Twins Rotation Appears Set as Mick Abel Beats Out Zebby Matthews

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

On Thursday, Mick Abel took the mound for the Twins and — as has often been the case this spring — he put on a show. Averaging 96.2 MPH with his four-seamer and 88.1 with his slider, Abel piled up six strikeouts in 4 ⅔ innings, with Red Sox hitters whiffing on 11 of 42 swings. One day later, it became all but official that Abel will head north with the big-league club, with Zebby Matthews being optioned to Triple-A.

A month ago, I wrote that Pablo López's season-ending injury at the start of camp swung the door wide open for Abel to step up and seize a spot on the Opening Day rotation. He went and did just that, with his Grapefruit League numbers reflecting dominant form in five starts: 18 IP, 4 ER (2.00 ERA), 1 HR, 23 K, 3 BB.

That last number is perhaps the most important. Control has been Abel's main sticking point as he looks to get over the hump and establish himself in the majors. He walked seven in 14 innings with the Twins last year, and has averaged 5.1 BB/9 in Triple-A. This spring, the right-hander has done an excellent job of staying in the zone; up until he issued a pair of free passes in the fourth inning on Thursday, he'd walked only one hitter through 16 frames.

 

Acquired alongside catching prospect Eduardo Tait (who showed well in the Spring Breakout game earlier on Thursday) in exchange for Jhoan Duran at the 2025 deadline, Abel is one of the biggest reasons for excitement around Minnesota's future rotation outlook. The 24-year-old has been widely viewed as a top pitching prospect in the game, and his high-powered arsenal grades out beautifully according to pitch profiling models. 

 

Matthews entered camp with an ostensible leg up on Abel due to his more extensive MLB experience, but at no point has he quite looked like the best version of himself. His stuff is down and he's been hit hard, with seven earned runs allowed on 12 hits in 11 innings. He also issued four walks, straying from his signature strength.

Coming off a 2025 season where he struggled and missed time with a shoulder injury, it'd be nice to see Matthews dialing up his peak velocity and missing bats again, but that hasn't really been the case in March. He'll head to Triple-A where he figures to be the top rotation reinforcement waiting in the wings.

 

As Twins fans are all too aware, it usually doesn't take long for a need to emerge in the starting rotation. We could easily see Matthews back up before the end of April. But either way, Abel should have some runway to find his footing in the majors and I'm here for it.

The 6-foot-5 righty finished his up-and-down 2025 season on a brilliant note with six shutout innings against the Phillies. He'll now have a chance to pick up where he left off right out of the gates. Abel's talent is such that we could be looking at him as Minnesota's No. 1 starter by year's end, but with a 6.23 ERA through 39 MLB innings thus far, he's got plenty to prove in (hopefully) his first full season in the bigs.

 

How are you feeling about the Twins' rotation? Is Abel over Matthews the right choice? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

I hate this for Mathews, but it is not the end of his world. Abel beat Mathews by a wide margin. In fact in spring training Abel pitched the best of any Twins starter...and SWR and Bradley weren't bad. The Twins might still have a top of the line starting rotation. Maybe Falvey actually achieved this part of what he was hired to do. Plus Dasan Hill will be up sooner than we think. When Hill adds experience, muscle and strength, he will be an amazing addition to the starting rotation. 

[CRF]

Looking forward to seeing if Abel can continue to pitch like he did in ST, once the season starts. We sure could use that. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think it was the obvious choice.  At this point I think Matthews’ shot will come soon unless Ober can suddenly right the ship.  Right now, he’s a pretty big question mark.  

[strumdatjag]

I expect some here to press for Lucas Giolito to sign.  But it’s pretty clear that this is the starting rotation and it looks mediocre at best (but the abundance of ready and near-ready young arms is a big wild card!)   

Joe Ryan is an all-star quality starter.  
One has to admire SWR as a back ender.   He is a bulldog, in my opinion,  with the ability to keep his head in the game even when there is some adversity (errors extending innings for example).  
Then there are the talented young pitchers, Abel and Bradley.  If one falters, there are other young pitchers waiting in AAA  (Matthews. Morris, Prielipp and more…). 
The big question mark is Bailey Ober - but that question is quickly becoming an answer and that answer is NO.  I believe he may add a little velocity if he pitched fewer innings out of the bullpen.  
Overall, this is a mediocre rotation with some upside if the young pitchers excel, and downside if they falter.  The bullpen is below league average (which is better than the disaster that played out during the final weeks of the 2025 season). This appears to be a defensively challenged team, but even that poor defense is better than the pathetic offense displayed during Spring Training.   
I am very pessimistic about my chances of cashing in my 100 to 1 Vegas bet that the Twins win the World Series.  Take the under of 73.5 games.  
 

