Minnesota Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Right Field

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Mike Watters-Imagn Images

This might sound counterintuitive for one of the least demanding defensive positions with an abundance of capable players, but great right fielders are hard to find. The low bar for fielding equates to a high bar for hitting. To wit: FanGraphs has only nine right fielders projected to be worth 2.0 WAR or more this season. Matt Wallner is one of them. 

His rampant swing-and-miss tendencies lead to a bad rap with many fans, but Wallner is one of Minnesota's most reliably productive players, still boasting untapped upside, and that's why right field ranks as one of the team's sneaky strengths. 

TWINS RIGHT FIELDERS AT A GLANCE

Starter: Matt Wallner
Backup: James Outman
Depth: Trevor Larnach, Alan Roden, Kody Clemens
Prospects: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 18th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 9th out of 30

THE GOOD
Huge power, huge arm: Wallner is the classic imagining of a right field specimen. He's not only been one of the Twins' best hitters since reaching the majors, but one of the better hitters in baseball — among 299 players with 800+ PA since 2023, Wallner ranks 20th in wOBA, nestled between Rafael Devers and Christian Yelich.

If we narrow that list down to primarily right fielders, Wallner is sixth, trailing only a quintet of superstars: Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuña Jr., Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts. Wallner's 49 home runs and 129 OPS+ over the past three seasons should not be discounted, regardless of the strikeouts and a relative down year in 2025.

His overall numbers were dampened by a poor finish, and at no point was he really mashing the way he did in 2023-24. It was also noticeable that most of his damage came with bases empty. Despite those factors, he was a solidly above average hitter (110 OPS+) and one of the team's most valuable players. I truly believe we saw Wallner at his worst. Time to see him at his best?

He's entering his age-28 season with nearly 1,000 MLB plate appearances under his belt. Wallner had a winter to ruminate on the adjustments opposing pitchers made against him, and now has a clear path to everyday playing time in right. While I suspect left field will be more of a revolving door, this position belongs to Wallner — especially because he held his own against left-handed pitching last year (.790 OPS in 97 PA) and the Twins won't have the luxury of platooning both outfield corners. 

He's going to be treated like a core lineup fixture, and he should be. I do think there is a point where you start thinking about future succession plans in right if certain negative trends from last year persist (see below), but we're not close to it.

THE BAD
Wallner undeniably took a big step backward in 2025. When dissecting his play, there are a few glaring issues that stick out. One is that he was simply terrible in the clutch. I'm inclined to dismiss this as statistical noise, given the sample size and how successful he was with RISP in 2023-24. Another is the defensive regression and missed plays. He's not a great fielder, but good enough to live with, if he's hitting.

Therein lies the real catch. Wallner was more of a solid hitter than standout last year, and at that rate he's a pretty mediocre player. What really plagued him in 2025 was that opposing pitchers seemed to have him figured out. It doesn't take a seasoned MLB scout to see that Wallner was getting attacked up in the zone with velocity and struggling to adapt or answer.

Again: he still hit 22 home runs and posted an above-average OPS, because the plan's not foolproof and he's capable of punishing any slight lapse in execution. But to cement his place in right field, Wallner needs to get back to being more than a mistake hunter. And he needs to show he can stay healthy after uncharacteristically going down with a couple of soft-tissue injuries last year.

If he does get hurt, I presume Trevor Larnach would shift to right, clearing up the left field logjam at least for some time. In terms of prospect pipeline, Gabriel Gonzalez is the name to watch here. Coming off a breakthrough season in the minors and freshly added to the 40-man roster, Gonzalez seems destined for right field (if not DH) due to his lack of speed and range. 

Should Gonzalez pick up where he left off last year, when he batted .329 across three levels and finished in Triple-A, he could start putting applying pressure quickly if Wallner's issues aren't resolved. But he too will face a high bar for offensive production in the majors, because he's likely to be an even worse fielder.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Right field projects as one of the team's biggest strengths, and one of the few positions where Minnesota is forecast to be a top-10 MLB team. A return to previous form for Wallner combined with good health could lift them into the top five at the position, while solidifying his entrenchment in right. (Or lifting his trade value as the Twins look to make room for rising prospects.)

Either way, right field looks to be in good hands. 

