Derek Falvey and the Art of the Late Offseason Move

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

One of the most familiar feelings for Twins fans each winter is watching the calendar flip to January (and be there for a couple of weeks) while the roster still looks unfinished. Other teams make splashy moves in December. The Twins, under Derek Falvey, tend to wait. That patience can feel maddening in the moment, especially after a quiet Winter Meetings, but recent history shows there is at least some method behind the madness.

Looking back at the past few offseasons is a helpful reminder that impactful additions do not always come early, and that value can still be found after the initial free-agent rush has passed.

2024-25 Offseason
Last winter might be the cleanest example of how this approach can work. None of the Twins' three notable free-agent signings arrived until February. Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe, and Ty France all came aboard late, and all three ended up providing real value.

Bader could not have worked out much better. Expectations were modest, but he delivered more production at the plate than anticipated (113 OPS+) while continuing to play elite defense. His move from center field to a corner outfield role helped the defense. Coulombe was a low-cost addition at $3 million, but he gave the bullpen a veteran left-handed presence and bridged the gap to the late innings. France was below average offensively (87 OPS+), but his steady defense at first base was outstanding, culminating in a Gold Glove award. Waiting did not hurt the Twins last winter. In several ways, it helped.

2023-24 Offseason
The 2023=2024 offseason followed a similar timeline, though with more mixed results. The Twins technically got started in late December, by signing reliever Josh Staumont. Still, the offseason did not truly take shape until the end of January, when Jorge Polanco was traded to the Seattle Mariners. That deal is still being evaluated through the long-term lens of Gabriel Gonzalez’s development. At the same time, Justin Topa could still play an essential role in the bullpen, especially if the Twins don’t make other additions this season.

February brought Carlos Santana and Jay Jackson. Staumont and Jackson struggled and provided little value, but Santana eventually found his footing. His bat took time to warm up, but he finished the season as a productive contributor (109 OPS+). Defensively, he had one of the best seasons in team history, earning a Gold Glove. The late timing of these signings did not guarantee success across the board, but it did allow the Twins to address needs without overcommitting early.

2022-23 Offseason
The outlier in this pattern came during the 2022-2023 offseason. That winter, the Twins moved quickly. Christian Vázquez (3-year deal) and Joey Gallo (1-year deal) signed in December. Then an unexpected opportunity arose in early January, when Carlos Correa became available again after failing physicals with two other clubs. The Twins pounced, reshaping their roster well before spring training. Even during a more aggressive winter, the front office still made a late addition, signing Donovan Solano near the end of February.

In hindsight, that aggressive approach did not produce better results. Gallo was unplayable by the end of the season, with a .686 OPS in the second half. Vázquez provided defensive value behind the plate but saw his offense collapse during his time in Minnesota (60 OPS+). Correa’s contract has since been unloaded, leaving the Twins paying $10 million per year for him to play for the Astros over the next three seasons. Acting early did not insulate the team from risk or disappointment.

So, what does all of this mean for the rest of the current Twins offseason? It means that silence in even the early part of January does not automatically signal failure. The front office has repeatedly shown a willingness to wait out the market, target specific fits, and strike when prices and roles make sense. That approach has frustrated fans plenty of times, but it has often led to solid outcomes.

Patience does not guarantee success, and it does not remove the need for meaningful additions. However, history suggests that the Twins are comfortable letting the board come to them. As February approaches, the lesson from recent winters is simple. The offseason is not over yet, even if it feels like it has been dragging on forever.

---

Will the Twins make any meaningful additions in the coming weeks? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

View full article

[dxpavelka]

Solano is the cautionary tale for expectations.  I remember questioning the signing.  Even more questions when he had 5 RBI by late May.  By the end of the season, we don't win the division without what he brought to the table.  So it CAN happen.  Nobody expected a Gold Glove from Carlos Santana either.  

[Riverbrian]

2022-2023 seemed to be quick developing market if I recall correctly.

I also think it's possible that the 2023 outlier earliness was due to an aggressive approach to Carlos Correa. 

I think it's possible that Correa was a singular target that off season. 

