It Would Be Irresponsible for the Twins to Not Make Joe Ryan Available This Offseason: Part 1

[Seth Stohs]

Image courtesy of © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Remember the Trade deadline, Twins fans? What a rough day! As the offseason is about to begin, things probably won't get any easier in the near future for Twins fans.

That said, it would be absolutely irresponsible for the Twins front office not to see what they can get in trade return for All Star Joe Ryan. 

You know Ryan's resume. He's been a solid starting pitcher for the Twins since leaving Tokyo after the Olympics where he learned he had been traded to the Twins from Tampa. He was an All Star in 2025, and very deservedly. He arguably earned it in 2024 as well. He came to the organization as basically a one-pitch pitcher. He worked with the pitching staff and in the offseasons to develop a fantastic slider. He has good control of multiple pitches while missing bats consistently with each of his pitches. Having those other plus-plus pitches makes his fastball even better. 

Joe Ryan will turn 30 years old early next June. He has two years remaining before becoming a free agent. MLB Trade Rumors projected Ryan to make $5.8 million in 2026 and if things go well again, he could make $10-12 million in 2027 before becoming a free agent. So, by rough estimate, a team could count on having an All-Star caliber pitcher for two years and somewhere around $15-18 million. In addition, they can decide at that point if they want to offer him the Qualifying Offer and get draft picks or sign him to a long-term deal. 

With the moves made at the 2025 deadline, and the idea that the Twins payroll may continue to go down, and we have no idea (Again) what the TV deal might look like in 2026. So, while the Twins could keep him, pay him $15-18 million over the next two years, make a Qualifying Offer, and get a draft pick. In theory, they could also sign him long-term. Does anyone reading this think that is going to happen anytime soon? But because of all that, the Twins need to get a monster haul for Ryan and not trade him just to trade him. 

Starting Pitching Market
On Friday, MLB Trade Rumors posted a preview of the top free agent starting pitchers available this offseason. 

Tier 1 includes: Dylan Cease (30) coming off of a tough season. Tatsuya Imai (28) coming over from Japan. Lefty Ranger Suarez (32) has been really solid in Philadelphia for half of a decade. And then there is Framber Valdez (30) who easily would have been tops on this list if not for what he did to his catcher late in the season. Tier 2 includes the likes of Shane Bieber, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Michael King and Brandon Woodruff. Each of them has questions, coming off of injury or performance lower than their standard. It is fair to say that Joe Ryan, if he was a free agent, would be in the first tier. 

There are also rumblings that the Tigers could make Tarik Skubal available for trade this offseason. He is likely to enter the offseason with back-to-back Cy Young Awards. Skubal has just one more season of team control.

Which Teams Need Pitching
Every team, right? But there are probably more high-spending teams that need pitching this offseason. And, since it's the offseason, even more teams could make a case to try to acquire Ryan. 

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox and Twins clearly had conversations about Ryan as the trade deadline approached. Reports indicate the two sides weren't close, but there wasn't a ton of last-minute competition. Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello are at the top of the Red Sox rotation. Lucas Giolito and Dustin May will become free agents. Tanner Houck, Hunter Dobbins, Kutter Crawford, and Patrick Sandoval all ended the season on the 60-Day IL. Payton Tolle (2@) and Connelly Early (23) were called up in mid-to-late September and pitched big innings in October. 

New York Yankees: With Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees have two of the top 10-12 starting pitchers in the league. Gerritt Cole and Clarke Schmidt needed Tommy John surgery in 2025 and would seem unlikely to be ready until maybe the second half of the 2026 season. Luis Gil came back from Tommy John surgery late this season and had some ups and downs, but he's got immense talent. Will Warren stepped up and pitched well at the bottom of the rotation. And Cam Schlitter (24) broke out late in the 2025 season. Do they need more starting pitching? Not as much as most teams, but we also know that 1.) there's never enough pitching depth and 2.) the Yankees are going to add some pitching. 

New York Mets: Kodai Senga, when healthy, has been very good. In addition, Sean Manaea can be quite good, though he's inconsistent. David Peterson has really stepped up the last couple of years and become very reliable. Jonah Tong came up and did well late in the season. But there are nothing but question marks beyond that. Frankly, the Mets should go all-in on Skubal, and even if they get him, they could still go after Ryan too. 

