How the Twins Can Win by Outdeveloping, Not Outspending

[Sherry Cerny]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

 

The Minnesota Twins, like many mid-market teams, face the perennial challenge of competing with the Yankees, Dodgers, and other big-spending franchises. With limited payroll flexibility, the temptation is often to chase external talent through free agency. But there is a smarter path: maximize the value of homegrown players by paying them fairly as they continue to contribute productive WAR, and by investing in coaching and player development.

Teams like the Twins, Rays, and Guardians generate less local revenue from TV deals, ticket sales, and concessions. Even the central revenue sharing, which has each team contribute 48% into a pool that can exceed $110 million, is barely enough to keep the Twins afloat. And we all know why: winning in the AL Central does not pay like the Yankees’ golden goose.

The strategy of homegrown talent is not theoretical; it is already yielding results for teams like the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, two organizations that have consistently produced elite-level talent without breaking the bank. The Twins are slowly figuring it out, but there is a process to the madness that they can lean into to be successful in the fight for the postseason, as the Guardians have been.

The Twins front office relies heavily on WAR and analytics to create the best teams. So how does that translate to what is on the field?

Baseball success is not just about spending big; it is about maximizing value. At its core, the formula is simple. Fangraphs rates the cost per 1 WAR at around $8 million. Every player’s financial cost is their average salary plus any developmental costs. A homegrown player earning $1–2 million and producing 3.0 WAR delivers far more efficiency than a $15 million veteran producing the same value.

Coaching can be a multiplier, turning raw talent into tangible results by refining mechanics, improving decision-making, and building mental toughness.

The Cleveland Guardians provide a clear example. Low payroll has not stopped them from producing All-Star talent. Take José Ramírez, a $50,000 international signee who became a perennial All-Star, and first-round pick Francisco Lindor, who amassed more than 28 WAR before being traded. In 2024, 15 homegrown Guardians contributed 25.4 WAR to the playoff roster, showing that low acquisition costs and effective development can yield significant returns. While Lindor moved on to the Mets and has consistently thrived, Ramírez has become the heart of the team and signed a seven-year, $141 million contract extension with the Guardians, much like Byron Buxton, which gives them room to build around the veteran.

The Tampa Bay Rays take the concept even further, serving as the gold standard of “cheap WAR.” They drafted star Evan Longoria, who went on to produce 51.8 WAR, which at market value can be $8–10 million per WAR. He brought significant overall value to the team. Kevin Kiermaier delivered his WAR very efficiently; each “unit” of WAR he produced cost the team only about $132,000, according to DraysBay.

Behind the scenes, the Rays’ analytics teams, mental skills coaches, and mechanics specialists amplify development, proving that elite performance comes from out-developing, not outspending. When Stu Sternberg sold the team this fall, he used the revenue to give everyone a bonus for their hard work during his tenure, which included nine postseason runs and two World Series appearances.

The Twins have made progress. In 2024, 63% of their WAR came from homegrown talent, with players like 12th-round pick Bailey Ober delivering 3.5 WAR seasons. But gaps remain. Pitcher development has been historically inconsistent, coaching depth may lag behind the Guardians or Rays, and the Twins sometimes pay veteran-level prices for production that could be cultivated internally. Without deeper investment in coaching, Minnesota risks leaving WAR and payroll efficiency on the table.

The math for coaching investment is compelling. One homegrown player producing three WAR generates roughly $24 million in market value. While the Twins’ cost is a $1.5 million salary plus development, that creates a surplus of $22.5 million. Scaling up, improving the WAR output of just 10 players by one WAR each adds around 10 WAR, translating to roughly $80 million in added value.

The required investment in coaching infrastructure, around $5–10 million, is a fraction of the potential return, making it one of the highest-leverage moves a team can make. It is not just about coaching at the major league level but also at the minor league level. Coaching at minor league levels has left a sour taste in fans' mouths when a player comes up and is clearly not club-ready, affecting the whole team.