I think it's possible that we would have never signed Gallo and Vazquez if Carlos Correa would have just signed with the Twins without the Giants/Mets head fake. I believe Correa signing with the Giants caused the quick pivot to Gallo/Vazquez. 

 

[Whitey333]

So where has all this "patience" gotten the team?  Missed playoffs 4 of past 5 years, a perpetual state of minor additions that may offer very little help, signing guys very few other teams want, signing low level players and hope something sticks and further alienating a diminishing fan base.  Bottom line is its dumpster diving ad nauseum. It's the Twins way.  It's boring and although you can occasionally get a bargain with left over scrubs you mostly get another boring losing tea..  its the Falvey Way.

[rv78]

21 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

So where has all this "patience" gotten the team?  Missed playoffs 4 of past 5 years, a perpetual state of minor additions that may offer very little help, signing guys very few other teams want, signing low level players and hope something sticks and further alienating a diminishing fan base.  Bottom line is its dumpster diving ad nauseum. It's the Twins way.  It's boring and although you can occasionally get a bargain with left over scrubs you mostly get another boring losing tea..  its the Falvey Way.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Value is measurable, and the amount that has been added by Falvey's patience doesn't mean a **** thing if it doesn't lead to sustained success. It hasn't. So let's not pretend it's a good plan or even try to justify it by saying it adds value. Waiting for the scraps for value is not a winning formula and Falvey has proven that already. Is there value in signing a Josh Bell ($7M) and Victor Caratini ($7M)? Absolutely! But is it a winning strategy? Not yet. How many times do you have to try before you realize it isn't working. Maybe spending the total $14M spent on Bell and Caratini on 1 really good player, early in Free Agency, that could move the needle, would provide much more value. I know it would do 1 thing for sure....... It would raise the ceiling instead of raising the floor.

[TJSweens]

I've said before that Twins approach to free agency is like Howard's strategy for picking up women on the Big Bang Theory... "First we let the lawyers and the jocks thin the herd, and then we go after the weak and the old and the lame." 

The Twins late acquisition strategy amounts to letting other teams fill their needs first and then combing through the leftovers. Sometimes they get a Bader and sometimes they get a Staumont.

[mikelink45]

The Twins strategy has been to stay afloat.  Don't worry about rising too far, just give the fans the lottery hope - the odds are bad, but maybe...

[FlyingFinn]

And Falvey just did it again. We got Tristan Gray in a trade. Okay, now someone tell me about this guy who bats .163 or something against rh's. Do we need yet another light hitting infielder?

[Blyleven2011]

Reported this morning on trade rumors...

Twins traded for Tristan gray , infielder  ...

Late 20's with just a small sample of major league experience , another uninspiring move ...

This is the norm for FO and company , nothing changes year after year...

[Original_JB]

Gray will be 30 in March.

[jmlease1]

all of these acquisitions of terrible infielders are pretty awful. But I don't mind the twins being patient with the market and making moves late to try and get good value from the free agent marketplace, especially since the Cheap Bad at Baseball Business Pohlads have nerfed the payroll. It's fine so long as they're not dogmatic about it. You'd hope they would still also look for opportunities to strike before the markets get set as well?

I mean, Terry Ryan used to get all his business done by Christmas, as if finishing up your free agency period early got you some extra credit somewhere, and also used to apparently take some pride in coming in under his budget, so let's not pretend all was well previously.

The issue isn't that the Twins are late, it's that they've been adding crappy middle infielders who all look like dreadful hitters without being elite defenders, haven't touched the bullpen at all, and are carrying too many LH outfielders who aren't good defensively (and in some cases aren't good at...hitting.)

I hope it comes together, but if Outman is the 4th OF, Larnach is the DH, we've added no relievers, and the backup SS is pulled from one of these clowns, it will not be a successful offseason, despite solid moves for Bell and Caratini.

[JD-TWINS]

Why does anyone care how old Gray may be? Not every move ANY organization makes is supposed to be some breakthrough to a Championship. It’s a normal lower level move to try and find one of four guys that may elevate their game in ‘26. If it doesn’t happen, nothing lost. FO has signed/acquired 3-4 cheap infielders for depth until Culpepper can prove he’s ready…….. it’s essentially creating a “try out” for the AAA, depth spot (one only).

