Twins Fans: Don't Hold Derek Shelton's Tenure with the Pirates Against Him

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Reception to Minnesota's announcement of Derek Shelton as new manager has been mixed, at best. While partially owing to the general state of fan morale, it's been tough to find much enthusiasm surrounding the next chapter in Twins managerial lore.

He's a retread, some say. He's being brought in to oversee a low-stakes rebuild, others say. And of course, there is the matter of his extremely underwhelming run with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who never finished even close to .500 or above fourth place during his six seasons at the helm. In fact, his winning percentage was among the worst in MLB history.

 

There's validity to all of these critiques, but I would caution against putting too much stock into the last one. If you're expecting a manager to magically turn a bad team into a good one, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. The question isn't whether Shelton's teams in Pittsburgh were bad, it's whether they underperformed. I'm not sure you can really say they did.

Yes, his 306-440 record as manager of the Pirates was ugly. But that needs to be paired with the context of highly talent-deficient teams that never had any realistic hope to begin with. According to SportsOddsHistory, these are the Vegas over-unders for the Pirates heading into each season under Shelton's tenure, along with the eventual win totals for those teams:

• 2025: 76.5 (71) - Shelton fired on May 8
• 2024: 75.5 (76)
• 2023: 67.5 (76)
• 2022: 64.5 (62)
• 2021: 58.5 (61)
• 2020: 25.5 (19) - 60-game season

If we're looking at overall record as a manager, Shelton was minus-134 in his six years with Pittsburgh. If we're looking at his record relative to expectations (at least from Vegas), he's just a couple games in the red, and his biggest deviation came in 2023 when the Pirates exceeded their projection by eight games. 

Now, to be clear, I'm not necessarily trying to let him off the hook. Ideally it'd be nice to see a manager bring a little more out of his squad and spearhead a trend of sustained improvement (which was kind of happening up through 2024). But you can only work with what you've got. I doubt there was a manager in the world that was going to steer this year's Pirates team, which had absolutely no hitting ability across the roster, anywhere other than last place.

The problem with Rocco Baldelli wasn't that he didn't radically elevate Twins players beyond their level of talent and ability. It's that in 2024 and 2025 his teams fell well short of their potential. Entering both years, Minnesota was at least a co-favorite in the AL Central, per Vegas, and in both years they finished in fourth place. 

The job of Shelton, or any manager, is not to spin straw into gold. It is to take the makings of a quality team and help the players collectively see it through. That's where Rocco failed and I'm not sure we can fairly say it's an opportunity Shelton has ever had, managing Pirates teams that were at a constant disadvantage in resources and talent.

 

Whether he will get a viable opportunity in the next few years with the Twins, who very well may be leaning into an all-out rebuild, is another story. But that story pertains a lot more to ownership and the front office than it does to Shelton, whose true prowess as a manager will remain unknown until he actually gets to manage a team that's equipped to win.

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[jmlease1]

I mean, it's fair to say that Pittsburgh has been a far bigger mess than the Twins, with fewer assets, worse player development, etc. But it's also reasonable to wonder if Shelton is the right guy to help players reach their potential in MLB, and there's not a lot of evidence from the Pittsburgh time. Is it just because Pittsburgh sucked out loud and gave him nothing to work with until Skenes?

I suppose some of this depends on how much responsibility Baldelli and the most recent Twins MLB staff should take for players like Miranda & Julien flaming out, Larnach not developing further, Lee struggling, Festa & Matthews being inconsistent, etc. If you think Rocco & Co are responsible for that falling apart, then you probably think Shelton should have done more for the Pirates?

We'll see. He seems ok to me, but the real issue is going to be the roster. I suspect he will have little to no honeymoon from some because a) he was hired by Falvey, b) he's probably not going to start bunting a lot, c) he's still going to use analytics to inform on-field decision-making, and d) will pull starting pitching before the 7th.

[rdehring]

Thanks, Nick.  

None of know what the future holds for the Twins.  I remain hopeful that the front office will make a couple smart moves this winter, albeit likely without spending a lot of money.  Add improvement from the current batch of young players together with the arrival of a couple top prospects and we just might have an enjoyable summer. 