So what should the Twins do? Continue to prioritize coaching that strengthens a team atmosphere across mechanics, analytics, performance, and mental skills at every level of the organization. Build a development “stack” that ensures continuity from A-ball to the majors.

Work with players to become elite enough to offer extensions instead of arbitration. Measure ROI by tracking internal WAR and cost-per-WAR, benchmarking against the Rays and Guardians.

And finally, shift payroll focus: spend smarter, not necessarily more. By investing in coaching and development, the Twins can turn modest spending into elite results and compete sustainably in a mid-market environment.

Derek Shelton is bringing a new emphasis on coaching depth and player development to the Twins, aiming to maximize both performance and financial efficiency. Under his leadership, the club is investing in a full spectrum of coaching expertise, including mechanics, analytics, performance training, mental skills, and video review, to ensure players are developing at every level.

Shelton’s approach turns raw talent into measurable WAR, helping homegrown players reach their potential while keeping payroll efficient. He complements coaches like Pete Maki by building a coaching infrastructure that addresses every aspect of the game. Shelton is positioning the Twins to convert modest investments into elite production, following the models of teams like Cleveland and Tampa Bay.

It is not to say that the Twins have not already considered most of this and are doing their best to become competitive with their own talent. What is the actual difference between the three organizations? Do the Twins not hire enough? Do the Twins not hire the right people?

 

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[Parfigliano]

TC has to draft/develop because they can't outspend.

[Rufus]

Finally a realistic article on how the Twins can compete.  Not one grading them on their pay scale. Like I have said time and time again, "It is not how much money you spend, it is how you spend your money".  

[dxpavelka]

PREPOSTEROUS.  Read the room.  Haven't you heard.  The path forward MUST be to spend like drunken sailors.

[Riverbrian]

Hard to say where the problem lies but it's easy to say that there is a problem because offensive prospects are crashing against the major league shores.

Other than infrastructure suggestions that I'm not qualified to suggest. Development needs to go from zero to sixty by yesterday.

My suggestions... Fully commit to development at the major league level instead of fully committing to Ty France and Manual Margot types in an attempt to mathematically squeeze out marginal advantages. If you are playing Ty France every day because you believe that the product you are developing will lose games if they play instead of France. You need to stop and think about what that is telling you. 

If you have 3 left handed hitters on your 26 man roster and you are looking for right handed bats to complete your 26 man roster. Stop for a second and think about the damage you are doing to the future value of the young left handed hitters whose parts are being strip mined. 

Actually think about future value of your prospects in the process of making utilization decisions. Start Right Now!

 

[Whitey333]

Good article.  Well thought out.  Yes the Twins have to budget their payroll even better, much better than they have.  Falvey has done a very poor job of that in the past by spending too much on select free agents and not working on player development.  IMO Twins have done a poot job of developing talent.  Too many prospects regressing or flaming ouy.

[Reptevia]

This sounds like the same game they’ve been preaching for years. The reason they are signing bargain bin veterans is: the prospects coming up aren’t talented enough to play in MLB, or they stop progressing once they reach MLB. Not sure if just throwing the young guys out there to lose 100 games is the solution, but hey, we haven’t tried that in a while!

[rv78]

Based on this article, the Twins not only have failed at bringing in the right free agents but they have also failed at developing their own players. That's Captain Obvious. Both fall back onto Falvey's lap. If we don't have the right coaches then why are other clubs snatching up the ones that the Twins let go and then experience success, aka Popkins? Maybe it isn't the coaches or their ability, but the "plan", Falvey's Plan. I don't think plunging more resources into development and instruction is the answer. I think the "Plan" needs to change, or HOW the players are developed. Most everyone here knows Falvey fell head first into the HomeRun Plan and tried to make every hitter into a HR hitter even if they weren't good at it. Were the Coaches to blame or Falvey? To me that's an easy answer. Was the development and instruction bad? Yes. Who was to blame? Falvey and his Plan. Do the Twins need to spend smarter? Yes. Who do you blame for that? Falvey. Could the players being drafted just not be good enough and there was poor decision making on WHO to draft? Then again, Falveys to blame. They change the Manager, change the coaches, change the players and the one constant that doesn't change is Falvey. If they don't right the ship soon, you absolutely cannot look at anyone else to blame.