[Bodie]

Glad to see someone seize the opportunity!

In 50 years as a Twins fan, I've seen far too many guys "just not lose a spot" in spring training, and spend the season showing they sure as he... didn't earn it, let alone deserve to keep it!

Congratulations Mick Abel!!!  Now go out there and prove you belong. 

[Nshore]

The Twins have holes in their line-up and a ragged bullpen, so they'll have their problems even if the rotation turns out to be the finest in ML baseball.  But I'll give them credit for making the right call and giving Abel the opportunity.  Now bring up E-Rod.

[Coach Wheels]

The rotation, provided Ober and SWR stay healthy and provide more quality starts than not quality starts, is maybe the strength of this team; I think we all figured that to be true.

The bullpen and the offense are 2 pieces that I am less confident in and the configuration of both seems like a mess. If the projected wins number is 72.5, I'm taking the under.

[terrydactyls]

28 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

I am very pessimistic about my chances of cashing in my 100 to 1 Vegas bet that the Twins win the World Series.  Take the under of 73.5 games.  
 

Those were the best odds you could get in Vegas?  Or is that a typo and you meant 10,000 to 1?  That would seem reasonable odds.

[laloesch]

17 minutes ago, Nshore said:

The Twins have holes in their line-up and a ragged bullpen, so they'll have their problems even if the rotation turns out to be the finest in ML baseball.  But I'll give them credit for making the right call and giving Abel the opportunity.  Now bring up E-Rod.

I would have liked to have seen E-Rod make the team as well but I think the Twins want him playing everyday so it’s understandable 

[Linus]

Abel clearly won the job but I would have played the service time game with him. He may turn out to be a stud starter and we will want that extra year. 

[laloesch]

I’m actually stoked about Bradley and Abel in the rotation.  If I’m being completely honest I don’t think Ober is gonna be in the rotation long unless his velocity picks back up so Zebby will have a few starts to fine tune things

[jmlease1]

28 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

I expect some here to press for Lucas Giolito to sign.  But it’s pretty clear that this is the starting rotation and it looks mediocre at best (but the abundance of ready and near-ready young arms is a big wild card!)   

Joe Ryan is an all-star quality starter.  
One has to admire SWR as a back ender.   He is a bulldog, in my opinion,  with the ability to keep his head in the game even when there is some adversity (errors extending innings for example).  
Then there are the talented young pitchers, Abel and Bradley.  If one falters, there are other young pitchers waiting in AAA  (Matthews. Morris, Prielipp and more…). 
The big question mark is Bailey Ober - but that question is quickly becoming an answer and that answer is NO.  I believe he may add a little velocity if he pitched fewer innings out of the bullpen.  
Overall, this is a mediocre rotation with some upside if the young pitchers excel, and downside if they falter.  The bullpen is below league average (which is better than the disaster that played out during the final weeks of the 2025 season). This appears to be a defensively challenged team, but even that poor defense is better than the pathetic offense displayed during Spring Training.   
I am very pessimistic about my chances of cashing in my 100 to 1 Vegas bet that the Twins win the World Series.  Take the under of 73.5 games.  
 

I'm not expecting a WS title either, but your projections on the rotation make little sense to me. There may be question marks about the rotation because Bradley & Abel are unproven and Ober's velocity is down, but the upside isn't "mediocre".

Ryan, as noted, is an all-star. SWR gets knocked a lot, but is still actually quite young for his experience and has pitched well for the Twins: other teams would have loved to had a guy like him pitching as their 4th starter. Ober isn't a #2 starter any longer if he can't get his velocity back, but as a 4th or 5th starter he can still be additive (with the shortage of competent starting pitching in MLB, the bar for a 4th or 5th starter is lower than most people realize). But Bradley and Abel have very high upside. Both have the talent and the stuff to be playoff caliber starters, and if his control gets to where it was in ST, then Abel has ace written all over him. That puts the ceiling awfully high...not mediocre.

Are they going to get there this season? That's less likely: between injuries, inexperience, and just luck expecting a 90th percentile result from everyone is silly. But even the floor for this team's rotation is pretty solid and the best case scenario has Abel looking like a young ace, paired with an experienced all-star in Ryan, with Bradley chewing up innings and being a playoff caliber starter as your 3rd guy. There's still more upside to be found in SWR as well, and while expecting Ober to rediscover his velo at this point may be pie in the sky, if the expectation is for him to eat innings and hold down the 5th spot....he's probably viable even if he mostly repeats 2025. Add in the depth we have in AAA and they actually have the ability to survive even more injuries than we've already suffered.

I like the rotation. There's volatility in it with younger pitchers that aren't proven yet...but the upside is quite high. They might flunk out (I personally think there's people around here rooting for that, since the top prospects were picked under the Falvey regime) but they are at least worth watching and have real upside.

