How the Twins Can Win by Outdeveloping, Not Outspending

[Riverbrian]

17 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This often-floated idea that the teams producing the most young talent (Milwaukee, Tampa, Cleveland) are doing so by drafting is misguided.  These teams acquire roughly 40% of their young talent from other teams.  If we look at the players on the 2025 (97 win) Brewers that produced more than 1.5 WAR, 3 of their top 13 players were drafted, and 2 were international signings.  59% of their WAR was from players acquired from other teams, all but one of them (Yehlich) were unproven when acquired.  Of course, they developed those players as well but they didn't do a superior job of drafting.

2025 Brewers (97 wins)
	Brice Turang		Drafted	4.4
	William Contreras		Acquired	3.6
	Sal Frelick		Drafted	3.6
	Jackson Chourio		Intl	2.9
	Caleb Durbin		Aap	2.6
	Isaac Collins		Aap	2.6
	Christian Yelich		Trade	2.4
	Freddy Peralta		AaP	3.6
	Chad Patrick		AaP	2.6
	Quinn Priester		AaP	1.9
	Brandon Woodruff		Drafted	1.8
	Abner Uribe		Intl	1.7
	Trevor Megill		AaP	1.5
	Acquired by:
	Drafted		3	28%
	International Draft		2	13%
	Acquired as Prospect		7	52%
	Trade for Proven		1	7%
	Free Agent		0	0%

Agreed.

Yet it still boils down to development in the end. In order to acquire players as prospects... you have to develop something of value that interests the other teams you are trading with and then develop the prospect acquisitions that you acquire. 

There is no way around it. The Twins have to improve development across the board on players drafted or acquired.     

[Major League Ready]

45 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Agreed.

Yet it still boils down to development in the end. In order to acquire players as prospects... you have to develop something of value that interests the other teams you are trading with and then develop the prospect acquisitions that you acquire. 

There is no way around it. The Twins have to improve development across the board on players drafted or acquired.     

Absolutely.  It is far and away the most crucial element of success.  I just wanted to point out that the premise these teams draft better than others is not all that accurate.  They find the most quarters in the couch cushions and they also make more trades for prospects than most teams.

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They find the most quarters in the couch cushions

The Twins need to find those 1964 or older quarters.

A quick look = 20 of 40 rostered Twins came from outside of the draft with 1 IFA and one Ind. League guy.

[DJL44]

Interesting to see the Brewers also underperforming when acquiring IFA talent. Makes me wonder which orgs are doing really well. 1/3 of players are international free agents. Is any org getting more than 33% of their talent from IFAs? I think the Astros are one of the better orgs in this area.

[The Great Hambino]

I suppose theoretically more IFAs get traded before they get to the big leagues than drafted players since, all else being equal, 16 year olds will spend more time in the minors than 18-21 year olds, and the longer you're in the minors, the better the chance you get traded before making your MLB debut.  Maybe that at least partially accounts for the seemingly low # of homegrown IFAs on some teams?

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I suppose theoretically more IFAs get traded before they get to the big leagues than drafted players since, all else being equal, 16 year olds will spend more time in the minors than 18-21 year olds, and the longer you're in the minors, the better the chance you get traded before making your MLB debut.  Maybe that at least partially accounts for the seemingly low # of homegrown IFAs on some teams?

The clock simply works against them. Signed at 16... 5 years until you have to make a 40 man decision on them. Only the superstar will be trusted for MLB duty and ready at age 21.

So the non-superstar player with potential... if they survive the 40 man decision at age 21... Will burn through options to buy more maturity time and become forced 26 man decisions at age 24.   

It's a tough clock to deal with and it probably produces a lot of casualties compared to the high school draft pick that is two years older and two years older each benchmark. 

Or the popular draft pick perhaps safer pick these days... the player drafted out of college that you have 4 years to make a single decision on and that comes at age 26.    

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The clock simply works against them. Signed at 16... 5 years until you have to make a 40 man decision on them. Only the superstar will be trusted for MLB duty and ready at age 21.

So the non-superstar player with potential... if they survive the 40 man decision at age 21... Will burn through options to buy more maturity time and become forced 26 man decisions at age 24.   