[bean5302]

Falvey has failed miserably at developing.

Positional WAR 2025
Terry Ryan 32%
Derek Falvey 48%
Non-Twins Draft 20%

Pitching WAR 2025
Terry Ryan 9%
Derek Falvey 34%
Non-Twins Draft 57%

As I recall, Terry Ryan and Bill Smith's guys were still providing the majority of "home grown" talent until the last year or two. Embarrassing.

[mikelink45]

My favorite move was bringing Gardenhire to the Twins - he has the experience of working with young talent and might be the voice and brains to figure out how to continue their development in the majors. 

[TwinsDr2021]

26 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Based on this article, the Twins not only have failed at bringing in the right free agents but they have also failed at developing their own players. That's Captain Obvious. Both fall back onto Falvey's lap. If we don't have the right coaches then why are other clubs snatching up the ones that the Twins let go and then experience success, aka Popkins? Maybe it isn't the coaches or their ability, but the "plan", Falvey's Plan. I don't think plunging more resources into development and instruction is the answer. I think the "Plan" needs to change, or HOW the players are developed. Most everyone here knows Falvey fell head first into the HomeRun Plan and tried to make every hitter into a HR hitter even if they weren't good at it. Were the Coaches to blame or Falvey? To me that's an easy answer. Was the development and instruction bad? Yes. Who was to blame? Falvey and his Plan. Do the Twins need to spend smarter? Yes. Who do you blame for that? Falvey. Could the players being drafted just not be good enough and there was poor decision making on WHO to draft? Then again, Falveys to blame. They change the Manager, change the coaches, change the players and the one constant that doesn't change is Falvey. If they don't right the ship soon, you absolutely cannot look at anyone else to blame.

Completely agree with this, the twins have done a terrible job at roster construction. They have a 40 man loaded with guys that didn't debut until their mid 20's or later; that isn't how to build a roster it is the way to supplement it. It is no surprise that the Twins best players/core are Buxton, Lopez, and Jeffers, Guys like by SWR, Keaschall, Lewis and Lee are following up. Guys brought up later either need to be traded quickly or moved on from, generally speaking guys like Gordon, Julien, Miranda, Martin, Keirsey, McCusker, Roden and the rest don't have a long shelf life, you roll them though and move them out for a proven player or prospect, you don't wait around for them, because most won't ever turn out as you hoped, of course a small percentage will but they need to be supplement players not full time starters, otherwise you end up with a team of average or below replacement level players.  Most teams have a guy or two playing an important role (starting or bench)  that came up at 25 or later, but not a roster full of them. 

It is important for a mid market team to have those really good players that come up early and succeed and the mid 20 something players that help for a few years (because they never really cost you anything, but you have to enough you can move on from them quickly when they don't pan out) 

[Parfigliano]

Anyway you look at the organizational downturn/dysfunction all roads lead back to Falvey.  He makes the decisions and the best decision seems to be to not have him in the building making the decisions.

[DJL44]

They're not going to be able to develop their way to success while performing so poorly at acquiring international free agent pitching.

Development is great, but then you also have to be the best at identifying talent, while having fewer resources available to identify talent. You can have a fundamentally sound team that plays better than their talent, but many of the most talented teams are also pretty good at preparation and fundamentals.

They have to spend money, and they have to spend it wisely. The best $$ spent is on extending contracts for your own players, assuming you can find talented players to invest in.

[Nashvilletwin]

Thank you.  Finally a post that supports the reality (which I’ve been harping about on the TD for years - much to all my fellow TDers annoyance I’m sure).

Finding and institutionalising systems/processes for being better at player development (all the way from drafting/initial signing through transitioning to a legitimate above average every day major leaguer) is the only way a small/mid-market team can hope to achieve any sort of sustainable competitive advantage in modern MLB, most certainly in a non- salary cap environment. 

