These Three Twins Are Approaching Make-Or-Break Status

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

With so many impact players shipped out at the trade deadline, opportunity has emerged for a handful of players to stake their claim headed into 2026. Their performance for the remainder of the season may not only determine their role next year, but whether they’re on the roster at all. There’s also a group of players who, while they haven’t quite reached that point, they’re approaching it very quickly. For this group, their performance this season and early in 2026 will be significant for their future with the Minnesota Twins organization.

OF Alan Roden
As unfair as it is, it’s hard to be anything but disappointed in Roden, who was half of the return from Toronto in the Louis Varland trade. He posted a .463 OPS in 40 plate appearances with the Twins before being shut down with a thumb injury. He also struggled mightily with the Blue Jays earlier this season.

Roden may be the opening day left fielder regardless, as it’s easy to see a scenario in which Trevor Larnach’s arbitration of around $5m is seen as untenable. Roden is a plus defender and easily edges Larnach in that department but lacks even fleeting glimpses of offensive upside so far in his career.

Acquiring another left-handed hitting outfielder was always questionable, given the team’s already existing logjam in that department. Roden was given a head start down the stretch and will have nothing to show for it. He’ll have to hit immediately in 2026, or any number of upcoming corner outfield bats from either side of the plate could get their shot. There is no shortage of candidates to take at-bats away from him if he struggles next season, including Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kyler Fedko, Austin Martin, and potentially even Walker Jenkins eventually.

RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
Unfortunately, an IL trip due to illness interrupted Woods Richardson's bounce-back from early-season struggles. While not quite up to the standard he set as a rookie, SWR has performed more than adequately to continue to fill the back end of the rotation. He should still return this season to continue building on his new splitter, which has helped him turn things around. He’s posted a serviceable 4.40 ERA since he began throwing the new pitch on May 14.

Unfortunately for Woods Richardson, the Twins added a wave of competition at the deadline. Mick Abel and Taj Bradley blow him away in the raw stuff department, and we’ll likely see them before the end of the season (or, weekend) in the big-league rotation. Kendry Rojas has struggled in his debut with St. Paul but will likely be up sometime next season.

Woods Richardson has to pitch well down the stretch, or his role could be in jeopardy. Even if the Twins trade away a starter or two this offseason to save some money, they have a glut of rotation depth with plenty of upside. The Twins could look to either trade him or move him to the bullpen shortly if he doesn’t fully cement himself as part of the 2026 rotation.

3B Royce Lewis
The vibes don’t seem great with Lewis, who once looked like one of the core pieces cemented in the Twins lineup. It’s been over a year since we’ve seen consistent production from the Twins third baseman, and his occasional eyebrow-raising quotes pointing to unhappiness with the team are beginning to add up.

At this point, it’s safe to assume that Royce’s frustrations with the team are reciprocated. His .632 OPS since August 1 of 2024 is a huge reason the Twins offense has been so lackluster, and he’s been slid down the lineup recently as he’s failed to show any signs of consistency. We’re approaching the point where we have to ask whether Lewis is the player we thought he was.

The Twins will likely be asking this very question soon as well. Lewis will have the remainder of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 to turn it around, but the decisions become difficult as players like Kaelen Culpepper approach MLB readiness. An offense can’t be competitive with a third baseman performing the way Lewis has for the last year, and the repeated headline-worthy quotes are likely getting tiresome on the business end. After once holding a near-untouchable status, Lewis may soon find himself on the verge of being squeezed out of the depth chart.

 

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[Jeff K]

Royce isn't going anywhere.  His trade value is at a low point and the Twins are too invested to dump him.  I still have hope for his turn around.  I like that he had the mobility to steal a base last night as well as attempt a stolen base the night before.  Perhaps he is healthy enough to flash the athleticism we all saw 2 years ago.

[Coach Wheels]

Royce will get more opportunities, he's safe for 2016. SWR really doesnt have a role unless he starts; don't see him as a reliever in the manner Twins use their bullpen.

Roden for Varland was a horrible and lazy trade. However, the Twins do need an upgrade at 1st base and maybe Wallner or Larnach are the LH platoon answer there to open an OF spot.

[yeahyabetcha]

1 minute ago, Coach Wheels said:

Royce will get more opportunities, he's safe for 2016. SWR really doesnt have a role unless he starts; don't see him as a reliever in the manner Twins use their bullpen.

