Why the Twins’ Offseason Points to Another Trade Deadline Sell Off

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson, Matt Krohn, Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Earlier this winter, it felt inevitable that the Minnesota Twins would be at the center of the offseason rumor mill. Rival fanbases could practically see the headlines forming, imagining Joe Ryan or Pablo López anchoring a playoff rotation elsewhere, or Byron Buxton providing a high-upside spark to a contender. It was the kind of speculation that follows a franchise balancing the aspiration to contend with real (if self-inflicted) financial constraints.

Then came the pushback. Derek Falvey and the Twins front office made it clear that the core was staying put. Ryan, López, Buxton, and the rest were not available. Minnesota was not tearing it down, and Falvey had the green light to add around them. On the surface, it was a declaration of intent—a statement that the Twins planned to compete in 2026.

Nearly a month later, the gap between words and actions has become hard to ignore.

The Twins have been dormant this offseason. Their most notable addition is first baseman Josh Bell, on a one-year deal. Bell has bounced from team to team in recent seasons, and over the last two years, he has combined for exactly 0.0 fWAR. That's not a condemnation of Bell as a player, but it is difficult to frame the move as meaningful roster-building. This looks less like an offseason retool and more like a holding pattern.

The fact that the Twins have said they will not trade their stars doesn't mean those players are truly off the table. If anything, Minnesota is operating like a franchise keeping its options open. Offseasons are for selling optimism and season tickets. Trade deadlines are for hard truths. The Twins can present themselves as contenders now, see how the first half unfolds, be sellers again, and regroup next winter if they choose. That flexibility feels intentional.

The context matters. At last season’s deadline, financial pressure drove Minnesota to sell, although that wasn’t the only reason. Relievers Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Louis Varland were moved with multiple years of team control. Carlos Correa and his contract were sent back to Houston, with the Twins footing some of the bill. Those were not baseball-only decisions, and while the Pohlad family’s sale of minority stakes may have brought in cash, it did not magically erase the underlying constraints.

It's particularly galling to see Minnesota refuse to improve, because the AL Central remains wide-open. Cleveland remains the division’s standard, with back-to-back division titles and a payroll lower than the Twins. Detroit is pushing forward with a strong young core. Kansas City is openly trying to contend during the Bobby Witt Jr. Era. Even the White Sox found a way to make noise, by landing Munetaka Murakami. Standing pat carries real risk, in a division where incremental gains can swing the race.

If the Twins stumble early, the math becomes simple. Another sell-off would not signal failure, so much as pragmatism.

Ryan would be the crown jewel. With two years of team control remaining, his value would be immense, especially in a market that has already rewarded teams dealing lesser arms like Shane Baz and Mike Burrows thanks to their control. The price would be enormous, and that alone may keep Ryan in Minnesota (for now).

López, however, presents a different equation. He's owed $43.5 million over the next two seasons, a significant commitment for a team watching every dollar. That makes him the more attainable arm for an acquiring club and potentially the more logical trade chip for the Twins. It also means the return for him would be less robust than what the team could get for Ryan.

Then there's Buxton—always the wild card, especially with his full no-trade clause. A contending team could talk itself into the upside of an elite center fielder, even with the injury risk baked in. With $45 million owed to Buxton across the next three years, he represents both hope and hazard, depending on your perspective.

None of this guarantees that the Twins will sell. But it does suggest that their public insistence on holding the core together may be doing more work than the actual roster moves. Minnesota has protested too much, and history tells us that franchises in this position often pivot quickly once July arrives.

If the Twins do make an about-face at the 2026 trade deadline, it shouldn't come as a shock. It will simply confirm what this quiet offseason has been hinting at all along.

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Are the Twins setting up to sell at the 2026 trade deadline? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Linus]

I think conventional thinking used to be greatest value was obtained during an off season where all teams could theoretically be buyers. With the expanded playoffs I wonder if that’s true. Perhaps the Twins figure they can get just as much at the deadline for Ryan as they could now. This gives them the bonus of having the chance to see if the club has success to start the year. I guess I’m just trying to make sense of their plan. 