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

Excellent, well researched, article that I found insightful.  Thanks for taking the time to write it.

 

 

[Omardog]

The Twins path to sustained success is blocked by the grifting silver spoon Pohlad ownership.  Nothing will change until they sell and completely remove themselves from team activities.

[tony&rodney]

There is such a fine line between the average player and a slightly better player. Most teams don't have many superior talents despite the goal of accumulating stars. The Twins have exactly one, Byron Buxton, and he has missed a ton of games in his career. Gathering talent is challenging. It seems like the Twins may be moving away from sluggers in the draft, choosing athletic types recently: Houston, Culpepper, and Jenkins. Development is crucial but apparently alignment up and down throughout the organization is tougher than it should be. Times change and unless one is actively within a system it is difficult to assess the issues. I can speak to my employment at a given time with a specific analysis, but that work place situation may not resemble my experience a decade later. 

Baseball is a particularly brutal business where evaluations and investments in players is fluid. One constant could be the expectations, routines, and positive atmosphere. 

One thing doesn't change though and that is that hard calls need to be made with players, whether it is via promotions, demotions, or release. I have often wondered how much a front office is caught making or not making a decision based on their affinity for a player. Talent wins and correctly identifying talent is a tough job.

Falvey was hired in 2016. What was his plan? How much has he done to implement his plan? How has he shown learning in self-reflection on his plans? We are discussing putting in place a development policy in 2025. It is a good idea. Does that seem odd to discuss this as the leader begins Year Ten? 

[MGX]

Informative article.

My takeaway is still that there is plenty of money to spend. Based on the numbers provided - $324M in revenue & $154M in payroll for 2025. It's also noted on average it's $20M for the coaching staff, so that's $174M leaving $150M to cover other expenses for the business. While I'm not qualified to guess what the other expenses in the business amount to, I have to imagine 2025 was a profitable season for the Twins.

If that's the case why does it feel like we may be looking at a sub $100M payroll for 2026? If they could have $154M or even $140M for payroll they should be able to build a competitive & entertaining team. 

[Sherry Cerny]

5 hours ago, Rufus said:

Finally a realistic article on how the Twins can compete.  Not one grading them on their pay scale. Like I have said time and time again, "It is not how much money you spend, it is how you spend your money".  

Thank you, Rufus. You have no idea how excited that makes me as the writer :) 

 

[twinstalker]

I actually think the identification of hitting has been such a problem that it clouds development.  The fact that the Twins haven't taken a flawed hitting prospect and worked a little magic is deeply concerning, yes, but the main problem is they're missing the guys who have a real chance.

[Craig Arko]

Probably the only viable path to success. I wish them luck.

[Sjoski]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

TC has to draft/develop because they can't outspend.

Exactly...isn’t this a accurate headline?

“How do the Twins plan to win without spending?

 

[The Great Hambino]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They're not going to be able to develop their way to success while performing so poorly at acquiring international free agent pitching.

Development is great, but then you also have to be the best at identifying talent, while having fewer resources available to identify talent. You can have a fundamentally sound team that plays better than their talent, but many of the most talented teams are also pretty good at preparation and fundamentals.

They have to spend money, and they have to spend it wisely. The best $$ spent is on extending contracts for your own players, assuming you can find talented players to invest in.

Their failures in the international free agent market really don't get talked about enough.  Emma Rodriguez is currently the only international free agent acquisition on the 40-man (not counting other teams' IFAs that they've acquired via trade).  And per Fangraphs roster resource, there's no one else in that bucket even that close to knocking on the door.  Their highest-ranked prospect other than Emma from their own IFA bucket is Jose Olivares at 16, and he just went unprotected in Rule 5.  Next best is teenaged A-ball outfielder Eduardo Beltre at 20.  Both are ranked lower by Pipeline.