It's a tough clock to deal with and it probably produces a lot of casualties compared to the high school draft pick that is two years older and two years older each benchmark. 

Or the popular draft pick perhaps safer pick these days... the player drafted out of college that you have 4 years to make a single decision on and that comes at age 26.    

If they don't make the 40-man at age 21, they can stick in the org another 2 years before they have to be added or lost as minor league free agents. That gets them to age 23, 3 years of options is age 26 before they have to make the MLB team or be lost forever.

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they don't make the 40-man at age 21, they can stick in the org another 2 years before they have to be added or lost as minor league free agents. That gets them to age 23, 3 years of options is age 26 before they have to make the MLB team or be lost forever.

That is true

High School draft picks will still be two years older. College Draft Picks can in theory be controlled into their 30's. 

[Sherry Cerny]

21 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

Their failures in the international free agent market really don't get talked about enough.  Emma Rodriguez is currently the only international free agent acquisition on the 40-man (not counting other teams' IFAs that they've acquired via trade).  And per Fangraphs roster resource, there's no one else in that bucket even that close to knocking on the door.  Their highest-ranked prospect other than Emma from their own IFA bucket is Jose Olivares at 16, and he just went unprotected in Rule 5.  Next best is teenaged A-ball outfielder Eduardo Beltre at 20.  Both are ranked lower by Pipeline.

The Sano/Kepler/Polanco IFA class was a long time ago.  Since then, who would even be considered their second-best acquisition from this path after Emma?  For a team on their budget, they absolutely need to be better in this area.

ETA: I forgot about Arraez.  So there's one from the last 16 years.  Still needs to be much better than that

Why did I think that we had more.... thank you for this. Other teams for SURE have more. I looked at our FCL and omg......Astros and Padres are tied for first for international free agents. then obviously the Dodgers and Mets....but then weirdly the SF Giants.

[TNtwins85]

Omg!!!! Love this article I vote this article of the year on Twins Daily. It hits a point that should talked about more! I have said this from time to time over the last year which what has been going on. Brilliant article! Thank you!

[TNtwins85]

On 11/19/2025 at 9:19 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

Thank you.  Finally a post that supports the reality (which I’ve been harping about on the TD for years - much to all my fellow TDers annoyance I’m sure).

Finding and institutionalising systems/processes for being better at player development (all the way from drafting/initial signing through transitioning to a legitimate above average every day major leaguer) is the only way a small/mid-market team can hope to achieve any sort of sustainable competitive advantage in modern MLB, most certainly in a non- salary cap environment. 

This path would make even more sense in a salary cap environment. It would be hamstrung by a salary floor environment. I agree with you and have said on here just as you have that the best sustainable model for any team is through development. The most valuable commodity in baseball since the beginning of professional baseball in the late 1860’d has and always will be young inexpensive talent. Anything else you hear from the league as far as a salary cap( the owners) or a salary floor (mlbpa) disincentives the game and the fans. Period! 

[Elliot]

An overlooked aspect of developing players is the defensive side. To me, the biggest mistake of the current Twins FO and player development, is not finding a defensive home for young prospects early enough.  The end result is that they are constantly being moved around and asked to learn new positions, often at the major league level. I have to believe that screws with their minds and impacts the offensive side of their game. If I had a major complaint with Rocco it would be his messing with positions and batting orders to the detriment of young players.

The 40 man roster currently includes 7 players listed as infielders: Kody Clemens, Ryan Fitzgerald, Mickey Gasper, Edouard Julien, Luke Keaschall,  Brooks Lee, and Royce Lewis. I challenge anyone to tell me what position they should be playing at the major league level. Lewis seems to be settling in at 3^rd base, but he came up playing SS and CF. It wasn’t that long ago that they were attempting to move him to 2B.  None of the others have demonstrated that they are even average defensively at any infield position. For the moment, Lee seems set at SS, but that is only by default since no one else can play there. A team only needs one, maybe two utility players. Willi Castro filled an important role with the Twins in that he could adequately play a number of positions. However; the defensive bar for a utility guy is different than that for an everyday player. Castro was quickly exposed when forced to play as a regular for extended periods. Austin Martin is that guy. Lee may be that guy. Maybe even Clemens. OK, not embarrassing, at a number of spots, but not really adequate at any position long term.