[TNtwins85]

18 minutes ago, Linus said:

I think conventional thinking used to be greatest value was obtained during an off season where all teams could theoretically be buyers. With the expanded playoffs I wonder if that’s true. Perhaps the Twins figure they can get just as much at the deadline for Ryan as they could now. This gives them the bonus of having the chance to see if the club has success to start the year. I guess I’m just trying to make sense of their plan. 

I’ve never got the logic that trading in the off-season nets more than at the deadline. Yes there are more teams. Yes teams are trying to head in certain directions.  The trade deadline represents more desperation and desperation forces the hand when you’re having to beat the deals of 2-3 other desperate teams though. Also, teams at the deadline know what they want. The season has been played and teams know their weaknesses. What do all desperate teams need? Pitching. I think the Twins are banking on desperation come July because I can barely see a playoff bound team in this group. The big questions are A) do these 3 guys have good enough half seasons to garner a haul? B) are they healthy to be traded? It’s a big gamble with the injury histories of these 3. 

[Dman]

It's going to be an interesting season.  With so many young players it seems unlikely the Twins get off to good start, but as those players develop they could in theory be a decent team around June.  This whole season is dependent on the young players stepping up and making the team stronger.

The issue is it just seems unlikely.  If they can't get it together the return for Pablo and Ryan will never be better than at the deadline. If they can't get this team winning enough to compete for the second half of the season it seems they would almost be forced to sell high at the deadline and start a team with all young players.

We'll see how it plays out, but it seems like this is gonna be a big decision year for this franchise.

[mikelink45]

All our MLB transactions since the season ended have brought us Bell, Kreideler, Jackson, Orze, Wagaman and Brujan - their total war last year is 1.1.  I mean thata is the total for all six players.  Now that is really moving the bar!

Of course that does not take in our acquisition of Roden -0.6 or Outman -1.0 or Abel -0.2 or Bradley -0.6 for a total of -2.4 WAR in 2025.

10 players -1.3 WAR total.

I see some potential, but this is not generating enthusiasm. 

 

[hlsballer318]

Hoping they have a good first half of the season: is there a possibility they even become buyers? Or do they point to that success and stay?

[The Great Hambino]

13 minutes ago, hlsballer318 said:

Hoping they have a good first half of the season: is there a possibility they even become buyers? Or do they point to that success and stay?

If they didn't do any meaningful buying at the deadlines in 23 or 24, I have no idea why they would be buyers now in the incredibly unlikely scenario where they're competitive this year

[sweetmusicviola16]

These guys could still be traded anytime. ST and early season injuries happen. It also could be that better deals could come sooner depending on how the markets go for Tucker, Bichette, Framber and Bellenger go. The losers of those sweepstakes may be more willing to offer a better package when the dust all settles. 

[LastOnePicked]

49 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

ST and early season injuries happen.

But isn't that also true for Ryan, Lopez and Buxton? That logic cuts both ways.

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

I’ve never got the logic that trading in the off-season nets more than at the deadline.

The logic seems pretty clear to me. 30 starts of a premium pitcher are far more valuable to a team that sees itself in need and potentially in the hunt than 5-10 starts. Plus, it potentially allows the other team to keep their pitching prospects a bit longer in their farm system, delaying their service time.

[LastOnePicked]

I'm genuinely surprised that anyone thought they were going to bolster the roster. This is an organization in free-fall. They made a big show about keeping Lopez, Ryan and Buxton merely to avoid headlines that might further tank season ticket sales. The plan is to kick the can right into 2027. And it's an awful plan.

[sweetmusicviola16]

12 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

But isn't that also true for Ryan, Lopez and Buxton? That logic cuts both ways.

100%. I'd be making deals now if it was me. But what do I know, I'm not the genius Falvey or tough talking Tom.

[bean5302]

Ryan's value today +50MM.
Ryan's value at the trade deadline +30MM.
Ryan's value in the offseason +20MM.
Ryan's value on March 1st if he gets hurt and needs TJ = 0MM

It's a fools game to count your chickens before they hatch (target the trade deadline for value recovery).

A good GM has a plan to either compete or to find out what they need to compete. Falvey is doing neither.

[Nashvilletwin]

Meanwhile Tucker signs with the Dodgers for $240MM/4 years. That’s $60MM per year or about as much as the Twins total team budget sans Correa’s subsidy.

The salary cap with a high minimum is sorely needed. But look for a huge fight against it from the rich teams and the high priced players and their agents.  

