In Choosing Derek Shelton, Twins Signal a Rebuild is Likely

[LewFordLives]

I see this as all about familiarity. Shelton is someone Falvey has worked with before and with whom he obviously has a certain comfort level. Whether they are doing a rebuild or spending $300 million and making a run for the title, I still think they end up with Shelton (for better or worse). There are lots of aspiring managers who would do almost anything to get the Twins job and tow  the company line, even those from outside the organization, but Falvey wants Shelton.

Anyway, I'll give Shelton a chance. Let's not forget, Tom Kelly was the ultimate in-house candidate and wasn't on many short lists to take over the job in '87.

[JADBP]

Well I think they missed a fantastic opportunity in not getting Rowson!  But who knows….maybe he turned down an offer?  He was the one guy for whom the interview was said to be “very impressive.”  Oh well. 
 

As for Shelton, I’d agree that he is simply Falvey 2.0.  His job was to take a low budget team with a great farm system and build a functioning team.  He failed.  So did Rocco. 
 

But SO DID OWNERSHIP!  Now sure the budget was a bit higher, but you can say the same for SEA, CLE, MKE, and many other smallish market teams.  Is this all the Head Coach’s fault?  Nope.  
 

You need a full MLB franchise system, top to bottom, to win.  This includes many coaches, Scouts, analysts, instructors, facilities, planners, and conditioning/medical staff.  Oh dammit…wait…Twins have been firing many of them too!

And the Twins need a winning strategy.  I am sure the main  reason they picked Shelton is because he bought in to the Falvey strategy.  I’m guessing Rowson had some other plans (and impressive ones too!).  So, compare to the above-mentioned teams—just how well has the Falvey/Baldelli/Shelton strategy worked?  
 

Good luck Twins!  Good luck Twins fans!  I’ve cancelled my mlb.tv subscription   
 

I have to say I am really enjoying the WS.  I’m rooting for TO but both teams are playing excellent baseball.  I just wish the Twins would learn some things from TO!  But I can’t call them cheap—their payroll is $255 million!  Whew   
 

But I look at the list of payrolls and many low-payroll teams have far better records   Sigh!  

 

[weitz41]

IDK maybe it says rebuild. But why not bring in a completely new to managing guy then? Wouldn't that buy some more time? Wouldn't they have traded for more guys further away then? Lots of questions and no answers. We'll find out in soon enough.

[DocBauer]

Two years working for the Twins doesn't make him a "lifer" nepotism type hire. But it does mean Falvey knows the man, feels comfortable with the man, and feels he can still run his "vision" of the Twins through his manager. 

Shelton is well respected and experienced working for multiple organizations. Again, he's not a Twins "lifer". But he's familiar enough with the Twins, and to Falvey, to not be a boat rocker.

Maybe that's OK. Maybe Falvey has a new course in mind and wants someone who will embrace the changes he wants to make. Maybe not.

It would be silly to take a respected baseball guy like Shelton and place blame on him for Pittsburgh's lack of success. But when is the last time ANYONE had success leading that team? He may be a good hire. He may be a poor hire. I don't know. But he felt "safe" for Falvey and the direction he wants to take the team.

Ultimately, it comes down to payroll and roster construction. Shelton won't have much do in regard to either of those areas. Where he MIGHT have some say/control is over his coaching staff, and how they handle not only the players on hand, but also the prospects coming up.

Despite a fairly extensive resume as a hitting coach, it's doubtful Shelton will be involved with instruction. That's not his job. He's responsible for running the team. But perhaps he'll have control of his hitting coach and instructors? (Something I also wondered about if Rowson was the choice). Perhaps he's got coaches in mind, and/or routines to work on some basic fundamentals that have been lacking in recent seasons?

But Shelton doesn't appear to be a hire that's expected to "push back" against the FO. So it still comes down to Falvey, the A#1 guy in charge and implementing his vision.

Again, maybe Falvey is shifting gears and sees a new direction going forward. Recent drafts have seen more attention paid to better athletes, more speed, potentially more defense, while still focusing on talented arms to be developed. 

The team is certainly in a re-tool mode. Whether or not it's a re-build will be determined by whatever moves take place this offseason. Right or wrong, Shelton is here to move along Falvey's vision.

Let's hope it's a NEW vision with some smart ideas and changes. 

[jorgenswest]

I wonder why Shelton would take this job. He must have asked about the Twins plans for Ryan and Lopez in the interview process. He must have asked how they will address the bullpen and first base and catcher. He must have asked about payroll.

