How the Twins Can Win by Outdeveloping, Not Outspending

Finally a realistic article on how the Twins can compete.  Not one grading them on their pay scale. Like I have said time and time again, "It is not how much money you spend, it is how you spend your money".  

PREPOSTEROUS.  Read the room.  Haven't you heard.  The path forward MUST be to spend like drunken sailors.

Good article.  Well thought out.  Yes the Twins have to budget their payroll even better, much better than they have.  Falvey has done a very poor job of that in the past by spending too much on select free agents and not working on player development.  IMO Twins have done a poot job of developing talent.  Too many prospects regressing or flaming ouy.

This sounds like the same game they’ve been preaching for years. The reason they are signing bargain bin veterans is: the prospects coming up aren’t talented enough to play in MLB, or they stop progressing once they reach MLB. Not sure if just throwing the young guys out there to lose 100 games is the solution, but hey, we haven’t tried that in a while!

Based on this article, the Twins not only have failed at bringing in the right free agents but they have also failed at developing their own players. That's Captain Obvious. Both fall back onto Falvey's lap. If we don't have the right coaches then why are other clubs snatching up the ones that the Twins let go and then experience success, aka Popkins? Maybe it isn't the coaches or their ability, but the "plan", Falvey's Plan. I don't think plunging more resources into development and instruction is the answer. I think the "Plan" needs to change, or HOW the players are developed. Most everyone here knows Falvey fell head first into the HomeRun Plan and tried to make every hitter into a HR hitter even if they weren't good at it. Were the Coaches to blame or Falvey? To me that's an easy answer. Was the development and instruction bad? Yes. Who was to blame? Falvey and his Plan. Do the Twins need to spend smarter? Yes. Who do you blame for that? Falvey. Could the players being drafted just not be good enough and there was poor decision making on WHO to draft? Then again, Falveys to blame. They change the Manager, change the coaches, change the players and the one constant that doesn't change is Falvey. If they don't right the ship soon, you absolutely cannot look at anyone else to blame.

26 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Based on this article, the Twins not only have failed at bringing in the right free agents but they have also failed at developing their own players. That's Captain Obvious. Both fall back onto Falvey's lap. If we don't have the right coaches then why are other clubs snatching up the ones that the Twins let go and then experience success, aka Popkins? Maybe it isn't the coaches or their ability, but the "plan", Falvey's Plan. I don't think plunging more resources into development and instruction is the answer. I think the "Plan" needs to change, or HOW the players are developed. Most everyone here knows Falvey fell head first into the HomeRun Plan and tried to make every hitter into a HR hitter even if they weren't good at it. Were the Coaches to blame or Falvey? To me that's an easy answer. Was the development and instruction bad? Yes. Who was to blame? Falvey and his Plan. Do the Twins need to spend smarter? Yes. Who do you blame for that? Falvey. Could the players being drafted just not be good enough and there was poor decision making on WHO to draft? Then again, Falveys to blame. They change the Manager, change the coaches, change the players and the one constant that doesn't change is Falvey. If they don't right the ship soon, you absolutely cannot look at anyone else to blame.

Completely agree with this, the twins have done a terrible job at roster construction. They have a 40 man loaded with guys that didn't debut until their mid 20's or later; that isn't how to build a roster it is the way to supplement it. It is no surprise that the Twins best players/core are Buxton, Lopez, and Jeffers, Guys like by SWR, Keaschall, Lewis and Lee are following up. Guys brought up later either need to be traded quickly or moved on from, generally speaking guys like Gordon, Julien, Miranda, Martin, Keirsey, McCusker, Roden and the rest don't have a long shelf life, you roll them though and move them out for a proven player or prospect, you don't wait around for them, because most won't ever turn out as you hoped, of course a small percentage will but they need to be supplement players not full time starters, otherwise you end up with a team of average or below replacement level players.  Most teams have a guy or two playing an important role (starting or bench)  that came up at 25 or later, but not a roster full of them. 

It is important for a mid market team to have those really good players that come up early and succeed and the mid 20 something players that help for a few years (because they never really cost you anything, but you have to enough you can move on from them quickly when they don't pan out) 

They're not going to be able to develop their way to success while performing so poorly at acquiring international free agent pitching.

Development is great, but then you also have to be the best at identifying talent, while having fewer resources available to identify talent. You can have a fundamentally sound team that plays better than their talent, but many of the most talented teams are also pretty good at preparation and fundamentals.

They have to spend money, and they have to spend it wisely. The best $$ spent is on extending contracts for your own players, assuming you can find talented players to invest in.

Thank you.  Finally a post that supports the reality (which I’ve been harping about on the TD for years - much to all my fellow TDers annoyance I’m sure).

Finding and institutionalising systems/processes for being better at player development (all the way from drafting/initial signing through transitioning to a legitimate above average every day major leaguer) is the only way a small/mid-market team can hope to achieve any sort of sustainable competitive advantage in modern MLB, most certainly in a non- salary cap environment. 

The Twins path to sustained success is blocked by the grifting silver spoon Pohlad ownership.  Nothing will change until they sell and completely remove themselves from team activities.

There is such a fine line between the average player and a slightly better player. Most teams don't have many superior talents despite the goal of accumulating stars. The Twins have exactly one, Byron Buxton, and he has missed a ton of games in his career. Gathering talent is challenging. It seems like the Twins may be moving away from sluggers in the draft, choosing athletic types recently: Houston, Culpepper, and Jenkins. Development is crucial but apparently alignment up and down throughout the organization is tougher than it should be. Times change and unless one is actively within a system it is difficult to assess the issues. I can speak to my employment at a given time with a specific analysis, but that work place situation may not resemble my experience a decade later. 