2027 is going to be a bloodbath. 

[DJL44]

The Twins do have a couple spots open and I fully expect them to grab a couple free agents who will be happy to have a spot on an MLB roster instead of getting an NRI. That's not really a plan to compete.

[bean5302]

Tucker signed for $200-250MM less than predicted. Nobody in MLB wants to pay out big contracts right now so the Dodgers swooped in. The $60MM/yr thing is probably more like $40MM/yr with $20MM/yr for 4 years in deferrals or something like that.

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins do have a couple spots open and I fully expect them to grab a couple free agents who will be happy to have a spot on an MLB roster instead of getting an NRI. That's not really a plan to compete.

Probably trade for and extend Ryan Fitzgerald to 2yrs $12MM now that he's been DFA'd.

[Dman]

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Ryan's value today +50MM.
Ryan's value at the trade deadline +30MM.
Ryan's value in the offseason +20MM.
Ryan's value on March 1st if he gets hurt and needs TJ = 0MM

It's a fools game to count your chickens before they hatch (target the trade deadline for value recovery).

A good GM has a plan to either compete or to find out what they need to compete. Falvey is doing neither.

I think those are all good points though I think they can get about as much at the deadline as they can right now. If Ryan can stay healthy and with arms that is no sure thing.

IMO their decision to hold onto these guys plays into Ticket sales.  While given the current construction of this team there seems little hope they do well this year. At least there is hope and or reason to come and see games. Lose Ryan, Pablo and Maybe Buxton and I don't know if you can keep enough interest in this team as a bottom feeder.

Also ownership has a huge perception problem and giving up before the season starts is just gonna hammer the narrative of cheap owners who don't care about the fans into stone.  They have to at least give the perception they are trying to go for it this year.  Granted the lackluster acquisitions are already hurting that perception.

If it were me I would try and trade Ryan before the start of the season.  His value will never be higher with two full years of control and at a low cost coming off an All Star caliber year.  You don't have to risk poor performance or injury waiting for the deadline.  It hurts this years team, but if they get the right pieces back it could move them forward in future years.

I'd keep Pablo.  He is coming off a season of being inured and it would be selling low.  I'd risk keeping him to the deadline.  Same for Buxton.  I'd wait until the deadline.  That may be purely sentimental on my part as I just can't see this team not having their one true star player.  If he'll stay I'd keep him as long as he is willing to stay.

There's a lot of offseason left, but things still do look a bit grim to me.  This is a very hope based team that is lacking statistical proof that it will be a winner.  So many things have to go right it feels like it would take a miracle, but baseball is weird so who knows.

[D.C Twins]

Yes and yes...  The offseason strategy summarized:

Retain Lopez, Ryan, Buxton over the Winter and sprinkle a little 'we care' presser by yet another Pohlad on top and pray for a few more ignoramuses to buy season tickets. Fire sale #2 at trade deadline (less likely but possible around spring training) heading into the strike.

[D.C Twins]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

All our MLB transactions since the season ended have brought us Bell, Kreideler, Jackson, Orze, Wagaman and Brujan - their total war last year is 1.1.  I mean thata is the total for all six players.  Now that is really moving the bar!

Of course that does not take in our acquisition of Roden -0.6 or Outman -1.0 or Abel -0.2 or Bradley -0.6 for a total of -2.4 WAR in 2025.

10 players -1.3 WAR total.

I see some potential, but this is not generating enthusiasm. 

 

[Whitey333]

Yes trade those players soon while you can get something decent for them.  The team is going to be bad anyway.  Plus all of Ryan, Lopez and Buxton each have their own injury and at times performance issues.  Trade them while you still can.

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Ryan's value today +50MM.
Ryan's value at the trade deadline +30MM.
Ryan's value in the offseason +20MM.
Ryan's value on March 1st if he gets hurt and needs TJ = 0MM

It's a fools game to count your chickens before they hatch (target the trade deadline for value recovery).

A good GM has a plan to either compete or to find out what they need to compete. Falvey is doing neither.

This is exactly how I feel. 

They have reset the salary level but not the expectation apparently and I'm not sure that is going to work. The cost of this venture... is the future. This team has been cashing in on their future for too long now and keeping Joe Ryan is just another version of this paying today with the future.   