The Sano/Kepler/Polanco IFA class was a long time ago.  Since then, who would even be considered their second-best acquisition from this path after Emma?  For a team on their budget, they absolutely need to be better in this area.

ETA: I forgot about Arraez.  So there's one from the last 16 years.  Still needs to be much better than that

[Riverbrian]

32 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Their failures in the international free agent market really don't get talked about enough.  Emma Rodriguez is currently the only international free agent acquisition on the 40-man (not counting other teams' IFAs that they've acquired via trade).  And per Fangraphs roster resource, there's no one else in that bucket even that close to knocking on the door.  Their highest-ranked prospect other than Emma from their own IFA bucket is Jose Olivares at 16, and he just went unprotected in Rule 5.  Next best is teenaged A-ball outfielder Eduardo Beltre at 20.  Both are ranked lower by Pipeline.

The Sano/Kepler/Polanco IFA class was a long time ago.  Since then, who would even be considered their second-best acquisition from this path after Emma?  For a team on their budget, they absolutely need to be better in this area.

ETA: I forgot about Arraez.  So there's one from the last 16 years.  Still needs to be much better than that

I agree the Twins are extremely light in this department.

However... The league really has to do something about the IFA's. These kids are being signed at 16 and clubs have 5 years before they have to make 40 man decisions and this puts them at age 21 come decision time. A 21 year old who is worthy of 40 man spot is generally a pretty special player. Erod is only 22 and has already burned an option. GG is 22 years old and he has to be given a 40 man spot and start burning options. 

On the other hand. College players drafted at 21 or 22 can be held in the organization for 4 years until they are 25 or 26 before a 40 man decision comes a knocking and that's going to get the Twinsdaily crowd saying things like too old to be a prospect. When Erod and GG are given 40 man spots... They are the same age as Wallner after his 4 years at Southern Mississippi.  

21 and 25 is a big difference. The players who get protected are top of the pile and the really special players like Juan Soto,,, They reach free agency at age 26 and those players get those 13 year contracts.  

MLB has to figure out how to balance this better. If they find that way to do that... I assume that we would see even more players from the Dominican or Venezuela in the majors because they'd get that extra bit of time to mature.   

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

Their failures in the international free agent market really don't get talked about enough.  Emma Rodriguez is currently the only international free agent acquisition on the 40-man (not counting other teams' IFAs that they've acquired via trade).  And per Fangraphs roster resource, there's no one else in that bucket even that close to knocking on the door.  Their highest-ranked prospect other than Emma from their own IFA bucket is Jose Olivares at 16, and he just went unprotected in Rule 5.  Next best is teenaged A-ball outfielder Eduardo Beltre at 20.  Both are ranked lower by Pipeline.

The Sano/Kepler/Polanco IFA class was a long time ago.  Since then, who would even be considered their second-best acquisition from this path after Emma?  For a team on their budget, they absolutely need to be better in this area.

ETA: I forgot about Arraez.  So there's one from the last 16 years.  Still needs to be much better than that

1/3 of MLB players come into the league as international free agents. Brusdar Graterol is their last IFA pitching prospect and that was 2019. Luis Gil went to the Yankees but he may be more of a Yankee development success than a Twins talent identification success. The Twins gave him up for Jake Cave so they obviously didn't think he would amount to much. Francisco Liriano was way back in 2005.

51 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

However... The league really has to do something about the IFA's. These kids are being signed at 16

And there's usually a kickback to someone to get a deal. The bigger market teams do a better job getting the best players and it's mostly about money. The Twins are picking over the leftovers after the more corrupt teams pay the buscones.

The dysfunction of the baseball culture in Latin America - Yahoo Sports

[Jim H]

The Twins have 11 coaches on their major league staff for 2026. 3 pitching coaches and 3 hitting coaches. For 26 players. I believe they have had pretty much the same number, maybe 1 less, the last few years.  I don't know the exact number of coaches for each team in the system, but I think there has been at least 2 hitting coaches and 2 pitching coaches at every level. That doesn't count coordinators and analytic staff for the entire system.

