It Would Be Irresponsible for the Twins to Not Make Joe Ryan Available This Offseason: Part 1

[rdehring]

12 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Lots of interesting takes.  None more insightful than bean5302.  I have always complained that Twins Front Offices, whether it was the old Terry Ryan regime or the latest Twins executives, NEVER seemed to have a "Plan" going into the off season or the trade deadline.  We always seemed RE-active rather than PRO-active

We've heard from past and present FO's that there were no restrictions on the FO from making a trade to improve the team.  Yet we as fans could see that to believe the "company line" was illogical.  

This lack of a clear plan left the Twins with some strange off season additions (Joey Gallo, Mike Shoemaker, the list is LONG) or deadline deals that had no impact or that were made just to say "see, we did something."  This is the path of a FO that really doesn't have a plan.  And the Pohlad family has never seemed to hold a FO accountable.  This would be a large indicator of why their other business interests are not doing well.  

This is always why we feel the team is dumpster diving.  You dumpster dive if you have no alternative.  If you have enough money to go to McDonald's and buy a cheeseburger off the value menu, you don't dumpster dive.  If you have enough money to go to Pittsburg Blue, you don't consider the value menu at McDonalds.  

The Front Offices of the Twins have repeatedly lied and the Pohlad family has repeatedly lied to Twins fans. There is no logical reason to trust them or trust they will make a deal for Ryan that would be beneficial.  

But even though they don't "HAVE" to trade Ryan they have a chance to make a deal to significantly improve the team.  They should be trading from a position of strength with Joe Ryan.  If they aren't getting what they want from a team, hang up the phone and move on.  Bean5302 is correct, they should trade him in December either AT the Winter Meetings or shortly thereafter.  

The idea that we should not expect an accomplished, productive major league player as PART of the package is essential.  Prospects will always be a part of a trade like this.  But the Twins need to find a good, young major league hitter who is also a good defender to enhance their lineup.  Someone who fits the profile of,  but not necessarily  "IS"  Wilyer Abreu of the Red Sox.  The Red Sox have too many OF.  They can't play them all, even if they DH one of them.  Abreu has won a Gold Glove.  His career OPS is .791.  He will turn 27 years old mid-2026 season.  

It isn't necessary to make the Ryan trade the 1st trade of this off season, but his trade should be the foundation for all the other moves the Twins make.  Making a trade or 2 before trading Ryan reshapes who we might be interested in for other trades.  It makes other deals possible.  

Note:  Seth, I think you meant to type LOGAN Webb (SP Giants) not Brandon.  And if you're going to mention Tong in the list of pitchers the Mets have, you certainly need to mention Nolan McLean.  

I imagine we will revisit this topic multiple times between now and the New Year.  

 

What a fantastic comment TopGunn, thanks.

Have been on the road the past couple days so am late looking at this.  What a wonderful conversation.  Hopefully, someone in the front office is reading this.

Will begin with a question for those talking about trading him next summer or next winter.  Until there is a settlement on a new CBA, next winter very likely doesn't exist.  So for me, that makes a move this winter more important if trading Ryan is near the top of their off-season plan.  That's assuming they have a plan.  And if there is no baseball in 2027, they really have him for only one more year.  Not two.

We read nearly every day in some article here and elsewhere about the Pohlad's being cheap.  But that's not their biggest problem.  At least in my opinion.  Their biggest problem for me is not holding Falvey and the front office accountable.  Why do I say that?  In part because too many of their trades have returned pitchers who have been injured when acquired.  It began at the deadline several years back when they got that Giants reliever who pitched what, a couple innings?  Then there was Mahle from Cincinnati.  And that was followed by the Polanco trade with another starter who never pitched an inning.  Fool the front office once, ok.  But three times in about as many years in baseball is a big K.

While reading the above comments I also began thinking about their catching situation.  They have a need for a backup catcher in 2026.  Several comments suggest part of a Ryan trade should return a big league ready catcher.  Got me wondering why because they have Tait?  But Tait is one to two years away and in better fits the plan as a Jeffers replacement.  So getting a catcher this off-season does make sense.  A lot of sense, although it doesn't have to be part of a Ryan trade.  Could also be the return for say Larnach, or Larnach plus one of our catching prospects not named Tiat or Jiminez.