Terry Francona started his managerial career with four losing seasons in Philadelphia. he was fired after the 2000 season. After three seasons in various roles (assistant GM, bench coach) he accepted 2004 Red Sox job who replaced their manager after losing the ALCS. He chose that job well. I don’t think he gets a third shot if he has a losing stretch with a second club.

Shelton chose this job. Why? He would have had a job on a bench or in a front office. If I was told the plan was to reduce payroll by trading Ryan and Lopez this winter I would have ended the interview. This could be strike 2 for him and there isn’t likely a strike 3.

If anything, accepting this job is a sign that the Twins are not going to tear this down further. He didn’t need to take the job. He could have been a valuable bench coach and been patient. A opportunity would have come his way. Why did he choose this job?

[bunsen82]

"Rather than go with a candidate who might challenge the status quo—one who might push back against flawed thinking, one who brings an outside voice, or one who demands excellence at all levels"

So who exactly was the coach you had in mind. You call it flawed thinking - so then what is proper thinking? Yes we struggled this year,  as a whole the records show the Twins have had pretty decent records during the Falvey era.  

Yes I don't see us getting a generational coach,  but I do think he can be a very solid coach, a winning coach,  and with the right roster could help get you deep in the playoffs.  

It is clear the majority of the people here won't be happy until the Pohlads and Falvey are gone.    

I can see a vision with some of the prospects coming up.  Several with better hit tools that the current players on the team.  I enjoyed the bomba era,  but that philosophy doesn't work if you strike out to much and don't have base runners on base to put up crooked numbers,  and then strike out with multiple players on base killing the inning.  

As a whole I would ask you to give the coach and the team a chance.  It will likely be a work in progress,  but I am hoping they can play hard competitive baseball.  At this point that is all I am asking for and that doesn't even mean a .500 winning percentage.  I want to see players improving and having fun.   Ultimately the only way we get better is everyone playing to their potential.    I hope Falvey can construct a decent team for Shelton to work with.  

We will know more in November/December whether this is a rebuild or a continued teardown.    

[jorgenswest]

39 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

But when is the last time ANYONE had success leading that team?

The manager before him had a winning season two seasons earlier. Clint Hurdle also turned the 57 win 2010 Pirate team he took over in 2011 into a team that went to the playoffs three straight seasons (2013-2015).

Unrelated but Hurdle is fascinating to me. His previous job was with the Rockies where he took that team to the playoffs in two of the three season before they fired him. He went to the 2007 World Series and lost in the playoffs in 2009. His work and success with the Rockies and Pirates organizations just can’t be understated. That work certainly should not be forgotten.

[BrokenCompass]

When the Twins rebuild, they don't "reload". 

They spend about a decade at the bottom of the standings. Get ready for some bleak years ahead folks. This is the most uninspiring hire at manager since Ray Miller. 

[Danchat]

45 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

It would be silly to take a respected baseball guy like Shelton and place blame on him for Pittsburgh's lack of success. But when is the last time ANYONE had success leading that team?

The Pirates' interim manager was considerably better in the win% metric, and even if you use Shelton's career win%, he's still short by quite a bit. It's quite apparent that the manager before and after him in Pittsburgh are/did a better than Shelton did with what little they had.

[ashbury]

9 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

We will know more in November/December whether this is a rebuild or a continued teardown.    

[Woof Bronzer]

18 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I wonder why Shelton would take this job. He must have asked about the Twins plans for Ryan and Lopez in the interview process. He must have asked how they will address the bullpen and first base and catcher. He must have asked about payroll.

Terry Francona started his managerial career with four losing seasons in Philadelphia. he was fired after the 2000 season. After three seasons in various roles (assistant GM, bench coach) he accepted 2004 Red Sox job who replaced their manager after losing the ALCS. He chose that job well. I don’t think he gets a third shot if he has a losing stretch with a second club.

Shelton chose this job. Why? He would have had a job on a bench or in a front office. If I was told the plan was to reduce payroll by trading Ryan and Lopez this winter I would have ended the interview. 

If anything, accepting this job is a sign that the Twins are not going to tear this down further. He didn’t need to take the job. He could have been a valuable bench coach and been patient. A opportunity would have come his way. Why did he choose this job?

There are 30 MLB manager jobs on earth.  The same organizational/ownership issues here applied to Shelton during his Pittsburgh tenure, and he was more than fine losing 60% of his games year after year.  This was the only manager job he was a remotely serious candidate for, and I'm guessing it pays better and has more authority than bench coach.  The guy is 55 - he doesn't have the luxury of patience, and is probably not excited to go back into the grind of managing in the minors or a demotion back to coach.  

I find it so strange to wonder why someone would want one of the most exclusive jobs in sports in which you make extremely good money coaching a childhood game with zero pressure to win.  Oh and it's a part time position so you can spend 3 months each winter drinking mai tais on a beach. Millions of people would take that job!  Sign me up!

