Should Twins Fans Be Excited About What We've Seen From Kaelen Culpepper?

[Matthew Taylor]

It would be foolish to draw any sweeping conclusions from the first week of Kaelen Culpepper's major league career. The Twins called up their top prospect on August 7, and through his first eight games, we're talking about a player who has barely had enough time to get comfortable in a major league clubhouse, let alone establish what kind of big league player he is going to become. Culpepper was a first-round pick and entered the season as a top-50 prospect in baseball for a reason, but none of that guarantees that he will live up to those expectations.

Eight games certainly aren't enough to know that, but they can give us our first look at some of the tools that made Culpepper such an intriguing prospect in the first place, as well as some of the adjustments he'll need to make if he's going to turn those tools into major league success. So far, there have been plenty of reasons to be encouraged.

The most obvious one is that the underlying swing numbers on Culpepper are every bit as advertised. Culpepper has developed into a violent swinger as he has worked his way through the Twins' minor league system, and that violence has carried over to the majors. His Statcast numbers back it up, with Culpepper's 74 mph swing speed ranking in the upper quartile of major league hitters. While plenty of his other statistics are impossible to trust as they're based on an extremely small sample size, swing speed is one of the measurements that stabilizes relatively quickly.

Bat speed also has a strong positive relationship with exit velocity and barrel rate, so seeing Culpepper come out of the gate with a swing speed in the neighborhood of hitters such as Byron Buxton, Miguel Vargas and Pete Alonso is certainly encouraging. We've also seen that swing speed translate into some legitimate impact. In just his second career at-bat, Culpepper launched a home run to left-center field after hitting the ball 100.2 mph, and a few days later doubled off Jesus Luzardo with a 103.4 mph line drive.

 

Those are obviously just two swings, and it would be silly to extrapolate them into anything more than that. However, seeing Culpepper pair the elite swing speed with the ability to produce 100-plus mph exit velocities is exactly what you want to see from a young hitter with his profile. The power is not simply theoretical. We've already seen glimpses of it against major league pitching.

The other side of the coin has been his plate discipline. Culpepper has struck out 11 times compared to just two walks through his first eight games, while his 42.5% chase rate would rank among the bottom 10 hitters in baseball if he maintained it over a full season. That's an area that will need to improve, but it's also an area where some growing pains should be expected.

Plate discipline is often one of the biggest adjustments for young hitters making the jump to the majors. Major league pitchers throw harder and locate more consistently. Breaking balls that might have been strikes in Triple-A suddenly finish outside the zone, while fastballs are coming in quicker than ever before. Young hitters have to learn which pitches they can damage and, perhaps just as importantly, which pitches they need to let go.

Culpepper is learning that lesson in real time, but the encouraging part is that he has already started to look more comfortable. After going 1-for-9 to begin his career, Culpepper has recorded a hit in each of his last five games. That's still an incredibly small sample, but he has looked more confident at the plate as the week has progressed, which is exactly what you'd hope to see from a young player trying to make one of the biggest adjustments of his baseball career.

The defensive side has provided a similar mix of excitement and growing pains. Culpepper got an immediate introduction to the difficulty of playing shortstop in the majors during the fifth inning of his first career game, when he had two ground balls turn into singles that had sub-.200 expected batting averages, meaning they were plays that should have been outs.

The first came from David Hamilton, who hit a ground ball that Culpepper wasn't able to range to quickly enough. Culpepper was forced to backhand the ball and couldn't complete the play. A few batters later, Garrett Mitchell hit another ground ball, and Culpepper took some extra time gathering himself before making his throw. The hesitation proved costly against a player with Mitchell's speed, as the throw was late and Mitchell beat it out for another single.

Neither play is something the Twins should panic about, but both are good examples of what Culpepper is going to have to learn at the major league level. Shortstop is an incredibly difficult position, and the difference between Triple-A and the majors can be exposed quickly. Runners are faster, balls are hit harder and the window to make a decision and execute a throw gets smaller. Culpepper got a taste of that immediately.

There have also been some clear positives defensively, particularly when it comes to his arm. That was one of the tools we knew Culpepper had coming into the season, and it has already translated to the major league level. He has recorded a max throw velocity of 86.3 mph, although he doesn't yet have enough throws to establish a reliable overall arm-strength measurement. Still, the arm is clearly legitimate, as we saw on a strong throw to get Coby Mayo at first base.