      

 

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, rdehring said:

What a fantastic comment TopGunn, thanks.

Have been on the road the past couple days so am late looking at this.  What a wonderful conversation.  Hopefully, someone in the front office is reading this.

Will begin with a question for those talking about trading him next summer or next winter.  Until there is a settlement on a new CBA, next winter very likely doesn't exist.  So for me, that makes a move this winter more important if trading Ryan is near the top of their off-season plan.  That's assuming they have a plan.  And if there is no baseball in 2027, they really have him for only one more year.  Not two.

We read nearly every day in some article here and elsewhere about the Pohlad's being cheap.  But that's not their biggest problem.  At least in my opinion.  Their biggest problem for me is not holding Falvey and the front office accountable.  Why do I say that?  IN part because too many of their trades have returned pitchers who have been injured when acquired.  It began at the deadline several years back when they got that Giants reliever who pitched what, a couple innings?  Then there was Mahle from Cincinnati.  And that was followed by the Polanco trade with another starter who never pitched an inning.  Fool the front office once, ok.  But three times in about as many years in baseball is a big K.

While reading the above comments I also began thinking about their catching situation.  They have a need for a backup catcher in 2026.  Several comments suggest part of a Ryan trade should return a big league ready catcher.  Got me wondering why because they have Tait?  But Tait is one to two years away and in better fits the plan as a Jeffers replacement.  So getting a catcher this off-season does make sense.  A lot of sense, although it doesn't have to be part of a Ryan trade.  Could also be the return for say Larnach, or Larnach plus one of our catching prospects not names Tiat or Jiminez.

      

 

The ownership does seem removed from evaluations of the front office. Now that Falvey is both business and baseball guru, one wonders where any real checks can be. I'm concerned by the tenor of the front office but also deflated in the knowledge we must accept the results. So I just hope for the changes which is all one can do as a fan. No use in crying.

I do not believe the owners will proceed with a lengthy lock out. My early prediction is the loss of some games in April. There is a fair amount of discord nationally from small to mid market teams concerning the vast differences in payrolls, which are largely the result of inequitable revenue sharing. However, the owners ultimately vote. It is hard to believe 16 clubs will vote to close down their sources of income. While a few teams may be losing money, the number making money is clearly in the majority.

The Twins need to complete somewhere from 3-7 trades this winter to change the nature of their roster. It is simply not a competitive collection at this time. The purge of the bullpen would be very strange if not followed by further deals. At some point and in some fashion the Twins should add a catcher or two. Tait will return to Cedar Rapids in 2026 which puts him on a possible MLB appearance 2028 or later. He may transition to first base if he doesn't make it as a catcher, but he can swing a bat. Hopefully the front office turns every stone and listens and considers ideas on all of their players; anything to improve the team. While I love watching Joe Ryan pitch his value suggests he is moved this winter. His loss will be felt, so the return needs to be worthwhile.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, JBK said:

Our starting pitching is our only strength.  Why tear that apart too?  That would be irresponsible.

"Degree of Difficulty" is one of the criteria when they hand out year-end front office awards at the Winter Meetings in December 2026.  🙃

[SarasotaBill]

He's got two years left in his contract so there's no rush.

Mid-season provides another 6 months of development that will give more insight into the future. 

Just too many questions about the young MLB Twins and the high end of prospects.

Even a mid-season trade provides teams two playoff years.  

[SteveLV]

If the Mets don't want to trade McLean, then don't trade Ryan to the Mets as far as I am concerned.  They need pitching coming back and I am not sold on the other P's in their system.

And I would want MORE than McLean for Ryan.

It is certainly possible the Mets will not trade McLean, and that is their prerogative.  Just as it is the Twins' not to trade Ryan, or not trade him to the Mets.

[Steve J]

I don't think this team is too far from a winning record.  It would have been easier if we hadn't dismantled our bullpen, but we also shed our roster of several players that were not providing a whole lot of offensive value at positions where offensive value is expected and should be easy to find.
  