If it works... I'll tip my cap. If it doesn't I'll point to this off-season as a wasted pivot point. A pivot point that will have to happen at some point. The bill will come due. It's actually already due. 

Come trade deadline. You are a buyer or you are a seller. Anything else is standing still. After two years of standing still in buy position. We had our first year of selling in 2025. The most likely outcome of 2026. Year two of selling.   

As you point out... Joe Ryan will be less valuable. Ryan Jeffers will be less valuable with two months to go. We will be shopping for Josh Bells replacement with another limited budget because the budget won't increase until they start getting somewhere and trading at the deadline is not getting somewhere. 

It sure seems like 2026 would be the perfect year but flood the team with youth to get them further along the road for 2027 but that is not what they are doing apparently. 

Stepping back financially, stepping back in the bullpen, filling holes with waiver claims but not dialing down expectation nor making a full commitment to getting back as quickly as possible is one of the oddest plans I could imagine.

Apparently I don't have to imagine it. It's going to happen right in front of us all. 

 

[terrydactyls]

12 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

The logic seems pretty clear to me. 30 starts of a premium pitcher are far more valuable to a team that sees itself in need and potentially in the hunt than 5-10 starts. Plus, it potentially allows the other team to keep their pitching prospects a bit longer in their farm system, delaying their service time.

While 30 starts are better than 10 starts, if the ten starts are during a push for the World Series, their value may be higher than 30 starts for a "maybe get to the playoffs" team.  Plus, the receiving team also gets a full season the following year (however many games that might be).  And in regards to your second coment, adding pitching at the deadline also allows a team to keep prospects in the minors.  If no one is added to the roster at the deadline, prospects may have to be brought up earlier.

[TNtwins85]

12 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

The logic seems pretty clear to me. 30 starts of a premium pitcher are far more valuable to a team that sees itself in need and potentially in the hunt than 5-10 starts. Plus, it potentially allows the other team to keep their pitching prospects a bit longer in their farm system, delaying their service time.

Yes, when you’re talking about rentals. That’s why you don’t get much from a rental. We’re talking guys( Ryan, Lopez, Buxton) that have at least another year before FA. That’s why they cost more. Duran doesn’t fetch you 2 top 100’s if he’s only pitching you 25 innings in august and September. He doesn’t fetch you that in the off-season either for probably half the teams that are on the fence or worse this off-season. Desperation drives the price. That’s the reason nobody’s trading big prospects for big players on June 15th. Teams are more desperate July 29th than they are in June. Which means they’re less desperate in January. When a guy is controlled for longer than that season. The argument that there’s more teams in the off-season competing doesn’t hold water either. There’s not 30 teams who think they’re competing in the off-season just as there’s maybe only 20 teams actually in it July 29th.

[mluebker]

This article reminds me of waking up on a sunny morning, then looking to the northwest and seeing a dark, stormy sky. Might be able to enjoy an hour or two, but you know what’s coming because you’ve seen it so many times before.

[The Great Hambino]

I'd argue that you might find a better trade market for relievers at the deadline but in the offseason for starters.

At the trade deadline, teams have only one way to improve their team (trades) and only one way to pay for it (prospects - you're not trading away major league contributors if you're in contention).  So their capital available to use toward improving their team is limited and they must allocate their resources based on the needs of their roster.  If a team is in strong contention, they probably have a pretty solid rotation - at least enough to fill out a shorter postseason rotation.  Sure, everyone would like to upgrade, but they have to weigh the opportunity cost of not upgrading their lineup, for instance, at the expense of upgrading their rotation.  There's a finite pool of prospects that can really move the needle that each team has, so they have to allocate wisely.  So the pool of potential buyers for starters is smaller than the pool of contending teams, thereby shrinking overall demand for starters.  On the other hand, every team could use an upgrade at reliever.  So we see a lot more relievers moved than starters since the overall demand for relievers is higher, at least in quantity if not quality

In the offseason, on the other hand, there are a) more potential buyers since more teams are plausible contenders and b) more resources available to acquire upgrades since free agency is available.  Right now, quality free agent starting pitching is ultra expensive, so it's perhaps a more efficient allocation of resources to use prospects (or maybe even major league position players), and not dollars, to upgrade at starter.  In addition, you don't have the same opportunity cost problem since using prospects to add starters doesn't prevent you from upgrades elsewhere - you can go shopping instead in the free agent market.  Teams are also more willing to use major leaguers in trade for starters since they can be replaced with free agency - that's not an option in the middle of the season.  As for relievers, they're so volatile year to year that it's tougher to make a bet on them in the offseason.  Unlike at the trade deadline, where we have a better idea of who's good and who's not this year.

