. This team died against the Phillies. Getting swept by the Padres confirms the death. 

The 3-6 against that stretch doesn’t shock. The how probably shouldn’t be THAT shocking in retrospect. The Braves are a below-500 team going back well into June. Can’t score runs. And we dodged Sale. Still, you would have hoped for ONE win against Phillies/Padres? Alas.

[JD-TWINS]

1) 2 runs ………. 2 hits & Zero walks

2) 5 runs ………… 10 hits & 2 walks 

3) 1 run ………….. 6 hits & Zero walks

They only REALLY had a chance to Win on Saturday……..Supposedly, one of the real positives for the ‘26 Twins is “next man up”…… “ make contact” approach…….. make pitchers work, as well as take Walks to create traffic. What the hell happened this weekend? Larnach looks like he’s never walked in his life for most of last 3 weeks……it’s a Team wide issue!

In Game 1 they allowed 3 walks …… in Game 2 they allowed 4 walks …….. in Game 3 they allowed 7 walks……..14 walks given up to a pretty good Club……flat out ugly!

One thing that gets glossed over in games the Bullpen seems to be the issue………playing from a 1-1 score is a lot different than playing with an offense that shows up……if there’s a 1 or 2 run lead in the 6th, the Infield isn’t IN and even with the walks they potentially give up only 1 or maybe 0 runs with the force at home.

A close game pulls different pitchers from the PEN in 7th & 8th. Bottom line is if a Team scores 1 run they aren’t going to be “competitive” very often!!!

[TheLeviathan]

I said 3-3 to keep anything resembling a pulse.  So I think they still have the faintest bit of life.

They aren't a good baseball team, that won't change with any random three game sample.

[DocBauer]

You know what, I almost don't care. And I really don't mean that as negative as it sounds. I don't believe in moral victories, but despite how bad the Twins have been against NL teams this season...following a pattern of AL ineptitude...I still find some solace in how well the team played against the Dodgers and Brewers and SHOULD have at least won a single game against the Pades Saturday. 

I could easily blame Morris for losing the game Saturday. But he's also a rookie who has generally been outstanding all season. So a couple poor plays and a bad day by him, I'm supposed to blame him? How about I applaud him for the work he's done this season, and how much better he might be in 2027? 

I can say Funderburk has been really good until today. Or I can blame Hoffman for a bad day. 

I can point out that the rest of the Twins season seems generally winnable, and they have a positive W-L against the AL this season. They still have a chance to make the playoffs and MAYBE win the ALC. And I ALWAYS want my teams to "go for it" the best they can.

But reality is starting to set in. I'm not giving up hope. Anything can happen still. And I'd love a chance at the playoffs for fun, at least, and a chance for growth of the organization and it's players.

But even being a major optimist, I just don't see us doing any better than the WC. But I'd accept that for fun and the future.

I just have this feeling that this team is so close to being really good, but they just can't get over the proverbial HUMP. This was SUPPOSED to be a season when the young arms and players were going to start to make their mark for the future at some point, IMO. But the rotation depth is getting tired, even with a great effort from Ober today. And while the bullpen is better now than ever before, the lineup has struggled recently.  And I don't know if there's any easy answers. 

I'm hoping for the best in August, but I'm just starting to think the Twins are running out of steam.

And while I really want them to play meaningful games in September, and HOPEFULLY play some in October, I'm still a bit worried we are going to miss opportunities to get ready for 2027 with a handful of prospects. 

[Danchat]

The moment you count this team out, they prove they're not dead... and then can't sustain it. They've got fight, but they also are failing to win a playoff spot in a historically bad conference.