[Eris]

A rebuild was coming anyway. Aside from Buxton, Keaschall and possibly Jeffers, which position players have played well enough to lock in a starting role for the next few years. 

[TNtwins85]

Unless you were in the room or you personally know from ownership and Falvey this doesn’t signal anything. Why? Because you just like the rest of us don’t know. This is pure speculation just like everything else. Will they spend their way to competitiveness? No. Will they unload everyone and have a bottom line payroll? Probably not. It will be some middle of the road “stay competitive” walk down the line to keep fan interest from cratering with a few moves to shake things up. Will they lose 100 games? Probably not. Will they win 90 games? Probably not. It will be another “milk toast” season where we see some young guys and some terrible and good play at times. Why? Cause they are the Twins.

[Joe A. Preusser]

8 hours ago, Nshore said:

I see poor Derek is a bourbon drinker.  It'll be time for him to go when the bottle becomes visible in the dugout during games.

Shelton won't have much control over roster construction.  So the players he gets from the minor league system better be developed to a razor sharp edge.  That puts focus on the performance of the director of minor league operations, which IMO to this point has been rather underwhelming.

Hiring a bourbon drinker is a flawed plan from the outset.  The first question in the interview should be:

What are your top 5 single-malt scotches, complete with region and strongest notes.

[bean5302]

Firing Baldelli and hiring Shelton is just some meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Shelton will be another Falvey puppet who will exercise the ever changing failures of Falvey's philosophies. 

I don't understand why this signals a rebuild. The Pirates have been run absolutely nothing like the Twins. A manager at the MLB level teaching fundamental baseball practices makes no sense. If players haven't been developed properly in the minors, it's on the GM/PoBO (Falvey). Trying to fix all the poor fundamentals at the MLB level is an impossible task. The best we can hope for is an inclination to try reverse the bad habits the Twins system has instilled.

[old nurse]

20 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Is Shelton a match for a rebuild?

He took over the Pirates and their 4th ranked (Fangraphs) farm system in 2020. They have had a top 10 system in 13 of the last 14 Fangraphs reports. They had 6 top 100 prospects when he took over. The only one of the six that has become an average major league player is Oneil Cruz and his value dropped when moved off of shortstop. Since then through last spring they had 23 different players in the top 100 prospects. Did they develop? Who is left?

Paul Skenes is very good. Oneil Cruz has a career 100 wRC+ and has moved off SS. Catcher Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez are still around both with career OPS under 600. Nick Gonzalez has a career wRC+ of 84. Mitch Keller has a career ERA of 4.51. Braxton Ashcroft and Bubba Chandler looked promising in their 8 and 4 rookie starts last year. Liover Peguero has shuttled back and forth for three years with a 74 wRC+ and is out of options. Those 9 are the good news. They are still around. Konnor Griffin and Temarr Johnson haven’t arrived yet.

The Twins have a good farm system. They have several young players in the early phase of their major league careers or are close to the majors. The Twins need a manager that will help them take the next step. Did they find one?

Maybe. They certainly aren’t going to find a manager with more experience in working with young players and helping them develop into major leaguers. Perhaps there are things he would do differently and has learned from that experience. Let’s hope the Twins are the beneficiaries of that learning.

 

Maybe what you have just proven is that being a top 100 prospect ism’t all that it is made to be by the fans. 

[old nurse]

Within a 6 year window there may be a couple of constants on the team. A team is always rebuilding. The teams with bigger budgets maybe more. The notion of a rebuild should have been planted in people’s minds 3 months ago. Short term memory loss has 2 causes that might be applicable here 

[nclahammer]

The Shelton move does nothing to inspire me as a former season ticket holder to reup, or even go to more games.   Time will tell, but his track record doesn't get my Spidey senses tingling.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Maybe what you have just proven is that being a top 100 prospect ism’t all that it is made to be by the fans. 

Very true. The only top flight prospect was Skenes,

[old nurse]

18 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Very true. The only top flight prospect was Skenes,

On a couple of cold winter days I went through the top 100 list and looked at outcomes. The outcomes were different for pitchers and hitters.  The bust rate for pitchers was much higher and pretty much did not matter where they were ranked,  Hitters was different. Where they finished in the rankings made a difference Top 10 was a high percentage of success. 10-20 a little less successful.  20-30 another drop.  Past that the results were similar. Dropping in the rankings was even less successful. Dropping out was almost all busts.  However, the once’s that did not bust in the last two categories were pretty exceptional. Memory says three of those were Judge, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. The specifics are a forgotten memory.  