I am sure the FO is eagerly awaiting my considerable expertise on player development, so here it is. Quit trying to develop a full roster of utility players.

Tell Royce Lewis that he is the starting 3^rd baseman unless injured. As an old guy I recall Koskie, Gaetti, and even Rich Rollins as players that took less than stellar athleticism and turned it into at least average or a bit better defensive skills. Lewis is far more athletic than any of those 3.

Make it clear to Lee that he is not an everyday SS on a winning team. I was a big Lee fan, but having watched him for a year I am worried that he will never be able to make things work unless he gets his head straightened out. If he remains at SS, it should only be to try to increase his trade value to some oblivious team. I believe he has indicated his reluctance to play 2B, which may be fine as his lack of speed and agility may make him a third, or even first baseman.  If so, he better get it going at the plate.

Figure out a spot for Keaschall now so that he can spend winter and spring acclimating himself since he will almost certainly break camp with the team next year. When he does he should know definitely what his spot is. I am thinking LF.

Make every effort to break camp with either Kaelen Culpepper or Marek Houston at short.  Tell them their responsibility is to play above average defensive SS; don’t worry about offense. Bat ninth and learn while providing what the team needs most: defense at SS.

The Twins have chosen a lot of SS’s high in recent drafts. Taking good athletes is a good approach. The problem has been the philosophy of leaving them at SS until they prove they absolutely cannot handle it at the MLB level. By that time they are at AAA or even MLB and have wasted a number of years in which they could have been honing their skills at another defensive spot (maybe Clupepper). It shouldn’t take player development personnel long to see if someone has the chops to play SS in the big leagues (definitely Houston). If there is offensive upside, get them to their best defensive position early.  I love that they did that with Kyle Debarge. (end result – gold glove at 2B).  If they do not have a lot of offensive upside, then develop them as a utility player.  There is always need for someone to fill in at SS short term while also providing backup at other positions.

NOTE – I am interested to see if the Twins make a run at the Player Promotion Incentive with Jenkins, Culpepper, or any other young player in the top 100. They could always use another high draft pick to use on a SS.

 

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, Elliot said:

Make every effort to break camp with either Kaelen Culpepper or Marek Houston at short.  Tell them their responsibility is to play above average defensive SS; don’t worry about offense. Bat ninth and learn while providing what the team needs most: defense at SS.

I agree with most of what you said, but they can find a different no-hit SS to play the position in 2026 while allowing Houston to develop in the minors. He needs at least a year at Double-A. There is no reason to burn service time on a rookie for a predictably terrible season. Let the rookies earn the promotions. Playing on scholarship is bad for the Twins and bad for the players.

[TNtwins85]

I would love to know what the development budget for each team is. Also it would probably go a long way for the public to know what their specific team is focused towards. With how free agency is it catches headlines because it’s public. I think that is part of the reason why everyone focus’s so hard on free agents. If people had data that shows how a team is focused as far as a development budget it would be just another way for fans to focus their energy. Also, that’s a way that the players union drums up excitement by focusing everything on free agency. Take the Twins for example what excites the fan base? Carlos Correa, Donaldson. Why? Because it’s what makes headlines. It’s what the Yankees and dodgers do. So when they do what they do it makes them excited. When they trade away those guys they think the world is ending. But if you attached a tangible number of development value to a prospect couldn’t that be viewed as a free agent number and drum excitement as well? Especially when you can assign stats and money to create a “worth” as a salary number does? Also knowing that that number delivers more fruit as opposed to a 29 or 30 year old that will inevitably get worse. I think that could help a fan base get on board with prospects more.

[Mahoning]

The Twins almost always draft ahead of the big market teams but what good has it done them? Where are the young stars? The article is persuasive.

[Riverbrian]

On 11/22/2025 at 9:08 AM, TNtwins85 said:

I would love to know what the development budget for each team is. Also it would probably go a long way for the public to know what their specific team is focused towards. With how free agency is it catches headlines because it’s public. I think that is part of the reason why everyone focus’s so hard on free agents. If people had data that shows how a team is focused as far as a development budget it would be just another way for fans to focus their energy. Also, that’s a way that the players union drums up excitement by focusing everything on free agency. Take the Twins for example what excites the fan base? Carlos Correa, Donaldson. Why? Because it’s what makes headlines. It’s what the Yankees and dodgers do. So when they do what they do it makes them excited. When they trade away those guys they think the world is ending. But if you attached a tangible number of development value to a prospect couldn’t that be viewed as a free agent number and drum excitement as well? Especially when you can assign stats and money to create a “worth” as a salary number does? Also knowing that that number delivers more fruit as opposed to a 29 or 30 year old that will inevitably get worse. I think that could help a fan base get on board with prospects more.