Hopefully, Mr. Shelton will be a manager who will stress good defense together with being aggressive along with a little fight from the guys.  Should that happen, I will enjoy 2026 and beyond.

[Cory Engelhardt]

It’s the Pohlads, I have to imagine. If the Pohlads had sold, and there were new owners here and they went with Shelton (or anyone else) the comments wouldn’t be as numerous as they are angry. On his own, Shelton could be great here, but “right sizing” the organization after the 2023 playoffs still has everyone either mad or angry. 

[Riverbrian]

From my viewpoint... At the moment... Things seem very similar between Minnesota and Pittsburgh. 

Both teams have the makings of a young talented rotation. Both teams have a lot of work to do in the bullpen.

Both teams have been struggling to develop hitting talent.

Both teams committed a significant number of AB's to aging veterans (Cutch, Pham and IKF) with expiring contracts instead of youth.  

I think Shelton is looking at the Twins players that he has to work with and feeling like he hasn't left Pittsburgh. 

 

 

 

[mikelink45]

The issue isn't Shelton but rather the lackluster team from ownership on down. As a fan we wanted something new. The Nationals just took a risk in their hiring just as the Giants did. They may fail but there is a chance to dream on. Our retread may be comfortable for Falvey but feels to much like Ground Hog Day.  

[CRF]

3 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

The issue isn't Shelton but rather the lackluster team from ownership on down. As a fan we wanted something new. The Nationals just took a risk in their hiring just as the Giants did. They may fail but there is a chance to dream on. Our retread may be comfortable for Falvey but feels to much like Ground Hog Day.  

You nailed it. This wasn't a swing and a miss...this wasn't even a swing at all. The problem is much higher up than the manager. 

[D.C Twins]

I don't... I hold his close relationship with Falvey and the likelihood of him just being a new extension of Falvey against him!

It is what it is..... 

He'll muddle through and collect some checks until Falvey and him are fired circa  2028.... 

 

 

[TJSweens]

There is absolutely nothing in Shelton's yearly record To indicate that he is a manager who gets the most out of what he has. Pittsburgh has also seems to have a farm system like the Twins. A lot of promising young players who don't seem to pan out.

[HrbieFan]

12 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

The issue isn't Shelton but rather the lackluster team from ownership on down. As a fan we wanted something new. The Nationals just took a risk in their hiring just as the Giants did. They may fail but there is a chance to dream on. Our retread may be comfortable for Falvey but feels to much like Ground Hog Day.  

Spot on! Why does it have to be someone from the Twins family? How about grabbing a coach from a successful team? Winning is a culture and most Twinks haven't won since college or A ball. Sure as hell hope Derek has a great pitching and hitting coaches in mind

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article Nick. Makes a lot of sense.

[mike8791]

In reading the many comments on The Athletic from Pittsburgh fans, the one theme mentioned frequently was that Shelton was a low-key, player-friendly manager who failed to inspire his players.  Sounds like a  rerun of Molly/Rocco.  The last thing this struggling team is a lack of leadership!  

I agree with the opinion that the Pirates were never the most talented team but comparing their 2025 team before and after Shelton's dismissal indicates his replacement achieved considerably more success than Shelton before his firing.  That says a lot about Derek's performance.  Couldn't the FO have found a more inspirational, emotional guy who could light a fire under this team of under performers?  That is the real concern here.

[Jkeady12]

I do. We had Servais. Huge swing and miss, wait watched a fastball down the middle and struck out again. Pohlads and management sucks, it's ok to admit it.

[Doctor Wu]

Seems like the Pirates job was a tough one for any manager, especially for a first-timer like Shelton. I honestly don't know if he is the right/best person for the Twins job, but I'm patient enough to give him a chance. But he's going to need more than a few more capable players for this team. But will the front office shell out the money for some quality free agents?

[Nashvilletwin]

Thanks Nick for pointing out what a horrible decision it actually was to hire Shelton.  You make the case most convincingly even if that were not your intention.

This man has absolutely no record of meaningful success as a big league manager in any area of critical importance to the Twins organization (and familiarity with Falvey is 100% not one of those areas - in fact it’s a detriment).