[sweetmusicviola16]

6 hours ago, rdehring said:

What a fantastic comment TopGunn, thanks.

Have been on the road the past couple days so am late looking at this.  What a wonderful conversation.  Hopefully, someone in the front office is reading this.

Will begin with a question for those talking about trading him next summer or next winter.  Until there is a settlement on a new CBA, next winter very likely doesn't exist.  So for me, that makes a move this winter more important if trading Ryan is near the top of their off-season plan.  That's assuming they have a plan.  And if there is no baseball in 2027, they really have him for only one more year.  Not two.

We read nearly every day in some article here and elsewhere about the Pohlad's being cheap.  But that's not their biggest problem.  At least in my opinion.  Their biggest problem for me is not holding Falvey and the front office accountable.  Why do I say that?  In part because too many of their trades have returned pitchers who have been injured when acquired.  It began at the deadline several years back when they got that Giants reliever who pitched what, a couple innings?  Then there was Mahle from Cincinnati.  And that was followed by the Polanco trade with another starter who never pitched an inning.  Fool the front office once, ok.  But three times in about as many years in baseball is a big K.

While reading the above comments I also began thinking about their catching situation.  They have a need for a backup catcher in 2026.  Several comments suggest part of a Ryan trade should return a big league ready catcher.  Got me wondering why because they have Tait?  But Tait is one to two years away and in better fits the plan as a Jeffers replacement.  So getting a catcher this off-season does make sense.  A lot of sense, although it doesn't have to be part of a Ryan trade.  Could also be the return for say Larnach, or Larnach plus one of our catching prospects not named Tiat or Jiminez.

      

 

Don't forget about Chris Paddack when you mention trades for faulty pitchers. 

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, SteveLV said:

And I would want MORE than McLean for Ryan.

Hate to break it to you, but your expectations are wildly unrealistic and you're inevitably going to be disappointed because I think it's very, very likely that he's traded. 

Tong or Sproat aren't necessarily the best possible SP prospect that the Twins would get in return - that'd probably be Tolle? But they're in that same bucket. Prospects of McLean quality, a top 10 prospect, aren't even in discussion. I can promise you that. 

[Jacksson]

It's LOGAN Webb !!

[Jacksson]

Who do we ask for from the Giants?

We already got Shawn Anderson & Sam Dyson in other trades.

[Jacksson]

Twinkies need to establish a list of players/prospects that they want.  Not just taking whatever a trade partner will offer.  Go after those identified prospects and be ready to walk away if those players cannot be obtained.  Keep in mind, that although a three way trade adds complexity, it may get you what you want if the team that wants what you've got doesn't have what you want AND if the team with the player you want isn't interested in the player that you've got.  It involves: creativity. research, imagination and diligence. 

Then 

[JADBP]

19 hours ago, NYCTK said:

A. There's zero percent chance Nolan McLean would be traded straight up for Joe Ryan. So forget that idea. 

B. The Twins will not be at all competitive with Brooks Lee as their SS.

A.  Maybe, maybe not.  I’d say Ryan is close to a top 10-20 SP, still fairly young, and has been robust—never lost a year to TJ.  So you know you are getting a rock solid MLB SP pretty much fully formed.  On the other hand, while McLean is in AAA you just never know with any P (other than maybe Skenes).  There is always some risk with SPs. Maybe there’s a higher upside than McLean, but maybe not—who knows? McLean is not quite ready for prime time where Ryan is ready for the playoffs now. And I’d expect Ryan still has a little more room to improve even further.  
 

B.  I like Lee a lot but yeah he’s not our long term answer at SS.  But the Twins are not competitive at all, they are in total rebuild mode.  They have some options coming up at SS so I wouldn’t trade for a SS yet.  The bigger need is at 1B and C.
 

We are rebuilding so do trades that support our needs. SP, RP, 1B and C.  And whatever else we trade away this offseason.  Forget winning next year.  Focus on building, training, instruction, perfection.  

