Royce Lewis’s Spring Struggles: Fluke, or Red Flag?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

When Royce Lewis was selected first overall in the 2017 MLB Draft, the expectation was simple. He was supposed to be a future superstar and the face of the Twins franchise. Alas, his journey in professional baseball has been anything but a smooth ascent to the firmament. Multiple ACL tears and a lengthy injury history have interrupted his development at nearly every turn, forcing him to spend more time rehabbing than refining his game.

Even so, the flashes have always been there. The moments that remind you exactly why he went No. 1 overall have not been hard to find, especially when the lights were brightest. That's the version of Lewis everyone has been waiting to see over a full season, which is why this spring has drawn some attention for the wrong reasons.

In 45 at-bats this spring, Lewis batted .133/.160/.289, with 2 home runs, 2 stolen bases, 2 walks and 11 strikeouts. The surface-level production was rough, and even when you look a little deeper, the contact quality offered little reassurance.

Lewis did post a reasonably strong 107.4 MPH 90th-percentile exit velocity, but his average exit velocity was just 88.7 MPH and he hit just over 35% of his balls in play at 95 MPH or higher. For a player whose value comes from the damage he can do when he connects, that lack of consistent authority stands out.

It's also worth noting that this has not come against top-tier pitching. According to Baseball Reference’s opponent quality metric, Lewis faced a 7.9 out of 10 level of competition this spring, with 10 representing a typical major-league pitcher. In simple terms, much of his playing time came against minor-league arms, rather than big leaguers, which only adds to the concern one feels at first glance.

That's really where this conversation starts. It's fair to ask whether these struggles are simply a rough stretch or something more meaningful, but the answer depends on how much weight you want to give a handful of spring at-bats.

There are several reasons to believe this was basically a fluke. The most obvious place to start is his batting average on balls in play, which was an atrocious .114. That number isn't just low; it's essentially impossible to sustain. Even hitters who are consistently overmatched don't run a mark that low over time, which means some level of correction is inevitable as the sample grows.

Beyond that, there are still signs that the underlying impact ability has not disappeared. Lewis produced a 13.5% barrel rate this spring, according to Statcast, which tells us that his high EV90 wasn't fueled by hammering the ball into the ground. That figure would have placed him comfortably above the league average last season, and suggests that when he does square the ball up, the quality of contact is still there.

The disconnect comes from the inconsistency in getting to that contact. His overall exit velocity and strikeout rate point to a hitter who is not consistently on time or fully comfortable in the box. That would not be unusual, given the context of his offseason.

Lewis made adjustments to both his stance and approach over the winter, and that type of change often comes with an adjustment period. Even established hitters can look out of sync in spring training when they are working through mechanical tweaks, especially when the focus is on process, rather than immediate results. Pile the question of sample size on top of these considerations, and it's easy to downplay the problem.

Lewis has already shown that he can perform at a high level against major-league pitching, and he has done it in meaningful moments. The raw talent that made him the top pick in the draft is still present, and the underlying metrics suggest that his ability to impact the baseball has not disappeared. As we've already documented, though, there are reasons beyond the stat line to be concerned, too.

What matters more is how he looks once the games begin to count, when the focus shifts from adjustments to execution. For now, the results are not pretty, but they're also not especially predictive.

It is fair to acknowledge the slow start, and it's reasonable to monitor how he looks early in the season. At the same time, the combination of a tiny sample, an unsustainably low BABIP, and ongoing adjustments makes it difficult to treat this as anything more than a temporary lull. If you have to choose between the two, view this as an unimportant (though not strictly encouraging) spring blip. As the season begins, though, he sure hasn't answered the questions that hung over him all winter.

View full article

[DataNerd]

He's striking out 23% of his PA, which is slightly above his career 21%, but not significant in this amount of PT.  Ks would be the only main concern I would have for a hitter with this few chances, especially in ST.

[palmspringstwinsfan]

I saw almost no signs of life from his bat, which is especially concerning given how hyped up he was about Shelton as manager. Lewis is a very fragile player mentally so when he’s happy and not producing, that signals big problems. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

YES

[nicksaviking]

Well it's encouraging that some of these issues are due to strikeouts, when strikeouts have never been an issue for him. Early season timing issues are pretty common.