San Diego Padres: Cease and King will be free agents. Nestor Cortes and Yu Darvish are shells of what they once were. Randy Vasquez is a huge question mark? The Padres ownership situation may be in a stranger situation than even the Twins. They have a lot of offense talent on big contracts. But they traded approximately half of their top 20 prospects at the deadline this year, leaving it difficult to believe that they would present the Twins with a package necessary to acquire Ryan. 

Arizona Diamondbacks: Gallen and Kelly are free agents. Can Eduardo Rodriguez stay healthy. Can Brandon Pfaadt take a step forward? Presumably Corbin Burnes will miss most of the 2026 season. Arizona quietly spends money. 

Baltimore Orioles: After two or three seasons of competing in the AL East, the O's dropped to last place in 2025. Do they think they're close enough with some injury returns to make a move?

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey is making moves. #OldFriend JP Martinez is the pitching coach, and they have done well with the likes of Brandon Webb, but they have had a lot of injuries. Justin Verlander is a free agent and should probably retire. Robbie Ray? In addition, this would be sort of a coming home for Ryan. 

Chicago Cubs: What will happen with Shota Imanaga? How much of 2026 will Justin Steele miss? Can Matthew Boyd do it again? Can they rely on Jaeson Taillon? How many innings can they get from Cade Horton? 

St. Louis Cardinals: Hey, Ryan would get another season with Sonny Gray. They can use started pitching, and they have some pitching prospects. And Chaim Bloom has taken over the as the Cardinals' President of Baseball Operations after the 2025 season. Bloom held that role for the Rays when they drafted him in the seventh round of the 2018 draft. 

You could make a case that several other teams might be interested in trading for Ryan during the offseason. The Angels could certainly use Joe Ryan. 

The important thing here is that there should be a ton of legitimate competition from teams trying to acquire Joe Ryan this offseason. Check back later and we'll take a look at what packages could look like from these teams?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Always good to listen 

[old nurse]

Ryan would have been a Red Sox if they would have matched the Twins’ price. Falvey or Zoll (dear autocorrect, I did not want Zola, why are you so persistent?) can only trade him once so expect a high price as they would have to win the trade.  Will he be traded? Not until the deadline.  Of course by the deadline all those prospects listed in Seth’s other article will be leading the Twins to the top of the division. 

[mnfireman]

It would be irresponsible to trade him just for the sake of trading him. After Lopez (who I suppose will be the subject of the next trade-bait article) and Ryan, there are zero starters I trust for next year, Ober being unable to regain velocity is quite concerning.

Throw the kids out there? Only if you want a 100+ loss team. SWR is too inconsistent (typical of a 4th or 5th startter), Festa (if healthy enough to pitch in '26) Bradley, and Matthews have not shown that either is a MLB level SP, Abel did not look ready for prime time and Rojas, Raya, Prielipp and Morris are wild cards at this point, probably better off starting the season in the BP and moving to the rotation for '27, if there is a '27 season.

[Old Crow]

I would think another part of the equation is does he even want to pitch for the Twins.  

[CarolinaTwin]

IMO I would like them to keep Ryan but it would be interesting to see what offers would be available.  If he is to be traded the Twinkies should receive a starting caliber 1st baseman or an experienced catcher that’s not over the hill.  Also hoping the Twinkies start allowing players to take ownership of defensive positions instead of moving players around so much.  The same thing with the batting order.  

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

It would be irresponsible to trade him just for the sake of trading him. After Lopez (who I suppose will be the subject of the next trade-bait article) and Ryan, there are zero starters I trust for next year, Ober being unable to regain velocity is quite concerning.

Throw the kids out there? Only if you want a 100+ loss team. SWR is too inconsistent (typical of a 4th or 5th startter), Festa (if healthy enough to pitch in '26) Bradley, and Matthews have not shown that either is a MLB level SP, Abel did not look ready for prime time and Rojas, Raya, Prielipp and Morris are wild cards at this point, probably better off starting the season in the BP and moving to the rotation for '27, if there is a '27 season.

If they're a 100+ loss team without Joe Ryan, then they're a 95 loss team with him. Why keep him just to avoid 100 losses? Is it a lot better to go 68-94?