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

Twinkies need to establish a list of players/prospects that they want.  Not just taking whatever a trade partner will offer.  Go after those identified prospects and be ready to walk away if those players cannot be obtained.  Keep in mind, that although a three way trade adds complexity, it may get you what you want if the team that wants what you've got doesn't have what you want AND if the team with the player you want isn't interested in the player that you've got.  It involves: creativity. research, imagination and diligence. 

Then 

2.  Then

3.  ????

4.  Profit!  🙃

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, JADBP said:

A.  Maybe, maybe not.

No. I'm not being stubborn, I'm just telling he's 100% not. He's not in AAA. As of right now, he's the opening day starter for the Mets next season. 

Tong is the one that's not quite ready for prime time. McLean pitched about 50 innings with top results. That's the definition of ready for prime time. 

We all like Joe Ryan, and I think it's more accurate to say he's in the 20-40 best SP range than 10-20 (still really good). There's nearly a coin flip chance that McLean is better than Ryan next year, much less the 5 years of control after that. 

I'm telling you, 100%, there's no team in all of baseball that would trade Nolan McLean for Joe Ryan. 

 

As for B. I agree. Next year's a punt year. If something good happens, you roll with it, but you're next exhausting resources to try to compete. And I'm also OK with Lee at SS for that reason. I think Jett is a slightly better prospect than Culpepper, but it's really close and both could flame out or keep improving. Having both wouldn't be a bad problem. 

[TopGunn#22]

The current Baseball Trade Value for Joe Ryan is 47.0.  That's down from an All Star break high of 73.0

The current value for Nolan McLean on BBTV is 21.6.  

The Mets pitching staff and their ages as of today:  Senga 32, Holmes 32, Peterson 30, Manaea 33, McLean 24, Tong, 22 and Sproat 25.  Tonga has a value of 12.6 and Peterson 7.0.  Peterson is on the last year of his contract paying him $4.625 million, quite a bargain for how he's pitched and he's a FA in 2027.  Maybe the Mets would try to extend him.  The Mets don't have a SP under 30 other than their "prospects" McLean, Tong and Sproat.  

Ryan has the talent and the track record they can depend on NOW.  McLean showed promise last season, but he's 24 years old. (he's not Doc Gooden or even Noah Syndergaard). His sample size is small.  Yes, he's promising, but if the Twins insist on a package headlined by McLean the Mets would have to think long and hard.  

The Mets OF is old:  Marte 37, Mullins 31, Nimmo 32, Soto 27, Tyrone Taylor 31.  Marte is on his last legs.

Why not offer the Mets Trevor Larnach (1.3 value) to play RF along with Ryan (47.0) and Andrew Morris (4.1) and Cody Clemens (4.5)  Total: 56.9   for...  McLean (21.6) Jett Williams (23.1) and Mark Vientos (11.7) 56.3.  

 

[SteveLV]

I am asking a question out of genuine curiosity and not a backhanded criticism:  Is there any actual real-world evidence that Baseball Trade Values represents even ballpark values for players???  Obviously, each team may see players differently, but have there been any trades where the BBTV numbers corresponded----even roughly--to what went down in real life?  Did anyone run the raft of moves the Twins made at last years' deadline through BBTV to see if they were close? 

[KBJ1]

The Twins need, and have needed for years, a RH, athletic,  5 tool letft fielder and a 1B. We draft a dozen SS every year - so trading for one would prove their complete ineptitude at drafting. 

[Riverbrian]

Joe Ryan has the highest value of all players on the Twins roster.  Therefore... in theory he returns the most in a trade. 

His value will never be higher than it is right now. We have multiple holes to fill. It pains me to say it but you trade him this off-season. 

Everything going forward is going to lower his trade value and I mean everything is going to lower his trade value. 

Trade him now... you have two years of control to sell. Trade him at the deadline you have 1 year and 2 months of control to sell. Trade him next off-season... you are trading an expiring contract and his value crashes especially when his arb 3 raise goes to 16M to go along with that 1 year of team control. His value just goes straight down from here. If he gets hurt in the first half... Oh Boy... His current value could be erased at the drop of a hat. 

The time to trade him is now. 