Roden for Varland was a horrible and lazy trade. However, the Twins do need an upgrade at 1st base and maybe Wallner or Larnach are the LH platoon answer there to open an OF spot.

It was more like Roden for France, not Varland 

[tony&rodney]

Pittsburgh, Seattle, and maybe New York Yankees among a few others (Milwaukee ?) could be interested in Royce Lewis. He may have more trade value than it seems. 

Austin Martin just seems like a late bloomer as a utility player if he can progress defensively.

Roden is out until February. Varland is gone and he ain't coming back. 

The Twins are unstable. 

[Mahoning]

Do the Twins show any evidence of having a plan?

[dogsday]

I doubt Woods Richardson is in any danger. 1-2 of Lopez, Ryan, Ober are probably gone this winter. Zebby, Fiesta, Abel, Bradley, Woods Richardson,???...pick 3-4 as needed for your opening day roster and the rest become 6, 7 and 8 on the depth chart.

[mikelink45]

SWR is interesting when I compare his era with Festa, Ober, and Matthews we could make a case that he should replace them.  It always seems like he is singled out among starters but he has accumulated 1.5 WAR this year and 2 last year.  I do not see him as a really good pitcher, but on a team with only Ryan leading the way in the rotation, he is adequate.  

I hope one of the young guys you listed beat out Roden and I hope we see more OF hitting - not sure Wallner and Larnach are really the answers there or 1B or DH.  

I don't see Royce leaving or the team giving up on him.  We struggled through a lot of down years with Buxton but waited out health and got the star we wanted.  I see Royce on the same path. 

[h2oface]

What quotes from Lewis exactly? Is it a secret? You mention it twice with no specifics. Why? 

[Brandon]

Woods-Richardson is here until 2027 or more likely 2028 since he is cost effective. He hasn’t pitched himself out of a job.  
 

walner should have a spot I. The lineup either DH/ 1B /RF.  His power plays. Hopefully his average goes back to .270 range.  
 

Larnarch is a bubble guy.  But I see him more as a midseason trade candidate when another team needs a low cost bat.  
 

I hope Lewis turns it around.  I don’t have anything to add on him.

[TopGunn#22]

There's a LONG list of Twins who are on already AT make or break status.  These guys are running out of runway.

Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner:  Now that Roden and Outman are in-house and both are far superior defensive players, not to mention ALSO LH hitting OF's,  Larnach and Waller could be traded this off season.  Both have tantalized with the bat, but neither, especially Wallner, can seem to show any kind of consistency  or put together an entire season.  The only way I see one of them on this team next year is if they learn how to play 1B, or Alan Roden is traded once he proves he's healthy.  

Eddie Julien:  He's no longer a viable 2B (and I would suggest he never was).  Luke Keaschall is there with Brooks Lee and Cody Clemens ahead of Eddie.  Clemens is also a better 1B than Julien.  I can see Julien being traded this winter as well.  His BBTV has sunk to 4.2.  Throw Jose Miranda on this scrap heap as well.  

Austin Martin and Cody Clemens could be a versatile and decent bench in 2026. 

The only future SWR has with the Twins is as a long reliever.  He's a trade candidate as well if another team needs a back end SP.  The SP lineup is just too deep for SWR now.  

Zebby Matthews & David Festa.  These guys aren't going anywhere unless the opportunity to acquire a catcher like Kyle Teel or one of the Quero's (Edgar or Jefferson) presents itself and the White Sox or Brewers demanded one of them.  But it's frustrating to see Matthews (and Festa before his injury) flash the kind of stuff they have but lose command batter to batter and then give up a 2-run homer to tie the game like Zebby did last night.  Sooner, not later, these 2 guys better start figuring it out.

With Kalen Culpepper zooming toward a major league debut, it will be interesting to see what happens with Royce Lewis.  Tony&rodney listed several teams who may be interested in Lewis and I'll add Boston (if they can't re-sign Bregman) and maybe even the L.A. Dodgers as the only player Lewis seems to be healthier than is Max Muncy.  

After the trade deadline purge, it was clear to me that more moves were going to happen this winter.  There should be a lot of moves yet to come.  I wish I had more confidence in Falvey.  

 

[Otaknam]

2 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

Royce will get more opportunities, he's safe for 2016. SWR really doesnt have a role unless he starts; don't see him as a reliever in the manner Twins use their bullpen.

Roden for Varland was a horrible and lazy trade. However, the Twins do need an upgrade at 1st base and maybe Wallner or Larnach are the LH platoon answer there to open an OF spot.