[PatPfund]

It doesn't hurt to listen, but @mnfireman is right about the rotation; Lopez, Ryan, and a bunch of question marks. I feel better about SWR, but the rest need at least two to make big steps forward; not as big a deal if they are your #4-5 SPs, but huge if you need 3 and they are everything after #2.

With a good manager hire, and a rotation that can keep the team in games while the bats sort out, this team could be competitive, and fun enough to draw audience (which the Pohlads need more than saving a few million on trading Ryan). If the rotation becomes Pablo And The Gas Cans maintenance will be cleaning up more spiderwebs than beer cups at Target Field by mid-May. (Plus I think we'd get more for Ryan at the deadline if things are grim by then.)

[DJL44]

Peralta from the Brewers will also be on the market. They like to sell and buy at the same time. They could easily fit Joe Ryan's salary into their payroll.

[TNtwins85]

If you want something for him that can help you this season and for the next 6 seasons then you trade him. There will be plenty of suitors looking for a top of the rotation pitcher getting paid $6M. That type of pitcher gets you 2 really good prospects and at least 1 or 2 more lottery tickets. Regardless of what happened and what will happen to the Twins you trade guys like that. It’s just smart. In fact 1 or maybe both of the high level prospects bring value this season. High level value over the next 6. It may be unpopular but a mid market team regardless should almost always trade a guy like Ryan. It’s not about if the ownership is incompetent. It’s about is the FO competent? If they are they cash in on Ryan this offseason.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

It would be irresponsible to trade him just for the sake of trading him. After Lopez (who I suppose will be the subject of the next trade-bait article) and Ryan, there are zero starters I trust for next year, Ober being unable to regain velocity is quite concerning.

Throw the kids out there? Only if you want a 100+ loss team. SWR is too inconsistent (typical of a 4th or 5th startter), Festa (if healthy enough to pitch in '26) Bradley, and Matthews have not shown that either is a MLB level SP, Abel did not look ready for prime time and Rojas, Raya, Prielipp and Morris are wild cards at this point, probably better off starting the season in the BP and moving to the rotation for '27, if there is a '27 season.

Do you expect payroll to increase in 2026?

The ‘25 Twins were a 92 loss team, and started the season with a much better team than what they ended with.

if payroll stays the same or drops for ‘26, 70 and 92 feels pretty optimistic, unless they turn pitching into hitters, and the young pitchers step-up

[SteveLV]

If you are going to trade him, this is the time to do so, if not last trade deadline.

If you want to keep him, this is the time to extend him.

But we KNOW the Twins are not going to extend, so it is time to trade if a good offer can be garnered.

[TNtwins85]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they're a 100+ loss team without Joe Ryan, then they're a 95 loss team with him. Why keep him just to avoid 100 losses? Is it a lot better to go 68-94?

Add in to that that they are not gonna sign a 30 yo SP to a long term deal. If you trade him now you most likely get 2 guys that contribute this year. That supplants Ryan’s value this year and out of the hopefully 3-4 guys you get supplants Ryan’s value the next 6 years. Gives you a better chance to compete in ‘27 then Ryan does in ‘26 and ‘27. He was good this year but not Cy Young good. The bar is 4.5 WAR. Or 11 WAR over his career to this point. If you take emotion out of the equation a Ryan trade just makes sense.

[IndianaTwin]

I’d prefer the language of “it would be irresponsible not to listen to offers” over “make him available.” The former implies listening, the latter implies actively pursuing trades. 

It would also be irresponsible for them to take anything less than a haul. The farm system is considered strong, so I would expect two major league ready players, particularly a catcher and a first baseman. I don’t like the thought of trading Ryan, but I also don’t like the thought of what is currently on the roster for those two positions. 

[NYCTK]

38 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Peralta from the Brewers will also be on the market. They like to sell and buy at the same time. They could easily fit Joe Ryan's salary into their payroll.

Other arms that might be on the trade block include Bubic and Sonny Gray. 