That's ultimately what makes this first week so interesting. We're not learning that Kaelen Culpepper is going to be an All-Star, that he's going to be the Twins' shortstop for the next decade or that his current strikeout and chase rates are going to be permanent. What we are learning is that some of the tools that made him a first-round pick and a top-50 prospect are real.

The violent swing is real. The ability to generate impressive bat speed is real. The raw power is real. The arm strength is real. At the same time, we've seen some of the areas where he still has work to do. His plate discipline needs to improve, and he needs to become more comfortable with the speed and demands of major league defense. That's perfectly normal for a young player making his debut.

And, to borrow an Aaron Gleeman-ism, perhaps the most important thing we've learned about Culpepper through his first week is that he has passed the lemon test. He certainly hasn't looked like someone who doesn't belong on a major league field. Culpepper has already connected on some big hits, shown off his elite swing speed, made some impressive throws and, yes, made some mistakes. But there has been enough good mixed in with the bad to suggest that the Twins' top prospect isn't simply being thrown into the deep end and hoping he can survive.

He looks like a young player who has some legitimate major league tools and is now figuring out how to put them all together. That's about as much as we could reasonably ask for after one week, and now comes the fun part: watching what he does with it.

What do you think of Kaelen Culpepper's first week in the majors? Are you encouraged by what you've seen so far, or are there areas that still concern you? Let us know in the comments.

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[Eris]

“The Twins called up their top prospect on August 7“

Nitpicking an otherwise fine article. Culpepper was the TD third ranked prospect behind Jenkins and Lackey. 
 

Does Culpepper have the defensive tools to remain at SS and be above average defensively. 

[Jeff K]

I've said it before, Kaelen just looks like a ballplayer when you watch him.  I am highly encouraged.

[TCanWins]

I like that he's getting on base more often and has helped continue some rallies at crucial times. He has great potential, I'm looking forward to seeing him improve over time as he gets more comfortable and lays off pitches outside the zone.

[TJSweens]

In other words, he is a rookie adjusting to the major leagues. I'm excited until Culpepper gives me reason not to be excited. He isn't Kriedler and he isn't Gray. Those are two good reasons to be excited. Culpepper has legitimate talent. That's another reason to be excited. 

Quit digging into analytics to figure out if this is real or not or if you should be excited. That's just overthinking. Do what old farts like me have done for decades...watch the kid play and enjoy.

[killertwinfan]

Why do our players come to the majors with huge gaps in skills.  Clipped may be plus everything except baseball fundamentals. Why isn’t this part easily taught and learned?  He’s been playing too long to be in the wrong spot for a cutoff throw, in the wrong spot to cover a base and not move efficiently and be in a position to throw when he fields the ball. 

[arby58]

Excellent analysis. Encouraged by the bounce back from a 1 for 9 start - of course, the 1 was a HR. Demonstrates a bit of mental toughness, which is important for a young player.

[arby58]

2 minutes ago, killertwinfan said:

Why do our players come to the majors with huge gaps in skills.  Clipped may be plus everything except baseball fundamentals. Why isn’t this part easily taught and learned?  He’s been playing too long to be in the wrong spot for a cutoff throw, in the wrong spot to cover a base and not move efficiently and be in a position to throw when he fields the ball. 

Some day, we’ll get to watch robots play - sure will be nice to finally get the human element out of the game.

[CharlieDee]

I liked what I've seen so far. But I think too many Twins fans look for reasons to criticize and complain rather than just supporting the team we have..

[bean5302]

Good article. I've liked what I've seen from Kaelen Culpepper so far in terms of poise. He doesn't look overwhelmed, and he's had good production. With so few plate appearances, the metrics are bound to shift a lot still, but the bat speed is nice to see.

[Trov]

I have not had a chance to really see him play.  However, I doubt he will be on SS for more than a season at best.  Barring injuries or trade of Houston he will be expected to take over SS and move Culpepper to 3rd or 2nd and Lee the other.  Sure it will be nice to see if he can field SS because that could open a possible trade of either him or Houston should they decide there is a strong need, but I think having to capable defending SS is not a bad thing. 