Wallner or Larnach trying first makes sense, given the glut of lefty hitting outfielders in the system and their lackluster season offensively. But the fact that neither one has yet played first in this lost season, where the team has no apparent first base option, tells me the team has no plans to try it. 

[Whitey333]

Im expecting more moves this off season.  Im pretty confident Pablo Lopez and his 21.5 million owed him each of the next two years will be gone.  I think Ryan gets traded as well as Jeffers and a few others mainly to dump salary and get cheaper players with more team control.  Lewis?  I'd he had a great night Friday but those are way too few and far between.  But after all it took Buxton 10 years to regularly stay on the field and produce.  Lots of questions this off season again.  Yet we have the same failed leaders in Falvey and Baldelli in charge of this.  Makes no sense.

[LambchoP]

They need to clear some dead weight from the OF. Wallner's power is intriguing, but he strikes out way too much and you can't justify a .200 BA for an everyday player. Larnach has looked a bit better at the plate but is terrible defensively. Maybe if he can learn first base he could be a platoon option. Both Roden and Outman may be good defensively, but it is clear they cannot hit. And they're both LH hitters. J

We already have Keirsey who is basically the same player. I'd give CF to Buck, LF to Martin and sign a RH OF bat to platoon with Larnach in RF. Everyone else can go. Hopefully guys like Gonzalez, E Rodriguez, Rosario and Jenkins aren't too far away.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Abel to start today. Urena DFA. Abel’s performance the rest of the way could have a lot to do with what happens to SWA. 

[bunsen82]

You do an article about make or break players and pick 3 players that aren’t make or break. This year was Rodens first taste of MLB, he will get another year to show if he can adjust. SWR has been a very solid pitcher for the Twins. He is an excellent back end starter/depth starter that can come in and give you above average results. The kid just keeps trying to improve his stuff. Lewis still gets at minimum another year. 
 

Gasper Martin Julien should have been the ones you picked. 

[jmlease1]

While I'm unenthusiastic about him, Roden isn't at a crossroads yet: he's cheap and has options. Larnach is in more trouble with the Twins as a poor defending platoon bat who hits RHP well but not exceptionally well, while being helpless against LHP. Larnach is also getting more expensive and while he should be affordable, seems unlikely with this ownership. Roden has flunked his first try at MLB, but I suspect he'll get another chance, especially if he shows he could handle CF as needed. Not saying that's the right move, just more likely. 

Martin is in much more trouble than Lewis; Martin hasn't looked good at any position defensively (I'm still surprised at how much he's struggled in the OF) and he's not hitting. I've owned property on Martin Island for a long time, and I'm increasingly ready to sell. Lewis needs to hit better, but the Twins aren't going to give up on him yet; the upside is still high and he's looking quite good defensively. The only risk with Lewis' status is his price tag is going up.

I'm also not too worried about SWR, who may not be more than a back-end rotation guy, he certainly can fill that role and has shown an ability to make adjustments when he struggles. Seems unlikely they're giving up on him because he lost a bunch of time due to illness.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The Twins are filled with players who are near make or break status.  

Roden getting hurt was really terrible, but mostly for the Twins.  Now they have an outfielder who is a good fielder that they won’t know about until next year.  Could be a solid improvement on Larnach, but we can’t know yet. They’re not going to cut ties with him because he is the return for Varland.  

SWR gets a bad rap because he isn’t flashy but he quietly has been as effective as anyone but Ryan and Lopez over the last two years.  If he doesn’t stick in the rotation, long relief could be a good option.  Goodness knows we need relief arms.

Lewis is a mess.  One problem is that he still thinks that he is a star.  He might be someday, but now is not yet that time.  His talent is tantalizing, but the production has been disastrous over the past year.  They won’t cut him loose because they haven’t given up on him and nobody is pushing him out of a job — YET.

Of the other guys out there, I think Martin and Clemons have played themselves into bench jobs next year.  They are flexible (but just ok) defensively and can hit enough to make themselves relevant.  Not perfect, but not bad either. 

On the “probably already out of the Twins’ plans” wagon. . . . certainly Miranda, and likely Julien — although his bat (his only tool) seems to be showing a little more life this time around. 

In the “I’m worried about their future” category is Brooks Lee, who needs to figure it out with the bat; Matt Wallner, who needs to get a little more consistency so that people will get off his back (look at his OPS!); and Trevor Larnach, who would just like to improve enough to be Matt Wallner.  

