BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[LewFordLives]

Am I angry, yes. Am I shocked, no. This front office has shown us time and time again that they won't pay relievers.

Three years from now we'll view this trade the same way we view the Pressley trade.

Yet another lousy day to be a Twins fan. Thank you Mr. Falvey!

[RaoulDuke]

11 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Next up - Correa to Houston for a flying squirrel and some baseline chalk.

Is it a rally squirrel?

[Danchat]

1 minute ago, bunsen82 said:

We turned Ryan into #1 pitcher.

Right, but he's the exception to the rest of the entire pitching pipeline that has failed to turn water into wine - that is, guys who profile as #4/5 starters into #1/2s. This will be an A++++ trade if they have another Joe Ryan on their hands but how can we make that assumption? Not to mention Ryan was acquired for 2 months of a DH rental (in addition to another AAA starter!), Abel is the only thing we'll have from the Duran trade in the next 3 years before Tait possibly comes up. They had better be right about Abel being that good.

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Have the Twins ever paid that for a reliever? Even a closer?

Have we ever had a reliever close to Duran’s caliber? We paid out Perkins 

[cmoss84]

Liriano trade. Liriano trade. Liriano trade.

That's what I keep telling myself. 

Great trade! These guys will both be stars!

*tequila *

[USAFChief]

Just now, KirbyDome89 said:

 

Tait's assigned value, even if we assume it's correct, is still incredibly volatile. 

Its worse than volatile. Its pulled from a hat. 

...

I assign Tait 37 gold stars, Duran 700. Abel 3568.9.

Thats equally as valid. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Vanimal46 said:

Have we ever had a reliever close to Duran’s caliber? We paid out Perkins 

I 100 percent believe money is a huge part of the deal. 

[cmoss84]

Just now, Vanimal46 said:

Have we ever had a reliever close to Duran’s caliber? We paid out Perkins 

Nathan. Aggy.

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

To me this shows just how badly they got screwed.  At the deadline the seller should have the leverage and especially since he had 2 and half year left.  The Twins couldn't even get throw in's in this deal? This whole deal makes them look weak IMO.

If Abel really is good (mid rotation) a lot of us will have to eat our words, but he needs to work out because the odds of a high school\young catcher with good numbers at A ball working out is like 10% or something.  It is super high risk. Again maybe Twins scouts see him translating well to higher levels, but I feel like we have been on that hope train before and these young guys at these lower levels never quite make it.

When you have the prize of the deadline it seems odd for them to take on this level of risk to me.  I just can't help, but question this trade.

Saying all that I haven't watched Abel pitch nor Tait play.  Hopefully they impress right away otherwise it feels like the Twins got worse today and not better.  They don't need more 5th starter type arms or catchers who just aren't quite good enough.

[cmoss84]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I 100 percent believe money is a huge part of the deal. 

We are a dumpster fire. Move us to Canada and get it over with.

[RaoulDuke]

Does Philly get the stadium entrance graphics in the deal?  Or can we walk Louie Varland out to en fuego thing.

[NotAboutWinning]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Why would that matter? 

Budget. All of their arbitration players will get a bump. They may pay that for a starting pitcher or a catcher. I don't see them putting that money into the bullpen... Even for Duran 😕

[AceWrigley]

3 minutes ago, RaoulDuke said:

Is it a rally squirrel?

 

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

Much like Jorge Lopez and Matt Capps?  (Ramos was a Stud)  

Relievers can be tricky.  On the flip side, Ryan Pressley trade didn't work out well.

When was Jorge Lopez and Matt Capps ever a top RP in baseball?

[randy_moist]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Does Falvey pay you by the word or by the post?

Disagreeing with you doesn't make someone a sycophant.

[Riverbrian]

This is what selling looks like. My feathers are unruffled. I'm more pissed about the actual need for selling.

Sellers sell... This is what it looks like. 

If the Twins were buyers... they were not going to give up Jenkins. I'm not shocked that the Phillies hung on to Painter with both fists and I wouldn't be surprised if the Mariners hung on to Ford and the Dodgers hang on to Rushing. This is what selling looks like.

Now... What's next.

To win this trade... we will find out later but the Twins have to be the ones who win it. 

Trades are not won or lost when the deal is made. 

Trades are won or lost after the trade. 

If the Twins want to win this trade. Prove you all wrong. They need to develop the players they chose to acquire. 

Let's see if they can develop when it hasn't been a strong suit. 

 

[chopper0080]

Yeah…very few of you are factoring in the money savings in this deal. Saving 1 mil this year and 4+ mil next year is great for the family.

[bunsen82]

6 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Right, but he's the exception to the rest of the entire pitching pipeline that has failed to turn water into wine - that is, guys who profile as #4/5 starters into #1/2s. This will be an A++++ trade if they have another Joe Ryan on their hands but how can we make that assumption? Not to mention Ryan was acquired for 2 months of a DH rental (in addition to another AAA starter!), Abel is the only thing we'll have from the Duran trade in the next 3 years before Tait possibly comes up. They had better be right about Abel being that good.

Ryan came in with just a fastball. I am amazed at the dislike on this board. 

[Maybe Next Year]

Once again the Twins get screwed - please, please, please get rid of Falvey and Baldelli!

[JADBP]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

Huh. I guess that's the cost of a top tier catching prospect, even though he's not even 19 years old yet. Abel is at least major-league ready, the frangraphs write-up on him paints him as more likely to end up in the bullpen... he was at least averaging almost 6 innings per outing at AAA. He has to give the Twins value as a starter in the next couple seasons to make the deal worth it before Tait contributes. If he ends up as a reliever, then even with around 5 years of control of him is that worth it for 2.5 of Duran?