His job is not to “spin straw into gold”.  His job is take some subset of projectable, successful minor leaguers and turn them into above average major leaguers.  Rocco couldn’t do it with one out of the many position players who were handed off to him and his staff. Has Shelton?

Nick, if you want to make the case for Shelton, why don’t you do a deep dive on what he accomplished developing his position players instead of banking on him barely beating incredibly low Vegas win projections. This is the type of analysis/information many TDers would find helpful if your goal is to try to get us to rally around this hire.

[PatPfund]

Emotions are complex. Right there with @mikelink45 on the Groundshog Day feeling (or Charlie Brown and the football), but agree with @Nick Nelson that the Pirates experience would have been tough for anyone. Bigger key is the budget; if it is Pirate level, I'm assuming Ryan and Lopez are gone along with any real hope; if it is $100-110 million, they should be able to keep their rotation anchors, and field a team that could compete for the division, or at least be fun to watch.

[Dawgzilla]

Derek seems like a nice guy, heck, there are a lot of "nice guys" on the Twins, but will they win you games.  Falvey and Twins ownership playing this "small/mid market" spending makes me say "no thanks" to going to any games, especially with all the costs of going involved!  Yes, atmosphere is great, but Minnesota has a lot of other things you can do in summer, which cost much less and/or are FREE!  No thanks!!!!!

[sstolen]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Thanks, Nick.  

None of know what the future holds for the Twins.  I remain hopeful that the front office will make a couple smart moves this winter, albeit likely without spending a lot of money.  Add improvement from the current batch of young players together with the arrival of a couple top prospects and we just might have an enjoyable summer. 

Hopefully, Mr. Shelton will be a manager who will stress good defense together with being aggressive along with a little fight from the guys.  Should that happen, I will enjoy 2026 and beyond.

I like this post.  Not overly anything but realistic. So so easy for knucklehead talk radio types to be critical, cynical and unimformed. (Because we really dont know)

[In My La Z boy]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Thanks, Nick.  

None of know what the future holds for the Twins.  I remain hopeful that the front office will make a couple smart moves this winter, albeit likely without spending a lot of money.  Add improvement from the current batch of young players together with the arrival of a couple top prospects and we just might have an enjoyable summer. 

Hopefully, Mr. Shelton will be a manager who will stress good defense together with being aggressive along with a little fight from the guys.  Should that happen, I will enjoy 2026 and beyond.

Thanks! I enjoyed this comment. I am an optimist. It helps my days go better. 

[Woof Bronzer]

29 other MLB teams definitely held his tenure against him.  

If there is one thing I wish the Twins would do is adopt the motto "Results Matter".  Plaster it on every clubhouse wall, tattoo it on every player.  Repeat it every day, in every meeting, 

Shelton, just like Baldelli, was not the biggest issue on the Pirates by far.  But the fact remains: Shelton's win percentage is one of the worst in MLB history.  He's never had success anywhere, in fact.  Does this mean he's a bad manager?  I don't know.  I am very skeptical he's a great one though. (Quick: name a great MLB manager with a career winning percentage of .400,)  

It's more likely that the Twins hired Shelton BECAUSE of his tenure with the Pirates.  He's demonstrated to be totally ok working for a greedy, incompetent owner, won't complain about poor rosters, won't rock the boat, will just quietly sit back and "manage" a "team" openly tanking in order to line a billionaire's pockets.  He's a dream candidate for the Pohlads.  And his lack of success in Pittsburgh leaves him with little equity with which to push back on Falvey's misguided strategies, and from his time here, Shelton knows the deal - he knows that Falvey micromanages and must be ok with, for example, Falvey predetermining how long a starter will go that night, or hiring Shelton's coaching staff for him.   So a pretty dreamy candidate for Falvey too.  

Shelton isn't going to have a major impact on the 2026 Twins either way.  I've been less interested in the actual manager, and more interested in what the hire says about where Falvey is at.  Well, the hire signals that Falvey doesn't think there's anything wrong with his operation, and that a proven track record of success did not seem to factor into the search.  Shelton may well be more successful here - many leaders are unsuccessful initially but learn lessons and knock it out of the park on their next job. But let's stop pretending that Shelton's track record is anything but bad.  Facts matter.  