[NYCTK]

Mets offer seems to be maxing out at:

Jett Williams - near MLB ready SS/2B/CF that would slot ahead of Culpepper as the Twins #2 prospect 

Ryan Clifford - near MLB ready 1B prospect (and he is a redhead so the Clifford The Big Red Dawg merch is just waiting to be printed) 

+1 more 40 FV prospect of your choosing 

As both a Twins and Mets fan, I think this is a Twins trade win. Jett can be a real dynamic player as soon as next season. He struggled a bit when he got to AAA but on a team in need, could start the year in the bigs. He's the type of player that would fit in perfectly with the Brewers. 

But, I don't expect this trade to even be discussed until the league knows what's happening with Skubal. 

 

[Jeff K]

Twins need to listen, but should not be enticed by prospects.  They need players who can contribute at the major league level.  Pretty much anywhere on the infield.

[tony&rodney]

The 2025 MN Twins were not an entertaining club to watch. Joe Ryan is one of the two most interesting players on the roster. Byron Buxton is the other. Why would the Twins trade Joe Ryan? 

My response is that the decision is actually pretty simple. The Twins must examine the assets of all organization around baseball as well as their own. Falvey and his pals need to comb through the needs of teams and seek mutually beneficial trades. Every player can and should be discussed. Obviously, only a few players would be traded. Joe Ryan fits the needs of a number of teams. Seth mentioned a few. I would add Sacramento and Detroit. Does Ryan push those two rosters or others into the playoffs? The return is important. I would expect a few teams have an interest in playoff baseball and should be willing to pay a fair price in players.

It is possible to see a return of an established position player for Ryan but a prospect from AA or AAA may also tip the balance. The Twins need to add athleticism to their roster. There are opportunities. 

The Twins were among the healthier of MLB clubs in 2025 and still they struggled with their current collection of players. The late July purge of the bullpen would be puzzling if it wasn't followed by more transactions this winter. The current roster is not balanced enough to play consistently good baseball. Joe Ryan is the best chance to return a solid player, but other deals also should be accomplished. Lastly, while the young inexperienced pitchers are unsteady now, there is potential. I can see the Twins receiving a pitcher from a trade or two, but the focus in trading Joe Ryan should be strictly for position players. If all of the young pitchers don't have much of a future that portends a much, much deeper rebuild.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Old Crow said:

I would think another part of the equation is does he even want to pitch for the Twins.  

This keeps being said, but I’m not sure that’s the case.  Although I’m certain he would rather be on a team headed for the postseason, I don’t recall him ever really saying that he didn’t want to be a Twin.  

Joe Ryan is a little weird — in mostly good ways.  That makes him and what he says a little hard to figure out.  I have.known many people in my (former) field that have been like that also.  Their lack of enthusiasm and/or wearing emotions on their sleeve were more weird personality traits than they were negative intent.  Could he want out?  Sure, but I’m not so sure that it’s really as apparent as it first appears.  

[Otaknam]

If they get an offer they can’t refuse take it But I would be surprised if that would be for positions players, first and catcher as other have suggested. You would have to get at least one top pitching prospect in a trade. Lefties Tolle or Early from the Red Sox are intriguing in a package with another high level prospect or two makes sense to me. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

On the subject of making him available/listening to offers, I would agree that it would be malpractice to not do so (for every single player every single year actually).  However, I still need to be a little blown away to make a trade happen.  Aside from my concern over the return and what might be settled for, I’m worried that now that it’s been in the forefront for so long, it is inevitable and the Twins’ front office will feel like the trade MUST be made.  That’s when mistakes are made and trades made for poor returns.  Remember, he doesn’t HAVE to be traded — we can still do that at the deadline or next year (or at next yer’s deadline).  

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

On the subject of making him available/listening to offers, I would agree that it would be malpractice to not do so (for every single player every single year actually).  However, I still need to be a little blown away to make a trade happen.  Aside from my concern over the return and what might be settled for, I’m worried that now that it’s been in the forefront for so long, it is inevitable and the Twins’ front office will feel like the trade MUST be made.  That’s when mistakes are made and trades made for poor returns.  Remember, he doesn’t HAVE to be traded — we can still do that at the deadline or next year (or at next yer’s deadline).  

This is really important. The Twins DO NOT NEED TO TRADE Joe Ryan. They DO NEED to make some deals to improve the roster.