[LA Vikes Fan]

13 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

The logic seems pretty clear to me. 30 starts of a premium pitcher are far more valuable to a team that sees itself in need and potentially in the hunt than 5-10 starts. Plus, it potentially allows the other team to keep their pitching prospects a bit longer in their farm system, delaying their service time.

I think there is a difference between relief pitching, back end starters, and top 3 in a rotation staters. You almost always get more for relievers at the deadline as teams replace injured guys or think they're just a better bullpen away. Same for back end starters most of whom are acquired to fill injury holes or as starters today, playoff relievers tomorrow. The high end starters are are worth more in the offseason because of more market participants but sometimes you can get just the right fit at the right time at the deadline. My view that its usually better to wait on most guys and guys like Ryan are worth a kings ransom regardless of when you trade them. I don't see any need for urgency. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think the offseason strategy is pretty obvious. They ae going to maybe pick up one or two more relievers to go with acquiring Orze, try to get something for Larnach, and otherwise stand pat. Martin, Roden, Keaschall, Bradley, SWR, Lewis, Adams, Ohl, and Lee will get significant first half playing time to see if they can be long term solutions. We might even see one or more of Culpepper, GG, Jenkins, or Emma to see where they are.  Maybe the new manager instills life in a few guys. We'll play the first half and see if we are at .500 or better. If so, we'll try to add at the margins and hope for contention. If not, fire sale time, Everybody, and I mean everybody, will be available and we'll make at least 4-5 trades of big leaguers for prospects. The second half then becomes try out camp for the guys listed above plus Abel, Klein, Raya, etc. YOu have any promise at AAA?  You all get a shot.   

I think the odds are 60/40 we're in try out camp mode by August but I do think there's a chance we'll be better. It all depends on how Lewis (in particular), Lee, Keaschall, Wallner, SWR, Bradley, the new bullpen, etc. play. They don't all have to hit but most of them do.  Hold on tight, bumpy ride a comin'.  But hey, could be fun. Besides with the Dodgers now signing Kyle Tucker, aren't we all playing for runner up or Miss Congeniality any way?

[LambchoP]

I don't understand the signing of Bell. At best he'll hit what, .250 with 20 HR? How is that any different than Larnach, who we just gave like 6 million. Sounds like a move just to say they are trying to compete when really they know we are a last place team and are probably looking at another huge sell off at the deadline. Imagine the near MLB, high minors talent we can acquire by trading away Lopez, Ryan, Jeffers and maybe Buxton. We would no doubt have the most stacked and best rated minor league system in baseball. They just need to be SMART with the trades, which is hard for this organization to do....

[TNtwins85]

14 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Meanwhile Tucker signs with the Dodgers for $240MM/4 years. That’s $60MM per year or about as much as the Twins total team budget sans Correa’s subsidy.

The salary cap with a high minimum is sorely needed. But look for a huge fight against it from the rich teams and the high priced players and their agents.  

2027 is going to be a bloodbath. 

I’ve heard a lot of takes on the CBA negotiations being more geared towards owners vs. owners. Large market owners vs. smaller market owners and trying to navigate a way that the compensation evens out a bit more and that the players association keeps their mouths shut until the owners and league can get on the same page. I don’t think it’s gonna be as big of a fight between MLB and MLBPA as much as it’s gonna be in the owners box and league office. If they can’t come to a consensus on their plan vs. the MLBPA they may not come to a consensus to lock the players out. I believe they will change the luxury tax structure a bit and MLB will concede on the rules committee by granting more representation for the players. Also, trying to hammer out the TV situation for the league going into 2028. The advent of a salary cap and floor? I think that can gets kicked down the road at least one more time as there’s other things at play despite everyone thinking a cap/floor will be the big issue. I just don’t think it is this time around.