But I do worry about this being a systematic issue, where a lot of top prospects come up, rake at the plate right away, struggle after the pitchers adjust, and then the hitter fails to re-adjust. Obviously if that was an issue, getting a new coaching staff would be your first step, so fingers crossed.

But it's also possible the well has already been poisoned and it's too late to clean. Since there's no harm in it, I'm going to lean toward the optimistic view with Lewis. The payoff would be top level and it's not like there's a logjam of 3B prospects we're waiting on.

[HerbieFan]

Not a red flag....a RED flag.

[MGX]

If there is a Red flag for Lewis it's his overall performance after July of the '24 season. A SSS that is concerning is the last two months of last season. His Spring numbers carry little weight for me, but there is definitely concern. The real season is here & he needs to step it up & at least be a league average hitter & hopefully better.

[Rufus]

He's got options,  send him to St Paul to figure things out.  It worked for Torii Hunter and others in the past. 

[Wedman13]

38 minutes ago, palmspringstwinsfan said:

I saw almost no signs of life from his bat, which is especially concerning given how hyped up he was about Shelton as manager. Lewis is a very fragile player mentally so when he’s happy and not producing, that signals big problems. 

#1 TD writers are killing it again.  I guess spring has sprung.  And no, I'm not an investor.

#2 why do you say he is mentally fragile?  Confused on that.  His career has not worked out but mentally fragile is not how I would describe him.  Physically?  Fair.

 

[KirbyDome89]

42 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

#1 TD writers are killing it again.  I guess spring has sprung.  And no, I'm not an investor.

#2 why do you say he is mentally fragile?  Confused on that.  His career has not worked out but mentally fragile is not how I would describe him.  Physically?  Fair.

 

Mentally fragile is probably too far. I think it's fair to question his maturity (mentality) after some of his comments/actions the last few years. 

[Nshore]

Players like Lewis or Lee, etc. are probably very used to naturally being one of the top players or THE top player all the way up from high school.  Then all of a sudden they aren't even league average or barely hanging on to a job at all.  It must be quite a shock to their egos.  It might be the first time they've had to dig down deep and really work at it.  We'll see if they have what it takes.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

He's got options,  send him to St Paul to figure things out.  It worked for Torii Hunter and others in the past. 

That is a possibility , give him 30 or 40 games and see if his adjustments work out , if not , use an option then to st Paul ...

Sad he hasn't measured up to his pedigree but he gave us pleasure in 2023 ...

[PatPfund]

If he were on a bubble, this would get him cut, but it's Lewis not Kreidler (or Outman), so you hope it is just adjustment to the new swing, keep an eye on it, and if needed in a few weeks, consider a (hopefully short) trip to St Paul.

[NYCTK]

22 minutes ago, Nshore said:

A player like Lewis or Lee, etc. are probably very used to naturally being one of the top players or THE top player all the way up from high school.  Then all of a sudden they aren't even league average or barely hanging on to a job at all.  It must be quite a shock to their ego.  It might be the first time they've had to dig down deep and really work at it.  We'll see if they have what it takes.

If this were the case, the Twins scouting department needs to do a better job finding players that don't have such inflated egos. Mentality is one of those intangibles that teams do need to hone in on, and coach when possible. 

Just really, really sad to see the #1 overall pick, now 27 years old, having seemingly become a marginal player that is on the cusp of being a non-tender candidate: a .226/.278/.375 hitter with a .294 xwOBA over his last 629 PAs coming off the IL in July 2024, and a mediocre all-around baseball player providing minimal value with his defense or legs.  

And, yes, with questionable clubhouse presence, due to his multiple misguided comments to the press.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

Not a red flag....a RED flag.

That looks more like a BOLD flag..

[AceWrigley]

Red Flag.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, Sam Caulder said:

Fluke, or Red Flag

Not sure, haven't been following until now, but yeah I am still thinking there were systemic issues the past nine years with how Lewis and so many other guys underperformed. 

[AceWrigley]

The 2017 1st round draft hasn't produced much in the way of position players. Two first rounders have accumulated more BBref WAR than Lewis (4.0), Brent Rooker (8.8) and Jake Berger (4.6).