On the pitching side there are lots of arms who have a lot to prove, but with the complete gaping hole that is the bullpen, several of the non-starting rotation winning pitchers will likely slot there.  That;s definitely not going to get sorted out until spring. 

Questions. . . . Questions. .. .Questions.  Let’s hope that we find some answers. 

 

[rdehring]

I don't understand how you can even consider having Roden on this list.  You state he hasn't shown 'fleeting glimpses' of offense in his career.  Did you bother to look at what he did the past two years, mostly at AA and AAA?  If you had you would see a player who had an average around .300 or higher with around a .400 OBP and high .800's OPS.  Had he been in the Twins organization everyone would be screaming he should be called up.  So after roughly 100 big league at bats, that included changing teams, he has failed.  I just don't get how anyone can say that.

Will agree with SWR.  I can see one of the three young Twins starters being in next year's rotation.  See another in late inning relief and a third traded.  Hopefully for a late inning reliever.  Personally, see Matthews best suited for a late relief role and SWR being the player traded.  What will happen is anyone's guess.  [edit. this assumes none of Lopez, Ryan or Ober are traded.]

Will agree with those above who believe Royce has more time to return to the player he can be.  Hopefully, he remains healthy for the next month plus and has a healthy off-season to prepare for 2026.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

35 minutes ago, rdehring said:

I don't understand how you can even consider having Roden on this list.  You state he hasn't shown 'fleeting glimpses' of offense in his career.  Did you bother to look at what he did the past two years, mostly at AA and AAA?  If you had you would see a player who had an average around .300 or higher with around a .400 OBP and high .800's OPS.  Had he been in the Twins organization everyone would be screaming he should be called up.  So after roughly 100 big league at bats, that included changing teams, he has failed.  I just don't get how anyone can say that.

Will agree with SWR.  I can see one of the three young Twins starters being in next year's rotation.  See another in late inning relief and a third traded.  Hopefully for a late inning reliever.  Personally, see Matthews best suited for a late relief role and SWR being the player traded.  What will happen is anyone's guess.  [edit. this assumes none of Lopez, Ryan or Ober are traded.]

Will agree with those above who believe Royce has more time to return to the player he can be.  Hopefully, he remains healthy for the next month plus and has a healthy off-season to prepare for 2026.

 

I think you’re probably right on the three young starters if Abel and Bradley show something this year because then we will have a surplus to trade from. I personally like Mathews in the rotation; I think he has the highest upside of the three. I think between him and Festa one is in the rotation and the other one should get the first audition as a closer. I really think we should think about SWR as a late inning relief arm. He strikes me as a guy whose fastball isn’t good enough to be a long-term starter but who’s fastball could tick up 2 or 3 mph in the bullpen and become a real weapon ala Jax. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I really think we should think about SWR as a late inning relief arm. He strikes me as a guy whose fastball isn’t good enough to be a long-term starter but who’s fastball could tick up 2 or 3 mph in the bullpen and become a real weapon ala Jax. 

I was thinking long relief, but if he could add a little oomph, he has a nice arsenal for short relief.  Rather than blowing them away, he could have more weapons.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

By the way, I also agree with you on Alan  Roden. Way too early to consider giving up on him and his MiLB track record is stellar. I think people want to put him down because they see him as the return for Varland, the beloved successful local boy. I don’t think a lot of posters here are giving Roden a real chance. And, by the way, the return for Varland is Rojas, a 21 year-old left-handed starter just moved up to AAA. Roden and France were the additions to even out value.  Toronto got the best player out of the four and the worst, we got numbers two and three with the potential upside that one of those two will be as good as or better than Varland. Frankly, it was kind of a classic baseball value trade for both teams given that Toronto is a contender and we are not. I still wouldn’t have given up Varland myself, I would’ve made him the closer, but I think the idea that we somehow got the wrong end of the trade is just not correct from a baseball perspective. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I was thinking long relief, but if he could add a little oomph, he has a nice arsenal for short relief.  Rather than blowing them away, he could have more weapons.  

That’s also my thinking on SWR. I think we’ve seen enough to know that it is unlikely he is going to be a starting pitcher that can go more than two times through the lineup on a regular basis. That means he slots in as the number four or number five in a quality rotation. I think a quality late ending reliever has more value than your number five starter, so I think it might be worth seeing if SWR can be that late in relief weapon. We also now have some significant starting pitching depth so it would be a good time to give this a try. All this goes out the window of course if we trade our established starting pitching. I hope we don’t.