This a good post and this is a marketing issue. 

On Twinsdaily... We know who Walker Jenkins is? 

The average Joe who buys tickets? Not so much.   

If they are calling up Gabriel Gonzalez... sell it. I mean sell it. Make it seem like it's important. 

If they do that... the winds on the roads they travel will become less stiff. People will know who Jenkins is and why he matters. 

[TNtwins85]

On 11/26/2025 at 6:12 AM, Riverbrian said:

This a good post and this is a marketing issue. 

On Twinsdaily... We know who Walker Jenkins is? 

The average Joe who buys tickets? Not so much.   

If they are calling up Gabriel Gonzalez... sell it. I mean sell it. Make it seem like it's important. 

If they do that... the winds on the roads they travel will become less stiff. People will know who Jenkins is and why he matters. 

Exactly. This is purely a marketing and communication issue which we know is not a strong suit of the Twins. Whoever marketed the “get to know em” campaign of the early 2000’s was a genius. If the front office could simply be honest and drum up “real” excitement over the direction of the team and not just some fake excitement and direction this could all be much more palatable from a fans perspective. Instead of trying to be like every other team simply lean into a direction and market the hell out of it! Not only would a large section of fans be more accepting but the big thing is they wouldn’t feel lied to all the time. 

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

Exactly. This is purely a marketing and communication issue which we know is not a strong suit of the Twins. Whoever marketed the “get to know em” campaign of the early 2000’s was a genius. If the front office could simply be honest and drum up “real” excitement over the direction of the team and not just some fake excitement and direction this could all be much more palatable from a fans perspective. Instead of trying to be like every other team simply lean into a direction and market the hell out of it! Not only would a large section of fans be more accepting but the big thing is they wouldn’t feel lied to all the time. 

Product marketing, which the Veeck family knew how to do and the Twins seem to have in short supply, consists of a whole lot more than just the messaging, and I'll leave it at that.

[RpR]

On 11/26/2025 at 6:12 AM, Riverbrian said:

This a good post and this is a marketing issue. 

On Twinsdaily... We know who Walker Jenkins is? 

The average Joe who buys tickets? Not so much.   

If they are calling up Gabriel Gonzalez... sell it. I mean sell it. Make it seem like it's important. 

If they do that... the winds on the roads they travel will become less stiff. People will know who Jenkins is and why he matters. 

You mean well known names like : Boof Bonzer, Willie Norwood, Bombo Rivera, Craig Kusick etc., etc., etc..

The Twins have enough hyped failures; they need a team that stays together and wins more than they lose.

 

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

Exactly. This is purely a marketing and communication issue which we know is not a strong suit of the Twins. Whoever marketed the “get to know em” campaign of the early 2000’s was a genius. If the front office could simply be honest and drum up “real” excitement over the direction of the team and not just some fake excitement and direction this could all be much more palatable from a fans perspective. Instead of trying to be like every other team simply lean into a direction and market the hell out of it! Not only would a large section of fans be more accepting but the big thing is they wouldn’t feel lied to all the time. 

And by not marketing the narrative. They don’t control the narrative. The fans do. 
 

Youth means losses. Youth means Cheap Owners. 

[TNtwins85]

54 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

And by not marketing the narrative. They don’t control the narrative. The fans do. 
 

Youth means losses. Youth means Cheap Owners. 

Doesn’t need to be a narrative or the front office showing their hand. Simply informing fans of what the direction is and how that will be accomplished and being honest goes a long way to giving fans something to look forward to. 

[RpR]

They are not developing, for goodness sakes; they are training for more and more difficult opponents , in a sport they are well versed on, as the go through the Minor Leagues.

A five year old could be called developing as he is experienceing some thing absolutely new to him.🍺