Baseball is a particularly brutal business where evaluations and investments in players is fluid. One constant could be the expectations, routines, and positive atmosphere. 

One thing doesn't change though and that is that hard calls need to be made with players, whether it is via promotions, demotions, or release. I have often wondered how much a front office is caught making or not making a decision based on their affinity for a player. Talent wins and correctly identifying talent is a tough job.

Falvey was hired in 2016. What was his plan? How much has he done to implement his plan? How has he shown learning in self-reflection on his plans? We are discussing putting in place a development policy in 2025. It is a good idea. Does that seem odd to discuss this as the leader begins Year Ten? 

Informative article.

My takeaway is still that there is plenty of money to spend. Based on the numbers provided - $324M in revenue & $154M in payroll for 2025. It's also noted on average it's $20M for the coaching staff, so that's $174M leaving $150M to cover other expenses for the business. While I'm not qualified to guess what the other expenses in the business amount to, I have to imagine 2025 was a profitable season for the Twins.

If that's the case why does it feel like we may be looking at a sub $100M payroll for 2026? If they could have $154M or even $140M for payroll they should be able to build a competitive & entertaining team. 

I actually think the identification of hitting has been such a problem that it clouds development.  The fact that the Twins haven't taken a flawed hitting prospect and worked a little magic is deeply concerning, yes, but the main problem is they're missing the guys who have a real chance.

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

TC has to draft/develop because they can't outspend.

Exactly...isn’t this a accurate headline?

“How do the Twins plan to win without spending?

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

Their failures in the international free agent market really don't get talked about enough.  Emma Rodriguez is currently the only international free agent acquisition on the 40-man (not counting other teams' IFAs that they've acquired via trade).  And per Fangraphs roster resource, there's no one else in that bucket even that close to knocking on the door.  Their highest-ranked prospect other than Emma from their own IFA bucket is Jose Olivares at 16, and he just went unprotected in Rule 5.  Next best is teenaged A-ball outfielder Eduardo Beltre at 20.  Both are ranked lower by Pipeline.

The Sano/Kepler/Polanco IFA class was a long time ago.  Since then, who would even be considered their second-best acquisition from this path after Emma?  For a team on their budget, they absolutely need to be better in this area.

ETA: I forgot about Arraez.  So there's one from the last 16 years.  Still needs to be much better than that

1/3 of MLB players come into the league as international free agents. Brusdar Graterol is their last IFA pitching prospect and that was 2019. Luis Gil went to the Yankees but he may be more of a Yankee development success than a Twins talent identification success. The Twins gave him up for Jake Cave so they obviously didn't think he would amount to much. Francisco Liriano was way back in 2005.

51 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

However... The league really has to do something about the IFA's. These kids are being signed at 16

And there's usually a kickback to someone to get a deal. The bigger market teams do a better job getting the best players and it's mostly about money. The Twins are picking over the leftovers after the more corrupt teams pay the buscones.

The dysfunction of the baseball culture in Latin America - Yahoo Sports

The Twins have 11 coaches on their major league staff for 2026. 3 pitching coaches and 3 hitting coaches. For 26 players. I believe they have had pretty much the same number, maybe 1 less, the last few years.  I don't know the exact number of coaches for each team in the system, but I think there has been at least 2 hitting coaches and 2 pitching coaches at every level. That doesn't count coordinators and analytic staff for the entire system.

It is hard to pinpoint where the problems are in developing talent. They have not done a particularly impressive job with international kids, high school kids, or really college kids either.  I would guess it is a combination of identifying talent and not developing the talent very well.  Since they seem to change out a whole raft of coaches each year, maybe they are trying to fix the problems. Or maybe they just don't really stay with anything or anybody long enough to make any plan work.

This is the case with not just the Twins, but almost every midwest small market team in MLB. The Twins are never going to have a top 5 payroll. I think for the most part, the Twins have done a good job of developing players at a lower level, but there has been a lot of struggle with translating that to the big leagues. Hopefully the new big league hitting coach can help with that.

On 11/19/2025 at 8:02 AM, bean5302 said:

Falvey has failed miserably at developing.

Positional WAR 2025
Terry Ryan 32%
Derek Falvey 48%
Non-Twins Draft 20%

Pitching WAR 2025
Terry Ryan 9%
Derek Falvey 34%
Non-Twins Draft 57%

As I recall, Terry Ryan and Bill Smith's guys were still providing the majority of "home grown" talent until the last year or two. Embarrassing.

This often-floated idea that the teams producing the most young talent (Milwaukee, Tampa, Cleveland) are doing so by drafting is misguided.  These teams acquire roughly 40% of their young talent from other teams.  If we look at the players on the 2025 (97 win) Brewers that produced more than 1.5 WAR, 3 of their top 13 players were drafted, and 2 were international signings.  59% of their WAR was from players acquired from other teams, all but one of them (Yehlich) were unproven when acquired.  Of course, they developed those players as well but they didn't do a superior job of drafting.

21 hours ago, MGX said:

Informative article.

My takeaway is still that there is plenty of money to spend. Based on the numbers provided - $324M in revenue & $154M in payroll for 2025. It's also noted on average it's $20M for the coaching staff, so that's $174M leaving $150M to cover other expenses for the business. While I'm not qualified to guess what the other expenses in the business amount to, I have to imagine 2025 was a profitable season for the Twins.

If that's the case why does it feel like we may be looking at a sub $100M payroll for 2026? If they could have $154M or even $140M for payroll they should be able to build a competitive & entertaining team. 

Payroll does not equal the amount paid to players.  They have benefits of around $17M according to Spotrac, and another roughly $22-23M in draft / international draft bonuses.