Just not a big deal.

[Baumer67]

We keep trading decent under the radar prospects for guys we could probably pick up off waivers.  Why do we need so many brutal utility men on our 40 man roster?  Make some of these trades for relief pitching.

[terrydactyls]

59 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

And Falvey just did it again. We got Tristan Gray in a trade. Okay, now someone tell me about this guy who bats .163 or something against rh's. Do we need yet another light hitting infielder?

The Twins traded Nate Baez for Gray.  I live near the home of Boston's AA farm team - the Portland Sea dogs.  I've never heard of Tristan Gray.

[bunsen82]

17 minutes ago, Baumer67 said:

We keep trading decent under the radar prospects for guys we could probably pick up off waivers.  Why do we need so many brutal utility men on our 40 man roster?  Make some of these trades for relief pitching.

We are accruing 3-4 players to find the best one.  Its not a bad strategy.  Most likely mean IKF is off the table.  He was the best remaining utility player.  For a backup SS/utility player I am more than ok with what we are doing if we put the rest of our money into the bullpen.  

As an aside,  we have gotten Jackson, Wagaman, and now Gray for - Eeles (utility), Baez (C) and Bragg (RP).  Of the players we gave up Bragg I would say has a fighters chance of being a big league player.   These are marginal upgrades and potential help for the big leagues.   

Also we did trade for Orze for Kisting.   I am anticipating more moves for the relief corps.   

[CRF]

Tristan Gray? Vince said it best..."What the hell is going on out here?"

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I agree with most of the posters on this topic.  It isn’t that the activity is early or late, it’s that it is poorly chosen.  I can definitely get behind the Bell and Caratini signings, but it’s only a start.  Falvey has certainly made some decent signings late, and has probably saved a little money,, but a greater number of them have proven ill-advised and mediocre.  

What I do like about this article is that it reinforces that there are still players out there to be signed, even if we as fans would rather all of the holes had been filled and a big bow put on the offseason by now.  For now, I will keep hoping for some good signings/trades that will help move the needle in the right direction. 

[mickster]

This is adding at the fringes of the roster, however I believe they represent slight upgrades.   The Central is a bunch of mediocre teams that aren't in the top 10, maybe the top 15 of the AL.   Our SP group may be one of the best.   Offense will be competitive.   Roberts is no longer with Chicago.  Skubal has one foot out the door in Detroit.   Now the IF's.   If we get some solid production from the bullpen and Lee, Lewis, Keachall, Wallner produce an uptick in offense.  The division can be won.  80-85 wins is all it will take.   Hanging out late may get Bader back.........that would be nice and maybe they convince Arraez to take a smaller deal.   Add those two and who knows.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, TJSweens said:

I've said before that Twins approach to free agency is like Howard's strategy for picking up women on the Big Bang Theory... "First we let the lawyers and the jocks thin the herd, and then we go after the weak and the old and the lame." 

The Twins late acquisition strategy amounts to letting other teams fill their needs first and then combing through the leftovers. Sometimes they get a Bader and sometimes they get a Staumont.

Most of the time they get a Margot.

[TheLeviathan]

The Twins PR team appreciates your inventive phrasing to replace "dumpster diving"

[DJL44]

So, who is going to be left without a roster spot in two weeks? My bet is one of the fading starting pitchers (Jon Gray, Jose Quintana, Martin Perez, Chris Paddack, Marcus Stroman, etc) decides to take a spot in the Twins bullpen to keep his career going.

[mickster]

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So, who is going to be left without a roster spot in two weeks? My bet is one of the fading starting pitchers (Jon Gray, Jose Quintana, Martin Perez, Chris Paddack, Marcus Stroman, etc) decides to take a spot in the Twins bullpen to keep his career going.

I would welcome the Sheriff back.