[PuckettPond]

He should start every game moving forward @ SS until Houston is ready next year. Then sliding to his natural position 2nd base.  They could be our Trammell - Whitaker double play combo.

[Possumlad]

1 hour ago, killertwinfan said:

Why do our players come to the majors with huge gaps in skills.  Clipped may be plus everything except baseball fundamentals. Why isn’t this part easily taught and learned?  He’s been playing too long to be in the wrong spot for a cutoff throw, in the wrong spot to cover a base and not move efficiently and be in a position to throw when he fields the ball. 

I agree, Clipped is just not a quality baseball player. Reminds me a lot of his brother Clippy, who was never a good virtual Word doc assistant. Maybe time to be done with their whole tribe.

Back on topic, though, Culpepper has been fun to watch his first couple weeks - I think we should try to find more guys like that.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, killertwinfan said:

Why do our players come to the majors with huge gaps in skills.  Clipped may be plus everything except baseball fundamentals. Why isn’t this part easily taught and learned?  He’s been playing too long to be in the wrong spot for a cutoff throw, in the wrong spot to cover a base and not move efficiently and be in a position to throw when he fields the ball. 

Yeahhhh!!! Whomever this "clipped" guy is, he needs to go!

I'm assuming you meant Culpepper somehow. But yeah, old school Twins came up perfect defensively, like Greg Gagne. Gagne's first 10 was at SS were like he was a sure fire Gold Glover. Except for the errors and bad play. Gagne had a -80 runs (literally) full season projection after his first season. Yeah. That's -8.0 WAR defensively. 

 

[mikelink45]

I love his youth, speed, athleticism and energy.  Yes I am a fan and I am not so analytic.  A good ball player is a pleasure to watch.  Now bring up Jenkins. 

[Coach]

Just now, PuckettPond said:

He should start every game moving forward @ SS until Houston is ready next year. Then sliding to his natural position 2nd base.  They could be our Trammell - Whitaker double play combo.

With Lewis and Lee at the corners, that could be a pretty strong infield, fielding and hitting.

[Senior Softball Guy]

His AB vs. Duran was significant to me. He battled one the nastiest of the nasty and was rewarded with a broken bat single. Very impressive!

[Woof Bronzer]

Absolutely!  Some growing pains are always expected.  But he looks like he not only belongs but could be a key piece of our next "core".  Play him every day the rest of the year and hope he keeps developing upward.  

[Woof Bronzer]

44 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

I agree, Clipped is just not a quality baseball player. Reminds me a lot of his brother Clippy, who was never a good virtual Word doc assistant. Maybe time to be done with their whole tribe.

 

This Clippy slander will not stand.  Clippy was a million times better than today's customer service bots.

[MikeNC]

I love the kid!  Am just as excited as when Lewis came up.  Newsflash: very very few step onto the MLB field and instantly have star skills at all facets of play.  A few growing pains comes with the territory.  But OMG say can you see the potential!!!  Unlike some other recent rookies/acquisitions he does not look like a deer in  the headlights at the plate.  The DuranDuran at bat being a very obvious example: that at bat looked like something you'd see from Jeffers, or Clemens, or Lee.  I'm a pepper!! Wouldn't you like to be a pepper too?!

[LambchoP]

Very exciting young player. Guys like him and Keaschal that play the game hard everyday with passion are fun to watch and generate hype and momentum. Would love to see a lineup this year with Keaschal, Culpeper and Jenkins in it!

[MeleMouth]

He looks like an excellent athlete with somewhat raw skills and has already shown some mental skills. It's too early to be too positive or negative, but there are reasons for optimism. The biggest caution is that strike zone control has been a concern since the Twins got him, not just since he was promoted, and now that he's in the majors he needs to improve quickly.

[rdehring]

4 hours ago, TJSweens said:

In other words, he is a rookie adjusting to the major leagues. I'm excited until Culpepper gives me reason not to be excited. He isn't Kriedler and he isn't Gray. Those are two good reasons to be excited. Culpepper has legitimate talent. That's another reason to be excited. 

Quit digging into analytics to figure out if this is real or not or if you should be excited. That's just overthinking. Do what old farts like me have done for decades...watch the kid play and enjoy.

Loved your comment, TJ.  And this ole guy has enjoyed watching him play his first few games.  Looking forward to his being one of the better second basemen in the league beginning late next year or early the following year.