[old nurse]

57 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

In reading the many comments on The Athletic from Pittsburgh fans, the one theme mentioned frequently was that Shelton was a low-key, player-friendly manager who failed to inspire his players.  Sounds like a  rerun of Molly/Rocco.  The last thing this struggling team is a lack of leadership!  

I agree with the opinion that the Pirates were never the most talented team but comparing their 2025 team before and after Shelton's dismissal indicates his replacement achieved considerably more success than Shelton before his firing.  That says a lot about Derek's performance.  Couldn't the FO have found a more inspirational, emotional guy who could light a fire under this team of under performers?  That is the real concern here.

Had a boss one time who was a dynamic, inspirational guy. In orientation he said  “If you need me to inspire you to do your job I don’t want you on my team”. 

[tony&rodney]

When people have money or are in certain "important" executive jobs people tend to think those individuals are inherently successful and deserving of their positions. We see this everywhere. Now many do earn their way and are intrinsically motivated to excel on a daily basis. There is a "glass floor" in our world however that keeps those who are not managing to maintain a reasonable level of expertise in a position and yet they continue to hold those top decision-making slots. 

We see this in sports as well. The player who never rests to improve in every aspect  of their craft. The coaches and those on up the line are all an integral part of the whole with the owners and front office at the top. It is tough to succeed down the line if the expertise and vision at the top is flawed and/or incompetent. 

Joe Madden had many enduring qualities that brought him to the top of his profession when he was a manager. He also had his flaws that irritated enough people to end his career. In the end Madden sealed his fate when he stated that he would never manage a team where he had to take orders from a corporate head whose knowledge didn't meet the lowest standard to be in a dugout. That is the challenge faced by managers in the 21st century. Derek Shelton is faced with many difficult tasks but none will be as daunting as his acceptance of the hand above feeding him starvation thoughts, ideas, and actions. Without change above, which can occur from the same individuals currently in those positions because everyone can change, nobody has a chance for success and that includes Derek Shelton. 

I can only wish Shelton the best of luck. 

[old nurse]

Just now, Woof Bronzer said:

29 other MLB teams definitely held his tenure against him.  

If there is one thing I wish the Twins would do is adopt the motto "Results Matter".  Plaster it on every clubhouse wall, tattoo it on every player.  Repeat it every day, in every meeting, 

Shelton, just like Baldelli, was not the biggest issue on the Pirates by far.  But the fact remains: Shelton's win percentage is one of the worst in MLB history.  He's never had success anywhere, in fact.  Does this mean he's a bad manager?  I don't know.  I am very skeptical he's a great one though. (Quick: name a great MLB manager with a career winning percentage of .400,)  

It's more likely that the Twins hired Shelton BECAUSE of his tenure with the Pirates.  He's demonstrated to be totally ok working for a greedy, incompetent owner, won't complain about poor rosters, won't rock the boat, will just quietly sit back and "manage" a "team" openly tanking in order to line a billionaire's pockets.  He's a dream candidate for the Pohlads.  And his lack of success in Pittsburgh leaves him with little equity with which to push back on Falvey's misguided strategies, and from his time here, Shelton knows the deal - he knows that Falvey micromanages and must be ok with, for example, Falvey predetermining how long a starter will go that night, or hiring Shelton's coaching staff for him.   So a pretty dreamy candidate for Falvey too.  

Shelton isn't going to have a major impact on the 2026 Twins either way.  I've been less interested in the actual manager, and more interested in what the hire says about where Falvey is at.  Well, the hire signals that Falvey doesn't think there's anything wrong with his operation, and that a proven track record of success did not seem to factor into the search.  Shelton may well be more successful here - many leaders are unsuccessful initially but learn lessons and knock it out of the park on their next job. But let's stop pretending that Shelton's track record is anything but bad.  Facts matter.  

There were mot 29 other openings. Hyperbole to make a point sucks 

[Woof Bronzer]

4 minutes ago, old nurse said:

There were mot 29 other openings. Hyperbole to make a point sucks 

Fair point.  I'll revise that to "no other team with a managerial opening gave him a second of consideration".   Hopefully that's better for you.