I can't see any reason where the Mets would trade McLean for Ryan. The Mets need to add arms... not trade arms. The Mets need McLean and Ryan.  

[TopGunn#22]

8 hours ago, SteveLV said:

I am asking a question out of genuine curiosity and not a backhanded criticism:  Is there any actual real-world evidence that Baseball Trade Values represents even ballpark values for players???  Obviously, each team may see players differently, but have there been any trades where the BBTV numbers corresponded----even roughly--to what went down in real life?  Did anyone run the raft of moves the Twins made at last years' deadline through BBTV to see if they were close? 

This is a very valid question SteveLV.  There is nothing that compels any of us to accept that BBTV is even in the ballpark in valuing players.  In fact, I wouldn't be the least surprised if many teams had wildly different valuations on very high profile players.

Another flaw in BBTV is that it overly values "prospects."  If you are young and put together a good major league (or even a minor league) season, your value absolutely SKYROCKETS in BBTV.  As soon as your salary starts to ascend, your value goes down...a LOT.  It's how you can have a probable "back to back" Cy Young Award winner like Tarik Skubal with a value of 51.6.  I'll bet Walker Jenkins has a higher value.

The allure of BBTV is that they have a somewhat understandable formula and, it's basically all we've got. Otherwise, we're all just looking at the back of baseball cards and proposing trades that are ridiculous.  With BBTV we can at least propose trades that are "mildly absurd."  

In my case, I don't pay the premium to propose the trades on the sight.  But I love to go there and see what other people propose.  From there I can see what various players are worth, like Joe Ryan at 47.0 and Nolan McLean at 21.6.  I just like to dream up trades.  It's kind of like a mental exercise.  What would the Mets want?  What do the Twins need?  

But I don't have the complete listing of players and values the Twins or Mets have, so what I'm proposing is limited by what players values I've seen.  I am operating on limited information.  That's why from time to time I'll throw out a request to Doc Gast to propose a trade.  Because he pays for the right to see all the values and frequently posts trades on the site.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

On 10/25/2025 at 10:14 AM, terrydactyls said:

Competitive for what?  A possible run at the last wildcard slot?  And a quick exit from the playoffs?

One could argue that that describes virtually every team in the AL this year and most teams in the NL not named the Dodgers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Thinking out loud here; I don't hate the idea of St. Louis as a destination for him. The Twins have made deals with their new president before, and they seem to have a lot of options for catching as a starting point on a deal. Pages or Crooks or Bernal all could be a starting point of a deal, and then another major league ready player and a couple of prospects is a decent starting point on a deal. At least something worth considering.

Frankly, if they could somehow turn Ryan into Masyn Winn and Leonardo Bernal, that would help two positions on defense for the team with young controllable guys. I don't know that St. Louis would do that, but it sure would be fun in my opinion. That said, I bet Winn is not touchable there, unless of course they think JJ Wetherholt could hold down the SS position defensively.

The deal with Boston for me is harder to envision. Like others have mentioned, IF they trade Ryan (they don't HAVE to, even if he requests one, there will be a market for him, so it will be a haul, and that does NOT mean equal value on the baseball trades site) and I truly don't see the point AS MUCH to prioritize an outfielder being the centerpiece of a deal here. Well, unless they truly don't think all that highly of Jenkins or Rodriguez and their futures, which for 2026 I almost think they have to be banking on them producing at some point.

[Stew]

Are you crazy. He is almost an ace. Under team control and paid a low amount of money. We need to give things a year or two. That way we get full value from him. And have a chance to be competitive when the young kids come along.

[NYCTK]

15 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The current Baseball Trade Value for Joe Ryan is 47.0.  That's down from an All Star break high of 73.0

This is a perfect example of why it's an interesting tool but deeply flawed. Like all the AI tools. 

So, rough napkin math, that's projecting as Joe Ryan as 3.5 WAR the next two seasons, seems appropriate. 

But then, it seems as though McLean is being projected for approximately 5.5 WAR over his 6 seasons of team control. That seems appropriate for the next tier of prospects, someone like Tong or Tolle, but as I said, McLean has graduated and will be ahead of Ryan in a fair amount of power rankings and projection systems next year. His stuff has been seen at the major league level and it's spectacular. 