It is hard to pinpoint where the problems are in developing talent. They have not done a particularly impressive job with international kids, high school kids, or really college kids either.  I would guess it is a combination of identifying talent and not developing the talent very well.  Since they seem to change out a whole raft of coaches each year, maybe they are trying to fix the problems. Or maybe they just don't really stay with anything or anybody long enough to make any plan work.

[bean5302]

21 hours ago, MGX said:

Informative article.

My takeaway is still that there is plenty of money to spend. Based on the numbers provided - $324M in revenue & $154M in payroll for 2025. It's also noted on average it's $20M for the coaching staff, so that's $174M leaving $150M to cover other expenses for the business. While I'm not qualified to guess what the other expenses in the business amount to, I have to imagine 2025 was a profitable season for the Twins.

If that's the case why does it feel like we may be looking at a sub $100M payroll for 2026? If they could have $154M or even $140M for payroll they should be able to build a competitive & entertaining team. 

The Twins are right in the middle for revenue vs. salary in MLB. The 50% split is targeted as that's close to the break even point. From paying front office employees, faciliites, coaches, managers, marketing, giveaways, vendor management, etc, there are an enormous amount of costs associated with running a baseball team.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

This is the case with not just the Twins, but almost every midwest small market team in MLB. The Twins are never going to have a top 5 payroll. I think for the most part, the Twins have done a good job of developing players at a lower level, but there has been a lot of struggle with translating that to the big leagues. Hopefully the new big league hitting coach can help with that.

[Major League Ready]

On 11/19/2025 at 8:02 AM, bean5302 said:

Falvey has failed miserably at developing.

Positional WAR 2025
Terry Ryan 32%
Derek Falvey 48%
Non-Twins Draft 20%

Pitching WAR 2025
Terry Ryan 9%
Derek Falvey 34%
Non-Twins Draft 57%

As I recall, Terry Ryan and Bill Smith's guys were still providing the majority of "home grown" talent until the last year or two. Embarrassing.

This often-floated idea that the teams producing the most young talent (Milwaukee, Tampa, Cleveland) are doing so by drafting is misguided.  These teams acquire roughly 40% of their young talent from other teams.  If we look at the players on the 2025 (97 win) Brewers that produced more than 1.5 WAR, 3 of their top 13 players were drafted, and 2 were international signings.  59% of their WAR was from players acquired from other teams, all but one of them (Yehlich) were unproven when acquired.  Of course, they developed those players as well but they didn't do a superior job of drafting.

2025 Brewers (97 wins)
	Brice Turang		Drafted	4.4
	William Contreras		Acquired	3.6
	Sal Frelick		Drafted	3.6
	Jackson Chourio		Intl	2.9
	Caleb Durbin		Aap	2.6
	Isaac Collins		Aap	2.6
	Christian Yelich		Trade	2.4
	Freddy Peralta		AaP	3.6
	Chad Patrick		AaP	2.6
	Quinn Priester		AaP	1.9
	Brandon Woodruff		Drafted	1.8
	Abner Uribe		Intl	1.7
	Trevor Megill		AaP	1.5
	Acquired by:
	Drafted		3	28%
	International Draft		2	13%
	Acquired as Prospect		7	52%
	Trade for Proven		1	7%
	Free Agent		0	0%

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, MGX said:

Informative article.

My takeaway is still that there is plenty of money to spend. Based on the numbers provided - $324M in revenue & $154M in payroll for 2025. It's also noted on average it's $20M for the coaching staff, so that's $174M leaving $150M to cover other expenses for the business. While I'm not qualified to guess what the other expenses in the business amount to, I have to imagine 2025 was a profitable season for the Twins.

If that's the case why does it feel like we may be looking at a sub $100M payroll for 2026? If they could have $154M or even $140M for payroll they should be able to build a competitive & entertaining team. 

Payroll does not equal the amount paid to players.  They have benefits of around $17M according to Spotrac, and another roughly $22-23M in draft / international draft bonuses.