Any 2nd round picks from 2017 have any notable value? Daulton Varsho (17.8).

[OregonTwinsFan]

I believe he will be okay as long as he stays healthy.

[JADBP]

I still have high hopes for Lewis...but yeah, RED Flag.  

There are two options that the Twins can take:  1) send him down to focus on hitting (something he should have been doing all off-season with the MLB coaches) or 2) play him until he becomes a liability to the team (a very low bar this year) then send him down for retraining (as long as it takes) or trade him.  

I am sure they chose #2 because he was a 1-1 draft pick and it would look very bad if the Twins had to give up on him at age 27.  But, the reality is, IT DOES LOOK VERY BAD FOR THE TWINS!  They have badly trained/taught/coached/handled Royce.  From constantly training him in as a SS without really expecting him to stick there, then suddenly switching him to 2B or 3B or 1B or wherever they can discombobulate him the most. 

I think his constant injuries might could be traced to poor coaching, from either not addressing bad habits, improper daily routines, poor conditioning, improper game preparation, etc.  The Twins, over the last 10-15 years, have had a seemingly immense number of injuries.  Compare this to the LAD or NYY...how come you don't see as many injuries on these teams?  They must be doing something different...or doing it more correctly than the Twins.  

[mike8791]

Trying to be optimistic about 2026, but Lewis has given us no reason to believe he can turn things around.  As NYCTK wrote, a <.300 OBP over his last 600ABs is pretty indicative of his future potential. No, I wouldn't send him down yet, but a short lease would be appropriate - maybe thru May before making the decision.  After that, time to move Lee to 3rd and bring up Culpepper.

This should be the season to determine who's the core and who's not.  No one(other than TP) can really believe this is a competitive team in 2026.  Bite the bullet on underperformers and bring up the rooks as necessary.  These guys have had their chance(I'm looking at you Lee, Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, Ober, et. al.)  If they continue their lethargic play in the first 2 months,   don't waste another year on a dream.  See what the future brings!

[Thumbs Down Guy]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

That is a possibility , give him 30 or 40 games and see if his adjustments work out , if not , use an option then to st Paul ...

Sad he hasn't measured up to his pedigree but he gave us pleasure in 2023 ...

Agree. And he really is not “The raw talent that made him the top pick in the draft is still present,”, anymore. He is having to figure out who he is after so many injuries that forced this change.

[NYCTK]

21 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Compare this to the LAD or NYY...how come you don't see as many injuries on these teams? 

The Dodgers are notorious for pitching injuries actually. 

[Mike Sixel]

They aren't sending him down. It's just not happening. 

[JADBP]

9 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The Dodgers are notorious for pitching injuries actually. 

Whoops, you are right about the Dodgers and Pitchers!  Seems they abuse them and are willing to take on injury-prone or already injured P's.  Ouch.  Maybe I am glad I am not a LAD fan! 

 

9 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The Dodgers are notorious for pitching injuries actually. 

 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

That is a possibility , give him 30 or 40 games and see if his adjustments work out , if not , use an option then to st Paul ...

Sad he hasn't measured up to his pedigree but he gave us pleasure in 2023 ...

What pedigree?

The prospect rankings are some thing some over paid sports writer creates because they can.

He was fortunate enough to have bases loaded for some early home runs before reality set in.

His glove is below average and not improving; as some here are worried about the Twins defense. Lewis' pedigree is a farce;

He MAY turn into another OK average ball player who has to live down a Rookie flash of star quality, but he has no pedigree to tarnish.

 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Not sure, haven't been following until now, but yeah I am still thinking there were systemic issues the past nine years with how Lewis and so many other guys underperformed. 

Always some one else's fault; the common cry here.

[Coach]

It all started with; "I don't do slumps." 

[Hunter4848]

Another highly vaunted prospect who flashed early and the rapidly declined. Seems like a trend for the Twins. And yet you still have all these suckered gushing over the next round of prospects...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't sending him down. It's just not happening. 

Yup, when Eric Wagaman is the next man up at 3B, it’s Lewis or bust.