Catch up on the rest of our roster preview series:

• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Left Field
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Center Field

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[IndianaTwin]

Oh, boy. Let the Wallner bashing begin...  /s

[Linus]

I give him credit in that he’s trying to make adjustments. He is less open in his stance and has toned down the leg kick. Hopefully that closes up some holes in his swing. While I’m not a fan of three outcome baseball, if you will ever accept strikeouts its for a guy like Wallner and his power. The whole clutch thing is overblown. It’s more a function of the Twins not having many baserunners and opposing pitchers pitching carefully to him with men on. 

[rdehring]

Won't disagree, NIck, with everything you said about his bat.

I will be happy if I never turn on the Twins game and see Wallner in right field.  Yes, he has a big arm.  But too often those throws aren't on target.  He also takes bad routes and too often misplays balls on the ground.  I still remember what may have been his first game when he misplayed a ground ball that a little leaguer should have made.  

Big bat, yes.  Bat that could be huge part of the Twins offense, yes.  But please play him at DH.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

16 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Oh, boy. Let the Wallner bashing begin...  /s

Yup. Nick treating Wallner as a positive does not fit the general narrative around here.

[minman1982]

Sure. Give Wallner right field and let's see what he has to offer. The 2026 Twins are not going to be competitive so now is time to see if Wallner can be a part of a new core for future years, can be dealt at the trade deadline for additional assets, or is simply not the answer. He is a player that clearly has a ton of upside.

The power is certainly there. He is decent enough defensively that you can play him out there and he isn't a total liability. As he ages, he could become a DH candidate for the Twins or someone else down the road.

Personally, I hope he has a great year. That means that the options later this season are to trade him to a contender or build around him. Either way would be good for the future of the franchise. 

[PDX Twin]

46 minutes ago, rdehring said:

But please play him at DH.

One could say the same thing about many projected Twins starters...

[bean5302]

Hopefully, Wallner doesn't have another bad hamstring injury slowing him down this season. He had been very durable up until last year, and being able to run normally should help him on defense. Supposedly, Trevor Plouffe was working with Wallner on something, though it wasn't clarified what that something was.

The K rate will probably come down a bit as Wallner matures as a hitter and gets more experience. He'll likely always have a lot of swing and miss, but the power is real. I think there's a good chance he's a 4 WAR kind of guy in right field over a full season or a 3 WAR designated hitter if he can't get the awkward movement out of his fielding game.

Worst case scenario is he's a 1.5-2.0 WAR DH, IMHO, and they do not grow on trees so it's still valuable.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Won't disagree, NIck, with everything you said about his bat.

I will be happy if I never turn on the Twins game and see Wallner in right field.  Yes, he has a big arm.  But too often those throws aren't on target.  He also takes bad routes and too often misplays balls on the ground.  I still remember what may have been his first game when he misplayed a ground ball that a little leaguer should have made.  

Big bat, yes.  Bat that could be huge part of the Twins offense, yes.  But please play him at DH.

Big bat, with a massive hole. 

Matt Wallner had the 2nd worst whiff rate on fastballs up in the zone out of 303 batters that saw at least 50 such pitches (behind only Luke Raley if you're interested). 

And that gets significantly worse with FB that are above 94 mph. He has a whiff rate of 65.3% on good fastballs up in the zone, resulting is a 0.021 xwOBA, both worst in the league out of the 183 hitters that saw 50+ pitches of 95+. Which, to be fair, is the same hole, if less exaggerated, as Aaron Judge, but Judge is obviously a lot better at punishing mistakes he sees. 

Waller is just a very easy hitter to approach if you have a good fastball, which most pitchers do these days. High fastball and offspeed/breaking pitch down and Wallner will get himself out. Which kind of explains his poor performance in high leverage situations, perhaps? Most decent RP are going to have a FB that's able to attack that zone. 

[jmlease1]

The best result for the Twins is that Wallner returns to his hitting form of 2023-2024, but also plays more at DH because someone like GG is demanding playing time in the OF. (We'll see who fits better defensively; I think GG can be less harmful there, even if he doesn't have a tool like Wallner's arm, but YMMV)

I do think there's a reasonable chance that Wallner is less painful in RF this season; while he played full time after coming back from injury in June on, I don't think his legs were ever all the way back under him in 2025. That may have impacted him at the plate as well?