[rdehring]

13 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think you’re probably right on the three young starters if Abel and Bradley show something this year because then we will have a surplus to trade from. I personally like Mathews in the rotation; I think he has the highest upside of the three. I think between him and Festa one is in the rotation and the other one should get the first audition as a closer. I really think we should think about SWR as a late inning relief arm. He strikes me as a guy whose fastball isn’t good enough to be a long-term starter but who’s fastball could tick up 2 or 3 mph in the bullpen and become a real weapon ala Jax. 

Won't disagree that Mathews probably has the highest upside.  Just had a thought that he also may be best suited for that late inning relief role.  Expect his 96-98mph heater would get another tick or two in late inning relief.  Good news is that between this year's trio and another three or four guys on the verge the Twins should have wonderful starting depth next year.  Expect they will need to use some of it in the bullpen, or in a trade for the bullpen. 

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

What quotes from Lewis exactly? Is it a secret? You mention it twice with no specifics. Why? 

I saw this today:

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

5 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I saw this today:

 

Ugh.  He had a signing bonus of $6.725M, plus the roughly $2.5M he's earned (maybe?) last year and this year.  If he really is that worried about his counting stats and the impact they may have on future earnings, then he needs to keep his mouth shut about it.  The problem is that he thinks he's a star (he isn't yet at least), but he hasn't figured out yet where he sits in the pecking order.  He's also a fool if he thinks that not changing the way he's unsuccessfully doing things is going to lead to better anything.  Get some perspective.  Not impressive Mr. Lewis.  Not impressive at all. 

[David Maro]

Its time to realize that the list is far greater for this team. We could come up with a number of issues for every player on the roster. The bigger issue is the manager and coaches in my opinion. 

You brought up SWR as a player who needs to show his worth. Maybe its time for Maki to show his worth. With SP at a premium because of injuries they will need 7 or 8. You will more than likely see Ryan traded at the winter meeting because he is not going to pitch through a rebuild.

The OF has been a mess for years now and doesn't look much better next year. If Buxton goes down at anytime Martin is a liability. Both corners are a revolving doors with no one wanting to say I got this. They had Bader who handled LF great and could move to CF when needed. But chose to trade him away for a prospect years out.

Lewis has become the new Buxton in the organization hurt for half the season or more. With the new plan that seems to be coming does anyone think they will sign him to a Buxton type deal. Also does anyone think Lewis is looking to sign such a deal. I think he himself wants to win not be on a team years out.

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

 Trevor Larnach’s arbitration of around $5m is seen as untenable. 

Twenty-six Larnachs—imagine it.
Payroll balloons to a paltry $130 million,
2026 and broke before spring.
So, yes—ship Trevor out.
Value near zero, I know.
But don’t you dare say it’s the money.
Fans hear that line, it cuts deep.
No—his bat never bloomed, his glove weaker still.
Even MLB minimum feels heavy.
And that hurts.
Him, the team, us—
all of us, left holding the tune.

[PatPfund]

Lewis's quotes say more about the management of the team than himself. The Twins fired most of the coaching staff, and dumped nearly half the MLB roster. The Pohlads showed the fans a future with new owners, then took it away (which I don't really care about, but others do). It made sense to keep Rocco around if new owners were coming so they could hire their own guy, but if that change isn't coming, then somebody needs to go to signify (and more importantly implement) change. Rocco lost this team last year, the guy doing the clubhouse half of his job (Correa) is gone, and it is time to move on from his dry, boring, disconnected from the players routine. Maybe even hire someone who doesn't take 6 years to figure out players should take defensive drills together in Spring Training.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Ugh.  He had a signing bonus of $6.725M, plus the roughly $2.5M he's earned (maybe?) last year and this year.  If he really is that worried about his counting stats and the impact they may have on future earnings, then he needs to keep his mouth shut about it.  The problem is that he thinks he's a star (he isn't yet at least), but he hasn't figured out yet where he sits in the pecking order.  He's also a fool if he thinks that not changing the way he's unsuccessfully doing things is going to lead to better anything.  Get some perspective.  Not impressive Mr. Lewis.  Not impressive at all. 

Agreed. 

Always hurt. Won't switch positions. Won't take coaching. Not good for a year. He really is not a team guy, and he's not a star that allows others to ignore that.