I actually believe it might be possible to complete 2-3 minor trades (well, at least less major) before sinking deep into possibilities that involve Ryan. It would also be good the see the Twins add a reserve FA catcher in early November.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

This keeps being said, but I’m not sure that’s the case.  Although I’m certain he would rather be on a team headed for the postseason, I don’t recall him ever really saying that he didn’t want to be a Twin.   

I think he might have said something in one post-July 31 interview that hinted at him being frustrated. Not an unlikely reaction from any human being when coworkers they appreciate have been removed from the work environment  

But on the internet, that counts as factual, forever and ever, Amen. Be prepared to hear this as a mantra for as long as Ryan is here, even if that’s after departing as a free agent following two more seasons. Or even longer as in the case of Sonny Gray, for whom repeated comments about liking the Twins and being open to staying still haven’t outweighed in some minds a couple of negative reactions at having been pulled from a game, reactions that I would add are actually the kind a team wants to have from its most competitive athletes. 

[jorgenswest]

Yes. They should listen.

You don’t trade a player with multiple years of service time unless you get blown away. Because his salary will go up after this year the greater portion of his remaining excess value is this season. He should be worth more than twice as much now as he will a year from now. That is all in theory. In practice you don’t get that much more for the extra year. They need the headliner to be someone in or very near the top ten overall prospects. If they don’t get that wait until next year. They will still be able to get players in the top 100 a year from now. This year it has to be the top of the top 100 or hold him. I don’t think they will get that offer so they should happily hold him.

[theBOMisthebomb]

I don't like this discussion. He Ain't No Ordinary Joe Ryan is "My Guy". 

[Mahoning]

Trading him to a good team would be an act of Christian charity. Rewards in heaven for Falvey and Zoll.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

It doesn't hurt to listen, but @mnfireman is right about the rotation; Lopez, Ryan, and a bunch of question marks. I feel better about SWR, but the rest need at least two to make big steps forward; not as big a deal if they are your #4-5 SPs, but huge if you need 3 and they are everything after #2.

With a good manager hire, and a rotation that can keep the team in games while the bats sort out, this team could be competitive, and fun enough to draw audience (which the Pohlads need more than saving a few million on trading Ryan). If the rotation becomes Pablo And The Gas Cans maintenance will be cleaning up more spiderwebs than beer cups at Target Field by mid-May. (Plus I think we'd get more for Ryan at the deadline if things are grim by then.)

Competitive for what?  A possible run at the last wildcard slot?  And a quick exit from the playoffs?

[bean5302]

Everything depends on strategy. I don't really trust Falvey can build an effective one.

Quotes from owner representative Joe Pohlad suggest there could be a rebuild coming in which case, yes, Joe Ryan 100% SHOULD be traded for whatever the team can get, not just "made available"

On the other hand, ownership statements carry absolutely zero credibility now. It was already weak since the Pohlads just simply will not do their job and hold the front office accountable. Nobody in professional gets the kind of leash Falvey has gotten. It's absolutely ludicrous a GM/President of Baseball Operations or whatever the heck you want to call him can be given so many resources, so much support, so much inherited talent and then produce nothing noteworthy year in and year out in what has been the weakest division in the game for a decade.

If Ryan is traded, the trade needs to happen in December so Falvey doesn't screw it up yet again by overpricing, then waiting too long before finding himself out of suitors who can really pay. I don't think Falvey has the talent for his position so I believe ownership will need to provide him a specific deadline to move Ryan or Falvey absolutely will fail again like he did with other valuable, controllable, established talent like Dozier, Kepler and Polanco. The risk of holding onto Ryan into camp reporting date is gargantuan. 

 

[jjswol]

Listening always makes sense. But, I would not trade Ryan for just prospects, I'm tired of getting prospects. There are new prospects every year. If you are going to trade Ryan I want to get some big league proven (not big league ready prospects) players be they hitters or pitchers. This team is not in a total rebuild at this time.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

If they get an offer they can’t refuse take it But I would be surprised if that would be for positions players, first and catcher as other have suggested. You would have to get at least one top pitching prospect in a trade. Lefties Tolle or Early from the Red Sox are intriguing in a package with another high level prospect or two makes sense to me. 

Good catching prospects almost ready for the majors cost a fortune. You take that every time.

the Twins have shown capability to develop pitchers. Not so much hitters.