I tell you what, if I'm a Phillies fan, I do this trade 100 times out of 100.

Oh, and the AJ Pierzynski trade lives on. Pierzynski -> Liriano -> Escobar -> Duran -> Abel/Tait.

Huh?  I’d do this trade 1000 times out of 100 if I am Dumbrowski!  Falvey was again Falveyed!  

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, exeoud said:

A catcher who's 3+ years away and a backend of the rotation guy. Get this FO out of here

Edit: Mick Abel's best FIP in the minor leagues is 4.04

 

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Wow lots of hate for a very good trade. This was the exact haul discussed many times.  I would even say an overpay. Abel is a much better pitcher than SWR. 

The most misleading take a human could come up with!!! 4.04 peak FIP indeed.

2015 AAA 74 IP 54 H 2.31 ERA 32 BB 82 K Dominating. You cannot get a limitation to 54 hits in 74 innings without having dominating stuff. The 82 K in 74 IP says the same thing.

Tait’s bat projects well, he’s forced a move to high A at age 18 and hitting in the .290s there.

[CRF]

For me...this makes the raising of the white flag official. As if the outcome of this season was in any doubt. 

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

The trade calculator actually is higher, but they are only giving Abel a value around 5-6.  Abel has the stuff to be a #1 or #2. His raw stuff is much better than Ryan. I can only imagine what the trade calculator valued that deal at. Ultimately the value comes down to the players, and we got 2 good prospects in this deal.

i do agree young catchers tend to have a lot more variability as they rise the ranks, but what he is doing as a 17 year old is very impressive. 

How many times have you watched Abel pitch in person, live?

I won't give you my experience but refer to others instead.

Among the people who have I will use a couple names. Keith Law does not have him among any top 100 lists and believes he has good stuff to become a solid middle relief pitcher and maybe late game at some point. Abel is wild and also needs another pitch.

Eric Longenhagen, about as respected a name as there is among prospect evaluators, has Abel as #13 in the Phillies system and said the Phillies would likely trade him because he needs time to develop. He ranks him as a 40 which is the same as he ranks Travis Adams and Pierson Ohl. Fangraphs has a topp 100 and top 200. Abel doesn't make it.

Nobody can definitively say what will happen to any player in baseball. Judge is out with an injury. Ohtani is just back pitching after missing considerable time on the mound due to injury even while he dominates as  a DH. 

Abel was an extreme stretch. I have no idea where the Twins get their information. We do know for fact, because it was precisely stated, that Falvey tried to get Paddack in 2019 and was elated when he traded for him. Perhaps Falvey knew someone at Jesuit High School that turned him on to Mick Abel. Jesuit has good baseball and good coaches in addition to being a fine school. Trading an elite closer with 2+ years of control for Abel and an A ball catcher reeks of incompetence right now. I will grant anyone their 2% odds that this winds up ok, but at the very least another day of negotiation across baseball clubs was warranted. Or .... are the Twins so poorly regarded by the other GM's that they are bullied or worse, ignored. Doesn't seem possible.

[T.O.]

Twins have done such a stellar job bringing up prospects and rookies. Can't wait.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

[bunsen82]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

To me this shows just how badly they got screwed.  At the deadline the seller should have the leverage and especially since he had 2 and half year left.  The Twins couldn't even get throw in's in this deal? This whole deal makes them look weak IMO.

If Abel really is good (mid rotation) a lot of us will have to eat our words, but he needs to work out because the odds of a high school\young catcher with good numbers at A ball working out is like 10% or something.  It is super high risk. Again maybe Twins scouts see him translating well to higher levels, but I feel like we have been on that hope train before and these young guys at these lower levels never quite make it.

When you have the prize of the deadline it seems odd for them to take on this level of risk to me.  I just can't help, but question this trade.

Saying all that I haven't watched Abel pitch nor Tait play.  Hopefully they impress right away otherwise it feels like the Twins got worse today and not better.  They don't need more 5th starter type arms or catchers who just aren't quite good enough.

For trade value purposes in the offseason Duran would be worth around 20 points. The calculator is also quite volatile. In either case we will be getting more prospects and we need to hit on several of them. 

[LastOnePicked]

22 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Next up - Correa to Houston for a flying squirrel and some baseline chalk.

I like the deal. We could really use a rally squirrel. What does Fangraphs say about his speed and acorn-gathering skills?

[Wedman13]

24 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What do you think he's actually going to make next season? Honestly....

Fair question.  Next year, not terrible at all I think 5-6m.  I hate to say, I don't think it matters, because we'll be bad again in 2026.  Yes ,'team control' in 2027 but thats when we have to extend an again closer for big $, or commit to trading.

hes my favorite twin, but i think the trade is solid 

[Dman]

Trade Rumors seems to feel the deal is solid for the Twins.  Still Tait is no sure thing to stay behind the plate and Abel needs development for his stuff to translate.  Let's hope the Twins Dev teams are up to the task.

[KirbyDome89]

9 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Budget. All of their arbitration players will get a bump. They may pay that for a starting pitcher or a catcher. I don't see them putting that money into the bullpen... Even for Duran 😕

They're also shedding contracts. $8M gets you Chris Paddack. We know how that worked out. I don't believe for one second there' was no room in the budget for Jhoan Duran.