[Cris E]

Prices come down when you wait for the stale smell of flop sweat from the unsigned two weeks before Spring Training. When you know you have no money then you go to Dollar General early to get the best look at the remainders. That's the difference between Falvey and Ryan under the evolving Pohlad ownership. 

There are a few guys out there unsigned and useful looking, and the opportunities are there in MN for vets who want innings rather than to wait for a starter to break down. There will likely be a deal for one or two of them, just as someone else will tire of their OF options by March 7 and make a deal for Larnach. It's not perfect, but it's a pattern.

[TJSweens]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Most of the time they get a Margot.

And keep running him out there as a pinch hitter when he is 0 for 30 as a pinch hitter.

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

The Twins traded Nate Baez for Gray.  I live near the home of Boston's AA farm team - the Portland Sea dogs.  I've never heard of Tristan Gray.

Ever heard of Luis Guerrero?  That's who the Sawx traded to Tampa two months ago to acquire Gray.  Luis pitched a little bit for Portland.

/ edit - I just wandered over to TD's sister site Talk Sox, and from it I gleaned the information that they are apparently stocking up on marginal catching prospects, kind of like how the Twins are cornering the market on AAAA infielders; I don't see the level of outrage there yet, but it's early.  I'm just hoping for a "what was your favorite Tristan Gray moment for the Sox?" comment - never mind, I started one myself.  Anyway the trade was precipitated by the Sox needing a roster spot for a FA signing, so one can infer they got something in return for the guy they were going to DFA . 

[Eris]

The challenge in putting together a roster is that providing value is not the most meaningful metric. The goal is to make it into the postseason. Which means a roster of position players who averaged about 2 WAR each. Signing a player who provides 0.5 WAR at near league minimum may provide real value but it is unlikely to get the team closer to a playoff berth. 

[jkcarew]

The REALLY great thing about this…

with majority ownership not changing hands, we can look forward to this unique brand of Falvey wizardry for the indefinite future!!

My glass is always half-full.

Right now it’s half full of Fluoroantimonic acid.

[KirbyDome89]

16 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Why does anyone care how old Gray may be? Not every move ANY organization makes is supposed to be some breakthrough to a Championship. It’s a normal lower level move to try and find one of four guys that may elevate their game in ‘26. If it doesn’t happen, nothing lost. FO has signed/acquired 3-4 cheap infielders for depth until Culpepper can prove he’s ready…….. it’s essentially creating a “try out” for the AAA, depth spot (one only).

Just not a big deal.

No, it's not "nothing lost," because as of now at least one of the current quartet is going to be on the opening day roster as the backup SS. That's actually a pretty big deal when you consider the fact that all 4 options are terrible hitters and none of them are plus defenders. Bench spots on the major league team matter, wasting one of those spots to see if you might have AAA "depth," is terrible resource management. 

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

No, it's not "nothing lost," because as of now at least one of the current quartet is going to be on the opening day roster as the backup SS. That's actually a pretty big deal when you consider the fact that all 4 options are terrible hitters and none of them are plus defenders. Bench spots on the major league team matter, wasting one of those spots to see if you might have AAA "depth," is terrible resource management. 

My point is “Gray’s age” has no bearing on his value to The Team. He’s a short timer at age 26 or age 30. He or one of the other three guys acquired will be chosen to fill the role for a short period while Culpepper develops. One of them will probably be retained in St. Paul to guard against a Brooks Lee back spasm or like. These guys are a “short-term” bridge ………. hence my comment that if 2-3 don’t work out, there’s nothing lost.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

My point is “Gray’s age” has no bearing on his value to The Team. He’s a short timer at age 26 or age 30. He or one of the other three guys acquired will be chosen to fill the role for a short period while Culpepper develops. One of them will probably be retained in St. Paul to guard against a Brooks Lee back spasm or like. These guys are a “short-term” bridge ………. hence my comment that if 2-3 don’t work out, there’s nothing 

We agree that his age is irrelevant, which is why I didn't mention part of the equation. His (or any of these negative value backup SS) presence on the roster is the issue. You're burning a valuable bench spot and further diminishing already shakey production at SS when whoever wins the job gets playing time.