There's always going to be a cohort around here who will despise his game and minimize his positive impacts while loudly noting all of his deficiencies; such is life, I guess?

RF seems to have plenty of depth, but it should: it's historically the easiest position to fill with the least defensive responsibilities outside of DH. Wallner should be able to hold it down just fine until someone outhits him with more defensive impact. It could end up being where Walker Jenkins gets a lot of time initially if he shows he's ready and Rodriguez has laid claim to LF. Oh, darn. What a shame that would be! :P

[Metrodome Kid]

Always been a big Wallner guy and if last year was his floor, they'll be in good shape running him out there against every RHP.

 

 

[farmerguychris]

38 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Big bat, with a massive hole. 

Matt Wallner had the 2nd worst whiff rate on fastballs up in the zone out of 303 batters that saw at least 50 such pitches (behind only Luke Raley if you're interested). 

And that gets significantly worse with FB that are above 94 mph. He has a whiff rate of 65.3% on good fastballs up in the zone, resulting is a 0.021 xwOBA, both worst in the league out of the 183 hitters that saw 50+ pitches of 95+. Which, to be fair, is the same hole, if less exaggerated, as Aaron Judge, but Judge is obviously a lot better at punishing mistakes he sees. 

Waller is just a very easy hitter to approach if you have a good fastball, which most pitchers do these days. High fastball and offspeed/breaking pitch down and Wallner will get himself out. Which kind of explains his poor performance in high leverage situations, perhaps? Most decent RP are going to have a FB that's able to attack that zone. 

This is perfectly said.  Until Wallner can make the adjustment to connect on high fastballs, why would they throw him anything else other than junk out of the zone?  If he can't make this adjustment, his career could be much shorter than hoped for - IMO.

[MattWallnerFan]

Yes, finally! Give Wallner his flowers, even on a down year he was still productive

[MattWallnerFan]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I give him credit in that he’s trying to make adjustments. He is less open in his stance and has toned down the leg kick. Hopefully that closes up some holes in his swing. While I’m not a fan of three outcome baseball, if you will ever accept strikeouts its for a guy like Wallner and his power. The whole clutch thing is overblown. It’s more a function of the Twins not having many baserunners and opposing pitchers pitching carefully to him with men on. 

100% agree

[LambchoP]

You lost me at "one of the best hitters in baseball". I think this year is Wallner's last chance to prove he's our guy. With so many young OF fighting for playing time, he needs to put up those big power numbers everyone seems to think he's capable of. He should probably be a DH only at this point too...

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I give him credit in that he’s trying to make adjustments. He is less open in his stance and has toned down the leg kick. Hopefully that closes up some holes in his swing. While I’m not a fan of three outcome baseball, if you will ever accept strikeouts its for a guy like Wallner and his power. The whole clutch thing is overblown. It’s more a function of the Twins not having many baserunners and opposing pitchers pitching carefully to him with men on. 

Sorry but he had as much chance to drive in runs as the other players in this lineup and he had 40 which meant he was behind Buxton, Lee Larnach, Lewis, Clemens, Jeffers and France.  Are you telling me that Wallner kept coming up with the bases empty? 

[mikelink45]

This is a tough one because I want Wallner to succeed, but I do not want us to make up stats and stories to overlook his failures.  22 HRs 40 RBIs see my comment to Linus.  He was 8th among Twins in RBIs. 

I did not see the normal listing of player - backups - prospects, but I too would like to see Gonzales get an opportunity.  However, I had to laugh at this quote about Gonzales because it reflects on the fact that Wallner is a bad fielder.  

Quote

But he too will face a high bar for offensive production in the majors, because he's likely to be an even worse fielder.

And then I read

Quote

Wallner is one of Minnesota's most reliably productive players

That is not true - it is what we want him to be, it is what he was before last year.  I always look forward to these position evaluations, but this one just does not ring true.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

High fastball and offspeed/breaking pitch down and Wallner will get himself out. Which kind of explains his poor performance in high leverage situations, perhaps? Most decent RP are going to have a FB that's able to attack that zone. 

Looking at the splits, this doesn't seem to be the case. In innings 1-3 he hits .593 OPS with a 34% strikeout rate, innings 4-6 he hits .922 OPS and 7-9 .810 OPS with the strikeout rate below 30%. Oh, and vs starting pitchers it's .737 OPS and 32% K rate, whereas relievers .834 OPS and 24% K rate.