[Otaknam]

Of course the Twins are in rebuild mode. That’s not even debatable after the carpet bombing the roster and the massive underperformance of Lewis, Larnach, Wallner and others, and no real first baseman, The only question is will they tear it down to the studs, which would be confirmed if they trade Ryan or Lopez, or both, which is possible. The hiring of a new manager was never going to be exciting. Even if it was Tori Hunter, which would have been stimulating in the short term, the team will still have the same issues with the current roster. The reason for optimism is that there are several high profile minor leaguers ready to make the jump like Culpepper, Jenkins, and Gonzales. And due to the trades they now have young starting pitchers with the POTENTIAL to be successful, though that’s not a sure thing. 

[Otaknam]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Firing Baldelli and hiring Shelton is just some meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Shelton will be another Falvey puppet who will exercise the ever changing failures of Falvey's philosophies. 

I don't understand why this signals a rebuild. The Pirates have been run absolutely nothing like the Twins. A manager at the MLB level teaching fundamental baseball practices makes no sense. If players haven't been developed properly in the minors, it's on the GM/PoBO (Falvey). Trying to fix all the poor fundamentals at the MLB level is an impossible task. The best we can hope for is an inclination to try reverse the bad habits the Twins system has instilled.

It’s true that minor leaguers should have solid fundamentals by the time they make the bigs. But they need to continue to work on fundamentals once they make it, and that’s up to the coaching staff.  That’s not an impossible task. That’s the coaching staff’s job, to improve and solidify fundamentals.

[Patzky]

On 10/30/2025 at 11:26 AM, djm24 said:

Just like any job hire in any occupation, I'm sure there are many reasons why the FO chose Shelton as the most qualified to be the next manager. So  rather than passing any judgment on either the FO or Shelton, let's give the guy a chance to see what he can do with the lowly Twins team. In spite of their successes with other teams, there is no guarantee that the other candidates would do a better job as Twins manager.

Probably the healthiest (and least common) attitude to have going into spring. It'll be interesting seeing a new hand in managing the starter-bullpen dynamic.

[Finlander]

Maybe Shelton came in at a lower salary than the other candidates requested.

I think the team is way overdue for a Billy Martin type manager. The meek lap dog approach hasn't been working.

[ashbury]

17 minutes ago, Finlander said:

I think the team is way overdue for a Billy Martin type manager. The meek lap dog approach hasn't been working.

Billy Martin, firebrand that he was, got ejected from ballgames at a rate of once every 47 games across 2267 games as manager.  Derek Shelton in his managerial career has been tossed once every 44 games and milquetoast Rocco Baldelli was sent to the locker room every 38 games.  Both faster rates than Martin.

Make of that what you will.  Statistics for "Pitchers Punched" are not available to me.

[Finlander]

I'm referring to getting the most out of his players, not the rate of ejections. Even as a coach, he helped Zoilo win an MVP.

[dxpavelka]

Contrary to what this site thinks the task facing management is NOT to endeavor to convince a beleaguered fanbase that the team intends to compete in 2026.  The task is to actually compete.  They are under no obligation to do so in a manner that suits your liking including who manages the team.

[dxpavelka]

On 10/30/2025 at 2:17 PM, LewFordLives said:

I see this as all about familiarity. Shelton is someone Falvey has worked with before and with whom he obviously has a certain comfort level. Whether they are doing a rebuild or spending $300 million and making a run for the title, I still think they end up with Shelton (for better or worse). There are lots of aspiring managers who would do almost anything to get the Twins job and tow  the company line, even those from outside the organization, but Falvey wants Shelton.

Anyway, I'll give Shelton a chance. Let's not forget, Tom Kelly was the ultimate in-house candidate and wasn't on many short lists to take over the job in '87.

Well put.  Especially the TK part.

[mluebker]

On 10/30/2025 at 10:01 AM, Woof Bronzer said:

Remains to be seen what the Twins do, but my belief is that they plan to run lean payrolls and lose a lot of games over the next few years while pocketing revenue shares until their mismanagement debt comes off the books and they can buy out their investors.  This strategy may well be called the Bob Nutting Plan or the Pirates Way and it's not promising that as their field chief the Twins picked a guy who spent the last 5 years implementing it.  

So on the upside, they have the most experienced guy available to help them accomplish their goals. And on the downside, you’re right—those all but certainly are their goals.

[jjswol]

I think the only signal that the Shelton hiring sends is that Falvey is a control freak and wants to do everything from being President to being the day to day manager. He should have been fired but Joe loves Falvey and it is as simple as that. Sadly the Twins are going nowhere until they get rid of Falvey.