No team in baseball would trade McLean for Joe Ryan. Not one. 

15 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Why not offer the Mets Trevor Larnach (1.3 value) to play RF along with Ryan (47.0) and Andrew Morris (4.1) and Cody Clemens (4.5)  Total: 56.9   for...  McLean (21.6) Jett Williams (23.1) and Mark Vientos (11.7) 56.3. 

This is a laughably bad trade for the Mets. You post this on Twitter and Mets Twitter would swarm you with ridicule. 

Kody Clemens having any value is laughable in itself. He's a waiver wire rider for the remainder of his career. His value is exactly 0.0. Same with Andrew Morris effectively. That quality of arm is available a hundred times every season on the wire. And the Mets have no need for another OF that plays bad defense. 

Ryan and Buxton...now we're talking. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

imo, BBTV is a fantasy League baseball tool. It's not a real life tool. It is fun and I compared trades when it was free. Enjoyed it. As for Ryan now is the time to deal him. His value will not be higher next off season, it will be significantly lower. His peak value was likely in July actually. Having a Cy Young type of season.  To me you get the best prospects possible that will fit into your competitive window. That also means that you have to finish off developing them. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

14 hours ago, SteveLV said:

I am asking a question out of genuine curiosity and not a backhanded criticism:  Is there any actual real-world evidence that Baseball Trade Values represents even ballpark values for players???  Obviously, each team may see players differently, but have there been any trades where the BBTV numbers corresponded----even roughly--to what went down in real life?  Did anyone run the raft of moves the Twins made at last years' deadline through BBTV to see if they were close? 

It's a fan run site, and it's fun for thought experiments, but by no means do actual front offices use it to gauge a player's value. Everyone has their own way of valuing their own players' and other teams players.

[Cory Engelhardt]

11 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

The Twins need, and have needed for years, a RH, athletic,  5 tool letft fielder and a 1B. We draft a dozen SS every year - so trading for one would prove their complete ineptitude at drafting. 

JUST for argument's sake; Miguel Sano and Michael Cuddyer were drafted or signed as SS's. Same with both Joe Nathan and Jacob DeGrom. Most teams draft or sign (if they are 16) SS's, Catcher's, center fielders or pitchers because that's where youth league teams have their best players play.

So, if you are a drafting team, and you are wanting to draft high school kids, if they are a position player a LOT of the time they are going to be a SS, CF or catcher.

[twinfan]

I think it would be totally stupid to trade Ryan or Lopez...yet. We have Ober, Matthews and Richardson to combine with them. And someone said we are non-competitive right now?? Why? We have Buxton, an improving Lewis and some decent bats like Wallner, Keashall, Lee and even Larnach who could all improve plus Jeffers who has done well. How many do you need to win? I'm looking at the Blue Jays in the WS and seeing names that are more pieces than the 2-3 stars they have. Let's see who we can get in free agency and go with the first half of the season before further completely breaking up the team (again). Just my (optimistic) opinion.

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Joe Ryan has the highest value of all players on the Twins roster.  

Which means he has the highest value to the Twins themselves right now.  If they were going for it.  Which trading all their good bullpen arms under 2025-26 control denies they will be doing.  Which is what makes me sick.

[Riverbrian]

23 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Which means he has the highest value to the Twins themselves right now.  If they were going for it.  Which trading all their good bullpen arms under 2025-26 control denies they will be doing.  Which is what makes me sick.

The ship is in motion. 

Tough to turn that thing around now. 

I've never sailed a ship. I've been told that you got to go out a few miles in order to turn around. 

I don't know if that's true or not. The plastic ship that I play with in my bathtub can turn on a dime.  

[ashbury]

16 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The ship is in motion. 

Tough to turn that thing around now. 

I've never sailed a ship. I've been told that you got to go out a few miles in order to turn around. 

I don't know if that's true or not. The plastic ship that I play with in my bathtub can turn on a dime.  

I've rebuilt franchises in one off-season playing OOTP.

(Easy mode)