Seems like he was at his worst when starters had their best stuff going early in the game.

[Linus]

22 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Sorry but he had as much chance to drive in runs as the other players in this lineup and he had 40 which meant he was behind Buxton, Lee Larnach, Lewis, Clemens, Jeffers and France.  Are you telling me that Wallner kept coming up with the bases empty? 

This has been posted before here. The walk rate with men on was really high and yea he’s going to suffer when it comes to hitting a flare to left to drive in a run but hitting solo homers isn’t necessarily his fault. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

There seems to be a narrative here that Wallner is either an everyday RF or an everyday DH. Why can't we have 4 guys covering 3 OF positions and the DH spot - Buxton, Martin, Wallner, and Roden (some might want Outman as a true backup CF in there). Personally, I think Wallner is a mediocre OF at best and would have in the field no more than twice a week, DHing 3 times, but others may disagree. To me, we need to improve our OF defense. That means more time in the OF for Martin and Roden, more time at DH for Wallner. I get the idea that Larnach "has to play somewhere". My idea? Trade him and clear the logjam. 

This is a tryout year. Let's find out what we have.  We have to find a way to get at least 400-500 ABs for Wallner, Martin, and Roden unless they completely crap out. Same for Lee, Lewis and Keaschall. Larnach doesn't seem to be part of the long term solution so let's move him on. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

You lost me at "one of the best hitters in baseball". I think this year is Wallner's last chance to prove he's our guy. With so many young OF fighting for playing time, he needs to put up those big power numbers everyone seems to think he's capable of. He should probably be a DH only at this point too...

The statement was based on Wallner's rank compared to other hitters in MLB for wOBA. It also holds true for wRC+ or OPS+. Wallner's wRC+ 133 is ranked 19th in all of MLB for players with 600+ PA over the past 3 years. If 19th most productive hitters in all of baseball is "one of the best" by your standards, I don't think you should be lost.

Wallner's wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA, and OPS+ are all higher than Byron Buxton over the past 3 years, for example.
wRC+ 133 vs. 127
wOBA .361 vs .351
xwOBA .350 vs .343
OPS+ 129 vs 126

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

That is not true - it is what we want him to be, it is what he was before last year.  I always look forward to these position evaluations, but this one just does not ring true.

The Twins have 2 players who've made 200+ PAs with above average OPS in each of the past 3 years: Ryan Jeffers and Matt Wallner. I think that's a fair barometer of "reliably productive," no?

[Nshore]

I suspect that the pro-Wallner stuff is being written by the propaganda arm of the Twins' Central Division competitors.  Wallner may end up being the first player in ML history to get through a season with fewer RBI's than HR's.  This might be the year.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Big bat, with a massive hole. 

Matt Wallner had the 2nd worst whiff rate on fastballs up in the zone out of 303 batters that saw at least 50 such pitches (behind only Luke Raley if you're interested). 

And that gets significantly worse with FB that are above 94 mph. He has a whiff rate of 65.3% on good fastballs up in the zone, resulting is a 0.021 xwOBA, both worst in the league out of the 183 hitters that saw 50+ pitches of 95+. Which, to be fair, is the same hole, if less exaggerated, as Aaron Judge, but Judge is obviously a lot better at punishing mistakes he sees. 

Waller is just a very easy hitter to approach if you have a good fastball, which most pitchers do these days. High fastball and offspeed/breaking pitch down and Wallner will get himself out. Which kind of explains his poor performance in high leverage situations, perhaps? Most decent RP are going to have a FB that's able to attack that zone. 

How can Wallner attempt to correct this obvious flaw? Adjust his stance? Adjust his swing? Simply learn to not swing at high fastballs?

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, LambchoP said:

You lost me at "one of the best hitters in baseball". I think this year is Wallner's last chance to prove he's our guy. With so many young OF fighting for playing time, he needs to put up those big power numbers everyone seems to think he's capable of. He should probably be a DH only at this point too...

Wallner was really, really good in 2023 and in 2024. Are we really still arguing this?

He had a down year in 2025, and now it's his last chance? Why is 2025 so much more determinative for you than 2023 or 2024? Could it be because it had the result you expect to see from a high K player and you want those players gone from the franchise?