Very glad Abel is getting his chance: he earned it.

[Nshore]

9 minutes ago, laloesch said:

I would have liked to have seen E-Rod make the team as well but I think the Twins want him playing everyday so it’s understandable 

I agree - they should bring E- Rod up and play him every day.  Ted Williams was 22 years old when he hit .406.  Give E-Rod a chance to hit .407!

[strumdatjag]

3 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm not expecting a WS title either, but your projections on the rotation make little sense to me. There may be question marks about the rotation because Bradley & Abel are unproven and Ober's velocity is down, but the upside isn't "mediocre".

 

I’m not saying the upside is mediocre.   I’m saying that currently this rotation can only be ranked as mediocre at best.   Abel, Bradley and the abundance of young arms gives great hopes for an upside which may or may not be realized.  I think you are overly optimistic on Bailey Ober, however.  I hope you are right!

[jmlease1]

2 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

I’m not saying the upside is mediocre.   I’m saying that currently this rotation can only be ranked as mediocre at best.   Abel, Bradley and the abundance of young arms gives great hopes for an upside which may or may not be realized.  I think you are overly optimistic on Bailey Ober, however.  I hope you are right!

Clearly, you and I use "at best" differently. It might end up being a mediocre rotation, but if Abel kicks butt and Bradley is quality there's nothing mediocre about it as a unit.

Ober didn't have a good season in 2025, but still put up a bWAR of 1.1 and had a Game Score of 50+ in 16 of his 26 starts. That's pretty comparable to most teams 5th best starter. It's still disappointing, and means he'll likely be moving on rather than keep paying him if he can't get it back, but it's not a disaster if guys like Abel & Bradley are able to fill his previous role.

[D.C Twins]

I'm excited to see the Kids Play this year to include but not limited to Abel

Hopefully 2026 can be like the early to mid 1980s where a youth movement has the opportunity to begin the process of gelling into a contender over a couple years. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, strumdatjag said:

I expect some here to press for Lucas Giolito to sign.  But it’s pretty clear that this is the starting rotation and it looks mediocre at best (but the abundance of ready and near-ready young arms is a big wild card!)   

Joe Ryan is an all-star quality starter.  
One has to admire SWR as a back ender.   He is a bulldog, in my opinion,  with the ability to keep his head in the game even when there is some adversity (errors extending innings for example).  
Then there are the talented young pitchers, Abel and Bradley.  If one falters, there are other young pitchers waiting in AAA  (Matthews. Morris, Prielipp and more…). 
The big question mark is Bailey Ober - but that question is quickly becoming an answer and that answer is NO.  I believe he may add a little velocity if he pitched fewer innings out of the bullpen.  
Overall, this is a mediocre rotation with some upside if the young pitchers excel, and downside if they falter.  The bullpen is below league average (which is better than the disaster that played out during the final weeks of the 2025 season). This appears to be a defensively challenged team, but even that poor defense is better than the pathetic offense displayed during Spring Training.   
I am very pessimistic about my chances of cashing in my 100 to 1 Vegas bet that the Twins win the World Series.  Take the under of 73.5 games.  
 

“….upside if they excel & downside if they falter….” pretty much the case across our Roster and every other roster in the game ……… hence the saying, “that’s baseball”.

[GNess]

Abel's demonstrated potential along with Tait have me rethinking my disagreement with trading away Duran who has proven to be among the very best RP in all of MLB.

Perhaps this trade will turn out to be seen as a win for both sides?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

27 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Clearly, you and I use "at best" differently. It might end up being a mediocre rotation, but if Abel kicks butt and Bradley is quality there's nothing mediocre about it as a unit.

Ober didn't have a good season in 2025, but still put up a bWAR of 1.1 and had a Game Score of 50+ in 16 of his 26 starts. That's pretty comparable to most teams 5th best starter. It's still disappointing, and means he'll likely be moving on rather than keep paying him if he can't get it back, but it's not a disaster if guys like Abel & Bradley are able to fill his previous role.

mediocre /mē″dē-ō′kər/

adjective

1. Of ordinary or undistinguished quality. synonym: average. 
   Similar: average
2. Of a middle quality; of but a moderate or low degree of excellence; indifferent; ordinary. 
   Similar: indifferentordinary
3. Ordinary: not extraordinary; not special, exceptional, or great; of medium quality;

this rotation

was ranked 16 in xERA

 

no Pablo, no Paddack, Festa is iffy. There’s upside with Abel, but as constructed this rotation is literally mediocre.

its also the strength of the team :(

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Those were the best odds you could get in Vegas?  Or is that a typo and you meant 10,000 to 1?  That would seem reasonable odds.