Do you think this changes the fact that Shelton has a .410 winning percentage as a manger, which is one of the worst in MLB history?  

[jmlease1]

56 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

In reading the many comments on The Athletic from Pittsburgh fans, the one theme mentioned frequently was that Shelton was a low-key, player-friendly manager who failed to inspire his players.  Sounds like a  rerun of Molly/Rocco.  The last thing this struggling team is a lack of leadership!  

I agree with the opinion that the Pirates were never the most talented team but comparing their 2025 team before and after Shelton's dismissal indicates his replacement achieved considerably more success than Shelton before his firing.  That says a lot about Derek's performance.  Couldn't the FO have found a more inspirational, emotional guy who could light a fire under this team of under performers?  That is the real concern here.

I'd say the Pirates had slightly more success after Shelton was fired, it's not like Don Kelly turned them around and taught them how to hit all of a sudden. They still had plenty of 8-game losing streaks and still weren't even a .500 team under Kelly. Did Shelton "deserve" to keep his job? Deserve's got nothin' to do with it. (tm Clint Eastwood) Did Kelly's tenure so far significant change anything for the Pirates? Doesn't really look like it. If they add some hitting and don't trade Skenes, they'll be better in 2026. If they deal Skenes and/or don't improve the offense, they'll be 5th in the NL Central again. (likely regardless, unless you think StL is on a bigger downswing)

I've never been all that impressed with the performative nonsense of managers screaming and yelling or the idea that you need the manager to be the dugout hype man in order to inspire players to do better. It probably makes some fans feel better when things are going badly and you're desperate for someone to do something, anything...but when was the last time you felt more inspired at work when your boss chewed your ass out?

I'll be curious to see what Shelton does to try and improve the defense and baserunning with the roster, how he manages a bullpen, and whether or not he'll stick to the Rocco-era trick of pulling a guy in the middle innings to try and get the big inning using the platoon advantage then, and risk it going the other way late. (I think that was seriously overused and worked against the team more than it ever helped, by YMMV) I'll be very interested if anyone can get any real intel on how Shelton's staff will be put together and whether he'll be forced to keep anyone he doesn't want, or denied bringing in someone he doesn't. (I'm sure some people will be certain that he's going to be "forced" to keep anyone that carries over form Rocco's staff, but it's not necessarily true and it could very much be completely false. But I think it's going to be very difficult to find out for sure; Twins don't leak on this stuff often)

[DJL44]

Do we know that Shelton was the front office's first choice? Did other candidates turn them down after the interview? I've certainly backed out from joining organizations after I've had a chance to meet the people in charge face to face.

[David Maro]

If he is able to make changes in the coaching staff maybe things will change. If not nothing will change and he is a puppet to the FO. I guess we'll see in a short period of time. Because Falvey will show his hand in that regard.

[old nurse]

20 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Fair point.  I'll revise that to "no other team with a managerial opening gave him a second of consideration".   Hopefully that's better for you.

Do you think this changes the fact that Shelton has a .410 winning percentage as a manger, which is one of the worst in MLB history?  

Tom Kelly had a 6 year stretch with a ..424 winning percentage. Does that make him a bad manager, or didn’t have talent to work with? 

Ron Gardenhire had a stretch of averaging losing 96 games a year. Does that make him a poor manager? 

[bean5302]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Do we know that Shelton was the front office's first choice? Did other candidates turn them down after the interview? I've certainly backed out from joining organizations after I've had a chance to meet the people in charge face to face.

Torii Hunter didn't even want to begin the formal interview process with the Twins after initial discussion with Falvey.

[bean5302]

12 minutes ago, David Maro said:

If he is able to make changes in the coaching staff maybe things will change. If not nothing will change and he is a puppet to the FO. I guess we'll see in a short period of time. Because Falvey will show his hand in that regard.

He is going to be a puppet. There is no question about that. Falvey made the hire because he knows Shelton will make a good puppet. Even looking back at managerial tendencies, Shelton is like a clone of Baldelli.