Look, if Wallner really does have a hole in his swing (that took pitchers 2 1/2 seasons to find) and he can't make adjustments, then he probably will struggle this season like he did in 2025 (even though he was still above league average as a hitter). Feel free to serve the crow...if he sucks. But even with the arguments that he "failed" last season and can be exploited, etc he had an OPS+ of 110.

I will never understand the instant gratification thinking that has people looking to dump a player with a career OPS+ of 127 at the first sign of trouble.

[Jacksson]

When did the Twinkies acquire LHP Josh Outman and why would he be the #1 backup to Wallner in RF??






















 

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Yup. Nick treating Wallner as a positive does not fit the general narrative around here.

What is the narrative? 

[KirbyDome89]

55 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Wallner was really, really good in 2023 and in 2024. Are we really still arguing this?

He had a down year in 2025, and now it's his last chance? Why is 2025 so much more determinative for you than 2023 or 2024? Could it be because it had the result you expect to see from a high K player and you want those players gone from the franchise?

Look, if Wallner really does have a hole in his swing (that took pitchers 2 1/2 seasons to find) and he can't make adjustments, then he probably will struggle this season like he did in 2025 (even though he was still above league average as a hitter). Feel free to serve the crow...if he sucks. But even with the arguments that he "failed" last season and can be exploited, etc he had an OPS+ of 110.

I will never understand the instant gratification thinking that has people looking to dump a player with a career OPS+ of 127 at the first sign of trouble.

Who is calling for Wallner's outright release? 

He posted good offensive numbers in 2023 and 2024 for sure, but his combined PAs from those two seasons don't even equate to a full season starting in the OF. He spent 3 months in AAA during 2024 because he struggled out of the gate, and those struggles persisted for a while in the minors. Obviously he turned things around, but saying it took pitchers 2.5 season's to find any sort of weakness just isn't true. 

Why is 2025 more important? Idk if it actually is, but again we're talking about 500 PAs in '23/'24 vs. 400 PAs in '25. A 110 OPS+ isn't impressive for a guy whose calling card is power, and it's not good enough to hold down a DH role full time. Wallner is an objectively poor defender, and at 28 that isn't likely to change, so the bat needs to carry him. People freak out when Larnach enters the convo, but he was viewed (and I'd say rightfully so) as expendable on the current roster. Part of that is Wallner's presence, but the rest; age, poor defense, questionable bat for DH, being a LH hitter, top OF prospects at AAA, arb eligible, all apply to Wallner after this season. 

[Wedman13]

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Sorry but he had as much chance to drive in runs as the other players in this lineup and he had 40 which meant he was behind Buxton, Lee Larnach, Lewis, Clemens, Jeffers and France.  Are you telling me that Wallner kept coming up with the bases empty? 

Two more RBI's and it would have been a career high.  So close!

[ashbury]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

One is that he was simply terrible in the clutch. I'm inclined to dismiss this as statistical noise, given the sample size and how successful he was with RISP in 2023-24.

I feel like a broken record in mentioning this, but when a writer I respect overlooks the problem, I feel like I need to say it.  There is more than one way to break down situational hitting.  b-r.com provides a convenient split that goes by how large the lead is in the game.  Wallner builds up his above-average OPS in situations where the lead (ahead or behind) was already 5 runs or greater - a massive 1.113 OPS in 2025.  In all the other situations, 4 runs or closer, his OPS last year was a very pedestrian .708.

If it were a one-year thing, I'd feel differently, but the same pattern existed in 2024 and 2023.  (2022 had only 65 PA total, but the pattern was very slightly in that same direction then too.)  Now, you might expect that every batter pads the stats during blowouts, when inferior pitchers might be on the mound, but the same breakdown across the majors in 2025 was only .746/.714 for OPS when the lead was 5+ versus closer games.  (Oddly, the Twins as a team actually have bucked this trend slightly the past two seasons.)

I think the disconnect comes from whether a fan looks at his total stats, or goes with the "eye test" of too seldomly seeing Wallner come through when the game is still actually on the line.  I don't in the least bit question Wallner's mental fortitude, but there is something very screwy going on that the player and his coaches need to figure out pronto.  I'm not going to let complaints about "Wallner bashing" stop me from presenting facts.  He's just not been as valuable at the plate as his totals suggest.  If it's just "statistical noise" it is long past time that it cancelled itself out.