Current MGM Twins lines 

 

[laloesch]

I don’t think the rotation will be the Achilles heel of this team, it will likely be the anemic offense again.  There are so many question marks with the infield.  Lewis looks to be picking up where he left off with his slump in 2025 which is extremely disappointing 

[Jeff K]

It seems like the Twins, more often than not, go with incumbency vs. performance.  I know, I know, it's a broad statement, but it's based on how it feels.  I am very happy that Abel won the starting position.  As others have stated, I'd like to see Emma and Gabriel playing for the big club.  Perhaps Larnach starts the year on the DL.

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I hate this for Mathews, but it is not the end of his world. Abel beat Mathews by a wide margin. In fact in spring training Abel pitched the best of any Twins starter...and SWR and Bradley weren't bad. The Twins might still have a top of the line starting rotation. Maybe Falvey actually achieved this part of what he was hired to do. Plus Dasan Hill will be up sooner than we think. When Hill adds experience, muscle and strength, he will be an amazing addition to the starting rotation. 

1st, the articles lately have been top notch.  Awesome job by the writers

2nd, for all the angst at the deadline trades last year, I wouldn't take back the Duran, Jax or Varland Trades for a second.  We were not contending with them.  We'll see, but we got two rotation starters, a stud catching prospect and super live lefty arm at AA/AAA.  What does our rotation look like right now without those trades?

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Abel clearly won the job but I would have played the service time game with him. He may turn out to be a stud starter and we will want that extra year. 

Not with pitchers. Pitch them while healthy. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, GNess said:

Abel's demonstrated potential along with Tait have me rethinking my disagreement with trading away Duran who has proven to be among the very best RP in all of MLB.

Perhaps this trade will turn out to be seen as a win for both sides?

I actually see two win – win trades already coming out of the last deadline. Trading Duran for Abel in an of itself might be a win-win if Abel meets his potential as a middle to top of rotation starter. That guy is easily worth a quality closer, and we have at least a potential high end catching prospect (but we are way too far a way to know if Tait is any good). The other is trading Jax for Bradley. I think both teams are going to be happy with what they got out of that trade. Now, if Roden can turn into a quality starting outfielder, I might start to think there was actually a plan last year … 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Wedman13 said:

1st, the articles lately have been top notch.  Awesome job by the writers

2nd, for all the angst at the deadline trades last year, I wouldn't take back the Duran, Jax or Varland Trades for a second.  We were not contending with them.  We'll see, but we got two rotation starters, a stud catching prospect and super live lefty arm at AA/AAA.  What does our rotation look like right now without those trades?

This is a much worse team on balance than last year’s 73 win team. If I had my druthers they wouldn’t have done the fire sale and instead invested into the contention window.

since they did the fire sale, I would have finished it out and stripped it down to the studs in the last offseason.

since they failed to gain any value for the remaining vets, and also failed to meaningfully supplement to make this a good team, I guess a couple decent pitchers is something, but lemonade out of lemons now, is hoping some of these veteran players go ape and have good trade value at the deadline while the next wave of graduating prospects gets their feet wet.

having Bradley and Abel is awesome, but I’d rather have a good team or a young team, this is neither.

[Wedman13]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

This is a much worse team on balance than last year’s 73 win team. If I had my druthers they wouldn’t have done the fire sale and instead invested into the contention window.

since they did the fire sale, I would have finished it out and stripped it down to the studs in the last offseason.

since they failed to gain any value for the remaining vets, and also failed to meaningfully supplement to make this a good team, I guess a couple decent pitchers is something, but lemonade out of lemons now, is hoping some of these veteran players go ape and have good trade value at the deadline while the next wave of graduating prospects gets their feet wet.

having Bradley and Abel is awesome, but I’d rather have a good team or a young team, this is neither.

This is well said, it 💯 is a bet on Wallner, Larnach and Lewis, Jeffers having a good year and Buxton being healthy.  Not sure I'd take that bet.  But for the moves they did I like  the return.  But I'm biased toward hope with prospects :)

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

This is a much worse team on balance than last year’s 73 win team. If I had my druthers they wouldn’t have done the fire sale and instead invested into the contention window.

since they did the fire sale, I would have finished it out and stripped it down to the studs in the last offseason.

since they failed to gain any value for the remaining vets, and also failed to meaningfully supplement to make this a good team, I guess a couple decent pitchers is something, but lemonade out of lemons now, is hoping some of these veteran players go ape and have good trade value at the deadline while the next wave of graduating prospects gets their feet wet.

having Bradley and Abel is awesome, but I’d rather have a good team or a young team, this is neither.

This is my view. I thought they were one, maybe two bats away from being good until the fire sale. 

[bean5302]

I don't know. I'm fine with Abel vs. Matthews going to Abel. 88mph Bailey Ober is still as good or better than Chris Paddack.